WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'TDK' Soars to $76M weekend and Overtakes 'Iron Man' in Just 10 Days!; Ferrell's 'Step Brothers' Strong with $30M; 'X-Files' a Box-Office No-Go with $10M!
by Steve Mason
SUNDAY 8:00 a.m. (Pacific):
3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $75.63 million, $17,322 PTA, $314.24 million cume
2. Step Brothers (Sony) — $30 million, $9,696 PTA, $30 million cume
3. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $17.86 million, $5,974 PTA, $62.71 million
4. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $10.2 million, $3,202 PTA, $10.2 million cume
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $9.41 million, $3,502 PTA, $60.18 million cume
6. Hancock (Sony) — $8.2 million, $2,478 PTA, $206.37 million cume
7. WALL-E (Disney) — $6.34 million, $2,085 PTA, $195.23 million cume
8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $4.93 million, $1,634 PTA, $65.89 million cume
9. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $4.37 million, $1,723 PTA, $16 million cume
10. Wanted (Universal) — $2.72 million, $1,554 PTA, $128.6 million cume
FRIDAY 9:00 p.m. (Pacific): By Monday morning, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) will likely be the No. 1 movie of 2008. Even the rosiest of forecasts could not have anticipated that the Christopher Nolan-directed Batman Begins sequel would surpass Marvel's Iron Man (Paramount) and Lucasfilm's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (Paramount) in only 10 days, but it appears that the dark superhero/crime thriller hybrid will do just that.
After grabbing a remarkable $238.61 million in its first seven days, easily besting the previous mark set by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) by $42.6 million, The Dark Knight seized an estimated $23 million on its second Friday. That makes for a new eight-day cume of $261.61 million, about $50 million more than Dead Man's Chest generated in eight days. That is almost 20 percent better than Johnny Depp's Jack Sparrow sequel at the same point in its release.
None of the usual rules seem to apply to this comic-book adaptation, but I am targeting $77 million for this three-day weekend. If the number holds, The Dark Knight will have $315.61 million banked by Monday morning, which should be just enough to push past Iron Man. Warner Bros. has also taken firm hold of the No. 2 spot in studio market share with $883 million or so. They are within $225 million of Paramount, which will have sold $1.1 billion in tickets.
It once appeared that Paramount, with back-to-back-to-back $200 million grossing movies, would easily be the No. 1 studio in 2008, but the outrageous success of The Dark Knight has made it a real horse race. Paramount has surefire hits Tropic Thunder (Aug. 15) and Madagascar 2 (Nov. 7) still to come, while Warner Bros. counters with Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Aug. 15) and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Nov. 21).
The race could come down to which studio can come up with another breakout hit. Maybe D.J. Caruso's reteaming with Shia LeBeouf on Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) performs like Disturbia? Or Ridley Scott's Body of Lies, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe, breaks out like last year's American Gangster (Universal)?
Will Ferrell and writer/director Adam McKay, who previously joined forces for Anchorman and Talladega Nights, have scored again. Step Brothers (Sony), the generally well-reviewed R-rated comedy, has scored a very strong $11.75 million on Friday. That should translate to an estimated $32.2 million for its opening weekend and a solid No. 2 finish. It also marks the all-time third-best opening for the former Saturday Night Live star Ferrell, trailing only Talladega Nights ($47 million) and Blades of Glory ($33 million).
Mamma Mia! (Universal) is proving to be sturdy in its second weekend. The ABBA-inspired Broadway adaptation has females 25-plus singing in the aisles with an estimated $5.5 million on Friday. Meryl Streep's first movie musical should finish the weekend with $17.6 million or so, for a 10-day cume of $62.44 million. This picture will have no trouble pushing past $100 million.
The reboot of Chris Carter's The X-Files has stumbled out of the gate with an estimated $4 million on opening day. The hit TV series wrapped up its television run in 2002, but the show enjoyed its best ratings in 1998. There have long been questions about how relevant Mulder (David Duchovny) and Scully (Gillian Anderson) would be among Under 25 moviegoers, and the Fox marketing folks have done everything they could to lure a new generation of fans. In the final analysis, The X-Files: I Want To Believe will manage only $11 million or so for its opening three days.
Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) is proving to be a durable family-friendly summer movie with another $2.7 million on Friday and a likely $9.25 million for the weekend. That will give the Brendan Fraser 3D adventure a new domestic cume of just over $60 million. Meanwhile, Will Smith's Hancock (Sony) is holding very strong at No. 6, picking up $2.6 million on Friday for a new cume of $200.67 million. The three-day should be an estimated $7.7 million, and the Peter Berg-directed superhero flick should finish as one of the five highest-grossing movies of the summer.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $23 million, $5,268PTA, $261.61 million cume
2. Step Brothers (Sony) — $11.75 million, $3,798 PTA, $11.75 million cume
3. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $5.5 million, $1,851 PTA, $50.38 million
4. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $4 million, $1,570 PTA, $12 million cume
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $2.72 million, $1,014 PTA, $53.49 million cume
6. Hancock (Sony) — $2.6 million, $786 PTA, $200.77 million cume
7. WALL-E (Disney) — $1.9 million, $624 PTA, $190.78 million cume
8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $1.49 million, $496 PTA, $62.45 million cume
9. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $1.42 million, $561 PTA, $13.05 million cume
10. Wanted (Universal) — $824,000, $469 PTA, $126.71 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $77.4 million, $17,728 PTA, $316 million cume
2. Step Brothers (Sony) — $32.2 million, $10,407 PTA, $32.2 million cume
3. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $17.6 million, $5,888 PTA, $62.4 million
4. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $11 million, $3,454 PTA, $11 million cume
5. Journey To the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $9.25 million, $3,441 PTA, $60.02 million cume
6. Hancock (Sony) — $7.7 million, $2,327 PTA, $205.87 million cume
7. WALL-E (Disney) — $6.46 million, $1,834 PTA, $195.34 million cume
8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $4.7 million, $1,561 PTA, $65.66 million cume
9. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $4.27 million, $1,684 PTA, $15.9 million cume
10. Wanted (Universal) — $2.72 million, $1,547 PTA, $128.6 million cume
Sometimes these numbers are a little low. I'm hoping this is--and that the film pushes closer to 80+ for the weekend. Even so, the new records will be fastest to 300 mil (10 days) and highest second weekend on record, as well as, needless to say, highest 8,9,10 day totals.
Posted by: Jason | July 25, 2008 at 10:56 PM
it's just batman... it's not a masterpiece. jesus... stop jizzing all over yourself and nolan
Posted by: tom | July 25, 2008 at 11:00 PM
Argh, Stupid X-Files! I believed in you and you treat me like this! I betted heavily on it, Why oh why. I guess I wanted to believe..... Haha ok, i'll stop with the bad puns
Hancock is pissing me off though, Hellboy was way better but Hancock makes $200M while Hellboy tops out at $70+.
Posted by: undeadmonkey | July 25, 2008 at 11:01 PM
@author: There's no such movie entitled, "House of Lies."
@undeadmonkey: Those aren't puns.
Posted by: DBag | July 26, 2008 at 01:20 AM
@Dbag: The movie is called 'Body of Lies' ('House of Lies' was the working title of the same movie)
Posted by: Tareque | July 26, 2008 at 06:36 AM
"...the Fox marketing folks have done everything they could to lure a new generation of fans."
Really? Not even remotely...
If only, Steve -- not saying that would've turned the film itself around, but at least people would've been fooled into thinking Fox cared if this swam or sank.
Posted by: indeciSEAN | July 26, 2008 at 08:38 AM
Hancock is Will Smith, while Hellboy is the definition of a fanboy film... Thats why Hancock performs so well while Hellboy only becomes moderately successful. Since when are successful movies the quality ones. Except in the case of The Dark Knight of course, because it is undeniably amazing.
Posted by: geezer9687 | July 26, 2008 at 09:55 AM
X-Files you bitch!
Posted by: Stev | July 26, 2008 at 11:22 AM
eh, if The Dark Knight doesn't hit 80, it's not the end of the world. Just as long as it stays steady throughout the rest of it's run it will be successful. It already outdid any possible thought I could imagine before it was released!
Posted by: JackO | July 26, 2008 at 05:46 PM
"Nolan's masterpiece"? Another that "masterpiece" is the most abused word in modern-day film criticism.
Posted by: friskytiger81 | July 26, 2008 at 10:52 PM
"Nolan's masterpiece"? Another that "masterpiece" is the most abused word in modern-day film criticism.
Posted by: friskytiger81 | July 26, 2008 at 10:54 PM
$77 million is pretty much impossible with a $23 million Friday. I know you don't like to be wrong but come on, at least you could change your prediction from 77 to 73-74. Also, The Dark Knight will have to wait another day to surpass Indy and Iron Man.
Posted by: Alex | July 27, 2008 at 12:01 AM
With 23 Million On Friday I Think It Will Grab Only 65 To 60 Million Look At Wall-E It Did 23 Million And Opened With 63 Million
Posted by: salva | July 27, 2008 at 09:49 AM
Hey all,
A few comments.
