FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Get Smart' solid with $33M-$36M; 'Hulk' to hold strong with $24M-$27M; 'Love Guru' softer at $18M-$21M!
by Steve Mason
Not much change in my weekend predictions from Monday's early preview. Virtually everyone I talk to has Steve Carell's Get Smart (Warner Bros.) at $35 million or so. If the number holds, then it will be an excellent start, becoming Carell's all-time best live-action opening as an above-the-title star. His best to date is last summer's Evan Alimighty, which managed $31.2 million.
The reviews are coming in with a positive lean. As of Thursday morning, Rotten Tomatoes has the late '60s TV adaptation at 53 percent Fresh and MetaCritic is giving out a score of 52. With a PG-13 rating, the movie has a chance to play to Baby Boomers, who are fans of the original show, Gen-Xers, who saw the reruns, and teens that know Carell from The 40-Year-Old Virgin and Little Miss Sunshine. I am calling for $33 million-$36 million for Get Smart, with a possible upside surprise in the cards.
The Incredible Hulk (Universal), Marvel Comics's second self-financed, self-produced feature, is a lock for No. 2. With a solid A- CinemaScore rating from its opening weekend and positive word-of-mouth, a drop of no worse than 50 percent is likely, paving the way for $24 million-$27 million.
The other new wide release this weekend is Paramount's The Love Guru, featuring the latest original character from Mike Myers. My sources tell me that the tracking remains soft. One of the world's hottest women, Jessica Alba, should be a drawing card thanks to the two Fantastic Four movies on her resume, both of which opened to better than $50 million. Recording superstar and quickly rising actor Justin Timberlake could also bring Under 25s to the multiplex, but reviews for The Love Guru are scathing. I am revising my prediction range to $18 million-$21 million.
Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) has the animation audience all to itself for another week, with Pixar's WALL-E on the sidelines until next Friday. With Jack Black as the lead voice, roly-poly Po the Panda is headed for another $16 million-$19 million and a new cume of about $150 million. Paramount is well on its way to back-to-back-to-back $200 million grossing movies, with Iron Man followed by Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull followed by Kung Fu Panda (although The Love Guru will clearly snap that streak).
M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening will round out the Top 5, with something along the lines of $14 million-$17 million. I'm not a film critic, but I saw this R-rated genre picture last weekend and, in my estimation, it is highly original and pretty chilling. The payoff is not perfect, but if you are looking for something a little darker in advance of next week's much buzzed-about Wanted, then The Happening is a good bet this weekend.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEKEND OF JUNE 20
1. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $35 million
2. The Incredible Hulk (Universal) — $27 million
3. Love Guru (Paramount) — $20 million
4. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $18 million
5. The Happening (20th Century Fox) — $16.75 million
6. You Don’t Mess With The Zohan (Sony) — $9 million
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $8.75 million
8. Sex and the City (Warner Bros) — $5.25 million
9. Iron Man (Paramount) — $3.8 million
10. The Strangers (Rogue) — $2.1 million
How about Kung Fu Panda above Love Guru, that wouldn't surprise me at all.
Posted by: Alex | June 19, 2008 at 01:01 PM
Hey, we agree!
Posted by: JackO | June 19, 2008 at 06:16 PM
love guru will be at #2. reviews do not matter, look at meet the spartans
Posted by: ben | June 20, 2008 at 04:19 AM
Um, Steve, I think I can safely say that Kung Fu Panda will make over $20 million this weekend. In fact, my prediction is around $22.5 million.
Posted by: J.I. | June 20, 2008 at 08:00 AM
Steve, I'm sorry but I cannot agree with you about the happening. It is better than the village, which I detested and Lady in the water and it is a step in the right direction for M. NIght, but I just don't think it's a film that you can recommend. It was just an ok film for me with no payoff. If people are looking for something darker, they should check out on DVD -- Vacancy or maybe, the strangers (which I have not seen yet). And a majority of the people on yahoo and moviefone and fandango, declare the happening as one of the worst movies ever -- I don't agree with that but see definitely where they are coming from.
BTW, I have now seen three RAVE reviews about WANTED -- hollywoodreporter, variety among them.
can't wait to see that.
Posted by: Jake | June 20, 2008 at 12:48 PM
u would think that if meet the spartans got 19 million , guru could get more.
however, speed racer got just 18. golden compass got 25.
and fans of superbad(32 mill opening) did not flock to see forgetting sarah marshall(18 million opening).
also heartbreak kid was at 15. fred clause was at 15(shocker).
so guru could fail to touch 20.
Posted by: Abhishek | June 20, 2008 at 01:20 PM
Hi Steve, love your sight. Im curious to see if you are still predicting that Paramount will be crossing the billion dollar mark domestic today , June 20th which you said it would certainly hit by Guru's opening day. When you said that 2 or so weeks or go, I gave all their releases generous holds and gave Love Guru 15 mil for its opening Friday. My model still came up 20 mil short of them crossing the billion dollar mark today. Did you think Guru was doing 30_ mil today? Peace.
Posted by: sean | June 20, 2008 at 07:38 PM