BARD'S EYE VIEW: Two for the Show and a Plea to the Man Behind the Curtain for Some Coen Correlation
by Shrykespeare
Greetings to all citizens, denizens and tourists of the Fantaverse, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View, your virtual laboratory where we dissect, vivisect and analyze down to the molecular level, the latest wide-release films that germinate their way into theaters. Much like some microscopic organisms, some films are lethargic specimens with absolutely no signs of intelligence or cellular activity. Others show great powers of adaptation, insinuating their way into our lives and making us talk about them without really realizing why. Just don't get too close to the latest Friedberg/Seltzer film, that stuff is lethally radioactive and has a half-life of at least two months. (Wink.)
September is what it is: a way-station between summer and winter, a convenience store out in the middle of the desert. Maybe you've got a hankering for a hot dog that's been rotating for three hours now, or perhaps a Klondike bar to hold you over until the completion of your journey. My point is, there's not much there to truly sate one's appetite, which is probably the reason that nothing in the entire span of September will run you more than $17 in the August Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues (or more than $20 in Box Office Moguls). There just isn't anything of tremendous quality to be had. (Or is there ... ?)
That doesn't mean, however, that there are no good bargains. I just about did a double-take when I saw that Fantasy Moguls had given Righteous Kill (Sept. 12) a price tag of only $2 in the August-October leagues. They think that it will bring in only two Top 5 points, no PTA, a miserable User Rating of 4.3 and a mere $23 million. Okay, I know it's September, but does anyone realize who's in this thing?
It's true that Robert De Niro has made some questionable choices in the last decade (The Adventures of Rocky & Bullwinkle, Showtime, Godsend, Hide and Seek), and so has Al Pacino (Two for the Money, 88 Minutes, for God's sake, Gigli?!?). On the other hand, it is still Pacino and De Niro, for Francis Ford Coppola's sake! Both are recipients of the AFI Lifetime Achievement Award, not to mention that they've got three Academy awards and four Golden Globes between them. Trust me, these two Hollywood icons, now both in their 60s, still have a considerable fanbase. I am sure that many of those fans watched them together in Michael Mann's classic 1995 crime drama Heat, where De Niro was the bad guy and Pacino was the cop trying to catch him. Their one major scene together in that film has been widely revered as one of the single best scenes of all time.
In Kill, however, the boys are both cops, working together, and in pretty much the entire film side-by-side. They play New York City detectives "Turk" (De Niro) and "Rooster" (Pacino), who must try to track down a serial killer who seems to be targeting criminals, including one who just recently escaped justice for killing a girl. They discover a connection between this killer and a case that they believed to have been closed many years before, and surmise that it is perhaps a cop that is behind it all.
At least, that's what I've gathered from the one-sheet and the trailers. Sounds like a pretty good street cop/serial killer story, which is always good for dramatic entertainment. The fact that arguably two of the biggest names of the last three decades are headlining can only help matters. However, before we get stars in our eyes (literally), let's also keep a few other things in mind: First, the film's directed by Jon Avnet, who bombed earlier this year teaming up with Pacino for 88 Minutes. Prior to that, you'd have to go back more than 10 years for his last decent film (Red Corner), and all the way back to 1991 to find his last stamp of approval from critics (Fried Green Tomatoes). Secondly, the mere presence of rapper/actor 50 Cent probably has a lot of people wondering about the quality of this film. And finally, and I know you're all thinking it ... why September? On the bright side, the script was written by Russell Gewirtz, who also penned the screenplay for Spike Lee's terrific Inside Man in 2006 (and is currently working on the sequel), so there's hope.
Put it all together, and what does it mean? Well, I'm not going to forecast that it'll be setting any kind of September box office records, but it should definitely exceed the doom-and-gloom predictions that Fantasy Moguls has laid out for it. I predict that Righteous Kill will come in at No. 2 on its opening weekend, pulling in around $15-$17 million. Given that there are quite a few films scheduled for release on Sept. 19, it will probably spend no more than two weeks in the Top 5, but that's still good enough for five Top 5 points, perhaps a single PTA point (or two), around $35-$40 million in total take and a User Rating around 6.0. There is no way in Hades that you will find a better stat producer for $2 this season than this. A full $8 in Box Office is more problematic, but I have to believe that Kill has just as much chance to score big as any other similarly-priced September release. Here's hoping that there's an actual story here, and not just Bob and Al monologuing to the camera and chewing the scenery for 90-plus minutes.
