MIDWEEK ESTIMATES: 'Pineapple Express' Slow After Fast Start but May Still Hit $45M for 5-Day and Could Top 'Dark Knight' for 3-Day Crown; 'Pants 2' Headed for $25M 5-Day Take!
by Steve Mason
THURSDAY 10:00 p.m. (Pacific): Pineapple Express (Sony), which opened to a spectacular $12.15 million on Wednesday, suffered its expected Thursday buzz-kill, falling about 50 percent according to preliminary numbers. I am projecting an estimated $6.25 million for day two of the Seth Rogen/James Franco marijuana-fueled comedy, for a pre-weekend tally of $18.4 million.
The megahit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) appears to have received a slight uptick from Wednesday, when Males Under 25 rushed out to see the Judd Apatow-produced Sony comedy. The Christopher Nolan-directed Batman Begins sequel scored an estimated $5.35 million on Thursday, up about 5 percent from Wednesday. This sets up a heated battle for the traditional three-day weekend box office crown.
My usual sources and I have arrived at the conclusion that Pineapple Express could top $11 million on Friday, leading to a five-day of $47 million and a three-day of $28.7 million or so, compared to about $8.1 million for the Caped Crusader's fourth Friday, which would likely translate to a three-day of just over $27 million. If Express gets that high, it would mean a three-day weekend upset of TDK.
Meanwhile, The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.) appears to have followed up its $5.7 million opening day with a Thursday take of $2.9 million or so. That puts the female-skewing sequel on track for a $17.1 million three-day and a very healthy five-day of $25 million, ahead of The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal), which is fading fast after a $40 million opening weekend.
THURSDAY 8:00 a.m. (Pacific): The much buzzed-about Judd Apatow-produced comedy Pineapple Express (Sony) got high on Wednesday. Very high. With a breakout comic performance from James Franco and the increasingly bankable presence of co-writer and star Seth Rogen, Express rode to a stunning $12.15 million on opening day. That will likely translate to a five-day figure of $42 million-$45 million, well above industry expectations. Amazingly, the movie was budgeted at only $27 million, so this will be a wildly profitable film for Sony.
The battle for No. 1 over the traditional three-day weekend now becomes very interesting. Pineapple Express is rated R and is aimed at Males Under 25. Tomorrow night's Beijing Olympics opening ceremony is unlikely to put a dent in the weed-filled fun, and it appears that the new Sony release can reach $27 million-$30 million for the Friday-through-Sunday period. Meanwhile, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) softened a bit Wednesday, finishing with an estimated $5.1 million. I am now pegging the $400 million blockbuster for a $24 million-$27 million weekend and a No. 2 finish.
The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.) was No. 2 on Wednesday, with an estimated $5.7M. That is also better that most studio execs were expecting. Again, with the Olympics providing no real competition for this "girl power" picture skewing to Females Under 25, the weekend should be very healthy. I am projecting a five-day of $22 million-$25 million and a three-day of $17 million-$20 million, meaning that the Sisterhood would almost certainly finish No. 3, ahead of Universal's fast-fading The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.
Noooo!!!!!! I wanted for the dark knight to rules for a fourth week. Long live the dark knight
Posted by: salva | August 07, 2008 at 01:19 PM
Dont worry Salva, TDK will rule the weekend!
I mean, it has to! i love TDK and Bale is so yummy!
Posted by: BJ | August 07, 2008 at 07:35 PM
TDK will win this one going away. Pineapple will be heavily frontloaded. Mason your Friday Pineapple projection is high - maybe even 10-15% high.
Posted by: Lester Hayes | August 07, 2008 at 10:32 PM
If Tropic Thunder bombs, then TDK will probably win next weekend by default when PE falls over 50%.
Does anyone know which film is next to be released in IMAX? The further away the release, the longer TDK will stay in the market.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 08, 2008 at 07:17 AM
lester, for your information the dark knight was also heavily frontloaded on its first day of release also. most films are always heavily frontloaded in the summer.
as for me, i think pineapple express does have a shot, but the dark knight will have its last weekend at number 1 because unless tropic thunder gets mummy 3 reviews, then i don't see the dark knight winning next weekend
Posted by: Bob | August 08, 2008 at 08:59 AM
Squirrel, the next IMAX movie is Eagle Eye, so TDK has got awhile.
Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | August 08, 2008 at 10:41 AM
i don't know if this surprises anyone, but shows of TDK at my theater in downtown montreal are still sold out from like half an hour before!! as for the IMAX shows, don't even think about getting tickets the same day.
Posted by: ashkul88 | August 08, 2008 at 04:36 PM
TDK will win this one going away. Pineapple will be heavily frontloaded. Mason your Friday Pineapple projection is high - maybe even 10-15% high.
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