FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'WALL-E' Targets $52M-$57M Opening Weekend, While Universal’s 'Wanted' Is Certain to Be the No. 1 R-Rated June Opening of All Time with a Possible $36M-$41M!
by Steve Mason
This pre-4th of July moviegoing weekend looks like it will be a spectacular success for Hollywood. Instead of films going toe-to-toe, as they did last weekend, when Get Smart (Warner Bros.) smacked down The Love Guru (Paramount) in a battle of big studio comedies, there will be something for everyone this frame.
Friday, Pixar unleashes its new, animated masterpiece, which some critics have already predicted will be the certain winner of the this year’s Oscar for animation. Everyone I know who has seen WALL-E (Disney) has raved about the film, and movie fans have a love affair with Pixar. With a perfect track record, the Pixar/Disney brand means that the movie will feature cutting edge animation married with the very best storytelling Hollywood has to offer. Not everyone gets it. One industry exec said to me this week, "I understand why pandas doing kung fu sell tickets, but what is so special about this robot?"
When Pixar puts its seal on a movie, the premise does not really matter. Whether it is talking cars, a rat who wants to be a chef, or a lonely robot, very few people have ever walked away from one of its movies disappointed.
PIXAR FILM RESUME
Toy Story (1995) — $29.1 million opening, $191.8 million cume
A Bug's Life (1998) — $33.1 million opening (First Weekend in Wide Release), $162.8 million cume
Toy Story 2 (1999) — $57.3 million opening (First Weekend in Wide Release), $245.8 million cume
Monsters Inc. (2001) — $62.5 million opening, $255.8 million cume
Finding Nemo (2003) — $70.2 million opening, $339.7 million cume
The Incredibles (2004) — $70.4 million opening, $261.4 million cume
Cars (2006) — $60.1 million opening, $244 million cume
Ratatouille (2007) — $47 million opening, $206.4 million cume
My sources tell me that tracking is phenomenal for WALL-E, and it is likely to open a notch higher than last June's Ratatouille, earning a spot in the all-time Top 10 openings for animated films. I am calling for $52 million-$57 million for the three-day and a possible $115 million-$120 million banked in its first 10 days in release, which would be a spectacular performance.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 ANIMATED OPENINGS
1. Shrek The Third — $121.6 million
2. Shrek 2 — $108 million
3. The Simpsons Movie — $74 million
4. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
5. Finding Nemo — $70.2 million
6. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $68 million
7. Monsters Inc. — $62.5 million
8. Cars — $60.1 million
9. WALL-E — $52 million-$57 million (Projected)
10. Madagascar — $47.2 million
Meanwhile, Universal has, smartly, positioned Wanted, the Angelina Jolie action film with a strong R rating, to grab a healthy number of grown-ups, especially men, this weekend. Some critics are complaining about the over-the-top violence from the remarkable director of the amazing Night Watch series, Timur Bekmambetov. Overall, however, critics love the movie, which running at 84 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night.
Hollywood executives had better learn how to pronounce Bekmambetov's name, and anyone who saw his 2004 Russian release Night Watch and its follow-up, Day Watch, would have seen this coming. Wanted is filled with startling visuals, visceral action and edge-of-your-seat thrills, and it has a great "popcorn movie" sensibility. It is fun and smart and likely to become a successful franchise for Universal. Although it lacks the spiritual underpinnings of The Matrix, it is a worthy successor to that Wachowskis Bros. classic.
Industry tracking points to the all-time best June opening for an R-rated movie topping last summer’s Knocked Up:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 R-RATED JUNE OPENINGS
1. Knocked Up — $30.69 million
2. The Happening — $30.51million
3. Total Recall — $25.53 million
4. The Rock — $25 million
5. Eraser — $24.56 million
My final prediction is for $36 million-$41 million Friday-thru-Sunday, which would make it one of the all-time top 12 best R-rated openings.