If it's spring or fall, then that means that you can expect another drama from director/actor Tyler Perry. He has consistently churned out well-acted, well-written dramas every six months for the last three years, and this fall is no exception. From the looks of things, The Family That Preys (Sept. 12) will be no different. Don't let Perry's IMDb User Rating history fool you. Despite their consistently low scores (which are typical for most African-American-centered films), these film remain quite popular, and all of them tend to do fairly well at the box office.
Unlike some of his past efforts, however, which seemed to blend comedy and drama seamlessly, such as Madea's Family Reunion or Why Did I Get Married?, this time he seems to be going to full-on drama, and he has gotten two Academy Award-caliber actresses to fill the lead roles. Kathy Bates and Alfre Woodard play lifelong friends Charlotte and Alice, who definitely come from different walks of life. When Charlotte and her millionaire son, William (Cole Hauser), attend the wedding of Alice's daughter, Andrea (Sanaa Lathan), William graciously offers Andrea a job because he's had "designs" on her for some time. They subsequently enter into an affair that threatens to tear both families apart. In an effort to rebuilt their familial ties, Charlotte and Alice embark on a cross-country road trip to try to figure out a way to end the drama. Rockmond Dunbar, Taraji P. Henson, Kadee Strickland and Robin Givens co-star (along with Perry, of course).
This film is only $11 in the August Ultimate leagues, and if history teaches us anything, it's that Perry's films have very good opening weekends. $20 million or more is not out of the realm of possibility, which means perhaps as many as seven or eight To 5 points before all is said and done. It may even snag a few PTA points as well, and I daresay that $50 million would be a decent total take for The Family That Preys, if Lionsgate (which has a whole host of films opening in the next few months, including Saw V, Transporter 3 and W) pulls together any sort of decent marketing effort. I will remind you yet again that the User Rating will probably do you no favors, ending somewhere just south of the 5.0 mark. And as for the $20 price tag this film has been saddled with in August-October Box Office, I think that's a little too steep. You're better off spending the extra $2 on Body of Lies; Ridley Scott's record for money makers is a little stronger than Perry's, I think you'll agree.
Before I go any further, let me apologize to anyone who was looking forward to my critique of John Cusack's new animated feature Igor (Sept. 19), which I promised in my closing paragraph last week. I can assure you, I WILL be covering it next week. It occurred to me, however, that there was another film that I should be talking about instead. It, too, is being released on Sept. 12, but for whatever reason, it has failed to appear on Fantasy Moguls's radar in either the July or August leagues.
I honestly have no idea how Fantasy Moguls decides which movies to put on its lists and which ones to omit; I suppose if a film is simply TOO small, TOO little-known, it might make sense to leave it off. After all, you can't have EVERY film in there. But I can't for the life of me figure out why they would leave off a film that features no fewer than five A-list actors and is directed by none other than the Coen Brothers, Joel and Ethan, whose last feature, No Country For Old Men, was only nominated for eight Oscars, winning four (including Best Director and Best Picture). So why would their next film, the espionage comedy Burn After Reading, go unnoticed? (Note to Fantasy Moguls: I am most emphatically not trying to bite the hand that feeds me. I am simply saying what I know many are thinking. Please include it in the soon-to-be-formed September leagues, if you can.)
Given the enormous amount of talent involved with this film, I simply could not write a column that didn't at least recognize it. And it looks like the Coens have brought back a couple of their old cohorts, including George Clooney (O Brother Where Art Thou?, Intolerable Cruelty) and Frances McDormand (Fargo), as well as a bevy of other household names: Brad Pitt, John Malkovich, Tilda Swinton, Richard Jenkins and J.K. Simmons. However, unlike the stark No Country, Burn After Reading is the Coens's latest attempt to return to a genre they know very well: the dark comedy.
Pitt and McDormand play Chad and Linda, a couple of gym employees who find a discarded CD in their locker room. When they discover the memoirs of a CIA agent named Osbourne Cox (Malkovich) on it, they decide to blackmail him. From there, things escalate out of control in fairly short order as numerous governmental and local law enforcement agencies become involved, and, of course, bodies start appearing left and right. I honestly don't think I've seen a comedy this wacky from the Coens since The Big Lebowski.
