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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

July 11, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: America Sees Red! 'Hellboy II' Burning Up Theatres w/$35M opening; Five Consecutive $100M Movies Possible for Universal; 'Hancock' Adds $32M; 3D Boosts 'Journey' to $21M; Disaster for Murphy's 'Meet Dave'!

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY 8:00 a.m. (Pacific): Hellboy II: The Golden Army is Guillermo del Toro' best-ever opening, and the film's strong weekend take dramatically improves the odds that Universal will put together an impressive summer streak of four consecutive $100 million movies, with five in a row a real possibility. The sequel to 2004’s Hellboy scared up about $12M on Friday and that will likely translate to a $35M opening weekend.

Critics have swooned for the second chapter of this franchise, with a fantastic 87 percent Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, although Hellboy  is hardly the best-known comic book character with a movie this summer. The big red guy from the underworld is not the traditional superhero; technically, he is a demon who sands down his horns, chomps on Cuban cigars, has a giant paw nicknamed "the right hand of doom" and likes to play with cats. All of this meant that the Universal marketing folks had their work cut out for them.

What HBII has, something that Marvel's The Incredible Hulk could have used more of, is fun. As played by Ron Perlman (in heavy prosthetics), Hellboy is funny, and del Toro has crafted a wisecracking, snarky screenplay with a lot of laughs. One of my regular studio sources described the film this week as being "a little out there." My opinion all along has been that it is way out there — and that's a good thing.

The original Hellboy opened with only $23.17 million en route to about $60 million domestic, but the movie has gained traction on cable and DVD. Del Toro's stunning visuals, including some staggeringly bizarre creatures, sold the new installment in trailers and commercials, and there was some cleverness in the marketing (like this wry faux appearance of Hellboy on Inside the Actor's Studio).

The Golden Army will not only be del Toro's biggest opening ever, it will also likely become the overall top grossing movie on his resume with more than $100 million likely.

FILMS DIRECTED BY GUILLERMO DEL TORO
Cronos (1994) — $17,500 opening, $625,000 cume
Mimic (1997) — $7.81 million opening, $25.48 million cume
The Devil's Backbone (2001) — $35,000 opening, $755,000 cume
Blade II (2002) — $32.52 million opening, $82.34 million cume
Hellboy (2004) — $23.17 million opening, $59.62 million cume
Pan's Labyrinth (2006) — $570,000 opening, $37.63 million cume
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
(2006) — $35 million opening (Estimated)

HBII's excellent opening is good news for Universal as it follows the back-to-back $100 million successes of The Incredible Hulk and Wanted (which will likely finish No. 5 this weekend with an estimated $11.5 million). If HBII can top $100 million, then Mamma Mia will likely make it four blockbusters in a row. You can certainly argue that the new Hulk, at less than $130 million domestic, is a disappointment, but back-to-back-to-back-to-back $100 million movies is no small feat. For Universal, it would be the second consecutive summer with four $100 million hits in a row.

UNIVERSAL SUMMER 2007 BLOCKBUSTERS
Knocked Up (Released June 1) — $148.76 million cume
Evan Almighty (Released June 22) — $100.46 million  cume
I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Released July 22) — $120 million  cume
The Bourne Ultimatum (Released August 3) — $227.47 million cume

In 2008, however, Universal has a chance to go the summer of 2007 one better, with Brendan Fraser's The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor set to open Aug. 1. Since the first two Mummy movies topped $100 million, it is fair to expect that Universal will have its fifth consecutive movie with a take of at least $100 million. I cannot find another instance where any Hollywood studio has pulled off that trick.

Sony's Hancock was a strong No. 2 with an estimated $13 million Saturday, and it should soar to a strong $33.3 million second weekend, for a new cume of $165 million. That represents about a 47 percent drop from its opening weekend, and that is a very good hold (especially when you consider that it played strongly for two days leading into its first three-day weekend frame). As I reported earlier this week, despite negative reviews from critics, rank-and-file moviegoers seem to like Hancock, and it will easily cruise past $200 million domestic.

