WEEKEND ESTIMATES: Batman Wins Again! 'The Dark Knight' Surges on Saturday to Upset New 'Mummy' Movie for Weekend Win and Should Pass $400M Domestic on Monday; Costner's $21M Bet on 'Swing Vote' Goes Bust!
by Steve Mason
SUNDAY 2:00 p.m. (Pacific): This weekend started out looking like a win for Universal and its return to Brendan Fraser's The Mummy franchise, but The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) continued to confound industry veterans and prognosticators by pulling ahead on Saturday to stage a surprising upset.
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor still seems like a smart play for Universal. The problem is that The Dark Knight is an overwhelming hit, and nothing seems to "grow well in the shade," especially when it is chasing the same audience quadrants that are feeding the Warner Bros. box-office behemoth.
With Fraser returning to his mummy-battling ways, this time with the world's most populous country, China, as a backdrop, and with international superstar Jet Li as the big villain, Tomb of the Dragon Emperor will definitely make money. It will rely heavily, however, on foreign sales. Tomb of the Dragon Emperor finished the weekend with an estimated $42.45 million, which is softer than the first two films in the franchise. For Fraser, it marks his all-time third-best opening:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 BRENDAN FRASER OPENINGS
1. The Mummy Returns — $68.13 million opening
2. The Mummy — $43.36 million opening
3. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor — $42.45 million opening (Estimated)
4. Journey To the Center of the Earth — $21 million opening
5. George of the Jungle — $16.54 million opening
Meanwhile, the new Mummy movie is the all-time second-best opening for director and effects wizard Rob Cohen:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENINGS FOR ROB COHEN-DIRECTED FILMS
1. xXx — $44.5 million opening
3. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor — $42.45 million opening (Estimated)
3. The Fast and the Furious — $40.08 million opening
4. Dragonheart — $15 million opening
5. Stealth — $13.25 million opening
Despite its not-quite-historic stateside start, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor opened in 28 overseas territories with an estimated $59 million. That is a bigger number than either of the previous Mummy films managed in the same foreign markets. I believe that Tomb of the Dragon Emperor will easily exceed $100 million domestic (probably $125 million-$135 million) and the worldwide number should approach $400 million.
Warner Bros. is reporting $43.8 million for The Dark Knight this weekend, and competing studios are telling me that the figure will likely bounce to $44.4 million or so when actuals are released. It is now clear that teens and kids (with their parents) are seeing this PG-13 superhero film, accounting for massive weekday numbers and a very healthy 37 percent Saturday matinee bounce over the weekend. Much has been written about the tone of this movie being overwhelmingly dark, and it is certainly not intended for kids, but the message of the film, to me, is optimistic. In fact, it is a relentlessly optimistic movie.
TDK has moments that are disturbing, downright twisted and exceedingly creepy. Heath Ledger's Joker is essentially an insane sociopath, but, without spoiling the film for the three or four people who have not seen it already, his efforts to force ordinary citizens of Gotham to take part in the mayhem he wreaks, generally fail. Ultimately, what we learn from The Dark Knight is that, even when given bleak choices, people from all walks of life have the capacity do the right thing. My best projection for how high The Dark Knight will fly is $480 million domestic. That would make it the all-time second-highest grossing movie in U.S. history, behind only Titanic at $600 million, and just ahead of Star Wars at $461 million.
There has been some speculation that The Dark Knight may ultimately overtake Titanic, but that seems more like fanboy zeal than anything else. I do not believe that any movie will ever manage that feat. The James Cameron-directed Best Picture winner was No. 1 for 15 consecutive weekends, and it was in the Top 5 for a total of 20 three-day frames. It racked up $600 million domestic, but it never generated more than $35.45 million in a single weekend. Just like that overplayed Celine Dion theme song, Titanic went "on and on."