I was unable to find any professional reviews of this film as of yet, but that will most likely change after Burn makes its debut at the Venice Film Festival next week. Given the fact that the Coens are known for doing quality work, given the star-studded cast, and given the fact that they ARE the defending Best Director champs, I would be surprised if this film came away with less than very good reviews. I would also venture to guess that once the ad campaign for this movie starts, the sizable following that the Coens have built over the last decade will be flocking to see this film en masse.
I have no idea how wide a release platform Focus Features is looking for. I think it's safe to say that they are not campaigning for Oscars this time around, given the premise (comedy), the release date (September), and the fact that the film is being listed as a "wide" release on Box Office Mojo. I think it will bow in at least 1,500 theaters, with possible expansion to around 2,000 if the buzz is good, but I don't think it will be much more than that. I'm not sure, given the circumstances, that it will have enough screens to crack the Top 5 much higher than No. 3. On the other hand, if something changes in the next few weeks and they decide to premiere it early in a few select locations, it could be a good choice for PTA points. That is, assuming that Fantasy Moguls doesn't attach a ridiculously high price tag to it ... and, of course, assuming that Fantasy Moguls even puts it on their September-November roster at all. I, for one, am hoping that they will. The fall season would seem a lot emptier without it.
Well, that will do it for me for yet another week. Please return next week, when I will be critiquing four more films, slated for release on Friday, Sept. 19. John Cusack leads an all-star cast of voice talents as the hunchbacked lab assistant with ambitions to rise above his station in the animated feature Igor; Samuel L. Jackson plays an LAPD officer who goes on the warpath against the young interracial couple who moves in next door in Lakeview Terrace; Jason Biggs hires professional "bad date" Dane Cook to go out with his ex-girlfriend (Kate Hudson) in order to make him look better by comparison, with disastrous consequences, in My Best Friend's Girl; and Ricky Gervais takes a page from Whoopi Goldberg's book when he discovers, after a near-death situation, that he can talk to the undead in Ghost Town.
TTFN!
Shrykespeare apologizes to Bobby D for bringing up Showtime and The Adventures of Rocky & Bullwinkle. Maybe Bobby D will someday apologize to all of his fans for, you know, taking certain acting jobs. As for Big Al, he should consider himself lucky that nobody's sayin' nothing about The Recruit or The Devil's Advocate. Send your own least cherished memories of Righteous Kill's dynamic duo to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.


If Burn after Reading is released in 2000 theatres or more, which is a possibility, I could see it beating Righteous Kill. It's the Coens, after their Oscar, and starring Pitt and Clooney.
Plus, I guarantee you that the bad reviews RK has coming for it will knock a chunk out of its box office potential. I see 4 Top 5, 2 PTA, an IMDB score of no more than 6.0, and a BO cume of about 40 mil. Still isn't bad for $2, though.
Posted by: numbersix_99 | August 26, 2008 at 09:41 AM
Thanks for mentioning Burn After Reading, I was wondering why it wasn't available as a pick; here's hoping they do add it to the new season. I'm already seeing ads for it up here in Vancouver and all my friends want to go see it so...
Posted by: Serra242 | August 26, 2008 at 10:12 AM
Burn After Reading will do nothing at the box office. The Coen Brothers are hit-and-miss with comedy at the box office and the advertising has been surprisingly limited. Also, notice that lately that a few directors whose films win Best Picture have had their next film flop (Martin Scorsese following The Departed with Shine A Light, Paul Haggis following Crash with In The Valley Of Elah, Clint Eastwood following Million Dollar Baby with Flags Of Our Fathers, Ron Howard following A Beautiful Mind with The Missing). The last time that that the director of a Best Picture-winning film followed that up with a hit with Peter Jackson and King Kong. This isn't King Kong. I imagine a $6-7 million opening and a $19-20 million finish.
Meanwhile, I think that Righteous Kill is review-proof. I believe that the names and the marketing alone can sell that one. Hey, it worked for Hancock.
Posted by: Buscemi | August 26, 2008 at 09:23 PM