EARLY TRACKING: 'Step Brothers' Has the Edge Over 'X-Files'!
by Steve Mason
In the wake of The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) and the biggest box-office weekend in movie history, two films roll out this Friday (July 25). The Will Ferrell/John C. Reilly R-rated comedy Step Brothers (Sony) is looking considerably stronger than repeatedly misfiring 20th Century Fox's The X-Files: I Want To Believe.
Industry tracking is decent for Step Brothers, but it is only nominally stronger than February's R-rated Will Ferrell comedy Semi-Pro (New Line), which came up well short of the expectations set by prior Ferrell comedies and opened to just $15 million. In fact, Will Ferrell's only other R-rated comedy, Old School, delivered just $17.45 million back in 2003.
Even, the impeccably-reviewed R-rated 2008 comedy Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) topped out at just $17.72 million in April, although it did go on to generate $62.93 million domestic. The R rating is a real obstacle to posting a big opening weekend number, but Step Brothers will be driven by Males Under 25 and Males 25 Plus, so that will help. As of Sunday (July 20), I am penciling in $17 million-$22 million for this Adam McKay-directed comedy on opening weekend.
It has been 10 years since Mulder (David Duchovny) and Scully (Gillian Anderson) appeared on the big screen in The X-Files: Fight the Future, and the Fox television series, which ran for nine seasons, exited the airwaves early this decade. I was a huge fan of the television series through the 1990s, but the TV show "lost me" at some point in the new millennium, and I was apparently not alone. The final episode of the show aired on May 19, 2002, and it finished only No. 3 in its time slot.
The team at 20th Century Fox would like to reboot the franchise, but it has been uphill all the way so far. The X-Files was at its television ratings peak in 1998. The 18-to-24-year-old moviegoers of today were in the 8-to-14-year-old range when the show was really hot.
Aside from relevance for today's core ticket-buyers, The X-Files: I Want To Believe has the added disadvantage of going toe-to-toe with The Dark Knight. They are both rated PG-13, but one is a record-breaking phenomenon that a high percentage of moviegoers will see twice, and the other feels out-of-date, warmed over and a bit musty.
It is difficult to imagine that The X-Files: I Want To Believe can break out in any meaningful way. At the moment, I am predicting an opening in the $14 million-$19 million range, but I will update my numbers for both X-Files and Step Brothers later in the week.
TDK effect is going to continue for at least 2 weeks. With all the sellouts and re-watches this movie is going to effect every other release for a while!
Posted by: JackO | July 21, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Well those 2 movies picked a bad spot to open with i mean every one is watching TDK at least twice, that is ubtil The Mummy 3 opens
Posted by: salva | July 21, 2008 at 01:22 PM
I forgotten TDK already. Bring on the XFILEs.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 21, 2008 at 04:58 PM
I forgotten TDK already. Bring on the XFILEs.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 21, 2008 at 04:59 PM
"The Dark Knight" was good; very few people would disagree. However, that doesn't mean that "The X-Files: I Want To Believe" is going to tank. It will probably take second place at the box office but still do reasonably well. Remember, there is a huge fanbase out there that has been praying for another "X-Files" movie for years. All the diehard X-Philes are going to ensure that "I Want To Believe" is a success.
Posted by: Tom | July 21, 2008 at 09:51 PM
Even if The Dark Knight falls 66% this weekend (Which it most definitely won't), it will still pull in $52 million over the weekend, and there's no way either of these two films could even compete with that lowball estimate. Not even Talladega Nights got that high, and The X-Files is no Sex and the City; don't expect any surprise blockbuster numbers with this one. Still, I think an opening around $25 million or so is very possible. TV show adaptations usually do very well on opening weekend, even if they collapse afterwards.
Posted by: Squirrel | July 21, 2008 at 10:30 PM
The same people who go to see TDK will be the people who go see X. The problem is, they aren't going to be lined up to see it on opening night when they have a buddy that still hasn't seen TDK: they're taking him to see it for the second or third time. TDK 75 Million, Step 27 Million, X 19 Million, MM 17 Million. Though MM could beat both Step and X if you are looking for another hairspray.
Posted by: Brett | July 22, 2008 at 12:24 PM
X-files will crash Ferrell's movie. Period.
Posted by: Haluk Akin | July 22, 2008 at 07:45 PM
What is the difference in tracking between Semi-Pro and Step Brothers? Or Dewey Cox and Step Brothers? Both of the older movies tracked well but could not carry an R rating. Whats different here? I think 20 is a good guess for Step. 22 for X. 20 for MM. and 69.5 for the Bat.
Posted by: aadams | July 23, 2008 at 10:02 AM