Meanwhile Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.), which is spectacular in 3D, has been hurt by the relatively lazy pace at which exhibitors have been investing in Digital 3D technology. The Brendan Fraser family comedy debuted at an estimated 800 theatres with 3D technology, compared to 2,000 or so traditional locations. Reports are that the film is performing dramatically better where 3D is available. All in, Journey managed $8 million on Saturday, which should result in $21 million for the three-day. That marks Fraser's all-time third-best opening:

ALL-TIME TOP 5 BRENDAN FRASER OPENINGS
1. The Mummy Returns — $68.13 million
2. The Mummy — $43.36 million
3. Journey to the Center of the Earth  — $21 million (Estimated)
4. George of the Jungle — $16.54 million
5. Bedazzled — $13.1 million

Disney's WALL-E, the latest from Pixar, scooped up $8 million on Saturday, and it is headed for a very steady $18.9 million or so, and a new cume of $163 million. Based on the way this film is playing, Andrew Stanton's instant classic has a real chance at more than $250 million domestic.

I generally try to avoid words like disaster and bomb in my box-office analysis, but Eddie Murphy's Meet Dave (20th Century Fox) is underperforming its already shockingly low industry expectations. Directed by Brian Robbins, who successfully teamed with Murphy on last year's DreamWorks hit Norbit, it was fair to expect that Meet Dave would rally from its poor industry tracking to deliver something respectable on opening weekend. There was no rally.

It appears that Meet Dave has scrounged up only $2 million in Saturday ticket sales, and I am projecting an embarrassing $5.65 million opening weekend. That makes it Murphy's second-worst wide opening ever, finishing better than only The Adventures of Pluto Nash ($2.18 million).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $35 million, $10,924 PTA, $35 million cume
2. Hancock (Sony) — $33.31 million, $8,402 PTA, $165.34 million cume 
3. NEW Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $21 million, $7,471 PTA, $21 million cume
4. WALL-E (Disney) — $18.9 million, $4,910 PTA, $163.16 million cume
5. Wanted (Universal) — $12 million, $3,799 PTA, $112.45 million cume 
6. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $7.8 million, $2,528 PTA, $112.16 million cume
7. NEW Meet Dave (20th Century Fox) — $5.65 million, $1,876 PTA, $5.65 million cume 
8. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $4.6 million, $1,702 PTA, $202.34 million cume 
9. Kit Kittredge: An American Girl (Picturehouse) — $2.47 million, $1,339 PTA, $11.16 million cume
10. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Paramount) — $2.04 million, $1,226 PTA, $310.26 million cume
 

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Posted at 11:42 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Man, that's a little disappointing for Wall-E. I hope it gets a healthy boost Saturday to carry it to 20 mill.

Posted by: JackO | July 11, 2008 at 11:59 PM

Hellboy 1 was very entertaining and I suspect Hellboy 2 will me even more so.. Glad for Ron Perlman... I've always liked him, despite his non-spectacular looking personna.... He's an excellent actor with a great sense of humor...!!!

Posted by: Butch1227 | July 12, 2008 at 12:43 AM

I cannot be any happier for HellBoy 2 right now. I really wanted it to do good this weekend, because I am a big fan of the character and I really digged the first one. With all the talk about TDK coming out next week and the possiblity of it ending up being killed by that was their I'm glad it still worked out. Hopefully next week it won't get hurt too much though. RP is awesome and I hope to see him as HB more in the furture. :)

Posted by: wrongturn687 | July 12, 2008 at 01:27 AM

Yeah, whats going on with Wall-E?
And better yet, Get Smart is really going to make over 10M this week, considering it made 11M last week??

Posted by: Joel | July 12, 2008 at 05:31 AM

Why are all the long knives out for Pixar? Wall-E is still performing better than Cars, Monsters Inc, and Ratatouille were at similar points. Plus, it looks like its drop will be smaller than last weekend's.

Posted by: elessar | July 12, 2008 at 08:14 AM

Thats not bad for Hellboy. I thought it would do 40 million but 32is not that bad. But i really hope that lackluster Indiana Jones movie doesnt catchup to Iron Man. And hopfully The Dark Knight will top both of those films

Posted by: salva | July 12, 2008 at 08:37 AM

Wall-E is not performing better than Cars at a similar point:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=junecgvs.htm

Posted by: pixar | July 12, 2008 at 09:02 AM

Yes it is, Pixar. If you'll notice, at the end of their second week, Wall-E had 144M while Cars was at 133M.

Posted by: elessar | July 12, 2008 at 09:28 AM

Guillermo del Toro had not just reinvented the fairy tales as he did with vampires in Blade II, but showed Hollywood that the success of commercial films can be because a great director and production team.