ALL-TIME BEST TOP 15 R-RATED OPENINGS
1. The Matrix Reloaded (May) — $91.77 million
2. The Passion of the Christ (February) — $83.84 million
3. 300 (March) — $70.88 million
4. Hannibal (February) — $58 million
5. 8 Mile (November) — $51.24 million
6. Matrix Revolutions (November) — $48.47 million
7. Troy (May) — $46.86 million
8. American Pie 2 (August) — $45.11 million
9. American Gangster (November) — $43.56 million
10. Red Dragon (October) — $36.54 million
11. Freddy vs. Jason (August) — $36.42 million
12. Interview with the Vampire (November) — $36.38 million
13. Gladiator (May) — $34.81 million
14. Scream 3 (February) — $34.71 million
15. Wedding Crashers (July) — $33.9 million
Wanted will also likely become the No. 3 opening in Angelina Jolie's career, solidifying her reputation as one of the few actresses who can legitimately open a movie single-handedly:
ALL-TIME TOP 10 LIVE ACTION ANGELINA JOLIE OPENINGS
1. Mr. & Mrs. Smith — $50.34 million
2. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider — $47.73 million
3. Gone in 60 Seconds — $25.33 million
4. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life — $21.78 million
5. The Bone Collector — $16.71 million
6. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow — $15.58 million
7. Alexander — $13.68 million
8. Taking Lives — $11.45 million
9. The Good Shepherd — $9.91 million
10. Pushing Tin — $3.55 million
And, James McAvoy, so good in The Last King of Scotland and Atonement, will receive a huge career boost from this one as well.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR JUNE 27-29
1. WALL-E (Disney) — $55 million
2. Wanted (Universal) — $40 million
3. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $19.5 million
4. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $12.25 million
5. The Love Guru (Paramount) — $5.9M
6. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $5.6 million
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) - $5 million
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros.) — $4.25 million
9. You Don't Mess With The Zohan (Sony) — $4 million
10. Iron Man (Paramount) — $2.75 million
No Kung Fu Panda in the Top 10 this week? It'll probably grab the #5 spot, methinks.
Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | June 25, 2008 at 11:04 PM
I see that Mason must get his tracking from RS, sorry mason but Wall-E will open much higher than that, the more reliable MTC has it tracking at 70 million opening weekend, and wanted at 34.
Posted by: John | June 25, 2008 at 11:51 PM
isn't Sex and the City one of the top r rated openers?
Posted by: tom | June 26, 2008 at 01:53 AM
No way Mase, Wall-E is an easy 70+ opener, just wait and you'll see.
Posted by: Alex | June 26, 2008 at 02:07 AM
WALL-E: $65-70 million--and headed to $250 million+.
Wanted: $35 million, maybe?
Posted by: Webster | June 26, 2008 at 05:38 AM
Yeah, Kung Fu was clearly just forgotten
Posted by: fayzer | June 26, 2008 at 06:15 AM
Didn't KF Panda open at 60.2 million putting it in the top 10? There is no way Wall-E opens with less.....I say at least 72 million and ends up around 280 million in the USA.
Wanted about 32 million
Posted by: ZapDude | June 26, 2008 at 07:02 AM
Didn't KF Panda open at 60.2 million putting it in the top 10? There is no way Wall-E opens with less.....I say at least 72 million and ends up around 280 million in the USA.
Wanted about 32 million
Posted by: ZapDude | June 26, 2008 at 07:03 AM
steve check your sorces next time you forgot about sex and the city 57 million opening and kung fu panda 60 million opening
Posted by: salva | June 26, 2008 at 08:53 AM
steve check your sorces next time you forgot about sex and the city 57 million opening and kung fu panda 60 million opening
Posted by: salva | June 26, 2008 at 08:55 AM
Sex and the City wasn't forgotten. The headline says "ALL TIME TOP 5 R-RATED JUNE OPENINGS." Sex and the City opened in May. Give Steve a break, guys.
Posted by: dranscht | June 26, 2008 at 09:23 AM
Kung Fu Panda will be #4 this weekend, unless Wall-E really sucks its audience. KFP has overtaken Hulk all week long.
And yes, KFP should in the top 10 animated openers at #9.
Posted by: Dane Bramage | June 26, 2008 at 09:30 AM
I don't think Wall-E will go much higher than KFP. I don't see 70M+. I think around $65M is about right, maybe lower. Wanted is going to break out and could top $40M, but I'll go safe with $35M.
