SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: Hollywood Likely to Set a New All-Time Box Office Record in 2008!
by Steve Mason
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.), which has generated an estimated $315 million since opening 10 days ago, has provided a huge boost to the film industry. 2007 was a record-breaker for the business with a total domestic take of $9.65 billion, almost 5 percent better than 2007. The current year is at $5.66 billion so far, which is less than 1 percent behind last year's pace.
The final five months of 2008 look very strong, and I believe that Hollywood will set a new all-time box office record, proving once again that the movie business is recession proof. Gas prices have led to more "staycations," and at a national average of just over $7 for a movie ticket, a trip to the local multiplex remains a very good value.
In 2007, the August-thru-December period included four films that went on to gross $200 million or more, 10 movies that ultimately surpassed $100 million domestic and 13 titles that topped $75 million:
TOP GROSSING FILMS — FINAL FIVE MONTHS OF 2007
I Am Legend (Warner Bros) — Opened Dec. 14, $256.39 million cume
The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) — Opened Aug. 3, $227.47 million cume
National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — Opened Dec. 21, $219.96 million cume
Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) — Opened Dec. 14, $217.32 million cume
Juno (Fox Searchlight) — Opened Dec. 5, $143.49 million cume
Rush Hour 3 (New Line) — Opened Aug. 10, $140.12 million cume
American Gangster (Universal) — Opened Nov. 2, $130.16 million cume
Enchanted (Disney) — Opened Nov. 21, $127.8 million cume
Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) — Opened Nov. 2, $126.63 million cume
Superbad (Sony) — Opened Aug. 17, $121.46 million cume
The Bucket List (Warner Bros) — Opened Dec. 25, $93.46 million cume
The Game Plan (Disney) — Opened Sept. 28, $90.63 million cume
Beowulf (Dreamworks/Paramount) — Opened Nov. 16, $82.19 million cume
I am projecting that this year's August-thru-December period will feature at least two films that grab $200 million or more, 11 movies surpassing $100 million domestic, and two more that seem certain to get past $75 million. Plus, there are seven more "wild card" titles with real breakout potential:
$200 MILLION CLUB
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — Opens Nov. 7
Everyone at DreamWorks Animation is very high on this one. The original 2005 movie finished with a domestic haul $193 million (and grabbed an additional $339 million overseas), and this one has a real shot at $200 million.
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Warner Bros.) — Opens Nov. 21
There is a guaranteed $250 million in a Harry Potter movie. The last November release in the series was Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, which hit $290 million. It is fair to expect something in that range.
$100 MILLION CLUB
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — Opens Aug. 1
This franchise revival should easily top $100 million in its U.S. theatrical engagements. Industry tracking looks exceedingly solid, and Brendan Fraser has the "family-friendly action star" thing down pat.
Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — Opens Aug. 15
I long ago tapped this as the late summer's biggest hit. Robert Downey Jr. will have his second consecutive $100 million movie, and look out for Tom Cruise, who reportedly steals a lot of laughs.
Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — Opens Aug. 15
My guess is that anything with Star Wars in the title and the George Lucas seal of approval is good for at least $100 million.
High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — Opens Oct. 24
No-brainer. The Disney Channel phenomenon comes to the big screen and $100 million is a certainty. The on-again, off-again real-life romance of Zac Efron and Vanessa Hudgens will make great copy, and director Kenny Ortega has this formula down.
Quantum of Solace (Sony) — Opens Nov. 7
Bond is Bond, and Daniel Craig is the best version since Sean Connery. I do not love the title, but my gut says it will be the biggest James Bond movie ever.
The Day the Earth Stood Still (20th Century Fox) — Opens Dec. 12
I saw the trailer on the big screen for the first time before The Dark Knight, and the audience seemed to respond well. I have my reservations, namely Keanu Reeves as Klaatu, but there is always room for an aliens attack/end of the world movie with a lot of great F/X.
Seven Pounds (Sony) — Opens Dec. 12
Will Smith has eight consecutive $100 million grossing hits, and I do not think that streak will be broken here. Director Gabriel Muccino and the rest of the creative team from The Pursuit of Happyness return with the world's biggest star in tow, and it cannot — make that Will not — miss.