Posted by: Roberto | July 12, 2008 at 09:42 AM

With today's number's factored in, Wall-E's 15-day total stands at 149.8 while Cars' was 139.8

Agreed on Hellboy II, Roberto. News of GDT helming The Hobbit probably also sparked some interest.

Posted by: elessar | July 12, 2008 at 10:32 AM

Wall-E is doing better than Cars and Cars netted $244M over its run in theaters. Given that Wall-E is beating it by about $10M right now and it has better WOM and critic rating, Mase should be right on the money with his $250M+ estimate.

Posted by: TDslugger02 | July 12, 2008 at 10:50 AM

BOM has Get Smart doing $2.3 million on Friday so no, it won't be making $10 million this weekend.

Absolutely horrible for Meet Dave, I was thinking a few weeks ago that it could get $30 million OW, and that definately didn't happen.

Posted by: J.I. | July 12, 2008 at 11:02 AM

Thanks for the Wall-E numbers. I hope it can keep up the pace.

Posted by: JackO | July 12, 2008 at 11:43 AM

I enjoyed Hellboy 2 so much I hope the mumbers continue to roll in big time and it becomes so big Hellboy 3 will be a sure thing. There are some classic scenes in Hellboy 2 that will have you laughing and shouting for more. The locker room scene, the beer singing love song scene with abe, and the kick butt finale are just three of many. I wish Del Toro wouldn't have used so much fast cutting in his editing of his action sequences as it deprived us of enjoying the fruits of his work even more.

Posted by: jdls008 | July 12, 2008 at 02:08 PM

I think it will, JackO. Its weekday takings have been excellent. Additionally, if Mase's projections are right (and I think he might be underestimating Wall-E a bit), Wall-E's 163M will be ahead of Monsters Inc at the same point (156M).

Posted by: elessar | July 12, 2008 at 02:44 PM

Too bad for Meet Dave, it actually isn't a bad movie. I did drop it though when I saw that horrendous tracking. Surprised that Hellboy will get 35 mill this weekend, too bad for Hancock.

Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | July 12, 2008 at 02:54 PM

A little off topic, but is anyone else having problems getting on the message boards?

Posted by: SotoMojo | July 12, 2008 at 03:16 PM

I was about to ask the same thing SotoMojo. I haven't been able to get on the message boards for a few days now.

Posted by: TDslugger02 | July 12, 2008 at 03:27 PM

Same here.I haven't been able to get on since Monday or Tuesday.

Posted by: elessar | July 12, 2008 at 04:20 PM

I think everyone is being disappointed by Wall-E because of all the $300M domestic talk leading up to its OW. Even after its OW, everyone was still going on about its soon-to-be-legendary legs.I guess they can't get over the fact that the movie did not live up to their unmatchable expectations. Good to see Hancock hold up well. Let's hope TDK does not let down its predictors affectionately called "bat loonies", because the excuses won't end. I read predictions for $160M, $180M, even $200M. I know demand is huge, but again, people are letting their own interests fuel their inability to be subjective.

Posted by: Stev | July 12, 2008 at 04:49 PM

My Dark Knight prediction is a $125 mill OW. What do you guys think?

Oh, and I'm very happy with HB2's performance. Its going to help me big time in my BO league. Same price as Meet Dave, LOL.

Posted by: SotoMojo | July 12, 2008 at 05:31 PM

I want to try to predict low (around $95 million) so I am extremely happy on opening weekend. My realistic prediction is $130 million with more being possible.

Posted by: J.I. | July 12, 2008 at 06:09 PM

I think the dark knight will open with 120 or 125 around there and finish off with about 330 or 340

Posted by: salva | July 12, 2008 at 09:21 PM

I think TDK will be bigger than Spider-Man 3 actually with like 150-160 million considering practically all shows are sold out in big cities. Smaller will have lines around the block. Couldn't be happier for Hellboy. I saw it opening day and LOVED it. Also couldn't be happier that the piece of crap vanity project meet dave flopped. Don't plan on seeing it but just wanted it to flop after the "hit" norbit, didn't see either. Besides Eddie Murphy's comedies suck. Maybe now he will learn.

Posted by: Dylan | July 12, 2008 at 10:01 PM

I think $105-120M, tops. Has anybody heard anything on the PTA for "The Wackness" this weekend?

Posted by: synestro | July 13, 2008 at 04:55 AM

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