Posted by: Stev | June 26, 2008 at 09:56 AM
Wall-e will make $85 million this weekend.
Posted by: Scott | June 26, 2008 at 11:29 AM
"Sex and the City wasn't forgotten. The headline says "ALL TIME TOP 5 R-RATED JUNE OPENINGS." Sex and the City opened in May. Give Steve a break, guys."
No, we're talking about the list of Top 15 R-Rated Openings. Sex and the City was forgotten.
However, I think Steve is right on the money with WALL-E; $70 million would equal The Incredibles, and there's no way the film is going to open that big. Still, it would be nice to see an opening close to $60 million, just so Pixar is back on track after Ratatouille underperformed.
Posted by: Squirrel | June 26, 2008 at 01:00 PM
at the very least, Wall-e will make 60mil this weekend. However, I see it going up to 75mil. The character alone is a million times more endearing than remy the rat and lightning mcqueen. As is the case with Pixar films, their films will have the strongest legs in the B.O. and play on until Labor Day despite heavy competition. I'm thinking final domestic tally of 275mil and it will make a serious run at 300mil
Posted by: jarred | June 26, 2008 at 02:47 PM
I never read Steve's column for his accuarate box office history lists. I don't think he has ever done one correctly. Going off of pure memory is great, using an actual source to back yourself up is even better. Maybe he uses BOM for a lot of his stuff, goodness knows they don't update very often, but when a couple of missing entries opened within the past 1.5 months you may want to put that in there. Great columns and early BO numbers, horrible lists.
Posted by: jl | June 26, 2008 at 06:41 PM
Scary Movie's missing from the All-Time R-Rated Opening list as well.
Posted by: Justin | June 27, 2008 at 02:32 AM
if steve is right about wall-e opening to 52, 57 i will be sick of movies opening to 50 million like sex and the city 57 and the hulk 55 and iron mans 51 2nd week if this continues this summer season is off to a rough start
Posted by: salva | June 27, 2008 at 08:17 AM
This summer season is not off to a rough start at all. This has been one of the biggest (probably the second biggest) June of all time.
Posted by: J.I. | June 27, 2008 at 09:26 AM
well look at it this way last year you had spider-man 3 151 opening. Then you had shrek 3 121 opening. Then Pirates 114 million opening 139 memorial day thats 3 movies that opened over 100 million over the summer this year you only have 1 so i would think thiss summer is off bad
Posted by: salva | June 27, 2008 at 04:11 PM
it doesn't make sense to say 07 summer was better because it had better opening weekends!
forget openings, even the full run of selected movies do not matters.
it's the total gross by ALL movies released, that counts.
iron man = pirates
indy is nearly same as shrek
we have kungfu better than ratatouille
dark night will take care of transformers or spidy.
then there's wall-e.
of course, potter 6 is in november this time.....but there could be more 150 million grossing movies than last summer to make up for it.
Posted by: Abhishek | June 27, 2008 at 04:42 PM
i dont think the dark knight will outgross spider-man 3 as much as i want it too i dont think it will happen and transformers took and increible 319 million can indy or iron man or even the dark knight top that?
Posted by: salva | June 27, 2008 at 06:55 PM
you seem right, 07 looks bigger so far. specially because it had the advantage of potter which is in Nov. this year.
but if TDK and Wall E exceed expectations, then one extra 100 million movie could make up for what ever lead the big 5 had last year.
08 has had stronger "2nd rung" movies like sex and the city, hulk 2, etc.
i think a lot would depend on Hancock....unfortunately, the reviews are pretty poor....but it's will smith + july 4...so could be big.
if the smith's lame 'wild wild west' sold tickets worth 158 million(in today's dollar)...then hancock can touch 220 at least. that would help a lot.
Posted by: abhishek | June 27, 2008 at 10:46 PM
thats true but alson look at it this way only 2 flims have grossed more than 200 million thats down from last year i know kung fu panda is on its way but its still a little low. And how much moeny will the dark knight have made in it opening weekend and its final domestic gross and the worldwide gross
Posted by: salva | June 28, 2008 at 08:20 AM