Sony's Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, enjoyed a good weekend hold. The R-rated comedy added an estimated $16.2 million, good enough to nab third place, with a new cume of almost $63 million. Meryl Streep's musical turn in Mamma Mia! (Universal) continues to do brisk business at No. 4, scoring another $13.12 million for the three-day. The ABBA-inspired Broadway adaptation has banked about $88 million.
Finally, Kevin Costner's self-produced and self-financed Swing Vote (Disney) is off to an underwhelming start with a sixth-place finish. The Academy Award winner invested $21 million out of his own pocket in the politically-driven counterprogrammer, and the movie picked up just $6.3 million on its opening weekend. That places it behind the still strong family-fueled Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.), which added $6.87 million for a new cume of $73 million.
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $43.8 million, $10,267 PTA, $394.88 million cume
2. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $42.45 million, $11,289 PTA, $42.45 million cume
3. Step Brothers (Sony) — $16.3 million, $5,268 PTA, $62.96 million cume
4. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $13.12 million, $4,285 PTA, $87.97 million
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $6.87 million, $3,008 PTA, $73.1 million cume
6. Swing Vote (Disney) — $6.3 million, $2,846 PTA, $6.3 million cume
7. Hancock (Sony) — $5.2 million, $1,869 PTA, $215.99 million cume
8. WALL-E (Disney) — $4.19 million, $1,642 PTA, $203.66 million cume
9. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $3.42 million, $1,075 PTA, $17.06 million cume
10. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $2.84 million, $1,330 PTA, $22.09 million cume
SUNDAY 7:00 a.m. (Pacific): The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) will wrap up the weekend with $42.5 million, well behind industry expectations, which were for more than $50 million. Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight scored another $44.8 million, pushing the Batman Begins sequel to $395.88 million domestic.
Industry execs continue shaking their heads and saying that they have never seen anything like The Dark Knight. The film got a nice 37 percent bounce on Saturday, and I am standing by my projection of $480 million domestic, which would make it the second-highest grossing U.S. movie of all-time, trailing only Titanic.
For Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, despite a not-quite-historic stateside start, it opened in 28 overseas territories with an estimated $59 million. That is a bigger number than either of the previous Mummy films managed in the same foreign markets. It should also be pointed out that Tomb of the Dragon Emperor will easily exceed $100 million domestic (probably $125 million-$135 million) and the worldwide number should approach $400 million.
Sony's Step Brothers is a strong No. 3 for the three-day with $15.5 million, and a new cume $62.16 million, followed by Mamma Mia! (Universal) with $13.1 million, bringing its total U.S. take to about $88 million. Kevin Costner, who says that he invested $21 million of his own money in Swing Vote (Disney), may have trouble recouping his investment. The politically-themed comedy managed only $7 million on its opening weekend.
FRIDAY 9:00 p.m. (Pacific): The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) has met his match. Brendan Fraser's The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) scored an excellent $16.5 million opening day. That is stronger than the $14.45 million first day enjoyed by The Mummy in 1999, but shy of the $23.38 million first-day launch The Mummy Returns in 2001. The new Mummy movie seems headed for a decent $43.5 million three-day opening, slightly below industry expectations. Tomb of the Dragon Emperor marks the all-time second-best opening for actor Brendan Fraser, trailing only The Mummy Returns:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 BRENDAN FRASER OPENINGS
1. The Mummy Returns — $68.13 million opening
2. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor — $43.5 million opening (Estimated)
3. The Mummy — $43.36 million opening
4. Journey To the Center of the Earth — $21 million opening
5. George of the Jungle — $16.54 million opening
It's also the second-best opening for director Rob Cohen, trailing only xXx:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 OPENINGS FOR ROB COHEN-DIRECTED FILMS
1. xXx — $44.5 million opening
3. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor — $43.5 million opening (Estimated)
3. The Fast and the Furious — $40.08 million opening
4. Dragonheart — $15 million opening
5. Stealth — $13.25 million opening
Looking forward, sources at competing studios say that the new film will likely finish in the $125 million-$135 million range, which would be less than the $155 million domestic scored by the franchise starter, and far less than the $202 million cume grabbed by its 2001 sequel. Still, moving the film's location to China and adding international superstar Jet Li to the marquee should boost international grosses, especially in Asian markets.
Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins sequel is not slowing down much, grabbing an estimated $12.31 million on its third Friday, which should translate to around $41 million for the three-day. That represents just a 47 percent drop from last weekend. If that number holds, then The Dark Knight will reach a new cume of $392 million by Monday, which makes it a virtual cinch for $450 million domestic, and, when all is said and done, I am projecting that TDK can reach $480 million. That would make it the all-time second-highest grossing movie in US history, behind only Titanic at $600 million, and just ahead of Star Wars ($461 million).
There has been some speculation that The Dark Knight may ultimately overtake James Cameron's "ship of dreams," but that seems like more fanboy zeal than anything else. I do not believe that any movie will ever manage that feat. The Leonardo DiCaprio/Kate Winslet-starring Best Picture winner was No. 1 for 15 consecutive weekends, and it was in the Top 5 for a total of 20 three-day frames. It racked up $600 million domestic, but it never generated more than $35.45 million over a single weekend. Just like its overplayed Celine Dion theme song, Titanic went "on and on."
Sony's Step Brothers, starring Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly, is enjoying a good weekend hold. The R-rated comedy added an estimated $5.25 million on its second Friday. That should add up to a healthy $15.2 million three-day, enough for third place, and a new cume of almost $62 million. Meryl Streep's musical turn in Mamma Mia! (Universal) continues to do brisk business at No. 4, scoring another $3.9 million on Friday and a likely $12.67 million for the three-day. The ABBA-inspired Broadway adaptation will have banked about $87.5 million by Monday.
Kevin Costner's self-produced and self-financed Swing Vote (Disney) is off to an underwhelming start with a fifth-place finish on Friday. The Academy Award winner invested $21 million in this politically-themed counterprogrammer, and the movie picked up just $2 million on its opening day. In one of his classic lovable loser roles, Costner will probably reach about $6 million with in the first three days in release for Swing Vote, which will likely drop it to No. 6 for the weekend behind the estimated $6.83 million for the family-fueled Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.).
One other box office nugget of note: WALL-E (Disney), Andrew Stanton's amazing animated gem from Pixar, scooped up another $1.2 million or so on Friday, lifting the lonely little robot past the $200 million mark.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $16.5 million, $4,389 PTA, $16.5 million cume
2. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $12.31 million, $2,886 PTA, $363.39 million cume
3. Step Brothers (Sony) — $5.25 million, $1,697 PTA, $51.91 million cume
4. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $3.9 million, $1,275 PTA, $78.75 million cume
5. NEW Swing Vote (Disney) — $2 million, $904 PTA, $2 million cume
6. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $1.92 million, $843 PTA, $68.19 million cume
7. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $1.75 million, $552 PTA, $15.39 million cume
8. Hancock (Sony) — $1.5 million, $540 PTA, $212.29 million cume
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $1.21 million, $476 PTA, $200.69 million cume
10. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $950,000, $374 PTA, $20.2 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $43.5 million, $11,572 PTA, $43.5 million cume
2. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $41 million, $9,611 PTA, $392.08 million cume
3. Step Brothers (Sony) — $15.2 million, $4,913 PTA, $61.86 million cume
4. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $12.67 million, $4,142 PTA, $87.52 million
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $6.83 million, $2,993 PTA, $73.1 million cume
6. NEW Swing Vote (Disney) — $6.02 million, $2,720 PTA, $6.02 million cume
7. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $5.09 million, $1,600 PTA, $18.73 million cume
8. Hancock (Sony) — $4.8 million, $1,728 PTA, $215.6 million cume
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $4.19 million, $1,642 PTA, $203.66 million cume
10. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $3.04 million, $1,198 PTA, $22.29 million cume
"I do not believe that any movie will ever manage that feat."
