• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

June 29, 2008

FINAL TRACKING FOR 5-DAY INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND: 'Hancock' Targets $100M-$110M; 'WALL-E' Headed for $58M-$63M; 'Wanted' Should Reach $40M-$45M!

by Steve Mason

Hollywood is gearing for what is certain to be a spectacular five-day 4th of July holiday moviegoing period with two strong holdovers and a brand new PG-13-rated superhero picture starring the world's biggest box office draw.

Early reviews for Hancock (Sony), featuring mega-star Will Smith, are coming in very negative, with just a 31 percent Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes as of Sunday night, but it hardly matters. This Peter Berg-directed superhero flick for the TMZ/Perez Hilton generation is scoring big in industry tracking, and, although I am lowering my box-office prediction for the movie, the downgrade has more to do with positive word-of-mouth for WALL-E (Disney) and Wanted (Universal) than with the spotty early reaction from critics.

Hancock will, without question, be the 12th $100 million movie of Smith's career (including the animated Shark's Tale). That will move him back into a fourth-place tie with Harrison Ford, whose Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) is still playing strongly in theaters and will likely crack the $300 million mark sometime on Monday.

MOST $100 MILLION HITS IN A CAREER (Including animated films and excluding cameos)
1. Tom Hanks — 15
2. Tom Cruise — 14
3. Eddie Murphy — 13
4. Will Smith — 12 (Includes Hancock)
4. Harrison Ford — 12
6. Jim Carrey — 11
6. Robin Williams — 11
8. Mel Gibson — 10
9. Matt Damon — 9
10. Bruce Willis — 8
10. Jack Nicholson — 8

Will Smith, however, is about to do something unprecedented, a feat never done by either of the Toms (Hanks or Cruise). Hancock will be his eighth consecutive $100 million grossing blockbuster. Hanks and Cruise both have career-best streaks of seven films with $100 million. Here's the historic roll that Smith is on:

Men in Black II (2002) — $52.14 million opening, $190.41 million cume
Bad Boys II (2003) — $46.52 million opening, $138.6 million cume
I, Robot (2004) — $52.17 million opening, $144.8 million cume
Shark Tale (2004) — $47.6 million opening, $160.86 million cume
Hitch (2005) — $43.12 million opening, $179.49 million cume
The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) — $26.54 million opening, $163.56 million cume
I Am Legend (2007) — $77.21 million opening, $256.39 million cume
Hancock (2008) — $110 million opening (Projected), TBD cume

I am predicting $100 million-$110 million for Hancock in its first five days, Wednesday-through-Sunday. Working against Hancock are soft reviews and the fact that it is a new character not based on a comic book character (like Iron Man) or a toy line (like last year's Transformers). Stiff competition from holdovers WALL-E and Wanted, however, is the biggest factor limiting Hancock’s upside. The truth is, anything in the $100 million range for the five-day 4th of July holiday is a terrific outcome for Sony.

Coming off the third-best opening for a Pixar animated film with $62.5 million or so, I am predicting a five-day of $58 million-$63 million for WALL-E. That would give the Chaplinesque little robot a 10-day domestic cume of about $140 million. Meanwhile, the Angelina Jolie action picture Wanted should add $40 million-$45 million Wednesday-through-Sunday for a new cume of just over $100 million.

If my predictions are close, then the Top 3 films for this year's five-day Independence Day holiday will sell about $210 million in tickets over the period, compared to the $193 million or so that Transformers, Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard combined for last July 4-8. That would represent a 7 percent increase year-over-year.

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 11:28 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef00e5537b80978833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference FINAL TRACKING FOR 5-DAY INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND: 'Hancock' Targets $100M-$110M; 'WALL-E' Headed for $58M-$63M; 'Wanted' Should Reach $40M-$45M!:

Comments

ashkul88

hey mase, any word on the Dark Knight tracking?? how's it looking in comparison to Hancock and would you care to put out an estimate (+/-$25M) as to which superhero will outdo the other (in terms of BO)??

Posted by: ashkul88 | June 30, 2008 at 12:36 AM

jmo

Given that Hancock is shown to sleep on park benches and the like, I bet he trumps Bruce Wayne in the BO category.

Posted by: jmo | June 30, 2008 at 05:23 PM

Arthur

Man, I am torn. In my BO league its either this or Dark Knight + X-files, in a league ending the June 28th.

I am sure TDK will make more money in its run than Hancock, but Hancock gets 2 more weeks of earnings over TDK in this league.

Posted by: Arthur | June 30, 2008 at 05:30 PM

Dane Bramage

lol at jmo...

Hancock should kick butt regardless of the reviews. The trailers do a great job of selling the film. I want to see it, even though I'm burnt out on superhero films.

