TIP OF THE WEEK: Bargains Galore or 'My Best Friend's Girl' Met 'Igor' at 'Lakeview Terrace' and Now She Has an 'Accidental Husband'
by Mister Informative
Greetings, Moguls! Welcome to the Tip of the Week. Since The Dark Knight is the most expensive piece of property in the July-September season, if you've got it on your slate you'll need to scour the bargain bin for some nice cheap value picks. That way, you can maximize returns with your remaining funds, and maybe even leave room for a nice mid-range pick or two. With that in mind, this week I've scraped the bottom of the price barrel, and I've got a 12-pack of recommendations for you — the six best available films, in both Ultimate Movie Moguls and Box Office Moguls leagues, priced at $8 or less
To jazz things up a little, I've included one Super Deal Spotlight — the best choice that'll cost you just $2 — on each list. It sounds even more exciting if you think of it like a Daily Double, or like precisely guessing actual retail value on The Price Is Right. Think of the cheering, the frenzied crowd! Okay, maybe that's just in your own head, but in any case, here are the lists:
ULTIMATE BEST BARGAINS
6. Lou Reed's Berlin (July 18; $7) — Like Martin Scorsese before him, Oscar-nominated director Julian Schnabel takes a concert film/documentary of a music legend as his next project. The potential for PTA is high, as it's the only Moguls-eligible indie that's being released at just a handful of locations that weekend. (Early estimates have Hounddog at 400 theaters.) There are two wide-release films that could sweep past Lou Reed to the top of the PTA pile: The Dark Knight and Mamma Mia. I'm also just a bit worried that this might have Shine a Light syndrome — a great director with a star musician as his subject matter, but the audience just never materializes. It's got a superb 8.0 IMDb score as of now, so at least there's that benefit, and I do think it'll pull a few PTA points. Probably only three at most, and I think you can get better results by spending just one more dollar. Still, if $7 is all you've got and you want some PTA, I'd invest it here.
5. Bangkok Dangerous (Sep. 5, $4) — Nice mullet, Nicolas Cage. Did you film this concurrently with Next? In any case, Bangkok Dangerous, a remake of a 1999 Thai film of the same title (made by the same directors) won't net you a LOT, but you can still count on modest returns for a pretty cheap fee. It occupies the beginning-of-September action movie time slot previously home to Shoot 'Em Up ($12 million), Crank ($27 million) and Transporter 2 ($43 million). It also bears some resemblance to last year's WAR ($22 million). I think you can expect something similar here; maybe around $10 million opening and a few Top 5 points, on the way to $20-30 million total — especially given the lack of anything that looks remotely strong in the two weeks prior. Bangkok Dangerous was originally scheduled for Aug. 22, but I'm guessing Lionsgate moved the date in order to avoid going head to head with late-summer-action-film veteran Jason Statham's Death Race. Probably a good move. I've heard someone excitedly describe Bangkok Dangerous as being "just like Sin City," and I chuckled because that's clearly not going to be the case. Still, it'll give you a small boost without siphoning off too much cash.
4. Brideshead Revisited (July 25; $8) — If this were The $100,000 Pyramid, I'd say: period drama, based on a book, Miramax is the distributor and Indie Jones recommends it. And — bam! — you'd win the prize, because the answer would be easy: Things that mean a movie has a good chance of earning PTA points. Though this remake (or, to be more accurate, re-adaptation) might have had more commercial potential with its originally attached cast — including Paul Bettany, Jennifer Connelly and Jude Law, all of whom left the project after director David Yates did — I think it'll still be fine on the PTA front, and the IMDb score will surely impress as well. And the cast still isn't shabby by any means: Matthew Goode (who we haven't seen in much since Match Point), Emma Thompson and even Albus Dumbledore himself, Michael Gambon, all make appearances. All that's missing is period drama queen Keira Knightley! I'm kidding. Brideshead Revisited doesn't need her in the cast to have success.
