• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

August 22, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Tropic Thunder' Drowns Out 'House Bunny' for Weekend Win; Statham's 'Death Race' No. 3 with $12.2M; 'Dark Knight' at No. 4 and Should Reach $500M by Labor Day!

by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is now on Facebook.

SUNDAY 8:30 a.m. (Pacific): On Friday night I reported that The House Bunny (Sony) had won the Friday box-office race, but that Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) would win the weekend, and that is exactly the way it played out. The Anna Faris PG-13-rated comedy was down almost 12 percent from its $5.92 million Friday for $5.25 million on its second day of release, and it will likely hit $15.1 million for the 3-day. That is well above industry expectations for the modestly budgeted, Under 25 Females-geared movie.

Meanwhile, the Ben Stiller-directed Tropic Thunder, which struggled to a less-than-expected $36.8 million in its first five days while competing with Michael Phelps and his historic chase for eight gold medals in Beijing, held up very strongly with a second-Saturday haul of just under $6.5 million. The R-rated movie-within-a-movie comedy will finish the frame with an estimated $16.1 million, down just 37 percent from last weekend, pushing it to a new cume of just over $65 million. With very light competition over the next month, Thunder still has a real shot at reaching $100 million domestic.

At No. 3 for the weekend is Universal's Death Race, a loose remake of the 1975 film Death Race 2000, produced by the prolific Roger Corman and directed by Paul Bartel (Eating Raoul). The R-rated action pic was, as expected, front-loaded, so it followed its $4.6 million Friday with a Saturday of $4.4 million or so, 5 percent lower than opening day. That translates to a $12.29 million opening weekend. That makes for the all-time fourth-best opening for Statham, behind The Italian Job ($19.4 million), The One ($19.1 million) and Transporter 2 ($16.5 million).

Still, Death Race opened stronger than recent Statham offerings The Bank Job ($5.93 million), Crank ($10.4 million), WAR ($9.8 million) and In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale ($3 million). The Universal action pic should finish its domestic run with a cume of $30 million-$33 million.

The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) continues to hold strong with an estimated $10.3 million and a new cume of $489.17 million. The Christopher Nolan-directed action picture will pass $500 million domestic by Labor Day. Meanwhile, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, another Warner Bros property, held on to No. 5, but it stalled dramatically in its second weekend. The LucasFilm animated film is expected to wrap the frame with just $5.66 million, down 61 percent from its opening three-day haul, for a 10-day cume of $25 million.

The other two wide new wide releases are both disappointments. The Longshots (MGM), starring Ice Cube, appears to have finished eighth overall with just $4.3 million. The Rocker (20th Century Fox) performed even worse than its already dismally low expectations, with a mere $2.75 million for three days and an embarrassing $3.8 million for five days. Don't expect to see Rainn Wilson from The Office above-the-title again anytime soon.

Among limited releases, the immaculately-reviewed Elegy (Samuel Goldwyn), starring Oscar winner Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz, scored an excellent $5,400-plus Per Theater Average at 92 locations, and Hamlet 2 (Focus), a hit at Sundance, grabbed over $4,200-plus per theater at 102 locations.

FINAL 3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $16.1 million, $4,803 PTA, $65.66 million cume
2. The House Bunny (Sony)
— $15.1 million, $5,563 PTA, $15.1 million cume
3. Death Race (Universal)
— $12.29 million, $4,855 PTA, $12.29 million cume
4. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.)
— $10.3 million, $3,527 PTA, $489.17 million cume
5. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.)
— $5.66 million, $1,639 PTA, $25 million cume
6. Pineapple Express (Sony)
— $5.6 million, $2,137 PTA, $73.92 million cume
7. Mirrors (20th Century Fox)
— $4.87 million, $1,829 PTA, $20 million cume
8. The Longshots (MGM) — $4.3 million, $2,060 PTA, $4.3 million cume
9. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $4.3 million, $1,849 PTA, $124.44 million cume
10.  The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal)
— $4.06 million, $1,680 PTA, $93.81 million cume
* NEW The Rocker (20th Century Fox)
— $2.75 million, $987 PTA, $3.8 million cume

FRIDAY 8:30 p.m. (Pacific): The Death Race (Universal) vs. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) weekend battle I was expecting has not materialized. Instead, Anna Faris as The House Bunny (Sony) has managed an upside surprise, with a well-above-expectations $5.9 million on Friday. Industry tracking pointed toward a strong opening for the Jason Statham action picture, and something softer for the PG-13 comedy Bunny, but that audience research does not always pan out.

For Faris, the always-funny star of the Scary Movie franchise , this represents a box office breakout. In fact, it is her all-time best non-Scary Movie opening, topping Just Friends ($9.2 million). Still, The House Bunny will almost certainly be front-loaded with Females Under 25 showing up on opening day, and it is likely to sink to No. 2 for the weekend with an estimated $14.4 million.

