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July 22, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: 'Express' Looks to Be a Hit but Shrykespeare's Not Putting On 'Pants' No Matter How Cheap They Are

by Shrykespeare

Hello once again, and welcome to the latest issue of Bard's Eye View, the place to come for "the skinny" on the latest wide release films. Actually, you know, I've never liked that phrase: "the skinny." How did it start, anyway? Can anyone tell me? Can it be updated for the new millennium? Of course, "the anorexy" doesn't sound quite as hip, but let's give it a shot. Welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, the place to come for "the anorexy" on the latest wide release films. Yeah, that'll work. (Wink.)

Before I get to the three films going wide on the weekend of Aug. 8, 'fess up: How many times have you seen The Dark Knight already? Once? Twice? Three times? Or are you of the same mind-set as Comic Book Guy on The Simpsons, where you have traded three days of your life for the right to claim that you have seen it more than anyone in the entire Universe? One thing's for sure; your answer had better not be "zero," or several million fanboys will be dispatched to your domicile to give your house a thorough egging, complete with the toilet paper drapes and the flaming bag of dog doo on your front porch. Don't say I didn't warn you. (Grin.)

Well, it's been a whole two weeks since a movie has come out that had Judd Apatow's name in the credits, so we're about due for another one. Yeah, I snark, but seriously, it amazes me just how this guy finds a way to wear all of his various hats and still have enough time to, you know, sleep. Since June of last year, he has produced or co-produced no less than seven films, written or co-written the screenplay of four films, and directed one (that being Knocked Up, where he wore all three hats simultaneously). Just incredible.

For Pineapple Express (now set to open Wednesday, Aug. 6, don't forget), however, he merely settled for being the co-writer and co-producer. He let Columbia Pictures hand the director's reins over to David Gordon Green, which is ... a very interesting choice, to be sure. A stoner action/comedy starring Seth Rogen, helmed by the guy whose most recent project (Snow Angels) was a contender for the Grand Jury Prize at the Sundance Film Festival last year? Could it get any more incongruous? Well, I suppose they could've given it to Julie Taymor ... (Shudder)

This is by far the largest budget Green has ever had to play with, and we'll see if he can put his own unique stamp on this film while still maintaining the Apatow "standard" for raunchy comedies. In this story, Rogen (who also co-wrote the screenplay) plays Dale Denton, a slightly-more-than-recreational drug user who goes to see his whacked-out dealer, Saul Silver (played by James Franco of the Spider-Man films) to score a rare new strain of weed called "Pineapple Express." Unfortunately, when Dale accidentally witnesses a murder perpetrated by a notorious drug lord and a crooked cop, he and Saul have to go on the lam.

If The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 is the quintessential chick-flick, then Pineapple Express is its polar opposite: a film for guys, by guys, to be watched by guys in the company of other guys, with no members of the distaff gender within 10 miles. Crude, rude and immature humor abounds (hence its R rating, which I'll get to in a moment), but those who loved Knocked Up and Superbad wouldn't have it any other way. Whereas Knocked Up was really a romantic comedy at heart, however, and Superbad was just a coming-of-age party movie, Pineapple Express is a full-on action film, complete with chase scenes, fights and numerous exchanges of gunfire.

I am going to put my foot down right now (whether it ends up in my mouth down the line, we'll have to wait and see). THIS will be the No. 1 (non-animated) comedy of the season. Yes, granted, it'll have to make $150 million to top Sex and the City, and with Tropic Thunder coming one week later, it'll have its hands full, but I think that when the dust clears, Pineapple Express will emerge victorious. I'd bet on Apatow/Rogen over Stiller/Black any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I don't expect The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor to be very well-reviewed, and I have yet to be convinced that Tropic Thunder will be the overwhelming smash that Fantasy Moguls seems to think it will be. And pretty much everything from Aug. 20 on is going to be hard-pressed to attain blockbuster status. So if you need a second "biggie" to complement Hancock, The Dark Knight or whatever else is on your roster, this is it. It will win its opening weekend by a large margin, pulling in at least $40 million, but possibly higher if the reviews are good. Which, given how stellar they were for Knocked Up, Superbad and April's surprise hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall, should not be a problem.

