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July 15, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: 'Mummy' Should Have Stayed in Its Tomb, but 'Swing Vote' Could Pack Political Comedy Punch

by Shrykespeare

Greetings fellow Fantaversians, and welcome to yet another installment of Bard's Eye View. I'll try to keep this column brief (yeah, a first, I know), because I'm sure most of you are planning on leaving at any moment to begin camping out on the sidewalks in front of cineplexes everywhere, trying to be the first to score tickets for that midnight debut of The Dark Knight. And I can't say as I half blame you. I think I actually did that in 1983 for Return of the Jedi, an experience that I look back on now and laugh. There's no law against being an amped-up 14-year-old fanboy, but I'm afraid that now, my pavement-dozing days are over. (Wink.)

Even though the calendar maintains that the season known as "summer" technically only last for three months, if you are an avid moviegoer, then this period actually lasts for four, the period between May 1 and Labor Day. This week, we will kick off the fourth quarter (an appropriate metaphor, given that preseason football will be starting around that time) with three films scheduled for release in the first week of August.

Come to think of it, that's not entirely true. The first film I'll be talking about, a comedy called The Rocker actually comes out on July 30, which is a Wednesday. (Note: Sources around the Web are now reporting that the date has been changed to Aug. 20. And its initial release date was Aug. 1. So will it open July 30, or ... February 2009? Stay tuned.) This is just the third film to be directed by English director Peter Cattaneo in the 11 years since Cattaneo's widely loved The Full Monty, truly one of the biggest LITTLE films you could ever find. This time, however, he is not telling the story of a bunch of unemployed steelworkers who decide to earn money by becoming strippers, but rather the story of Robert "Fish" Fishman (played by The Office star Rainn Wilson), a washed-up rock-and-roll drummer.

You see, 20 years ago, Fish was the drummer for a glam-rock hair band called Vesuvius, and was happily leading the rock-and-roll lifestyle, right up to the moment where he got unceremoniously dumped by the rest of his band. Fast-forward to the present day, where his nephew Matt (played by Josh Gad, last seen as one of the dorky roommates in 21) fronts a garage band (called "A.D.D.," if you can believe it). On the night they are scheduled to play the senior prom, they unexpectedly lose their own drummer. In a bit of a bind, Matt turns to Fish to sub. You can probably figure the rest out from there: the band is a big hit, and the 40-something Fish revels in the opportunity of making a comeback (thanks in no small part to his Internet persona, "The Naked Drummer"), taking his new buds out on the road for a taste of the good life.

I have to say, I like this premise. I am just SO glad they got someone OTHER than Jack Black to play this character, having had enough Tenacious D to last a lifetime. This is Wilson's first time in a leading role; previously he's been relegated to playing supporting characters in films like Almost Famous, Sahara, My Super Ex-Girlfriend, The Last Mimzy and Juno. He is terrific as a comic foil for Steve Carell on The Office, and I wouldn't be surprised if he became a breakout star some time in the near future.

I gather that Fantasy Moguls doesn't think The Rocker is going to be released that widely, given that they predict not even a single Top 5 or PTA point for it. And, truth be told, there are a lot of films it will have to battle to get into the Top 5: The Dark Knight, Mamma Mia!, Step Brothers and The X-Files: I Want to Believe, as well as the two other major films being released this particular weekend. However, I think that if its theater count is over 2,000 and it is marketed well, it could be a good sleeper pick for your roster.

It certainly won't run you very much dough, that's for sure; you can have it for just $4 in Ultimate Movie Moguls. Mind you, that's $4 for a film that Fantasy Moguls believes will earn $26 million, which isn't too bad. Of course, temper your enthusiasm with the fact that you could spend the same amount of cash on other films, some of which may have rosier prospects, like Mirrors, The Longshots, Babylon A.D. or Bangkok Dangerous. We're heading into that time of the year when the big films are starting to peter out, so tread carefully.