While I'm inclined to agree that the Dark Knight won't accomplish this, and also that it's grotesquely unlikely we shall ever see another film top the charts with as much longevity as Titanic, it seems awfully short-sighted to say that no film will ever again top the 600M mark.
It's a matter of when, not if. Each year, as ticket prices increase, the grosses of the big films just goes up and up. Unless ticket prices actually start to plummet, it's a mathematical certainty that one day that record will topple.
Which is all the more reason to keep an eye on the adjusted for inflation grosses if one wants some perspective on these things. Today's 300M blockbuster, after all, is yesterday's 200M blockbuster.
Posted by: maht | August 01, 2008 at 11:53 PM
I knew Swing Vote would make a great Bankrupts pick.
Posted by: Buscemi | August 02, 2008 at 12:11 AM
I agree with maht, a statement like: "I do not believe that any movie will ever manage that feat. (outgrossing Titanic)" seems to be really silly coming from somebody who knows quite a bit about the box office. For all your knowledge about the numbers, you quite often write really strange and unqualified stuff.
Posted by: Kit Sung | August 02, 2008 at 01:36 AM
I don't think Dark Knight will top Titanic either. But I would not be surprised to see it top $500M domestic.
Posted by: Ian | August 02, 2008 at 04:58 AM
X-Files, wake up! What are you doing! Make some more money! Sheesh. I wanted to believe in you. I DID believe you. And you have failed me.
Anyways, good to see the Journey is hanging in there. And as for the Dark Knight, know one thought it could have made as much as it has now, so why not break Titanics record? I don't think we should completely rule it out. Certainly it's possible. It won't be at #1 forever (obvious from this weekend), but it could stay in the top three, even five, and make a decent amount of money for many weeks to come.
Posted by: tyson | August 02, 2008 at 05:54 AM
Guys, the Dark Knight will hit $500 million domestic. Easily. What is this about "virtual clinch for $450 million"? It looks like it will finish with arund $510-520 million, maybe more.
Posted by: J.I. | August 02, 2008 at 07:42 AM
Steve -- you "weren't in the camp" that thought it would break the 3 day record of spiderman 3 so I find it funny that even with being wrong with that -- you can feel that strongly and say that it won't and can't beat titanic. I don't think it will either and I'm not sure why everyone is making an issue about it anyways. They can't be happy with the records that the dark knight was broken that they always have to put the titanic in there.
Also, can you believe this -- david poland at movie city news says that there's no chance it will be nominated for best picture.
Posted by: James | August 02, 2008 at 11:30 AM
I think Steve is right about TDK not breaking Titanic's record. Say $392M for this weekend and another 40M for the week. That is 432M (remarkable). Then say it does $40M for the rest of next week. $472M. Then $20M, then $15M, then $10M for the next three weeks. That is a lowball for $517M. It is burning out to quickly (even at its remarkably low drops) to beat Titanic.
Posted by: Ryan | August 02, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Records were meant to be broken and I believe all records stand a chance of being broken, someday. The only question is will it be during my lifetime. Not saying it couldn't but I doubt it. Meanwhile I am back to catching "HELLBOY2" for a second viewing this weekend. Hopefully I and others can help this fine film reach 80m. Or there others out there.
Posted by: jdls08 | August 02, 2008 at 01:29 PM
In my lifetime I've seen the top all-time domestic BO title change hands 5 times...and I'm 40. I fully expect it to change hands again in the next 25 years. Maybe even more than once.
Posted by: Arjaybee | August 02, 2008 at 03:49 PM
When All Is Said And Done The Dark Knight Will Be The Highest Comic Book Movie Ever Made
Posted by: salva | August 02, 2008 at 06:03 PM
Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought when Titanic came out and made its 600 mil I heard that Gone With the Wind, in adjusted dollars had made over a billion? And maybe over by quite a bit? How in the world can you compare box office numbers over decades without working in adjustments for inflation. Even Titanic, ticket prices in Toronto were around 7.95, now they're 11.95. Doesn't that mean Dark Knight has to make 900 mil to compare, at least in Toronto? It's a great movie and deserves every dollar it makes. I just think we cheapen it when we start to compare it to Titanic and Gone With The Wind, or whatever older standard you might have.