That opens the door for a repeat win for Tropic Thunder, which grabbed an estimated $4.9 million on its second Friday. Michael Phelps and NBC's Olympics coverage has clearly been a drag on the performance of this very funny, critically well-received movie-industry satire, but it will finish with about $15.8 million for the three-day as the Summer Games wind down, representing just a 39 percent drop from last weekend. That will push the Ben Stiller-directed film to over $65 million domestic by Monday morning.

Jason Statham is proving to be a decent, but not surefire Hollywood action star, as Death Race managed a somewhat disappointing $4.3 million on its opening day. With a cast that also includes Oscar nominee Joan Allen (The Contender) and Golden Globe winner Ian McShane (Deadwood), Death Race will likely roll to just $11.9 million for the weekend and a third-place finish.

Death Race 2000, produced by the prolific Roger Corman and directed by Paul Bartel (Eating Raoul), was released in 1975 with David Carradine starring and Sylvester Stallone in the role of Machine Gun Joe. This slick update seemed to provide an excellent vehicle for Statham, with Tyrese Gibson (Four Brothers, Transformers) in the Stallone role, but the results are a bit lackluster.

If the $11.9 million number holds, Death Race will be stronger than recent Statham openings The Bank Job ($5.93 million), Crank ($10.4 million), WAR ($9.8 million) and In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale ($3 million), but it will be well off the top three openings for the action star, behind The Italian Job ($19.4 million), The One ($19.1 million) and Transporter 2 ($16.5 million).

Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) continues to battle the forces of evil (as well as diminishing returns), adding $3.02 million to start the weekend. With its usual strong Saturday matinee bounce, the Batman Begins sequel will likely hit an estimated $10.12 million for the frame, lifting TDK to about $489 million. That will be more than enough to forge past the disappointing Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.), which fell to $1.75 million on its second Friday and will stagger to just $5 million for the weekend. The LucasFilm animated pic will probably drop about 66 percent, and its cume by Monday will likely be shy of $25 million.

MGM's The Longshots, starring Ice Cube, picked up just $1.4 million on Friday, and this family-friendly movie will finish in the $4.25 million range, No. 10 for the weekend. The results are disastrous for the Rainn Wilson comedy The Rocker (20th Century Fox). After a dismal take of $2 million on Wednesday-Thursday, the picture could only muster $1 million on Friday, and it seems headed for just $2.9 million. For 20th Century Fox, it is another disappointment in a tough summer that has included The Happening, Space Chimps, Meet Dave and The X-Files, although the studio did score a modest hit with last week's genre pic Mirrors.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The House Bunny (Sony) — $5.6 million, $1,462 PTA, $5.6 million cume
2. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $4.9 million, $1,462 PTA, $54.46 million cume
3. Death Race (Universal) — $4.3 million, $1,699 PTA, $4.3 million cume
4. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $3.02 million, $955 PTA, $481.89 million cume
5. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — $1.75 million, $507 PTA, $21.08 million cume
6. Mirrors (20th Century Fox) — $1.62 million, $609 PTA, $16.82 million cume
7. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $1.46 million, $558 PTA, $69.78 million cume
8. The Longshots (MGM) — $1.4 million, $670 PTA, $1.4 million cume
9. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $1.35 million, $581 PTA, $121.5 million cume
10. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $1.29 million, $536 PTA, $91.03 million cume
* NEW The Rocker (20th Century Fox) — $1 million, $359 PTA, $2.05 million cume

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 11:02 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef00e5543ea4e98833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Tropic Thunder' Drowns Out 'House Bunny' for Weekend Win; Statham's 'Death Race' No. 3 with $12.2M; 'Dark Knight' at No. 4 and Should Reach $500M by Labor Day!:

Comments

undeadmonkey

Hey Mase... have you heard anything of how Hamlet 2 did in limited release?

Posted by: undeadmonkey | August 22, 2008 at 11:10 PM

wrongturn687

Woah !, now this is interesting. I did not expect DR to get destroyed by THB. I guess their was more appeal and intrest in that movie than I thought, but I still expected DR to get a bigger crowd since movie like it which are testosorone fueled rides usually bring out young males in droves, but I guess they would rather see a movie about sexy playmates which is understandable, but the results are still pretty suprising. As, for TT I'm glad its holding up well because it deserves the success.

Posted by: wrongturn687 | August 22, 2008 at 11:28 PM

elduderino

I had Tropic Thunder pulling a repeat, and House Bunny doing at least $12, but I didn't expect it to outdraw the first weekend of Death Race. Girl power has been in full effect this summer. And man, Clone Wars is bombing almost as badly as the X-Files did. I had that thing down for $50m easy. Whoops.