3. Babylon A.D. (Aug. 29; $4) — Think Children of Men, only a little more sci-fi and a with way more action. It's also Vin Diesel's ... triumphant? ... return to the big screen in his first role since his cameo in The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift. On Earth of the future, Diesel plays a mercenary-for-hire (what other man would be hardened enough for him to play, really?) hired to smuggle a woman across several countries with a lot of explosions, high-tech weaponry and evil counteragents blocking their path. It was originally scheduled for February, where I think it could have performed moderately well, a la Ghost Rider or Jumper, but is now in August, an often equally lackluster month for film. All the same, I think the lack of stiff competition at the end of the month means Babylon A.D. can earn much more than the projected 1 Top 5 point. It might even have the stuff to win its opening weekend. Delays in production and an inflated budget that almost shut down filming are potential red flags, possibly a reason to consider something else. It's only $4, however, so there are far more damaging choices you could make.
2. Hamlet 2 (Aug. 22; $8) — Admittedly, one thing this film has going against it is that it might be misconstrued as being an actual "sequel" to the Shakespeare play. I'll admit, upon first seeing the title, that's what came to my mind. But a Hamlet sequel is just the story within the story, and I think Hamlet 2 will boast the highest PTA of any film on its opening weekend. With a scheduled expansion the next week, it might even have decent box office prospects, and if you're picking it primarily for PTA, any significant box office gross is just gravy. It's currently the only limited release on Aug. 22, and with no small releases on Aug. 29 either, Hamlet 2, provided the expansion isn't TOO large, and that the film benefits from good word-of-mouth, might pick up PTA points two weeks in a row. For $8, that's fantastic value, even if the IMDb score (currently at 5.4) leaves a little to be desired.
1. SUPER DEAL SPOTLIGHT! Righteous Kill (Sep. 12; $2) — Distributor Overture Films has really had only one hit in its short career: The Visitor. Their last stab at a wide release, Mad Money, didn't work out so well. But their upcoming releases include Henry Poole Is Here and Traitor, and with the star power of Robert De Niro and Al Pacino driving Righteous Kill, I think their luck may be starting to change for the better. Sure, Righteous Kill may not outdo Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys, or even the Coen Brothers's Burn After Reading, but I know it will have more success than director Jon Avnet's last movie, 88 Minutes. (Coincidentally, are he and Pacino, like, best buds now?) Fantasy Moguls predicts $23 million, which I think is dead on, perhaps a tad low. The IMDb score is projected at a mere 4.3, and I daresay Righteous Kill can manage something over 6. It won't singlehandedly give you a victory, but the boost you'll get from Righteous Kill makes it a righteous pick for your slate: It's easily the best $2 Ultimate value you can find.
BOX OFFICE BEST BARGAINS
6. The Accidental Husband (Sep. 5; $2) — Honestly, I'm really not expecting much out of this movie, but if you want to spend just $2, best to go with this, because all the other $2 Box Office choices are limited releases that probably won't ever expand wide enough (at least, not in the scope of the season) to make any sort of dent at the box office. Though it has been pushed back multiple times, at least The Accidental Husband is scheduled for a wide release. That alone gives it much more box office potential than any of the smaller films. Maybe some people really have been waiting to see another Uma Thurman movie, or maybe they'll stumble in there by, ahem, accident. In any case, you shouldn't expect much out of a $2 pick. Think DOOMSDAY, which banked $10 million total; that's right about where I expect The Accidental Husband to top out, so in that respect, it's still a decent choice. Just in case, though, if it gets yanked again, the screen count gets reduced, or it gets pushed into a direct-to-DVD release, you could take a flyer (heh) on Fly Me to the Moon 3D (maybe the 3D will help grosses), or Vicky Cristina Barcelona (since Woody Allen often has crossover appeal from the arthouse to the multiplex).
5. Igor (Sep. 19; $3) — I don't expect it to win the weekend, but animated films, even if they're as mediocre as Space Chimps will surely be, make at least a respectable amount of money. And with a price tag like that, numbers you'd normally consider respectable are all of a sudden solid contributions. Igor finds itself in a potentially profitable place, as there is nothing else for families and kids for a month before (going back to The Longshots and Fly Me to the Moon on Aug. 22) and three weeks after (Beverly Hills Chihuahua on Oct. 3). So, even if the plot (hunchbacked lab assistant tries to leapfrog his mad scientist boss and win the Evil Science Fair himself) seems to come straight out of Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, a good $20-30 million is possible ... provided, of course, that the Weinstein Company doesn't change the release date as they so often do with their projects.
