WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Hulk' a Smash with $55M Opening!; Second Weekend of 'Panda' Good For Second Place with $35M; $32M 'Happening' a Surprise Hit for Shyamalan!
by Steve Mason
SATURDAY 10 p.m. (Pacific): I am told that The Incredible Hulk (Universal) was down slightly from Friday-to-Saturday for a likely $20 million. That will probably translate to $55 million for the three-day, which is much stronger than Universal had been hoping for. One source told me that "mid-40s and long legs" would be a triumph. If this number holds, The Incredible Hulk will be the all-time 11th-best opening for a comic book adaptation:
ALL-TIME TOP 20 OPENINGS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. Spider-Man 3 — $151.11 million
2. Spider-Man — $114.84 million
3. X-Men: The Last Stand — $102.75 million
4. Iron Man — $98.61 million
5. Spider-Man 2 — $88.15 million
6. X2: X-Men United — $85.55 million
7. 300 — $70.88 million
8. Hulk (2003) — $62.12 million
9. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer — $60.23 million
10. Fantastic Four — $56.06 million
11. The Incredible Hulk — $55 million (Estimated)
12. X-Men — $54.47 million
13. Batman Forever — $52.78 million
14. Superman Returns — $52.53 million
15. Men in Black II — $52.14 million
16. Men in Black — $51.06 million
17. Batman Begins — $48.74 million
18. Batman Returns — $45.68 million
19. Ghost Rider — $45.38 million
20. Batman & Robin — $42.87M
That is less than 2003's Ang Lee version of Hulk, but it is the all-time sixth-best opening for a non-sequel comic book adaptation, which is impressive. It is also the all-time best opening for Edward Norton and director Louis Leterrier.
Kung Fu Panda, the latest animated film from Dreamworks, was predictably strong, grabbing $15 million on Saturday, and the Paramount release should post a $35.5 million second weekend.
Undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the weekend has been The Happening (20th Century Fox). Studio execs all over town were calling for an opening in the high teens. Instead, I am told that the M. Night Shyamalan thriller may have scored another $11.5 million on Saturday, and it should finish the weekend with about $32 million, far higher than competing studios were predicting. It appears as though The Happening will post the all-time third-best Shyamalan opening.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $20 million, $5,706 PTA, $41.03 million cume
2. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) — $15 million, $3,627 PTA, $108.67 million cume
3. NEW The Happening (Fox) — $11.5 million, $3,851 PTA, $24.5 million cume
4. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) — $7.32 million, $2,113 PTA, $65.13 million cume
5. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $5.29 million, $1,391 PTA, $270.72 million cume
6. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $4.6 million, $1,459 PTA $117.87 million cume
7. Iron Man (Paramount) — $5.29 million, $1,391 PTA, $293.84 million cume
8. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $1.57 million, $656 PTA, $44.27 million cume
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $1.18 million, $515 PTA, $130.8 million cume
10. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $741,000, $521 PTA, $75.39 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $55 million, $15,692 PTA, $55 million cume
2. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) — $35.5 million, $8,583 PTA, $119.17 million cume
3. NEW The Happening (Fox) — $32.32 million, $10,824 PTA, $32.32 million cume
4. You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Sony) — $17.14 million, $4,946 PTA, $69.53 million cume
5. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $13.15 million, $3,457 PTA, $274.93 million cume
6. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $11.27 million, $3,573 PTA $121 million cume
7. Iron Man (Paramount) — $5.1 million, $2,122 PTA, $297.39 million cume
8. The Strangers (Rogue Releasing) — $3.96 million, $1,645 PTA, $45.22 million cume
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (Disney) — $3 million, $1,300 PTA, $131.73 million cume
10. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) — $2.1 million, $1,477 PTA, $76.18 million cume
YES! Both home runs! I'm so happy I went with my gut on "The Happening". I hope it holds up over the weekend. But great news all around, especially for my backloaded April slates!
