WEEKEND OF JULY 2-7
Stud: The Wackness — It's the only limited release film being released this week, or at least the only one available in Fantasy Moguls. (Interestingly enough, a film I mentioned in my January column about the Sundance Film Festival, Diminished Capacity, is seeing a release this week as well.) The Wackness may be hard pressed to top Hancock in the PTA category, but four PTA points this weekend would still be pretty good for a film that only costs $7. Its IMDb score sits at a stellar 6.6, and though it is only writer/director Jonathan Levine's second film, the buzz is already high — The Wackness won the Audience Award at Sundance and recently claimed the same honor at the Los Angeles Film Festival. If that weren't enough, consider this amusing tidbit: Sir Ben Kingsley plays a marijuana-addicted therapist, and had to be shown how to properly hit a bong so that his smoking looked realistic. If you've got The Wackness on your slate, good choice; it will pay off.
Dud: There are only two new releases this week, so I'll go with The Love Guru, because it's really just, in the words of one of my coworkers, a few dozen penis jokes held together by something that remotely resembles a plot.
Wild Card: Hancock — Word of mouth isn't that great, and neither are the reviews. It'll make over $100 million in its first week, but might drop off quickly after that. Still, none of that matters a whole lot, because Will Smith in a PG-13 action flick opening on a holiday weekend automatically means the cash will roll in. Only in a summer with Iron Man, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and The Dark Knight could Will Smith be relegated to second-tier blockbuster status, but it looks like that's exactly what will happen here. Still, a solid $200 million isn't necessarily out of the question, the IMDb score is currently at a solid 6.4, and you'll surely get a handful of Top 5 points (and maybe a few PTA points as well). At $38 in July-September Ultimate leagues, it's a pretty good pick, but $47 in Box Office leagues is perhaps a bit steep.

WEEKEND OF JULY 11-13
Stud: Journey to the Center of the Earth — It isn't available in all leagues, but in those where it is, it only costs $2, and it's the best pick out there for that price. New Line Cinema had planned to only release the film to 3D-equipped locations, but when Warner Bros. took charge of all New Line films they decided to release it in 2D as well in order to increase earnings potential. Still, with higher ticket prices for 3D features and the intrigue of 3D in and of itself, a good $20 million and a few PTA points (driven by the 3D locations) seem probable. This will be the first wide scale 3D feature since Hannah Montana's concert tour in February, and begins an increasing trend of 3D releases, almost one per month: Fly Me to the Moon, The Nightmare Before Christmas, Bolt, and in 2009, a host more, including My Bloody Valentine, Monsters vs. Aliens, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and, of course, Avatar and the rerelease of Toy Story. Journey to the Center of the Earth may not be a huge 3D hit, but it's an excellent value for its price.
Dud: Meet Dave — I think most people have been too quick to write this film off and that it'll exceed the low expectations set out for it. If anything from this weekend does tank badly, however, Meet Dave will be it. A poor IMDb score is virtually a cinch, but the PG rating assigned by the MPAA helps matters a little bit. It'll be family friendly, but will have to compete almost directly with Journey to the Center of the Earth and the sure-to-be-strong (of course they are, because they're metal!) legs of WALL-E. Some red flags are raised, too, by the fact that the film was moved from a May 30 opening to its current slot, and that the last time Eddie Murphy took a crack at family friendly sci-fi, with The Adventures of Pluto Nash ... well, let's just say it turned out badly. Though it may exceed expectations, I still say $16 is too much for it in Box Office leagues. Go with The X-Files: I Want to Believe (at $12) instead.
Wild Card: Hellboy II: The Golden Army — Universal snapped up the rights to this sequel after Sony decided Hellboy wasn't a profitable enough franchisee for them; with a more prestigious summer release than the first film, a nice $80 million total take isn't out of the question (the first one made $59 million). Hellboy isn't a bigger comic book character than Iron Man or Batman, certainly, and the film may not even outearn Wanted (which is based on a graphic novel), but it fits nicely into the niche at the box office between Hancock and The Dark Knight. You shouldn't expect The Golden Army to singlehandedly carry your slate to victory, but it costs a modest $17 in Box Office and $15 in Ultimate leagues and is a great mid-range value. One thing to be wary of, though, is the looming specter of The Dark Knight just a week later. I have always thought the effect of huge blockbusters "stealing audiences" is overemphasized and overestimated, but with somewhat similar movies like this, it might be something to watch out for.

