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July 17, 2008

TIP OF THE WEEK: It Was a Dark and Stormy 'Knight' or How to Win Your July-September Leagues by Betting on the Bat

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! Welcome once again to the Tip of the Week. Many of you may be relying on The Dark Knight to anchor or even save your slate. Heck, even I am, in a few spots, and that's sort of embarrassing for a cinematic superhero to admit. It'll certainly be huge. The only question is, to what degree? Will it be worth its gigantic price tag (it's the most expensive option in either league format) in the current July-September season? I personally don't think so, but just in case you're the bettin' type, or you like to experiment with different combinations of choices, or your love for Batman knows no bounds, this week I've crafted two July-September slates (one for Ultimate Movie Moguls, one for Box Office Moguls) that are anchored by The Dark Knight, yet still might — might, I say — be competitive.

To make it possible for you to actually use these exact slates, I've limited my choices to films that haven't yet opened. (Talk about degree of difficulty!) So, The Dark Knight will bat leadoff — but heck, it'll probably bat cleanup too, if you know what I'm saying. I'm relying on a lot of cheap help with these lineups, but when one film takes up half of your funds or more, such are the risks you have to take. Devoting most of your cash to The Dark Knight probably isn't the smartest move, but if you just can't resist putting it on your slate, at least you can still be competitive. To quote Joker himself, "You'll see. I'll show ya."

In Ultimate leagues, in addition to The Dark Knight ($49):
• The X-Files: I Want to Believe (July 25; $12)
• Brideshead Revisited (July 25; $8)
• Hamlet 2 (Aug. 22; $8)
• Babylon A.D. (Aug. 29; $4)
• Righteous Kill (Sept. 12; $2)
• My Best Friend's Girl (Sept. 19; $8)
• Eagle Eye (Sept. 26; $9)
TOTAL = $100

The X-Files: I Want to Believe, as I've said before, won't pull a $70 million opening out of thin air like The Simpsons Movie did last summer. If you ask me whether I think it's still a good value pick, however, I'll quote another trailer: "Let's just say I want to believe" that it is. I know that it's been 10 years since the last film, and six since the show went off the air, but that gap may not be as much of a factor as some think it is. After all, Indiana Jones performed just fine after a 19-year layoff, and even Rocky Balboa turned some heads after 16 years in retirement.

As with any huge blockbuster, you can expect a fairly substantial second-weekend drop from The Dark Knight, and though that may not be enough for The X-Files to swoop in and take the top spot, a solid second-place finish isn't out of the question by any means. As far as cost-effectiveness goes, there's really nothing else in this range that I'd recommend. Mamma Mia! at $21 is a good choice, but that puts you with $70 spent on just two films, and that's a scenario that makes it tough to fill out the rest of your slate. I do think Swing Vote, also at $12, might surprise, but it's far less of a sure thing than Scully and Mulder. The truth might still be out there, but it's also right here: stack The X-Files together with The Dark Knight and you've got a cascade of Top 5 points right out of the gate.

Brideshead Revisited should benefit from a relatively weak PTA field toward the end of the month. Assuredly, the wide releases will find their way onto the PTA leaderboard, but limited release films with lots of PTA potential are few and far between. American Teen might make a dent on its opening weekend, along with Brideshead, but after that, I don't expect anything more. On the other hand, Brideshead Revisited is the strongest limited release of Aug. 1, as well, even with a planned expansion. Midnight Meat Train is, ahem, dead meat, and Frozen River has little-to-no buzz besides what's left over from Sundance, opening the door for a PTA repeat. Last summer Miramax handled the release of a similar period drama (from the same director, Julian Jarrold), Becoming Jane, over this same late July/early August time frame. That made $18 million and earned 4 PTA points; if Miramax starts Brideshead with a screen count under 100 and expands the film a little more slowly than they did with Jane, than I think they'll have even more success this time around.

It's a good thing Hamlet 2 is scheduled to open only "in select cities" on Aug. 22, because that way it's virtually guaranteed 5 PTA points, and I'm not sure how much crossover appeal it'd have if it opened any wider. The field of wide release films (Death Race, The Rocker, The House Bunny, The Longshots) is relatively weak, and I don't expect any of them to grab huge PTA numbers. The only thing that might challenge Hamlet 2 is, strange as it may seem, Fly Me to the Moon, driven by the fact that it's being released in 3D. Hamlet's IMDb score is currently under 6, so that's not great, but it also won't kill you — and besides, The Dark Knight will almost assuredly score over 8, possibly over 9. Because it's advertised as "from the writer of Team America: World Police," some people will go into Hamlet 2 expecting something similar ... and they'll probably come out disappointed. But that doesn't mean it won't be funny, or that it'll fail to do any significant business.