Fantasy Moguls predicts nine Top 5 points (I say eleven), five PTA (mmm ... okay), a User Rating of 7.1 (no way, it'll be high 7s, as history has shown), and only $80 million in box office, which is a joke, I think it will double that number. Now, granted, you'll have to shell out $27 for this title in Ultimate Movie Moguls ($21 in Box Office Moguls), but I think it will be worth it. It'll do better numbers all the way around than Tomb of the Dragon Emperor or Step Brothers, and even if it gets outdone over the long haul by Tropic Thunder, it'll still run you $17 less. (And from what I've seen, most people have either spent that big wad on either Hancock or The Dark Knight anyway.) And don't let the R rating scare you off. What is often the kiss of death for horror films or Will Ferrell comedies is exactly the opposite for Judd Apatow. For him, R stands for "raunchy," "raucous," "rude" and "rambunctious," and his audience knows it, which is why you'll often find them "rolling" in the aisles. Snap this one up, if you haven't already.

For those of you hoping that I could give you meaningful insight on The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, well, I apologize in advance, because this genre is SO not my arena of expertise. Therefore, if a somewhat forensic analysis is all I can offer you, then so be it. This is a sequel to the 2005 film that achieved only a fair amount of success in the summer of that year. It opened on a Wednesday, June 1, with only a $13.5 million take over its first five days, en route to a total haul of $39 million, a single Top 5 point and a User Rating of 7.0.

Based on the bestselling book of the same name by Anne Brashares (who also co-wrote both screenplays), Traveling Pants tells the story of four girlfriends who must go their separate ways for the first time, but they stay connected by each taking turns using an apparently magical pair of jeans, which fit all of their bodies perfectly despite the fact that the girls are of various shapes and sizes. Traveling Pants 2 seems to be a continuation of the story, with the four girls (now in college) still communicating over the distances between them via their very special pants. What, they can't just text each other?

Ironically, each of the four actresses playing the main characters have had various degrees of television success. Amber Tamblyn (who plays Libby) had a two-season run with the show Joan of Arcadia; Blake Lively (who plays Bridget) is now a regular on Gossip Girl; Alexis Bledel (who plays Lena) had a tremendous eight-year run on The Gilmore Girls; and America Ferrera (who plays Carmen) has made herself a household name as the title character on Ugly Betty.

Now, will all of this recent small-screen success bring more fans to the theaters than the first installment did? It's entirely possible, though I did hear a vicious (but unconfirmed) rumor that some of the actresses were not all that jazzed about doing this sequel, which has the characters "discovering their individual strengths, fears, talents and capacity for love through the choices they make, coming to value more than ever the bond they share and the immeasurable power of their friendship." Granted, that sounds like a nice enough story, but will audiences be more likely to favor this title, or wait a week for Woody Allen's latest, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which is the only other real "chick flick" in August? (No idea, at this time, how wide VCB is going to be released.)

Given the prevalence of much larger movies that will still be going strong on this particular weekend, I will predict The Sisterhood to have basically the same stats as the first one; one Top 5, no PTA, a User Rating around 7.0 and about $40 million in revenues. I wouldn't pay $9 (in Ultimate) for something that will yield such paltry results, as for the same amount of money, you could nab a possible PTA-monger like Brideshead Revisited, Frozen River or Hamlet 2, or possible money-earners like Igor, My Best Friend's Girl or Eagle Eye. The same goes for the $8 you'd pay in Box Office, where you could probably do better with similarly-priced titles like Mirrors, The Longshots, Traitor or (God help me) Disaster Movie. $5 in the June Box Office leagues is about the only price I'd pay for this.

I've got a little room left, so let's chat about The Perfect Game, which is not available in either the June or July Fantasy Moguls seasons. It's entirely possible, however, that Game will be up to bat in August-October leagues, in which case, it's good to have the bases covered. I can't give you any of Fantasy Mogul's predictions, obviously, because there aren't any. Likewise, I have no clue how big a release this film will get, but since Box Office Mojo has the word "Wide" by its name, and since it's trailer has been partnered with WALL-E for several weeks now, I'll assume that it's going to show up on at least 1,000 screens, barring a last-minute Midnight Meat Train-like scenario.

