FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: $75M Possible for 'Dark Knight'; 'Step Brothers' Targets $27M-$32M; 'X-Files' Likely Sub-$20M!
by Steve Mason
There is no question about which film will be No. 1 at America's multiplexes this weekend. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) has been posting unprecedented weekday grosses, with $24.5 million on Monday and $20.9 million on Tuesday, and it will easily win the upcoming three-day. The question is how much of a dive will the Christopher Nolan-directed crime thriller/superhero hybrid suffer on its second weekend?
To formulate an answer, let's look at the second-weekend drops for the other 11 movies that have grossed $100 million so far in 2008:
SECOND-WEEKEND SHRINKAGE FOR FILMS GROSSING $100 MILLION IN 2008
1. Kung Fu Panda — 44 percent
2. Horton Hears a Who! — 45 percent
3. Iron Man — 48 percent
4. Get Smart — 48 percent
5. Hancock — 49 percent
6. WALL-E — 49 percent
7. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull — 55 percent
8. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian — 59 percent
9. The Incredible Hulk — 60 percent
10. Wanted — 61 percent
11. Sex and the City — 62 percent
Can TDK manage a drop of just 50 percent? That would give it a spectacular $79 million weekend, and it would soar past the $300 million mark in just 10 days, easily topping the previous all-time best 10-day performance of $258.36 million for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. I am predicting $70 million-$80 million as the box office records continue to fall.
Two new films roll out this Friday. The Will Ferrell/John C. Reilly R-rated comedy Step Brothers (Sony) has improved dramatically in industry tracking, and I am revising my prediction from $17 million-$22 million to $27 million-$32 million.
That would be Will Ferrell's best R-rated opening surpassing Old School ($17.45 million) and this year's basketball-inspired comedy Semi-Pro ($15 million). That would also best Ferrell's previous teaming with director Adam McKay, 2004's Anchorman, which opened to $28.41 million. In fact, Step Brothers could become the second-best opening of Ferrell's career trailing only Talladega Nights ($47 million).
Meanwhile, it's likely to be another tough weekend for 20th Century Fox. After takings some serious lumps on the $5.25 opening for Meet Dave (reported $60 million budget) and $7.2M opening for Space Chimps, the studio is betting on a big budget sequel for the long dormant The X-Files.
I was a huge fan of the TV show, which enjoyed its ratings peak in 1998. The feature film The X-Files: Fight The Future managed an opening just over $30 million in 1998 on its way to about $84 million domestic. The film seemed to take some "steam" out of the TV series, and, by the time it left the airwaves in 2002, its two-hour finale finished only third in its time-slot.
How many core Under 25 moviegoers remember or ever knew who Mulder (David Duchovny) and Scully (Gilliam Anderson) are? According to industry tracking, not enough to make I Want to Believe a hit of any significance. The best case scenario for this reboot of The X-Files seems to be $15 million-$20 million on opening weekend. That would be a real disappointment.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JULY 25
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $75 million
2. Step Brothers (Sony) — $31 million
3. The X-Files: I Want to Believe (20th Century Fox) — $17 million
4. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $16.7 million
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $7.7 million
6. Hancock (Sony) — $7.5 million
7. WALL-E (Disney) — $5.7 million
8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $5.5 million
9. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $4.3 million
10. Wanted (Universal) — $2.5 million
If Semi-Brothers opens that high, then one of the other two films, PE or TT is going kaput. My money would have to be on PE failing in that scenario. And I personally have The Bat going in the 80+ range. Just look at it's weekdays!
Posted by: JackO | July 24, 2008 at 12:28 AM
SEMI-BROTHERS: Not quite Step-Brothers, not quite Brothers.
Posted by: BurtGummer | July 24, 2008 at 08:08 AM
I'm just really doubting that Step-Bros. will get that much this weekend. If it does, I'll be surprised. I'm still trying to figure out what PE & TT are JackO. But overall, I think these estimates are spot on.
Posted by: Derrick | July 24, 2008 at 08:30 AM
Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder, I think.
Posted by: BlackDebbath | July 24, 2008 at 09:04 AM
I think if you were ever an X-files fan you should go out and support this movie. It took them a long while to make and to greenlight.
Posted by: matt | July 24, 2008 at 10:19 AM
I'm thinking that 'Mamma Mia!' might be able to take third place. It has been holding pretty well, all things considered.
Posted by: A_Roode | July 24, 2008 at 01:17 PM
"That would also best Ferrell's previous teaming with director Adam McKay, 2004's Anchorman, which opened to $28.41 million. In fact, Step Brothers could become the second-best opening of Ferrell's career trailing only Talladega Nights ($47 million)."
Talladega Nights was also directed by Adam McKay, thus to beat his previous teaming with McKay, Step-Brothers would have to get $47+.
Posted by: Rob | July 24, 2008 at 01:54 PM
you are too high on stepbrothers. more like 21.5 million.
1. the dark knight 77.5
2. stepbrothers 21.5
3. Mama Mia 17.2
4. x-files 12.8
5. journey 7.1
Posted by: Lester Hayes | July 24, 2008 at 02:31 PM
I like what is see for TDK if this numbers re truw it would have banked in 300 million dollars and be close on outgrossing ironman. But for step brothers I dnt think much box-office because its rated r and that means people well have to buy other tickets to sneak in hurting it box office take
Posted by: salva | July 24, 2008 at 05:57 PM
Salva, are you texting in your messages on a Virgin Mobile pay-as-you-go phone during study hall? Grammar and punctuation make sentences coherent, FYI.
Posted by: John | July 24, 2008 at 08:59 PM
I am weeping, sadly weeping. TDK getting 300m in 10 days and there seems to be no love for "HellBoy2" which in my opinion is one of the best action adventure films of the decade. Its a shame that people have passed on it. Oh well, maybe its projected boxoffice will be better than the 5m many are projecting. Weep..Weep. I know I will get over it.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 24, 2008 at 11:01 PM
Agreed completely, Jdls08. Not that I found Hellboy II to be anywhere near as good as The Dark Knight, but it was a great sequel in its own right, and it's a shame to think it will be forgotten due to the bad timing. Better luck on DVD.
Anyway, not to rain on TDK's parade (No pun intended; you'll understand in a second), but a big reason why it's performing so well during the week (And actually why it got that added boost on Sunday) is because of bad weather. It's been raining like hell this week, and it's got people going to the movies again and again. With good weather in the weekend forecast, $75 million for TDK is pretty optimistic. My guess is that it will cross the $300 million mark by the end of the frame, but I'd be surprised (Pleasantly, I might add) if it made more than $65 million this weekend.
Posted by: Squirrel | July 25, 2008 at 06:49 AM
Hey John Kiss My Ass Hows That For My Writing. And I Was Right About Hellboy Everyone Already Forgot About It. The People Just Needed Something To Watch Before The Dark Knight Opened
Posted by: salva | July 25, 2008 at 09:21 AM
There is an incorrect statement in here that "X-Files" is a "big-budget" movie. The largest estimate I've seen for its budget is $35 million! That's hardly a big budget...even it it's a 'disappointment' it will still be a hit when all is tallied.
Posted by: CJ | July 25, 2008 at 05:50 PM
BOP has X-files at 45 million, huge difference. Guess we will see who is right.
Posted by: Terance806 | July 25, 2008 at 07:03 PM
If The Numbers Are Truw The Dark Knight Will Break Shrek 2s Record For Best 2nd Week 72 Million
Posted by: salva | July 25, 2008 at 08:08 PM