4. Nights in Rodanthe (Sep. 26; $4) — Diane Lane and Richard Gere, who teamed up for some heavy drama in Unfaithful, have joined forces for this far more lighthearted adaptation of a novel from The Notebook author Nicholas Sparks. I expect that some tears might be shed, the sweeping music will play, and there will be lots of passionate kisses. Just like with The Notebook, in other words, only a little bit more grown up. James Franco (!?) plays Gere's estranged son; I wonder if his dad knows about all that weed he's gotten himself into in The Pineapple Express. And Chris Meloni, playing Lane's wayward husband who suddenly wants to rejoin the family, jumps back ahead of fellow Law and Order: SVU star Mariska Hargitay (The Love Guru) with his second appearance on the silver screen this year. Nights in Rodanthe looks to be nothing more than your standard romantic love story, but I still think it's good for a solid $15-20 million opening on its only eligible weekend in the current season.
3. Lakeview Terrace (Sep. 19; $5) — You know what sucks? Because it's PG-13, Samuel L. Jackson can only say his trademark line one time. On the flip side, however, the PG-13 will surely help this domestic thriller's prospects at the box office. Much like previous Screen Gems releases Prom Night and Untraceable, I expect Lakeview Terrace to be a mediocre movie, but still make decent money, driven by the Under 25 set. Jackson plays a cop who disapproves of his newlywed neighbors' interracial relationship — the question is, is he just prejudiced, or is there something more sinister behind his actions? And above all, he's on the police force, so that's an obstacle to shutting down his rowdy behavior. Lakeview Terrace has a shot at winning its opening weekend, although probably not with much more than $20 million. It'll fade quickly after those first two weeks, but that's really all it'll need to earn the majority of its money. (Plus, it only has two eligible weekends in the current season anyway.) A little over $30 million in two weeks seems about right.
2. My Best Friend's Girl (Sep. 19; $5). It seems like Lionsgate has figured out a formula. Take Dane Cook, put him in a romantic comedy alongside a hot actress (Jessica Simpson, Jessica Alba), release in late September or early October (Employee of the Month, Good Luck Chuck). Voila! You've got yourself an easy $25-35 million (Employee earned $28 million; Chuck lucked into $34 million). Here's a continuation of that trend, with Cook alongside rom-com veteran Kate Hudson. Expect similar stats this time around, perhaps even a bit higher. The MPAA hasn't given My Best Friend's Girl a rating yet, but I don't think its fortunes will change drastically when that happens. An R rating might lower the box office ceiling a little bit, but keep in mind that Good Luck Chuck carried an R and still managed to top $30 million. I say this will do the same. And if you're lucky, and if Dane Cook doesn't get too annoying, and if Kate Hudson can attract enough people because romantic comedies seem to be what she does best, maybe $40 million is a possibility.
1. SUPER DEAL SPOTLIGHT! Eagle Eye (Sep. 26; $3). I thought this was a sleeper pick even when it was scheduled to be released in August against The Pineapple Express. Now it's poised to make a surprising (well, to some, not to me) amount of money in an off month, just like Disturbia did last April. Eagle Eye features the same director as Disturbia, D.J. Caruso, as well as the same young star, Shia LaBeouf, a similarly pulse-pounding plot template. It should be a continuation of a great year for Paramount and DreamWorks (well, with the exception of The Love Guru), and a further boost for LaBeouf, although after appearing in $300 million blockbusters each of the past two summers, I'm not sure he needs too much more of a career boost. (He'll have another blockbuster next summer, too, with Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.) I expect an opening weekend between $20-25 million, maybe even approaching $30 million. It won't be the best September opening of all time, but it'll be among the top 10. And for $3, you can't ask for much more than that.
Keep these cheapies in mind for next week, when I'll be putting together potentially league-winning Ultimate and Box Office slates that both include The Dark Knight. This one's for all of you degree-of-difficulty types who enjoy a challenge and just can't resist tying up half your funds (three-fifths of them in Box Office) in single release. Until then, good luck!
While digging up the deets about Righteous Kill for this column, Mister Informative used his superheroic powers of cinematic investigation to finally confirm that, yes, Robert De Niro and Al Pacino were actually on the same set, at the same time, seated at the same table, for that famous scene in Heat. So there. It's been settled. Once and for all. Trust us. Let him know about any other mysteries you'd like to have cleared up at misterinformative@gmail.com.


Haha, nice title.
Posted by: Ryan | July 10, 2008 at 04:42 PM