Posted by: Dane Bramage | June 30, 2008 at 05:51 PM

JackO

IAL proved that folks will be there opening weekend, even if the film itself is crap. It's the weekend after that will tell Hancock's fate.

Posted by: JackO | June 30, 2008 at 09:46 PM

salva

Hancock will do good for its for 2 weeks but once the Dark Knight opens everyone will forgot about Hancock

Posted by: salva | July 01, 2008 at 10:00 AM

Baldwin Eagle

I predict Fri-Sun opening weekend The Dark Knight will approach X-Men the Last Stand opening numbers...and probably beat Hancock's 5-day. Hancock will have a lower Friday because of the 4 of July and Saturday fall-off larger than expected.

Posted by: Baldwin Eagle | July 01, 2008 at 04:35 PM

Hancock (2008)

Hancock is very good movie I ever seen. Will Smith has done fantastic role in this film..It is enjoyable movie..There is twist in the movie where Charlize Theron turned out to be just like Hancock.

Posted by: Hancock (2008) | May 05, 2010 at 02:02 AM

jordan shoes sale

Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

Posted by: jordan shoes sale | May 26, 2010 at 02:33 AM

sterling silver belly rings

que idiota ese no creo nada ! ojala te pase a vos marica a ver como quedas !!! como alvarez martinez va quedar el asesino de goriletti !! viva la resistencia y Jose Manuel Zelaya!!!!!!! Cesar gracias a Dios no le paso nada ! Dios lo bendiga!

Posted by: sterling silver belly rings | July 08, 2010 at 05:37 AM

ethical issues in nursing

this was a really quality post.I wasn't aware of the many ripples and depth to this story until I surfed here through Google! Great job.

Posted by: ethical issues in nursing | July 11, 2010 at 11:24 PM

ethical issues in nursing

Hi Yvonne--my broiler is a separate drawer, too. I usually just cover the tray with foil before using it. I find the broiler is really handy for a lot of things--it cooks quickly, and browns stuff in a way the oven just can't. It's also great for finishing off fritattas and Spanish Tortillas (as long as your skillet is ovenproof). That way you don't have to flip it. I'm glad I made you crave . . . that's what I'm going for!

Posted by: ethical issues in nursing | July 11, 2010 at 11:26 PM

传奇世界私服

The secret of making money. Two laid-off women workers , each held a breakfast at a roadside shop , are selling buns and Camellia . A thriving business gradually , a revenue share of 30 days , allegedly due to an egg .

Posted by: 传奇世界私服 | August 16, 2010 at 09:56 AM

传奇私服

I have been reading your posts during my afternoon break, and I must admit the whole article has been very useful and very well written. I thought I would let you know that for some reason this blog does not display well in Internet Explorer 8. I wish Microsoft would stop changing their software. I have a question for you. Do you mind exchanging blog roll links? That would be really cool!

Posted by: 传奇私服 | August 19, 2010 at 06:54 AM

传奇私服

hi there, nice blog this is that you have - i am really interested in reading more of your posts,keep up the good work!

Posted by: 传奇私服 | August 30, 2010 at 06:29 AM

传奇私服

The capital is urging parents who have broken family planning policies to register their extra births

before Nov http://www.3sfz.com

Posted by: 传奇私服 | September 13, 2010 at 04:41 AM

传奇私服

Nice post. This post is different from what I read on most blog. And it have so many valuable things to learn. Thank you for your sharing.

Posted by: 传奇私服 | October 20, 2010 at 08:15 PM

传奇私服

I have to say, you picked your wods pretty well. The info you gave are well placed.

Posted by: 传奇私服 | November 02, 2010 at 08:50 PM

传奇世界私服

Hey, I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part
people lack substance but
I just wanted to make a quick comment to say GREAT blog!…..

Posted by: 传奇世界私服 | November 29, 2010 at 04:36 AM

运动鞋批发

Thx for sharing things like this information. I found this advice ideal helpful. And that is a wonderful article. Return To go over Some even more.

Posted by: 运动鞋批发 | December 04, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Pharmacy Technician test

Terrific work! This is the type of information that should be shared around the web. Shame on the search engines for not positioning this post higher!

Posted by: Pharmacy Technician test | December 06, 2010 at 12:39 AM

传奇私服

have already been visiting your blog for three days. absolutely love what you posted.

Posted by: 传奇私服 | December 11, 2010 at 01:55 AM

switch power supply

Merry Christmas! Thank you to tell us more interesting information. So nice sharing.

Posted by: switch power supply | December 26, 2010 at 05:31 AM

cna license

Keep posting stuff like this i really like it final tracking ...

Posted by: cna license | January 17, 2011 at 03:29 AM

free cna training

They said that brilliant minds think a likes. These books are the same I will recommend at any given times.

Posted by: free cna training | June 14, 2011 at 02:10 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service