*I'm not a film critic, but for my money it is a masterpiece. I'm not a "fanboy." I've never been to Comic-Con. I don't own a comic book. Just a fan of great movies. THE DARK KNIGHT is my favorite movie of the year. For me it is not just a BATMAN movie. I'm not a fan of the comic, the TV series or the previous movies. This is a great crime drama.
*The HOUSE OF LIES vs. BODY OF LIES things is confusing. I read the book, which is BODY OF LIES by David Ignatius. I have no idea why the working title would be different from the name of the book, but the studio has come to its senses and stuck with the name of the bestseller. So after training myself to write the wrong title, they've switched back to the right one.
*As for X-FILES, I'm not sure that anything could've saved it. The TV show is no longer relevant, and it's not been dormant long enough to be retro.
*I think that $77M will be right on, but Alex, I'm wrong all the time. It's impossible to write about this business and avoid being wrong. William Goldman's famous statement is really true: "Nobody knows anything."
Posted by: Steve Mason | July 27, 2008 at 09:49 AM
@Salva
Wall-E earned $23 million on its opening day, opening days tend to be frontloaded so that the saturday and sunday takes are lower than the friday grosses. This wont and hasnt happened for TDK because it is in its second weekend so there is no "fanboy" rush to see it on the friday, so this leaves the film with a larger weekend multiplier. Most sites are putting TDK at $75 million this weekend, which seems about right.
Posted by: A.B | July 27, 2008 at 11:29 AM
Well, it looks like it was somewhere in the middle, between my 74 and your 76 (but I still think Saturday is inflated and it might end up with 74, still an amazing number but not enough to top Iron Man).
Anyway, I guess you are right but sometimes I just feel like you are trying to force some numbers when it becomes clear over the weekend that they won't happen, guess everyone has a little biased devil inside of himself, just like you, I also wanted Batman to be huge but THIS ...no way I was hoping for this much. After being disappointed by Wall-E's take, I thought The Dark Knight might do the same.
Was I wrong or what? I'm always happy to be wrong about something like this, go Batman!
PS: Pretty random rant, I know.
Posted by: Alex | July 27, 2008 at 02:22 PM
When will all the TDK sickly hysteria all end?? I find it amusing that even Hollywood Pundits and Blogs are continuously and intentionally out to hype and make this the record setter it has become. I thought for a moment last week that kids were just in the "Jack Sparrow" syndrome with the "Joker" character but when blogs and some professional critics and people who should know better are out there with their juvenile rantings and raving about the film which by all accounts is just an above standard action flick I wonder why and who might be paying them for it. But I suppose the hysteria will end and hopefully sooner than later. All the bigger screeing rooms are being tied up by this flick and even the newly released film are being shown in smaller screening room. ENOUGH. PLEASE>
Posted by: jdls08 | July 27, 2008 at 02:32 PM
I really just wanted to say that non-fans and fans of the x-files should see the X-files movie. It is one of the best movies of the year -- thought provoking, edge of your seat stuff, really enjoyable. Just check out the scores on boxofficemojo.com -- a lot of other people are giving it A's. You will be pleasantly surprised. Too bad Fox marketing didn't do their job. Looks like they will be the only one without a 100 million dollar hit.
Posted by: jake | July 27, 2008 at 07:30 PM
I'm rolling on the floor laughing right now! Reporting on a film that grossed over 300 mill in 10 days is now "sick hysteria." Silly us for getting a little excited watching things we have never seen before in the history of cinema, but I guess there were haters for Titantic and there will be haters for The Dark Knight.
Posted by: JackO | July 27, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Journey to the Center of the Earth only fell about 21% this weekend. I wonder how that breaks down between 3D showings and 2D showings. It isn't clear to me whether Clone Wars will be showing in 3D theaters and taking the space from Journey in the middle of August or whether Clone Wars is just 3D style animation and will leave Journey playing in many of those 3D theaters (or possibly fighting it out with Fly Me to the Moon for space) if Journey holds up for ticket sales for 3D showings.
Posted by: Darin | July 28, 2008 at 02:45 PM
Jopurney is holding strong thanks to playing in roughly 900-1000 3d screens which charge more than the regular admission. I read somewhere that if broken down, 3d grosses are indeed higher than conventional 2d.
Posted by: jared | July 28, 2008 at 05:07 PM
Hello all,
I am told that fully 2/3 of the business for JOURNEY is from the 3D locations, and there are only 800 or so screens with 3D. There is an upcharge for 3D and that is definitely helping the movie a lot.
Best, Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | July 28, 2008 at 06:50 PM
Thanks Mase. Just some quick calculations. Journey made about $9.7 million on 2688 screens for an average of about $3600 over the weekend. If 2/3rds of the total money was 3D screens with 800 screens, then that works out to ~$8100 PTA on 3D screens and ~$1700 PTA on 2D screens.
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