Directed by William Dear, who has helmed films like Angels in the Outfield, Harry and the Hendersons and Timerider (one of my earliest "guilty pleasure" movies), The Perfect Game chronicles the true story of a Little League team from Monterrey, Mexico, that, in 1957, became the first non-U.S. team to win the Little League World Series. Led by their priest (Cheech Marin) and a washed-up former major-leaguer (Clifton Collins Jr.), this team, which couldn't even afford to buy athletic shoes, won 13 consecutive games to claim the championship, the final game of which featured the only "perfect game" in the long history of the LLWS.

Obviously, the theme of "ragtag bunch of misfits who most overcome adversity, poverty and/or bigotry in order to achieve victory and acceptance, and affect change in the status quo" is nothing new, having been done most recently in films such as Glory Road, Coach Carter, Invincible, Gridiron Gang and even, to stretch the point, The Great Debaters. There's nothing wrong with an uplifting underdog story to put oneself in a good mood, especially when the story is a true one. Even the biggest inspirations, however, don't always translate to box office success.

It seems unlikely that Game will get any Top 5 or PTA points given its "wide" release status, and I doubt that the User Rating will be much higher than 7.0. I wouldn't pay more than $2 or $3 for it under any circumstances (in either league type), and only then if I was convinced that the reviews would be good enough to sustain an audience and that the theater count was over 2,000. If not, pass.

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Please return next week, when I will tackle the three films coming out Aug. 15. Fanboys everywhere rejoice, as the heretofore-untold (and really, unasked for) story of what happened between Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith is unfolded for us, albeit in a rather unconventionally animated way, in Star Wars: The Clone Wars. Elsewhere, Woody Allen will attempt to improve his rather sporadic recent batting average with Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a Cannes Film Festival entry that has generated a fair amount of buzz; while Tropic Thunder, bringing together Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr., is virtually certain to be the last big summer blockbuster of 2008.

TTFN!

Did anyone else notice how Shrykespeare said that Alexis Bledel's eight-year run on Gilmore Girls was "tremendous?" Seriously? It was "tremendous?" How about that guy in the backwards baseball hat, Mr. S? Was he "tremendous," too? Give the big softie a hard time for inadvertantly revealing one of his REALLY guilty pleasures at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Comments

Shea Dietz

Uhh, wow is all I can say to how much Shrykespeare knows about chick flicks. He is totally wrong with all the hype its getting from its core audience uhhh CHICKS! This will easily break 25 million Opening weekend. If he really knew what he was doing when he predicts stuff, he should look at both Boxoffice and DVD revenue. It was a HUGE hit a on DVD for weeks and weeks on the charts.

How about Shrykespeare tries to actually investigate before he posts stupid predictions.

Pinneapple Express will have 40 million, but Tropic Thunder is going to give it a run for its money

Posted by: Shea Dietz | July 22, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Brett

Tropic Thunder is going to be riding high on RDJ's Iron Man performance. The trailors for TT came before Iron Man all summer, and after the movie I know that I heard a lot of people saying that they would go see TT based on RDJ's IM performance. The only reason I was so high on TDK was because TT was so many weeks away. I predict $200 Million, 7 PTA, 14 Top 5, and 8.3 IMDB. But only if RDJ can carry the movie away from hamster's Black and Stiller.

Posted by: Brett | July 22, 2008 at 12:18 PM

A_Roode

Interesting points Shea. I was looking for your column so that I could read more but I can't seem to find it anywhere.

Posted by: A_Roode | July 22, 2008 at 01:28 PM

Shrykespeare

Thanks, Roodey. Was this the same person who predicted "Mamma Mia!" would do WAY better business than "Hairspary"? Not looking like it now, is it?

Posted by: Shrykespeare | July 22, 2008 at 05:05 PM

Shrykespeare

And BTW, Shea, I DO do research. More than you probably realize. I make my predictions based on that mixed with instinct... a lot of times I'm right, and quite often I'm wrong. But I've been doing this a while, and you might at least wait until I've been proven wrong before you call my predictions "stupid". I believe I've earned that much.

Posted by: Shrykespeare | July 22, 2008 at 05:13 PM

synestro

HHEEEHEEEE Shryke said "DO do"!

Anyway, Shea, it's one thing to disagree with a columnist, and another to disrespect. I've disagreed with Shryke in the past, but I have always respected him. And with respect to Sisterhood, I wouldn't be surprised with a $45-50M haul, still not worth the $$$$'s.