Yes Man (Warner Bros.) — Opens Dec. 19
Jim Carrey is coming off of The Number 23, his weakest live-action film since The Majestic, but he is returning to his foolproof brand of comedy. Funny premise (a man vows to say "yes" to everything for a year). A life-affirming, feel-good movie for the holidays. Feels like a very safe bet to nab $100 million or more.
Bedtime Stories (Disney) — Opens Dec. 25
In the same slot as 2006 smash Night at the Museum, Adam Sandler stars in a family-friendly story about a handyman whose bedtime stories begin to become real. Directed by Hairspray director Adam Shankman.
$75 MILLION CLUB
Pineapple Express (Sony) — Opens Aug. 6
Huge buzz. The formerly humorless James Franco reportedly steals the show with an outrageously funny performance. This picture has an outside shot at cracking $100 million.
Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — Opens Oct. 3
Part of what should be a huge fourth quarter for Disney. Talking chihuahuas, Disney’s marketing machine and an all-star Latino voice cast should bring 'tweens and families — especially Latino families. Salma Hayek, Andy Garcia, Edward James Olmos, Cheech Marin, Paul Rodriguez and George Lopez lend their voices, along with Drew Barrymore. There is at least $75 million in this family film.
WILD CARDS CLUB (COULD BREAK OUT)
Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — Opens Sept. 26
Director D.J. Caruso and Shia LaBeouf, who scored a surprise hit with Disturbia, reteam on a thriller coming to theaters in late September.
Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) — Opens Sept. 26
Spike Lee's World War II drama about four African-American soldiers sounds uplifting, but his venomous back-and-forth with Clint Eastwood has taken some of the shine off of this project. Lee's last movie, Inside Man, was his most accessible film yet.
Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — Opens Oct. 10
Oscar winner William Monaghan (The Departed) has adapted the excellent David Ignatius novel of the same name. With director Ridley Scott, and Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe in the lead roles, this picture could break out the way R-rated titles like The Departed and American Gangster have the last two years in this release slot.
W (Lionsgate) — Opens Oct. 17
It is certain to be much talked-about, especially coming a few weeks before the presidential election. This is an A-list cast, and Oliver Stone's typically creative version of the truth, and it may score big.
Bolt (Disney) — Opens Nov. 26
With at least 800 3D locations (probably more by late November) and Miley Cyrus providing one of the voices, this animated movie will be a big family event for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Twilight (Summit Entertainment) — Opens Dec. 12
I have not read the books that spawned this film (probably because I am not a teenage girl), but there is no question that there is a huge audience waiting with bated breath for the first in a planned series of adaptations of Stephenie Meyer's novels of young vampire-human love. Hard to say how big the film will be, but it certainly has a shot at $75 million.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) — Opens Dec. 19
Brad Pitt stars as a man who begins aging backwards. With a script by Oscar winner Eric Roth (Forrest Gump, The Insider) and directed by David Fincher (Zodiac), there is a real Oscar pedigree here, and there could be significant commercial upside.
You forgot about Twilight opening in December. That will be a guaranteed 75mil+. You also have Yes Man which is a return to form for Jim Carrey that could do at least 75mil if Dick and Jane could.
Posted by: Steven | July 28, 2008 at 02:25 PM
ben stiller isn't in bedtime stories, adam sandler is. clone wars may fall short of 100 million.
last summer's top 6 films:
1. Spiderman 336.5
2. Shrek 322.7
3. transformers 319.2
4. pirates 309.4
5. h.potter 292
6. bourne 227.5
TOTAL: 1,807.3
this summers top 6 projections
1. The Dark Knight 525
2. Iron Man 317.5
3. Indiana Jones 317
4. Kung Fu Panda 217.5
5. Wall-E 217
6. Sex & the City 152.5
TOTAL: 1,746.5
Posted by: Lester Hayes | July 28, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Mase, to let you know Sandler stars in BEDTIME stories, not Stiller.
Anyway, I HAVE to agree with you on Chihuaha unfortunately. It is the only thing in MONTHS that has a kid rating, but I don't think it will reach that high at all. $40M range for me.
I saw POTTER will crack closer to $300M than 200.
PINEAPPLE I can't see doing that high (even though the movie is hilarious), I feel it is in a bad position.
All your wildcards seem like $100M hits to me minus W. I see that thing being an enormous flop.
Posted by: Ryan | July 28, 2008 at 04:36 PM
Hi all,
As always, you are my best editors. I don't have anyone editing my stuff and catching mistakes.