Part of Kevin Costner's charm is his ability to play the role of the everyman, the gritty working stiff who is a little rough around the edges, but possesses an endearing charm. He played such roles in films like Bull Durham, Field of Dreams, Tin Cup, For Love of the Game and, most recently, Rumor Has It and The Upside of Anger. This month, he is returning to those "heartland of America" roots, only this time not in the vein of a sports comedy, sports drama, family drama or whatever Rumor Has It was. No, this time as regular ol' Bud Johnson in Swing Vote, he's doing what looks to be a political satire of sorts (and in an election year, whaddaya know??), and a far cry from last summer's big Costner role, which was as a schizophrenic serial killer in the excellent Mr. Brooks.

Bud fits the mold of the typical "lovable loser," basically coasting through life. The one bright spot in his otherwise humdrum existence is his precocious 12-year-old daughter Molly (played by Madeline Carroll of The Santa Clause 3). Trying to get her apathetic father to take an interest in the imminent presidential election, she registers him to vote, which he eventually does, reluctantly. Unfortunately, some sort of technical hijinks sets off a chain reaction which eventually culminates in Bud's vote needing to be recast, because his ballot and his alone is the one that will decide the winner of the election. Yeah, I know it's confusing, and more than a little far-fetched, but I'm hoping that the remote likelihood of such an outlandish occurrence will be overshadowed by the story itself.

Before he knows it, the entire free world has descended on Bud's little square of land, including the candidates (Kelsey Grammer and Dennis Hopper) and their somewhat unethical advisors (Nathan Lane and Stanley Tucci). That alone would make up a pretty good cast, but you also have George Lopez, Paula Patton, Mare Winningham and Judge Reinhold, not to mention a whole host of politicos cameoing as themselves. Swing Vote is being directed by Joshua Michael Stern, a showbiz greenhorn making his first foray into the big leagues.

I have to admit, I like what I've seen in the trailers. When done right, a political comedy can be a film that is remembered for many years, as long as it can be heartwarming without being schmaltzy, funny without being too preachy. Some of my past favorites in this genre have been Man of the Year, Primary Colors, Welcome to Mooseport, Wag the Dog and Dave. I see no reason why Swing Vote can't ascend to that fraternity, provided the filmmakers can keep the balance between good-natured humor and satire level. I have faith.

Depending on early reviews and theater counts, this film could debut as high as No. 3 (behind, presumably, The Dark Knight and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor), but could possibly finish out of the Top 5 entirely (depending on how well Step Brothers, The X-Files: I Want to Believe and The Rocker [possibly; see above] do). You'd be taking a bit of a risk to spend $12 on those prospects in Ultimate leagues. X-Files would seem to be the stronger pick on its surface, but if that title doesn't appeal to you, measure Swing Vote against the possibilities of similarly-priced offerings like Traitor or Lakeview Terrace. I think $10 is also too much to pay in Box Office, as $40 million in total take seems like a stretch. Then again, it could be a dark-horse candidate to nab some late summer dollars. (Grin.)

In 1999, director Stephen Sommers, who had achieved only middling success up until that point, scored hugely with one of the coolest action-fantasy-horror flicks of all time: The Mummy. Its blend of sweet effects, goofy humor, exotic locales and a good old-fashioned hero-vs.-villain dustup enthralled audiences in May of that year, as it soared to over $155 million at the ticket counters. Two years later, Sommers let loose a sequel, The Mummy Returns, which galloped to an even more impressive $202 million. And now, a further seven years down the road, Universal Pictures is having another go, as The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor hits theaters.

Here's what's the same, apart from the whole "undead" theme: Brendan Fraser returns as swashbuckling hero Rick O'Connell, along with actor John Hannah, who returns as his ne'er-do-well brother-in-law Jonathan. What's different: pretty much everything else. Rachel Weisz is out as Rick's wife Evelyn, replaced by Maria Bello (A History of Violence, World Trade Center) who must somehow affect a British accent while trying to keep our minds off the fact that she's ... well, not Rachel Weisz. The setting has also moved from Egypt to China, where the O'Connells find themselves in an imbroglio between a 2,000-year-old Han Dystasty emperor (Jet Li) and a double-crossing sorceress (Michelle Yeoh).

