FINAL TRACKING: Warner Bros. Likely to Break Bookings Record with 'Dark Knight' on More Than 9,000 screens! All-Time No. 2 Opening Weekend In Reach; 'Mamma Mia!' Headed for $27M-$32M; 'Space Chimps' a Black Hole!
by Steve Mason
Warner Bros. has pulled off something incredible. Despite the fact that we are in mid-July, my sources are telling me that The Dark Knight will open on more than 9,200 screens, an all-time record for the studio. This is no small feat given that megahits Hancock (Sony) and WALL-E (Disney) are doing huge business, and both Mamma Mia! (Universal) and Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) will open wide this weekend.
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) arrives in theatres Thursday at midnight, and one of the major concerns has been the availability of movie screens at this point in the summer. I am making a distinction here between the number of locations and the number of screens. Sources at competing studios tell me that the long-awaited Batman Begins sequel from Christopher Nolan has a real shot to break the all-time record for most playdates, surpassing the 4,362 locations that opened last May's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney).
The number of actual prints or screens (some locations have digital projection) has been considered critical to the success of The Dark Knight, which has an outside chance of toppling Sony's Spider-Man 3 as Hollywood's all-time opening weekend champ. Spider-Man 3, which grossed $59 million on its opening Friday and reached $151.11 million in its first three days, debuted at 4,252 locations, fewer than the new Batman, but it played on a reported 10,000 screens. That means SM3 played on about 2.35 screens per location. That was, however, on the first weekend in May, when multiplexes have plenty of screens available. Screen counts are treated as "state secrets," but it is likely that Warner Bros. will have The Dark Knight on more screens than any July release in history.
Some prognosticators are calling for more than $151 million and a new opening record, but I am not in that camp. Although industry tracking is in the stratosphere and certainly would support an opening of that size, Spider-Man 3 had more screens because of its early May window. Also, The Dark Knight's 152-minute running time is working against it. That will mean just five showings per day per screen compared to six for movies like WALL-E and Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) and seven for the 92-minute Hancock.
My prediction is that, by Monday morning, the impeccably-reviewed Batman Begins sequel will have the all-time No. 2 opening weekend, surpassing the $135.63 million posted by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) in 2006. The truth is that anything above $110 million would be a staggering success and, regardless of the opening weekend number, I believe that The Dark Knight will have great playability, leading to $300 million domestic. This film has a real shot at topping Paramount releases Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull to become the highest-grossing movie of 2008.
Mamma Mia! (Universal) will likely be the No. 2 movie this weekend. Industry tracking is very solid, reviews are excellent and both Meryl Streep and ABBA have real drawing power. I am calling for $27 million-$32 million, which would be an excellent start. Females 25 Plus are especially excited about this title, and that demo does not always turn out on opening weekend, meaning Mamma Mia! is going to have excellent legs. I believe this is the Hairspray of 2008: a female-skewing mid-summer musical that will surpass $100 million domestic.
It's been a challenging summer for 20th Century Fox. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening will fall short of $70 million domestic, Eddie Murphy's Meet Dave opened to a disastrous $5.25 million last weekend. Now the animated Space Chimps is struggling to get any traction with moviegoers. In fact, its First Choice score in industry tracking is just 2 percent. Granted there are some un-surveyed kids that may show up, but this one will likely finish the weekend in the $4 million-$7 million range.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JULY 18
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $136 million
2. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $30 million
3. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $18.7 million
4. Hancock (Sony) — $17.25 million
5. WALL-E (Disney) — $10.9 million
6. Journey to the Center of The Earth (Warner Bros.) — $10.5 million
7. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $7 million
8. Wanted (Universal) — $6 million
9. Get Smart (Warner Bros.) — $4.3 million
10. Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.65 million
OH....MY....GOD.
Posted by: SotoMojo | July 15, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Oh yes. There will be shattered records.
Posted by: JackO | July 15, 2008 at 11:44 PM
Is Fox really this stupid to go up against Batman and Mamma Mia -- maybe parents will want to take their kids to something less dark, than the dark knight, but who at Fox things they will do well here?
Posted by: jake | July 16, 2008 at 02:09 AM
Nice tracking for The Dark Knight hope it does more than spider-man 3 and dark knight is only about 10 minutes more than spiderman 3
Posted by: salva | July 16, 2008 at 08:18 AM
This is why I didn't pick up Hellboy, despite the fact that I knew it would open. Hellboy and Hancock would be even further in the tank, except that Batman will sell out their screens and people will go see their second choice.
Prediction: this will be the busiest weekend at the theatres this summer, Batman breaks records, and every movie playing against it will benefit from the high turnout.
Posted by: Brett | July 16, 2008 at 08:37 AM
I think Hellboy will have more of a drop off than that. Most of the fanbase for HBII is the same for The Dark Knight.
Posted by: Andy | July 16, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Mase - did you realize that your prediction would shatter the total box office for a weekend record? Looks like DK will also go down in history for making that happen.
I'm so happy for DK that it will open so much higher than the prequel, proving how amazingly good BB really was.
Posted by: Chad | July 16, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Um...no Steve's prediction would not shatter the record because as he stated aboven the record is 151 million held by Spider-man 3
Posted by: Deuce | July 16, 2008 at 01:50 PM
Umm. I'm pretty sure Chad was referring to the Total that all of the films will make for a weekend. Not just the one.
Posted by: SotoMojo | July 16, 2008 at 02:17 PM
Mason, I don't understand why you don't believe that The dark knight will beat Spiderman 3's record? Everything I hear about it is huge. All you people who don't buy tickets and get to the theater and have nothing to see -- go see Wanted
Posted by: Jake | July 16, 2008 at 07:02 PM
That's a lot of the money, Puppy said
Posted by: Aeghast | July 17, 2008 at 10:05 AM
SotoMojo - I didn't think about the entire weekend box office so thanks for that.
Word just in that The Dark Knight will break the record for widest release. It's playing at 4366 locations which is 4 more than POTC 3.
Posted by: Deuce | July 17, 2008 at 01:09 PM
Fox is just distributing Space Chimps and it is in their contract that they have to release it on at least 2000 screens before August 1st; so, the studio is pretty much dumping the movie into the theaters this weekend (just like they dump Meet Dave last week). However, Fox should get a break next week with X-Files 2--which they are actually promoting for a change!
Posted by: Nathan | July 17, 2008 at 03:27 PM
WOW! The Dark Knight's midnight opening was $18.489 million! Looks like the single day box office record will be shattered!
Posted by: Deuce | July 18, 2008 at 01:25 PM