SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: If the Oscar Nominations Came Out Today, 'The Dark Knight,' 'WALL-E' and 'The Visitor' Would Lead The Way!
by Steve Mason
It's never too early to start speculating about the Academy Awards. Although the year is just 200 days along, and most of the obvious Oscar titles will not arrive in theaters until September or October at the earliest, I thought it would be entertaining to ask the question, "What if the Oscar nominations came out today?"
I have mapped out five nominees in each of the big six categories, and, no surprise, both The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) and WALL-E (Disney) show up in both the Best Picture and Best Director categories. I have also been very kind to some of my favorite specialty releases from the first six-and-a-half months of 2008, including The Visitor (Overture), Under the Same Moon (Weinstein), The Fall (Roadside Attractions), OSS117: Cairo — Nest of Spies (Music Box) and Roman de Gare (Samuel Goldwyn). Yes, some of these films are assured of being long since forgotten by next January.
There are also some "reaches" among my nominations from commercial films. Some of these nominees will obviously have no shot at Oscar time, like James McAvoy in Wanted (Universal) and Sarah Jessica Parker in Sex and the City (Warner Bros.). There are also some gem performances that I hope will be remembered, however, like Richard Jenkins and Haaz Sleiman in The Visitor, Eugenio Derbez in Under The Same Moon and Cantinca Untaru in The Fall.
Finding worthy performances for women was the toughest part of the process, especially Best Supporting Actress. Mila Kunis gave a soulful little turn in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, but this will not be Oscar-bait. The same goes for Cate Blanchett's scenery chewing in Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) and Bette Midler's uneven performance in Then She Found Me (ThinkFilm), but I had to have five nominees.
BEST PICTURE
The Dark Knight
WALL-E
The Fall
The Visitor
Under the Same Moon
WINNER: The Dark Knight
ANALYSIS: I believe that both The Dark Knight and WALL-E should be considered as strong contenders in the Best Picture category this year. The Visitor is probably too subtle, The Fall is too out there and Under The Same Moon is too schmaltzy for any of them to rank as serious awards contenders, but I love them all the same.
BEST ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. — Iron Man
James McAvoy — Wanted
Richard Jenkins — The Visitor
Jean Dujardin — OSS 117: Cairo — Nest of Spies
Jason Segal — Forgetting Sarah Marshall
WINNER: Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
ANALYSIS: I could make a case for Jean Dujardin, who looks like Sean Connery and has the comic timing of Peter Sellers, but I have no idea whether he is, technically, eligible for an Academy Award nomination. Jenkins is simply perfect in Thomas McCarthy's heartfelt story of a lonely college professor who finds himself thanks to a pair of illegal immigrants and learning to play the drums.
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Hunt — Then She Found Me
Fanny Ardent — Roman de Gare
Meryl Streep — Mamma Mia
Sarah Jessica Parker — Sex and the City
Kate Del Castillo — Under the Same Moon
WINNER: Helen Hunt for Then She Found Me
ANALYSIS: I do not think that any of these five performances have any real chance come Oscar time. It seems as though I like Then She Found Me more than critics, but I appreciate Hunt's willingness to put herself out there in a decidedly unglamorous way (she also gets points for an interesting script and a solid directing debut).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger — The Dark Knight
Russell Brand — Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Haaz Sleiman — The Visitor
Eugenio Derbez — Under the Same Moon
Aaron Eckhart — The Dark Knight
WINNER: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
ANALYSIS: Ledger will win this year's Academy Award. Period. The Dark Knight is not a blockbuster because he died. It is a blockbuster because he lived, lived to create one of the most original performances in movie history. I do like Brand, Sleiman and Derbez a lot in their respective roles.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cantinca Untaru — The Fall
Danai Jekesai Gurira — The Visitor
Mila Kunas — Forgetting Sarah Marshall
Bette Midler — Then She Found Me
Cate Blanchett — Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
WINNER: Cantinca Untaru for The Fall
ANALYSIS: Untaru delivers one of my favorite child performances ever. She is so sweet in her broken English, and clearly coaxed along by the amazing Lee Pace. If you have not seen The Fall, find it at your local arthouse or the moment it comes out on DVD.