Yes, BEDTIME STORIES is Adam Sandler, and I'm sticking with $100M+.
I agree on YES MAN. I've added it to the $100M+ list.
Not fully sold on TWILIGHT. I made it a Wild Card. Could be $75, but, especially after the wild reception at Comic-Con, it has a chance to break out.
Best, Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | July 28, 2008 at 06:26 PM
Hey Lester You Forgot About Hancock It Already Outgrossed Sex And The City. And Harry Potter Has A real Chance At 300+ But I Know For Sure It Will Be The Number 1 Movie WorldWide 900+
Posted by: salva | July 28, 2008 at 07:15 PM
thank you for the correction salva.
corrected
last summer's top 6 films:
1. Spiderman 336.5
2. Shrek 322.7
3. transformers 319.2
4. pirates 309.4
5. h.potter 292
6. bourne 227.5
TOTAL: 1,807.3
this summers top 6 projections
1. The Dark Knight 525
2. Iron Man 317.5
3. Indiana Jones 317
4. Hancock 225
4. Kung Fu Panda 217.5
5. Wall-E 217
TOTAL: 1,819
Posted by: Lester Hayes | July 28, 2008 at 08:20 PM
Mase, as someone who has read and LOVED the books, you are right to be wary of Twilight. It will either explode or bomb, there is no lukewarm for this one. Personally I have hated the portrayals shown in the current trailer, I'm holding out to make up my mind whether i will see it or not till we get a better trailer!
Posted by: Becs | July 28, 2008 at 08:29 PM
i think Marley and Me is 100+ the book is great and it sold more than 3 million copies
Posted by: twice | July 29, 2008 at 04:14 AM
I still don't believe in Tropic Thunder. I think it'll stall out at around $60-$70 million.
Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | July 29, 2008 at 09:38 AM
hey, is anyone else unable to create a studio for the upcoming new season (the one that should begin this coming friday)? the only option i have in the drop-down menu is july 2 - sep 29.
Posted by: Chris | July 29, 2008 at 10:09 AM
I was able to create an August-October studio but does anyone know what happened to the PTA and Top 5 forecasts?
Posted by: Serra242 | July 29, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Hey Mase You Forgot About Four Christmases Last Year Vince Vaughn Was In Fred Clause And It Took Around 70 Million. Vince Vaughn Is In Four Christmases So I Think It Could Reach Those Numbers
Posted by: salva | July 29, 2008 at 02:32 PM
Eagle Eye I think can do $100 million. DreamWorks has been promoting it heavily since May.
I think Righteous Kill could be a surprise hit. You can't go wrong with De Niro and Pacino.
I don't see W or Benjamin Button doing that well. W I think came too soon (Stone probably should have waited five to ten years) and Benjamin Button gave away too much in the teaser.
I agree that Tropic Thunder won't be a blockbuster. Satires on the entertainment industry don't do well and Tom Cruise's name may spell doom for its box office prospects.
I can see Twilight beating both The Day The Earth Stood Still and Seven Pounds. The Day The Earth Stood Still could see a negative reaction (though I'll see it because of my Jennifer Connelly fandom) and Seven Pounds seems too highbrow for Smith's target audience. Meanwhile, Twilight is a best-selling book series and Sex and The City proved that chick flicks can still sell. Plus, come Halloween the advertising machine should be at full speed.
Posted by: Buscemi | July 29, 2008 at 06:57 PM
Tom Cruise has a CAMEO in Tropic Thunder. He isn't, nor is he being advertised as, one of its stars. There is NO way his name alone spells doom for the film.
Posted by: dranscht | July 29, 2008 at 09:26 PM
But people already know he's in and his crazy persona has already threatened to sue over pictures of his heavily made-up character. The backlash begins again?
Posted by: Buscemi | July 29, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Just to throw in my two cents:
"Pineapple Express" should change places with "Clone Wars"; I truly think that "Express" will break $100 mil, while the latest "Star Wars" film will be a long shot to do so, especially since a lot of people are divided about the art style (hell, there are a boatload of people who still don't know that there's a new Star Wars movie out in a few weeks).
"Eagle Eye" I hope will break out, "Twilight" might do so too, but "Bolt" is the biggest sure bet if I've ever seen one- it will do at least "Chicken Little" business, if not more.
Posted by: Vince | July 30, 2008 at 02:49 PM