FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: New 'Mummy' Headed for $50M-$55M; 'Dark Knight' Should Top $40M; Costner's 'Swing Vote' Targets $7M-$10M!
by Steve Mason
Brendan Fraser and the long-awaited (by some) return of his Mummy franchise will likely unseat mega-hit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) this weekend. Industry tracking points to a massive opening for the F/X-laden, family-friendly action-adventure movie, and I am targeting $50 million-$55 million. That would be stronger than 1999's original The Mummy, which grabbed $43.36 million, but shy of the $68.13 million start for The Mummy Returns in 2001. For Brendan Fraser, this would mark his all-time second-best opening:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 BRENDAN FRASER OPENINGS
1. The Mummy Returns — $68.13 million
2. The Mummy — $43.36 million
3. Journey to the Center of the Earth — $20.1 million
4. George of the Jungle — $16.54 million
5. Bedazzled — $13.1 million
Director Rob Cohen (xXx, The Fast and the Furious) has added worldwide superstar Jet Li (The Forbidden Kingdom) to the franchise, which could pump up its overseas grosses. Domestically, this film should have no problem reaching $140 million-$150 million.
Meanwhile, The Dark Knight should continue its roll for a very strong No. 2 finish, something in the $39 million-$44 million range. This points out why it is virtually impossible for any film to ever unseat 1997's Titanic ($600 million domestic). The James Cameron-directed Best Picture winner held the No. 1 spot at the box office for 15 consecutive weekends, while The Dark Knight's reign will have lasted just two weeks. Still, the Christopher Nolan-directed Batman Begins sequel has an outside shot at topping the $400 million mark by Monday morning.
Kevin Costner's Swing Vote (Disney) is scoring negligible numbers in industry tracking, and it will have a tough time exceeding $10 million. The Oscar-winning Costner, who took home the Best Director statue for Dances With Wolves, has a lot riding on this movie. He stars, produces and put up $20 million of his own money to make this little movie. Realistically, though, Costner has never been a huge box office sensation:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 KEVIN COSTNER OPENINGS
1. Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves — $25.62 million
2. Waterworld — $21.17 million
3. The Guardian — $18 million
4. Message in a Bottle — $16.75 million
5. The Bodyguard — $16.6 million
I have always been a fan of Costner, and he is especially good when he plays the flawed, reluctant hero as he did in films like Bull Durham and Tin Cup. This new film would seem to be right up his alley, in that regard. I am calling for $7 million-$10 million this weekend, but the 25 Plus demos, never Early Attenders, may give Swing Vote decent legs in coming weeks.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUG. 1-3
1. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $55 million
2. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $41.75 million
3. Step Brothers (Sony) — $16 million
4. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $11.75 million
5. Swing Vote (Disney) — $8.8 million
6. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $6.5 million
7. Hancock (Sony) — $4.7 million
8. The X Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $4.5 million
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $4.2 million
10. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (Universal) — $2.65 million
Mase you might want to add Journey To the centre of the Earth at number 3 on Brendan Fraser's top 5 opening list
Posted by: A.B | July 29, 2008 at 10:28 AM
I think everything is about right, although I don't think Swing Vote will have much legs, the market is crowded and it looks terrible.
Posted by: Stev | July 29, 2008 at 10:40 AM
I Think That The Mummy 3 Will Open Around 70 Million
Posted by: salva | July 29, 2008 at 12:58 PM
hi steve or should i call you traitor you said that you,d predided dark knight
the winner and now at the last minute you decide the mummy 3 the winner these are one of the reason why you and this site suck here are my predictions and before i say the predidtion i apaulaguzie to you i admire you but the site writes some of the worst articles of all time and this one is no exception and now the predidtions
the dark knight 58 millon
mummy 3 55-57 millon
and salva 70 millon for the mummy 3 ohh please let me tell you why it won;t beat the dark knight 1 rob cohen is one of the worst the only movie i like of his is xXx so steve did you only predict this because breden fraser is in well all i am saying is that mummy 3 won,t beat dark knight
Posted by: chrism | July 30, 2008 at 04:44 AM
Steve,
If you could say anything in your blog about what's going on with Midnight Meat Train, that would be great. It is being released in a lot of discount theaters on opening weekend, which is something I have never heard of. Either this is a bizarre marketing strategy, or it confirms the rumors floating around that Lionsgate is fulfilling the bare minimum of a contractual obligation to release it 100 theaters. The story goes that the new head of LG is killing the pet projects of the previous head, and based on this, I'm ready to believe it.
The movie has great buzz, looks interesting based on the trailer, and should conceivably compete in a market starved enough for authenticity in horror movies to drive $50 million domestic for The Strangers. Putting it in dollar theaters before giving it a chance seems self-destructive. If you have any connections at Lionsgate and could in any way enlighten your readers, it would be appreciated.
Posted by: Bentley | July 30, 2008 at 08:54 AM
Mason Mason...you need to get your numbers right and edit your work before you post. There are so many grammar mistakes and number mistakes throughout almost every one of your posts it doesn't seem right. I don't want to bash you for it, I just want you to proofread your work AND THEN post.