The biggest difference, perhaps, is that the director's reins for this film have been handed over to Rob Cohen, whose previous outings include actioners such as Stealth, The Fast and the Furious, xXx, Daylight and Dragonheart. Something to note before picking this film for your roster ... the highest User Rating any of those films got was a 6.2. Keep that in mind.

However you slice it, though, it's still a Mummy movie, and despite the seven-year layover, it's tough to ignore the franchise's past successes. (Then again, how many "Part 3" movies have utterly failed to capture the magic of the first two, resulting in an utter collapse? Beverly Hills Cop 3 comes to mind almost immediately.) I have read a couple of user reviews on IMDb, and they basically say what one might expect. "Mummy rises, mummy wants to rule the world, must stop mummy." Pretty much the same formula as before.

If you believe said reviews, anyone hoping that Fraser will have the same chemistry with Bello that he did with Weisz will be severely disappointed. And Luke Ford, a 27-year-old Australian actor who steps into the role of Rick's son Alex (who was a preteen in the last installment) isn't much better. Jet Li, who in my mind has never had that much charisma, lacks the presence or oily evilness that Arnold Vosloo had as Imhotep. Bottom line: If you are looking for something to kill a couple of hours and aren't looking for anything particularly new or earth-shattering, then you'll probably enjoy Tomb of the Dragon Emperor. If, on the other hand, you're hoping for an adrenaline rush on par with the first two films? I think you'll be disappointed.

So how much will it do? Even Rush Hour 3 did well, so I'll go ahead and pick $100 million in total output. It has no chance to reach $150 million; Cohen is not Sommers, Bello is not Weisz, and August is most assuredly not May. Under no circumstances would I pay $30 for this title in Ultimate, for what Fantasy Moguls believes will give you 11 Top 5 points (that's the absolute max it'll do), seven PTA (don't see that happening), a rating of 5.5 and $105 million in receipts. And $28 in Box Office is not that much better of a bargain. Like I said last week, you'd be better off saving a few bucks and going with The Pineapple Express, which reunites Judd Apatow, Seth Rogen and a lot of illicit substances, which is a formula that hasn't failed yet.

Well, that will do it for me for yet another week. Please return next week when I tackle the aforementioned The Pineapple Express, starring Seth Rogen as a weed-lovin' process server who must go on the lam with his fog-brained dealer (James Franco) after he witnesses a murder perpetrated by a corrupt cop; as well as The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, reuniting Alexis Bledel, America Ferrera, Blake Lively and Amber Tamblyn three years later for a second go-round in their apparently very durable jeans.

TTFN!

If forced to decide a movie election between Kelsey Grammer and Dennis Hopper, Shrykespeare would choose Kevin Costner. Even Stanley Tucci or Nathan Lane would have more movie president je ne sais quoi than Dr. Frasier Crane or Billy from Easy Rider. Tell him who your ideal movie president would be at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Posted at 09:33 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

salva

I think the Mummy 3 will open big around 70-75 and finish with 250 around there

Posted by: salva | July 15, 2008 at 09:47 AM

BanksIsDaFuture

I hope Swing Vote does well - I don't have it on any slates, but it does look like a good movie.

Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | July 15, 2008 at 07:37 PM

Vince

"Swing Vote" reminds me of "Man of the Year" that came out a few years back, and I think that that film's performance might be something to look at to get maybe some sort of idea.

"The Rocker", i hope, becomes a sleeper hit. I think it could do "Accepted" business, and for 4 dollars, that's not bad. The movie itself is not a comedy classic, but its pretty funny (especially Jason Sudekis from SNL, who steals the spotlight from Rainn many times in the film) and i hope it does well.

Posted by: Vince | July 15, 2008 at 11:01 PM

JackO

Tracking has it the other way around. Mummy will do well and Swing Vote is in serious trouble!

Posted by: JackO | July 17, 2008 at 05:02 PM

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