Babylon A.D. will almost certainly be a cheap source of some potentially unexpected Top 5 points. I think it can muster enough to win its opening weekend (at least, let's hope so, with its only direct competition being Disaster Movie), and should grab second place the next weekend too, assuming Bangkok Dangerous beats it out. That's a lot more time in the Top 5 than Fantasy Moguls predicts, and at just $4, that many Top 5 points is an absolute steal. Vin Diesel is returning to a more typical role for him here (instead of being a dad type in The Pacifier, or trying something more serious in Find Me Guilty), and though it might be typecasting, he's much more in his element with this one. There's some danger of this being another late summer disappointment a la Shoot 'Em Up, but Babylon A.D. has a friendlier PG-13 rating and a sturdier studio behind it, so I don't think that'll happen again. Diesel may be expensive on America's roadways, but for Fantasy Moguls, $4 buys a lot more than a gallon.

Early reviews may not have been kind to Righteous Kill, but with both Robert De Niro AND Al Pacino as stars, it's definitely worth a second look, especially for just $2. No other $2 Ultimate pick will come even remotely close to what Righteous Kill could provide for your slate. Disaster Movie might make more money, but its IMDb score will freefall into the 2s or 3s. Ditto with The House Bunny, although its IMDb score probably won't be quite as bad. If nothing else, Righteous Kill could have the widest appeal of any Sept. 12 release, because we all know that Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys Together caters more to African-American audiences, while Burn After Reading may not open much higher than 1,000 screens. Expect a three-week total of $25-30 million and potentially a few Top 5 points. Righteous Kill won't be a runaway success, but for just $2, would you really expect that?

My Best Friend's Girl should net you around 5 Top 5 points and a cool $25 million or so by the end of the season. I expect a $10-15 million opening weekend, despite how formulaic it might appear, and despite how we've seen similar films from all three stars (Kate Hudson, Dane Cook and Jason Biggs) before. It should be a close battle between this and Lakeview Terrace for the top spot on Sept. 19, especially given that nothing released in the two weeks prior will have very strong legs. Just like Vin Diesel earlier, a movie like this is right up Kate Hudson's alley (no, that's not an innuendo) — and, frankly, right up Dane Cook's as well (it's ESPECIALLY not an innuendo now), given that he's made Employee of the Month and Good Luck Chuck in the past two years. I think the trend will continue and My Best Friend's Girl's performance will be comparable to those two previous films. If you're lucky, it'll do better, and I do think it has that potential — but for a modest $8, I'd be happy with the $25 million and handful of Top 5 points; it's a good end-of-season boost.

Rarely does Steven Spielberg take part, whether producing or directing, in bad movies. Disappointing, perhaps, whether critically or commercially, but never flat out bad. That's just one of many good signs for Eagle Eye, which, even at $9 and with only one eligible weekend, is still a fantastic pick. It'll win the weekend handily, probably earning over $20 million in the process. Just like director D.J. Caruso's last film, Disturbia, which coincidentally also starred Shia LaBeouf, Eagle Eye will make a figurative killing in a typically weak month. Expect a favorable IMDb score, too, as well as a few PTA points. It probably won't make more per site than Choke, but 4 PTA points aren't out of the question. Eagle Eye was pushed back from an original date of Aug. 8, but this looks to be one of the rare instances where a changed release date doesn't necessarily mean bad things.

In Box Office leagues, in addition to The Dark Knight ($61):
• The X-Files: I Want to Believe (July 25; $12)
• Disaster Movie (Aug. 29; $6)
• Bangkok Dangerous (Sept. 5; $5)
• Igor (Sept. 19; $3)
• My Best Friend's Girl (Sept. 19; $5)
• Lakeview Terrace (Sept. 19; $5)
• Eagle Eye (Sept. 26; $3)
TOTAL = $100

The X-Files: I Want to Believe (See Ultimate analysis above).