Posted by: Shea Dietz | July 30, 2008 at 10:33 AM
I think you are way off on the Mummy. Nobody knocks the bat off the top spot until Tropic comes out.
My predictions:
TDK - 45 mil
The Mummy - 35-40 mil
Step - 19-23 mil
Mamma Mia - 12-16 mil
Swing - 11-15 mil
Brenden Frasier: Great actor, or greatest actor? :-)
Posted by: Brett | July 30, 2008 at 01:19 PM
I don't see why you attack him for changing his predictions, would you rather have him feed you old numbers he was guessing before this latest tracking? And in the end it's all guesswork and none of these numbers are the final answers. In the end Mason seems to only be a few percentages off at most and that's pretty fucking good in an uncertain market like this.
Posted by: BlackDebbath | July 30, 2008 at 03:06 PM
Dear Chrism
That was possibly the worst attempt at english i've ever seen, go directly to school, do not pass go and do not take $200. You're also completely wrong, $58 million for TDK? erm..no.
Anyway, i personally think the Mummy will underpreform, the reviews coming in are terrible and it doesnt look as good as the first film or have the anticipation that the second film had. Here are my predictions:
1.The Dark Knight - $40 million
2.The Mummy 3 - $34 million
Posted by: A.B | July 30, 2008 at 03:13 PM
It will be interesting to see how review proof this Mummy movie is. So far it is no thumbs up with twelve thumbs down on rottentomatoes.com with an average of 3.6/10. I thought the funniest review comment I read was the one that said this Mummy movie made the 1st two seem like Godfather I and II.
Posted by: Darin | July 30, 2008 at 08:01 PM
There is zero buzz for this. The critics are destroying it. The Dummy is going to bomb.
Posted by: JackO | July 30, 2008 at 09:27 PM
Steve
You also didn't think that The Dark Knight would make 158 million. I don't understand why people have to keep talking about how it's gonna beat titanic anyways. It's not enough that it is breaking records left and right.
Mummy reviews are AWFUL, do you think a 175 million dollar movie can be that bad -- only 12 reviews on rottentomatoes and all bad.
Posted by: Jason | July 30, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Since when do the under 25 crowd listen to or even read reviews. Or the under 35 crowd for that matter. The Mummy 3 will do good boxoffice. It is critic proof. I happen to think Brendan Fraser is an excellent actor so I hope it will be a big hit.
Posted by: jdls08 | July 31, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Here's how I see it going: The Mummy will be the winner this weekend, defeating Batman by a good $5-$10 million. However, it will drop like a rock next weekend, falling to either third or fourth while Batman remains in second place behind Pineapple. It's going to be extremely front-loaded; my guess is that the OW will make up 38-45% of the total gross.
I work at a movie theater and I saw The Mummy III at midnight last night; it was one of the worst films of the year, probably even worse than Journey to the Center of the Earth. I think opinions are going to be mixed, even among the general public. I'll post the complete crowd reports for Batman and Mummy tonight.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 01, 2008 at 07:13 AM
Mummy 3 a watered down version of the first two Mummy movies OR The Dark Knight the Movie event of 2008. Which would rather spend your money on?? Me and the girlfriend will go see the Dark Knight for a third time, can wait for the DVD for Mummy 3.
Posted by: Larry King | August 01, 2008 at 06:36 PM
Isn't there a chance that TDK will end its regular run around $450m-$500m domestic and then get nominated for best picture and possibly have a second run adding another $100m to beat Titanic?
Posted by: Menkey | August 01, 2008 at 06:44 PM
By the time awards nominations come, TDK will be on DVD/Blu-Ray.
Posted by: jared | August 01, 2008 at 06:48 PM
@ Menky
No.
The only films that really benefit at the box office from oscar nominations are the smaller films that less people know about, the oscars raise thier profile which gets the film more awareness so more people go see it. Everybody already knows TDK is out, and oscars are next year anyway, TDK will be out of theatres by october.
All this talk of it beating Titanic in the first place was ridiculous, it was never going to go close, a film would need a $200 million opening and great legs to beat Titanic today. TDK will finish between $470 and $500 million.
Posted by: A.B | August 01, 2008 at 06:54 PM
I think the whole comparison between DK and Titanc is a little over blown at this point, Yes DK in my opinion is a far superior film, but Titanic had so much more going for it, I was in 7th grade when Titanic came out, For the Dicaprio factor alone i know girls in my age group saw it in the theater time and time again, what hasnt been brought up a lot is the fact that the movies of 97 and 98 was crap, i remember "Lost in Space" was the one to finally take Titanic from the top spot-ARE YOU KIDDING ME? DK will finish its run with roughtly 515 million dollars domestic, score between 8 and 10 oscar nominations with probably 5 wins, 4 coming in technical categories with the 5th, going to Heath Ledger- while it should get a best picture nomination i just do not see this happening yet, But DK is setting up for great things to come for comic book movies, this movie shown that with the right mix it can be a compelling crime genre.
Posted by: Kyle | August 01, 2008 at 07:20 PM
It would be interesting to have all time-blockbusters that went pppft after the first week.
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