BEST DIRECTOR
Andrew Stanton — WALL-E
Christopher Nolan — The Dark Knight
Claude LeLouch — Roman de Gare
Tarsem Singh — The Fall
Thomas McCarthy — The Visitor
WINNER: Christopher Nolan for The Dark Knight
ANALYSIS: Tough to compare Stanton, who will certainly receive a screenplay nomination, to Nolan, whose technical virtuosity is on display in live action. I am a big LeLouch fan, McCarthy's work has magic and heart, and Singh has created some amazing images, but Nolan is a genius. From the use of 70MM IMAX cameras, to the perfectly constructed set pieces, to the amazing final scene between Batman and Joker with Ledger hanging upside down and the camera slowly turning to change the audience’s perspective, Nolan has created a masterpiece.
i agree with most of this, but uh one question: what about benjamin button? i think that's a shoe-in for a best pic nod. i'm not saying it could win; but i'm sure, with the academy favorable for that sorta thing, it will at least get nominated.
& if TDK were to actually receive nods for best pic & director, that will be the single most amazing thing since LOTR3 winning in 2003. if it doesn't win, so be it, but it should def be given nods.
& i think i can speak for the lovers when i say: if heath ledger doesn't win, there will be a slew of extremely pissed-off people around the world.
well done with the predictions!
Posted by: miyu | July 21, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Bit of an odd, crazed up fanboy article, Steve. Why even talk about Oscars when we all know that Oscar-oriented flicks are usually kept until Nov/Dec to ensure they're not forgotten (Zodiac was sadly overlooked due to its March release). There's probably going to be some great films out by the end of the year, so I don't really see why you're having an imaginary Thricely Oscar Awards.
Posted by: numbersix_99 | July 22, 2008 at 03:18 AM
The Dark Knight deserves several Oscar nominations including Best Picture and the Academy better respect that! It'd get so many more people interested in the Oscars something they need after last year's Oscars were the least watched in history.
Posted by: Matthew R. | July 22, 2008 at 06:27 AM
Hi numbersix_99,
This could definitely be interpreted as a fanboy story that is pro-Batman, but I'm also very high on some other films, especially THE VISITOR and WALL-E.
I will probably beat the drum for DARK KNIGHT and WALL-E all through Oscar season, and I am really hoping that the Oscar voters realize that Best Picture does not have to be an indie film with a small budget.
As for BENJAMIN BUTTON, mentioned above, the article only includes films already in release. So there is no CHANGELING, BURN AFTER READING,W, FROST/NIXON,DEFIANCE, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, BODY OF LIES, DEFIANCE, AUSTRALIA, DOUBT, etc..
My intention here is just a converstion starter. Any movie or performance from the first half of the yesr that I am missing?
Best, Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | July 22, 2008 at 09:52 AM
By the way, I agree completely about ZODIAC.
Best, Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | July 22, 2008 at 09:54 AM
Best supporting actress considerations that were left out:
Cynthia Nixon: Sex and the City
Amanda Seyfried: Mamma Mia!
Both were very well played and Seyfried suprised the heck out of me.
Posted by: Derrick | July 22, 2008 at 10:12 AM
I think you've got a point about TDK getting some Oscar nominations, especially if it keeps grossing money at it's current rate. Wall-E might have a tougher road though. Pixar always makes great animated flicks. It would have to be something huge and great like Toy Story for it to get a nomination.
Posted by: JackO | July 22, 2008 at 10:59 AM
Doing fantasy Oscar picks in July makes about as much sense as doing a fantasy football draft in May. So much is going to happen between now and then: in football you would have trades and injuries, in movieland you are going to have bad press and new releases. If we were having this conversation two months ago, the Oscar would have gone to Iron Man.