WEEKEND OF JULY 18-20
Stud: Surprise! I'm not going with The Dark Knight. Instead, it's Mamma Mia! For precedent of a musical as counterprogramming, merely look back a year to Hairspray. Mamma Mia! will fit into a similar mold. (Musicals are often underestimated, but if you think the success of Hairspray was immensely surprising, just imagine the almost inevitable movie adaptation of Wicked. I can see it positioned as a tentpole blockbuster years down the road, and with the amount of sharing between Hollywood and Broadway these days — even Legally Blonde! — you know it's bound to happen sooner or later.) We have seen more than once over the past few years that a movie appealing chiefly to women can easily coexist with something as testosterone-driven as The Dark Knight. Mamma Mia! will add to that list. It's a good pickup at $21 in Ultimate leagues, and not bad at $24 in Box Office either. It won't win the weekend, but it could debut at No. 2, and should have good legs. Fantasy Moguls projects $90 million, and that seems about right, but it might be able to squeak over the $100 million mark. Just don't mistakenly call it — and I've honestly heard people do this — Mamma Missing in Action, or Mamma MIA. (Although that might be an interesting script — Meryl Streep in a Chuck Norris war movie set to ABBA songs? I smell Oscar ...)
Dud: Space Chimps — As an attempt at getting more people to see this, 20th Century Fox advertises it as "from one of the primates who brought you Shrek." Really, now? We're honestly going to go because of one producer? That tactic didn't really help Fox when Date Movie was "from two of the six writers of Scary Movie" (although they were probably mostly kidding), or The Comebacks was "from the producers of Wedding Crashers." I don't expect it to work this time either. Vanguard Animation's previous two films were Valiant and Happily N'Ever After, neither of which was an overwhelming success. Space Chimps will probably perform better than those, but coming out a week after three other wide releases and competing directly against The Dark Knight and Mamma Mia! means these Chimps are chumps. It's cheap to put on your slate, but I wouldn't unless you're stuck with it as virtually your only option.
Wild Card: The Dark Knight — I have no doubt that it will be huge. An opening weekend over $100 million is all but guaranteed, and numbers in the other three Ultimate categories will be nothing short of great either. BUT, I don't think having that certainty is worth blowing half or more of your funds (it's $49 in Ultimate, $61 in Box Office). The Dark Knight will out-earn Hancock, sure, but it's more cost-efficient to go with Big Willie and, say, The Pineapple Express than to put all your eggs in Batman's basket. Tying up that much of your cash in one film only limits your ability to adequately fill out the rest of your slate. From a simple moviegoer standpoint, The Dark Knight is a must-see, but from a Fantasy Moguls perspective, it certainly isn't a must-have. Its sheer numbers will be studly, but as far as bang for your buck goes ... not so much. And with regards to the hype (let me put on my protective superhero suit before saying this): I think some people will be disappointed because they'll go in expecting too much.

WEEKEND OF JULY 25-27
Stud: The X-Files: I Want to Believe — After Sex and the City and Get Smart, another TV show will hit the big screen (again) in a big way. The 1998 film made $83 million, and while this one may not equal that, a good $20 million opening and $60 million total doesn't seem too far off. If nothing else, the PG-13 rating gives it much steadier footing and a much higher earnings ceiling than the R-rated Step Brothers. It's been 10 years since the first movie and six since the show went off the air, but the fans haven't gone anywhere and I don't think the hiatus will affect the movie's performance too heavily. At $12 in both league types, this definitely falls into the mid-range value category; it won't reach the heights of last summer's Fox-TV-show-adaptation-released-at-the-end-of-July, The Simpsons Movie, but I do think that, like with Homer and company, expectations for Scully and Mulder are lower than they should be.
Dud: Boy A — With two wide releases, a high-profile documentary in American Teen, and the second weekend of The Dark Knight all looming, there isn't much room for Boy A to squeeze out any PTA. It debuted in the United States this April at the Tribeca Film Festival, but has already seen an international release (and even a TV premiere in the UK). While you'd get a great IMDb score if you put this on your slate (it's at 8.6 currently), that's just about the only benefit you'd get. The Weinstein Company is handling U.S. distribution, and lately it seems that almost everything they touch curdles and turns sour, or at least doesn't perform very well in theaters. The Promotion and Where in the World is Osama bin Laden? are two recent examples. If you're going to spend $11 for a primarily-PTA movie, better to go with Towelhead despite its placement at the very end of the season.
Wild Card: Step Brothers — The trailer usually gets a positive reaction from audiences (although I personally prefer the red band trailer), and the reteaming of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly after Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby is another good sign. But I think many Moguls are reluctant to trust Ferrell after Semi-Pro, and for good reason; R-rated comedies certainly aren't a guaranteed hit, even with a seemingly sure thing like Ferrell or Ben Stiller as your star. (Does The Heartbreak Kid ring any bells?) With two more R-rated comedies on the schedule for August (The Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder), Step Brothers might be the odd one out. But, on the other hand, it could capitalize on being released first and make a pile of money before Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr. arrive to steal the Brothers's, ahem, Thunder. If Step Brothers scores, it'll score big, but if it flops, the failure will be massive. Watch this one closely.

That's all for this week; next time I'll take a look at the best Bargain Basement picks for the current season — the top 6 movies in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues priced at $8 or less. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative just dissed Eddie Murphy, Hellboy, Batman, Will Ferrell and some space monkeys — but were they part of the Space Monkey Mafia?  — in the same column, which must be some kind of record. Let him know whether he left anyone out at misterinformative@gmail.com.