SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: Marvel Strikes Again! 'The Incredible Hulk' Could Reach $150M Domestic!
by Steve Mason
Marvel Studios has every right to call their re-booted version of The Incredible Hulk (Universal) a success. Of course, it fell well shy of the comic book empire's first self-financed and self-produced film, Iron Man (Paramount), which will pass $300 million domestic this week. For the new kid to hit the ground with an estimated $54.53 million, however, is a good solid start. In baseball terms, if Iron Man is a home run, then The Incredible Hulk is a good solid double off the wall. And if its projected first-weekend tally holds when actuals are released, then the new version of Hulk will be the all-time 11th-best opening for a comic adaptation, and the all-time 5th-best for a non-sequel:
ALL-TIME TOP 20 OPENINGS FOR COMIC BOOK ADAPTATIONS
1. Spider-Man 3 — $151.11 million
2. Spider-Man — $114.84 million
3. X-Men: The Last Stand — $102.75 million
4. Iron Man — $98.61 million
5. Spider-Man 2 — $88.15 million
6. X2: X-Men United — $85.55 million
7. 300 — $70.88 million
8. Hulk (2003) — $62.12 million
9. Fantastic Four 2: Rise of the Silver Surfer — $60.23 million
10. Fantastic Four — $56.06 million
11. The Incredible Hulk — $54.53 million (Estimated)
12. X-Men — $54.47 million
13. Batman Forever — $52.78 million
14. Superman Returns — $52.53 million
15. Men in Black II — $52.14 million
16. Men in Black — $51.06 million
17. Batman Begins — $48.74 million
18. Batman Returns — $45.68 million
19. Ghost Rider — $45.38 million
20. Batman & Robin — $42.87 million
One of the non-sequels that opened better was Ang Lee's dubiously regarded 2003 film Hulk, which opened with $62.12 million, but went on to amass just $132.17 million domestic. That is a meager 2.12 multiple, meaning that you would multiply the movie's opening weekend by 2.12 to reach the total domestic gross. That low multiple demonstrates that fans ultimately did not like Lee's brooding take on Bruce Banner's story, which featured Eric Bana as Banner.
I checked out The Incredible Hulk this weekend, and it is a great, big fun movie. Louis Leterrier (Transporter, Transporter 2) has focused on action instead of inner psychology, and the audience I saw the movie with ate it up. My studio sources tell me that CinemaScore grades are excellent for the new Hulk.
In a quick survey of industry connections this morning, guesses at The Incredible Hulk's final domestic total range from $135 million to $160 million. My hunch is that TIH will not have as friendly a multiple as the original Spider-Man's 3.5 or even Iron Man, which is at a 3 multiple so far. I think that 2.75, the multiple delivered by the original Fantastic Four, is probably safe. I am projecting the new Hulk to finish at $145 million-$155 million domestic.
The Incredible Hulk has a $150 million budget.
It spent nearly $100 million in prints and ads.
How is grossing a meager $150 million a success???
Posted by: Robert | June 16, 2008 at 02:25 PM
Don't forget the international take too...
Posted by: bhn | June 16, 2008 at 07:06 PM
if u want the domestic gross 2 B equal to the production+advertising budget,
many films won't make it to the list...many super-hits that is...
Posted by: Abhishek | June 17, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Robert, domestic gross is only one part of the success equation. International gross for a film like this will likely equal or even surpass domestic. Also don't for get about VOD, DVD, HBO, TV, Airplane, Merchandise; awill be paying out for years to come.
Posted by: Frost | June 17, 2008 at 01:24 PM
Also note that marvel is trying to reboot the Hulk brand. They'd be happy to get close to breaking even as long as it is popular with fans-which it seems to be. This could set up a quite profitable franchise
Posted by: AusSteve | June 17, 2008 at 10:14 PM
this new Incredible Hulk is a lot more fun than the first one with Eric Bana; plus Ed Norton is in his element, doing the "split personality" role
Posted by: patrick | June 19, 2008 at 01:39 PM