Disaster Movie just might be the worst Friedberg/Seltzer project yet, but even with all our objections, you know it'll make a decent amount of money. After all, Meet the Spartans pulled in $18 million on opening weekend, so Disaster Movie is all but guaranteed to make at least $10-15 million. Even though the trailer isn't remotely funny (except for Sarah Jessica Parker cast as a man, ha, ha), there are still enough people who think it is, and who can't wait to see their favorite summer blockbusters (or rather, just their trailers, apparently) get skewered. The IMDb score will, at most, be at 3.0 — it'll probably be lower, and rightly so. A Box Office league is the only place I'd recommend this one, because there, the IMDb score can't hurt you. We can all hope that soon — very soon — people will stop going to these movies that simply squash together the plot of every recent movie that was even remotely successful. In the meantime, however, even if you have to hold your nose to do it, putting Disaster Movie on your slate could end up paying off.

Unlike with Eagle Eye, you should be a little worried about Bangkok Dangerous having its release date pushed back. The delay was only two weeks, however, certainly not as worrisome as the delay of The Accidental Husband, which has gone from March to April to August to September to an indeterminate "first quarter 2009." (Next stop: DVD.) And pushing Bangkok back was more than likely an attempt to avoid competing directly against Jason Statham's Death Race; that was, in my opinion, probably a good move. Bangkok Dangerous is the weaker of the two films, and look how opening The Love Guru head-to-head against a similar movie like Get Smart only helped doom it to poor performance. (That's not the only reason; the movie was definitely pretty bad, but direct competition is still a factor.)

Just like with last summer's WAR, I expect that Bangkok Dangerous will pull in around $20-30 million, nothing spectacular but certainly still a helpful total. Alas, it won't open in time to benefit from the Labor Day weekend, which, over the past few years, has boosted the totals of action movies like Crank and Transporter 2. Still, for a mere $5, it might be Dangerous NOT to put this on your slate.

Igor is kind of the third wheel on the weekend of Sept. 19; it's a definite underdog behind both Lakeview Terrace and My Best Friend's Girl. I'm also still wary of it being moved off the date; so far, that doesn't look like it will be the case, but The Weinstein Company has done it before. Assuming it stays put, Igor may fly under the radar, but I think it can still pick up some valuable moola for your slate. It won't grab a ton of Top 5 points, but that doesn't matter for Box Office players — even if it comes in third or fourth, a Hoodwinked-esque $10-15 million opening weekend and total take over $20 million is possible. Most animated films, even the ones of decidedly lesser caliber, at least make some ripples at the box office. Heck, even Space Chumps (er, Chimps) is projected to open with $7 million this weekend. So, given the lack of anything else for family audiences opening close to Igor, this little $3 nugget is a good cheap option — and you need it to be, what with The Dark Knight chomping up nearly two-thirds of your funds.

My Best Friend's Girl (See Ultimate analysis above).

Lakeview Terrace continues the trend here of loading up on virtually every wide release toward the end of the season. Individually, they might not comprise much, but as a group, all these mid-to-late September releases could propel you right up the leaderboard, or even fend off a late charge from those beneath you. The group strategy is best; you'll essentially get the gross of the top few movies every weekend for the last few weeks of the season. Everything's cheap because it's a cutoff bargain — which is good because, due to The Dark Knight's enormous price tag, you need to conserve funds wherever possible, and so loading up on cutoff bargains is a potentially fruitful strategy. As for Lakeview Terrace itself, I think it could win its opening weekend (it'll be a close race with My Best Friend's Girl), and grab a nice $30-35 million by the end of the season. (There's more analysis in last week's Bargain Basement Spectacular as well.) For $5, that's not bad at all.

Eagle Eye (See Ultimate analysis above). At $3, this is the best value pick in Box Office, so you should have it on your slate regardless of whether or not you pick The Dark Knight.

That's all for this week! Our next installment will be a Classic Tip of the Week — an updated version of my 10 Rules for Winning Fantasy Moguls. It's the new 2008 edition, with all-new examples and, who knows, maybe even some embellishments! Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative believes that the most Righteous Kill would be for Big Al and Bobby D to put a slug in the Friedberg-Seltzer moviemaking machinery. Can we hire them out? Sort of like they were high-priced hit men, instead of cops? Send your own suggestions to misterinformative@gmail.com.

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Posted at 09:26 AM in Advice and Analysis, Mister Informative, Tip of the Week | Permalink

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