Posted by: Stev | June 13, 2008 at 11:09 PM
So, when I said 25+ or even 30 not a week ago, you probably thought I was crazy.
You know Steve, there are other numbers that you can follow and that can show you if a movie will or won't be a hit.
When a movie gets in a poll asking when will you see it, 44% Opening Weekend, you know you have a winner in your hands. The hype was there, you just could not see it, hehe, but I did.
Posted by: Alex | June 14, 2008 at 12:45 AM
I was obviously talking about The Happening in the above comment.
Posted by: Alex | June 14, 2008 at 12:45 AM
Exactly; everyone I talked to thought The Happening looked excellent. This doesn't come off as a surprise to me at all; I'd have been surprised if Steve was right. However, I expect it will drop like a rock on Saturday when everyone sees how awful it is.
Posted by: Squirrel | June 14, 2008 at 03:52 AM
It really doesn't suprise me that TH made that much actually. I told you that the whole Friday the 13th gimmick was working for it and the fact that it's Shyamalan’s first R rated flick could have also drawed alot of intrest. I do beleive though that after today it will fall like a rock because from what I heard the movie really isn't any good,but I still going to try and check it out.
Posted by: wrongturn687 | June 14, 2008 at 06:13 AM
Seems that the Happening got a nice Fri 13th lift. I know several people who opted for Happening over Hulk at the last minute. I'm guessing Hulk and Panda will get big boost over Father's Day. My boys are taking me to see Hulk on Sunday.
Posted by: JasonG | June 14, 2008 at 07:38 AM
BOM is going significantly higher on TIH, just over $21M.
Posted by: Stev | June 14, 2008 at 09:13 AM
Hello all,
I am very happy for Shyamalan. There is no question that he rubs a lot of studio people the wrong way, and that has something to do with the negative buzz that this film received.
My opinion has always been that he is extraordinarily talented, and I say good for him.
Also, BOM has posted, and I have published the same above. My Friday number often needs to be adjusted on Saturday morning. HULK now looks like $55M for the 3-day and HAPPENING looks like $33M. Good weekend all the way around.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | June 14, 2008 at 10:40 AM
With a $21 million opening for The Incredible Hulk, why do you think it's only going to make another $34 million in 2 days? The first Hulk dropped about 11% on Saturday. With people actually like this film, I don't see that "happening". I think it can do at least $23-$25 million on Saturday. And then have a 30% drop on Sunday, which would put it in the $62-$64 million range.
Posted by: Jeremy | June 14, 2008 at 12:16 PM
Hey Steve, don't you think that The Happening will be very frontloaded on Friday because of Friday the 13th? I mean, The Grudge 2 opened on Friday the 13th, and it made $10 million on Friday, but only $20 million for the weekend.
Posted by: J.I. | June 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM
I don't think Shyamalan-Welles comparison is entirely valid (commercially, because that's what we're talking about here, right?).
First, The Sixth Sense was his third film, not first (although his first major studio release).
Second, more to the point, The Sixth Sense was both critical and commercial success and all four movies Shyamalan made after that were profitable or highly profitable movies, with Lady in The Water being his first real misstep. If Citizen Kane was smash box-office hit, I don't think Welles would have trouble finding money for his next movies.
Posted by: Perf | June 14, 2008 at 01:07 PM
"Hey Steve, don't you think that The Happening will be very frontloaded on Friday because of Friday the 13th? I mean, The Grudge 2 opened on Friday the 13th, and it made $10 million on Friday, but only $20 million for the weekend."
That had nothing to do with the "Friday the 13th" release date; it was a sequel, which automatically makes it more front-loaded than an original work like The Happening. I doubt any film has ever really benefited from the "Friday the 13th" release date; maybe the first film that ever tried it, but it's been done to death now.
Posted by: Squirrel | June 15, 2008 at 04:19 AM
panda is not 35.5 million this weekend, it's 33.5
Posted by: Abhishek | June 16, 2008 at 03:52 PM