Posted by: Brett | July 22, 2008 at 12:04 PM
I Heath gets it then its an all australian oscars you're forgetting baz and his epic. They'll never give it to the Bat. its not that perfect a world
Posted by: Muno | July 22, 2008 at 12:06 PM
I would have to give supporting props to Ben Kingsley in The Wackness, too.
Posted by: Brando | July 22, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Ulp, spoke too soon. Bale arrested for assault in England?
Posted by: Brett | July 22, 2008 at 02:13 PM
No doubt about Heath Ledger and considering IMDb, Dark Knight should compete in Best Picture. I doubt if they would have a chance against the more conservative Body of Lies or Benjamin Button... But I guess it's too soon in the season to discuss about possible Academy Awards.
Posted by: Roger | July 22, 2008 at 04:24 PM
I LOVE that you did this report, but I disagree that Sarah Jessica Parker does not have a chance. She delivered an oscar caliber performance with two very dramatic scenes that just should not be ignored. I hope that the dark knight can make the top 5. It seems like there is a bias towards big budget action movies -- yet Bourne ultimatum won 3 oscars last year.
Posted by: Jake | July 23, 2008 at 07:37 AM
it is Catinca and not Cantinca....do agree hers was the best performance I have seen this year...and the Fall is too good...
Posted by: axw11 | July 23, 2008 at 07:54 AM
Sarah Jessica Parker just should not be forgotten come Oscar time. I was surprised and moved by her powerful performance.
Posted by: Seth | July 23, 2008 at 09:02 AM
I agree, Sarah Jessica Parker's performance is just astonishing. In years where they have said there is a lack of great female performances -- Parker is one of the best in at least the past decade. It is the kind of performance that Academy voters usually love to nominate and I hope that they do so again.
Posted by: Sam | July 23, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Best Picture for Wall E and TDK seem like more of a fanboy wish than true thinking analysis. I haven't seen the other film so I can't comment on those films as to whether they are deserving or not IMHO. However, I am surprised that Iron Man is not on your best picture list not that I would place it on the list as I only gave it a B rating. WallE gets a B from me and TDK gets a B+ only because of the the stellar performances of Aaron and the fine performance of Health Ledger. Now on to the fall for some serious filmmaking experiences.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 23, 2008 at 03:32 PM
While I am here I would like to give "mamma mia" a moviegoer positive plug. This film is a solid movie going experience. It was a wonderful musical and I was wondering why the critics weren't kinder to the film with their reviews. Yes it has a dumb story line but the musical numbers are lively and the execution of the choreography and the songs and music is right on and who would have thought that these stars would have pulled it off. They have. Worth a look.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 23, 2008 at 03:41 PM
I wouldn't worry about mamma mia's lack of good reviews -- it's doing superb business overseas and will be a domestic hit. I just wish it had opened on a different weekend, i'm sure it would have done 30-40 million. Positively glowing reviews for Hairspray -- seemed to make it a shoo -- in for nominations and it deserved to be but it just did not pan out.
I'm glad to see James McAvoy on this list -- he has emerged this summer as the true movie star.
Posted by: james | July 23, 2008 at 08:46 PM
I really don't think having TDK up there is that much of stretch. Having it gross where only one film has gone, having strong performances and excellent legit actors abound and on top of that an excellent crafted screenplay, score, and cinematography will carry this film to the prestige. Plus, I don't really see any TWBB or No Country's out there this year. Doubt looks strong from the source material alone, Australia will be there, Ben Button will too but House of Lies looks like a overrated snoozer and the field just doesn't look as strong. I guess we shall see in the coming months.
Posted by: JackO | July 24, 2008 at 12:24 AM
I think if we are looking at Oscar nominations based on just films released so far, then In Bruges definitely should be getting considered. It was only a small film, but it was as successful as several films that got mentions, and the reviews were outstanding. Brendan Gleeson and Colin Ferrell should be in actor over Jason Segel and James McAvoy, and Ralph Fiennes should be in supporting actor.
Posted by: Mojo | July 26, 2008 at 11:59 AM