And if I read one more mention Michael Phelps reference in the box office reports I'm going to vomit.

Posted by: elduderino | August 23, 2008 at 01:27 AM

Bob

Yeah Mase, i too would like to know how Hamlet 2 did.

I guess the commercial for the Rocker was wrong. Instead of being the sleeper hit of the summer, it was the movie that people slept and forgot about.

Posted by: Bob | August 23, 2008 at 05:40 AM

Squirrel

The Rocker sold just eleven tickets at my theater all day yesterday. It won't even make it to Week Two; we're dropping that turkey on Thursday. Now all we need is for Nick and Norah to fall on its face...

Very surprising that Death Race didn't do better. I expect it to be front-loaded (More so than House Bunny, at any rate), so I suppose a second-place upset is out of the question. Very glad on the news for Tropic, and I'd like to see the numbers for Hamlet 2 as well.

Posted by: Squirrel | August 23, 2008 at 06:40 AM

Webster

My girlfriend wants to see House Bunny today, which, thankfully, got better reviews than the "mahi mahi" joke might suggest. (I've seen worse.) I think Mase is wrong about HB finishing #2; it takes Saturday, and the weekend.

The Rocker looked DOA to me weeks ago--generic title, unappealing lead (Rainn Wilson was the worst thing in Juno, no matter how funny he was hosting the IFC Awards). Walk Hard II in B.O. appeal.

Posted by: Webster | August 23, 2008 at 07:12 AM

Lester Hayes

i hate this time of the year. these movies are pathetic. DRACE has such a lame preview i am taking great joy it's tanking. LNGSH is a joke. i can't believe any studio would allow fred durst to direct a movie. the ROCKR is just sad. rainn wilson is no movie star. he probably couldn't be identified with a photo by half of america. the only one that is somewhat acceptable is HBUNY. anna faris and emma stone are hot so at least there is that. revenge of the nerds meets legally blonde - but not as funny and not as good (certainly nowhere near as popular).

Posted by: Lester Hayes | August 23, 2008 at 11:55 AM

Bob

i just checked boxofficemojo.com and it stated that hamlet 2 made $145,000 in 103 theaters

Posted by: Bob | August 23, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Vince

According to boxofficemojo.com, it looks like "Hamlet 2" didn't do all that well in limited release. $145,000 at around 100 sites...a little over $1400 average seems like a disappointment to me (even "House Bunny" had a better average!). But "Napoleon Dynamite" started slow too and kept building, so who knows how this one might turn up...

Posted by: Vince | August 23, 2008 at 12:22 PM

Wes

We opened Hamlet 2 at my theatre. I was expecting a decent turnout. I don't think there was more than 10 people in any show on Friday night. What a huge disappointment for a very funny film.

Posted by: Wes | August 23, 2008 at 12:37 PM

tom

happy that Vicky Christina Barcelona dropped only 24% on fri... made 850k on 692 screens. 5th best per screen.

Posted by: tom | August 23, 2008 at 01:21 PM

Ryan

Haha! TOLD YOU GUYS that HOUSE BUNNY would be a bigger opener than expected. However, Mase, I think it will be #1, not being front-loaded as you think. ROCKER looked like a flop from the start, but I am surprised it did as bad as it did, expecting it to atleast outperform LONGSHOTS. Anyword on HAMLET 2 though? I saw it Friday and my local indie theater that is always packed and it was EMPTY! It was kind of middling to me and not as good as it was built up to be. The IMDB rating of 5.6 is pretty accurate. Glad VCB held up good though, THAT was a good movie.

Posted by: Ryan | August 23, 2008 at 03:51 PM

dranscht

We've actually had a lot of occurrences so far this weekend with underage kids buying House Bunny tickets and then sneaking into Tropic Thunder. Not sure how widespread that trend is, and probably no more so than any other weekend, but maybe that's helping the Bunny numbers a little bit.

Posted by: dranscht | August 23, 2008 at 06:01 PM

jake

I'm so glad that the house bunny defied expectations and could open at number one -- it's a funny film and certainly the star making performance that should catapult Anna Faris even more -- it is her best performance. Kinda of a mix between legally blonde and revenge of the nerds.

Posted by: jake | August 23, 2008 at 08:43 PM

tom

VCB did better per screen than Hamlet 2. dropped 20%. Only dropped one place to 11th with 4 new wide releases. not bad for weinstein. a 4 million dollar pickup looks like it has a good shot at 20 million or more... assuming it doesn't go wider than the 700 screens.

Posted by: tom | August 24, 2008 at 11:18 AM

leo

Hamlet 2 had planned to go wide this coming weekend. That PSA is not good, so I wonder just how wide it will open.

Posted by: leo | August 25, 2008 at 06:50 AM

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.

You are currently signed in as (nobody). Sign Out

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service