In regards to last weeks column, I think you were way off base with your $100 million Mummy prediction. I think this one will surprise a lot of people the way Rush Hour 3 did last August and end up with a $175M haul, which will be Jet Li's highest grossing movie ever.

Posted by: synestro | July 22, 2008 at 06:58 PM

JackO

I just realized something. PE opening on a Wednesday is going to hurt it's OW box office. So rather then opening at 30+ on Fri, it'll be spread out over 5 days . . .meaning the door is still open for history. The same thing the week after but the Star Wars name might just put an end to all that.

Posted by: JackO | July 22, 2008 at 08:58 PM

Mark Shaffer

"Amber Tamblyn (who plays Libby) had a three-season run with the show Joan of Arcadia"

Joan of Arcadia was canceled after its second season.

Posted by: Mark Shaffer | July 23, 2008 at 05:17 AM

Squirrel

It's "Pineapple Express," not "THE Pineapple Express"! I was going insane throughout the entire article!

Anyway, if Pineapple Express gets to $160 million domestic, I'll be damn shocked. I'm really excited to see it, but I have a feeling it's going to be very front-loaded; it could struggle to reach $100 million domestic. I hope I'm wrong, but $160 million seems pretty high.

And Shea, you're out of your mind if you think Sisterhood will do that well. I think Shykespeare might be going a little low with the opening weekend number, but it's gonna be very front-loaded; I predict an opening in the teen range, but $40 million domestic sounds about right.

Posted by: Squirrel | July 23, 2008 at 07:01 AM

Shea Dietz

Ok, one, I'm sorry for disrespecting Skrykespeare.

Two, it's not good to say that your "a lot of times i'm right, and quite often i'm wrong." Not good to say.

Three, if anyone here thinks Sisterhood will be frontloaded and will end up with 40 million will be sorry. 60 million is guaranteed.

Pinneapple Express is also opening on a wednesday so it won't break 30 million. If it does, it will do it just barely. There's no doubt it will open well, but with Tropic Thunder the next week gunning for the EXACT same demographic so they may end up cutting eachother's legs apart.

But at the moment, Tropic Thunder has a more consistent star power at the moment, especially with Robert Downey Jr coming off of Iron Man. Stiller has had some misfires, but has had some great success and Jack Black has been consistently funny since School of Rock.

It has more appeal than a stoner comedy (I'm not dissing against it, i think it looks funny) with Seth Rogen which is gaining traction at the moment, but James Franco has no star power at all (ie Annapolis).

Also, (about Sisterhood) why wouldn't this open ABOVE 20 at least. Women have consistently seen movies this summer with Sex and the City and now Mamma Mia!. It all points to more success for Sisterhood.

Posted by: Shea Dietz | July 23, 2008 at 11:36 AM

Serra242

I think everyone's missing something about Traveling Pants. Women aren't going to go see this, girls are. I'm 31 and every female friend I've got is going to avoid this like the plague, just as we did the first one. Sex in the City & Mamma Mia were aimed at women, but this movie looks young and will be pulling most of its money from the 'tween demographic. Just my opinion - love it or hate it, I don't see Traveling Pants doing that well and I'm guessing the studio didn't either since they are cramming 4 books into 1 movie.

Posted by: Serra242 | July 23, 2008 at 12:21 PM

Shea Dietz

The Opening weekend of the first Sisterhood's main audience on average was women at the age of 35. And if it does have the tween and teen demographic so what? When has that demo not brought in the cash? Hello...

Posted by: Shea Dietz | July 23, 2008 at 11:31 PM

JackO

I think Sisterhood, like most of the female driven movies that have came out, from Baby Mama to Sex and the City, have been greatly undervalued this year. The last one got around 40 mill domestically. And yes indeed, Shea is right about the Traveling Pants being a hit on DVD. It reminds me of another movie. Harold and Kumar. They turned an 18 mill grosser into a 38 grosser, so asking for a slight increase to 55-60 isn't that far out of field. It would probably grab most of it's total over the 5 day opening and drop like a ton of bricks the 2nd week. Looks like a solid BO pick.

Posted by: JackO | July 24, 2008 at 10:15 AM

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