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July 16, 2008

SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: Competing Studio Exec Calls 'The Dark Knight' a "Game Changer for IMAX"!

by Steve Mason

Multiple sources confirmed Wednesday, what I first speculated about Tuesday night. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) will open at more locations than any film in motion picture history, surpassing the 4,362 locations that opened last May's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Disney). The final number of playdates will be 4,366. This is not necessarily a bulletin. Execs at competing studios have been murmuring about this possibility for weeks.

Ultimately, it is the screen count that is most critical to determining the size of The Dark Knight's opening weekend. When Spider-Man 3 (Sony) debuted on the first weekend in May last year, it seized fewer playdates (4,252), but it opened on an estimated 10,000 screens. That means that SM3 opened on about 2.35 screens per location.

A ratio like that is, frankly, not possible in the month of July, especially with two other wide releases, Mamma Mia! (Universal) and Space Chimps (20th Century Fox), bowing on the same day. (Remember, the only other wide release that took on SM3 was Curtis Hanson's poker yarn Lucky You, which generated just $2.7 million on opening weekend.)

Although screen counts are generally regarded as "state secrets," sources at competing studios have put The Dark Knight's number of screens at 9,200 or more, which I reported on Tuesday. That is a studio record and, likely, the biggest screen count for any movie to open in the month of July and a screens-per-location ratio of 2.1. That is pretty extraordinary given that films like Hancock (Sony), WALL-E (Disney) and Hellboy II (Universal) are holding very strong. One source at a rival studio conceded to me that Warner Bros has "hit this one out of the park" and that they are "getting every possible dollar out of a really good movie."

I spoke to another competing studio exec yesterday who predicted that The Dark Knight "will be a game-changer for IMAX." He believes that the IMAX scenes look spectacular, but also shooting in the big camera format will add to the movie's "playability." That is his way of saying that an above average number of moviegoers may see The Dark Knight twice.

Warner Bros. told The Hollywood Reporter that the presale for its 94 IMAX locations is at $3.5 million as of Wednesday. The always-innovative Christopher Nolan had wanted to shoot with 70MM IMAX cameras for years, and finally succeeded with his Batman Begins sequel. About 20 minutes of the new movie is shot with those cumbersome IMAX cameras that have a very short load time — not an easy thing to do.

Critics have hailed the IMAX sequences saying, essentially, "You haven't seen The Dark Knight until you've seen it in IMAX." Because so many of the IMAX showings for this weekend are already sold out, many moviegoers will see the film in its conventional 35MM format on opening weekend, and then go back to see the movie again in IMAX starting as soon as Monday.

My final prediction for The Dark Knight is not budging. I am calling for $136 million, above Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($135.63 million) and behind Spider-Man 3 ($151.11 million), giving it the all-time No. 2 biggest opening weekend. I also see Heath Ledger's final performance helping to deliver $300 million in domestic box office, making it one of the Top 3 movies of 2008, although the odds are increasing that it will overtake Paramount films Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull to become the No. 1 movie of the year in the US.

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Posted at 10:36 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

I can definitely see this being true. Heck, I'm going to be one of those seeing this weekend in a standard theater, then next week on IMAX. In my case, I'm soooo wanting to see it in IMAX that I'm driving 2.5 hours to the nearest IMAX that's showing it. There is one IMAX about six blocks from my house, but it's run by a museum/planetarium and never shows theatrical releases, just the science-y stuff :/.

Posted by: critter42 | July 17, 2008 at 12:18 AM

Mr. Mason,

I love your articles. I read them at least once a week. However, I would love for some tracking numbers on the new "X-Files" film. I haven't heard anything about it and it comes out in a week!

Posted by: Tom | July 17, 2008 at 01:08 AM

I would think that the IMAX sales would make more than $3.5 million.
94 theaters X 18 showings X 450 seats X $15 ticket price is $11.421 million. However since most of the IMAX showings are sold out, it will be hard to get much more than the $3.5 milion it already has.

Posted by: J.I. | July 17, 2008 at 10:27 AM

Hey J.I.m I'm not an expert on IMAX or anything, but I think you maybe overshooting on the numbers for the showings and seats.

Posted by: SotoMojo | July 17, 2008 at 05:52 PM

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