Posted by: craig | August 02, 2008 at 06:15 PM
According to boxofficemojo.com, when they adjust for inflation they use average ticket prices of (using years for TDK, Titanic, and Gone with the Wind):
2008: $7.08
1998: $4.69
1997: $4.59
1940: $0.24
1939: $0.23
But some movies get re-issued in later years and so the amounts from the re-issues need to be adjusted for their year. Boxofficemojo.com lists the all time with inflation adjustment here:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
That shows $1.43 billion for GWTW with TDK at #86 and still behind Tootsie (although TDK will no doubt pass that one). It needs to get to $556 million to match Forrest Gump with inflation according to that.
Posted by: Darin | August 02, 2008 at 08:07 PM
what about when it is re-released during oscar season? best supporting actor, technical awards and possibly movie and director. this movie will cruise to 525. the real question is will it get closer and start to make this thing interesting.
Posted by: Lester Hayes | August 02, 2008 at 09:13 PM
Batman actually beat The Mummy on Friday at my theater by a pretty wide margin. I think the Mummy will end the weekend with about $38 million while The Dark Knight will end with slightly less than that, maybe $37 million or so. Then next weekend, TDK remains in second while Mummy falls to third (Or fourth, depending on how big of a surprise Sisterhood is).
What I'm waiting for is the arrival of both Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express. The buzz for PE is so hot at my theater, I'm already convinced there's no way it can bomb... but, if Tropic Thunder bombed, it should be incredibly easy for TDK to top $500 million.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 02, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Craig's right. Taking account inflation, all this talk about DK beating Titanic's numbers is pure nonsense.
Posted by: syd | August 03, 2008 at 04:59 AM
I'm pretty confident that there will not be a re- issue of The Dark Knight in theaters before the Oscars, Lester, as it will be available on DVD by then. There is no way they are not going to capitalize on the holiday market, a Dark Knight DVD in every stocking this Christmas.
Mase, a lot of us really miss the Saturday night updates. The numbers weren't always perfect, but it gave us some what of an idea on how things were rolling. I hope you consider bringing it back. Some of us moguls need daily fixes on the weekends.
Thanks for your time and input.
Posted by: synestro | August 03, 2008 at 05:02 AM
They also have Saturday updates at deadlinehollywooddaily.com
I personally like to get my early B.O. info here, but that place is a good backup.
Posted by: Nick | August 03, 2008 at 05:32 AM
Finke says TDK beat Mummy on Saturday... I always thought there was an outside chance of that happening if the Friday numbers were close enough. I thought the family matinees might have saved Mummy, but it appears not.
If Finke is right, then Batman will have made $400 million in nineteen days, beating the previous record (43 days, haha!) set by Shrek 2. $500 million is still a real possibility, especially with underage kids looking to sneak into Pineapple and Tropic.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 03, 2008 at 06:38 AM
Why is everybody saying that "The Dark Knight might be able to get $500 million when it is all said and done"? The Dark Knight will hit the $500 million mark easily. Easily. $530 million looks like the best estimate for now.
And salva, no duh it is going to be the biggest comic book movie ever. It will be the biggest comic book movie ever on Tuesday.
Wow, the Dark Knight was about $0.3 million away from breaking the third weekend record. Maybe it can go ahead with the actuals.
Posted by: J.I. | August 03, 2008 at 08:28 AM
What is the third weekend record and who holds it?
Posted by: elessar | August 03, 2008 at 08:36 AM
45 mill and Spiderman holds it.
Posted by: JackO | August 03, 2008 at 09:32 AM
I believe TDK will finish around 485-515mil domestic. As amazing a B.O. force it is, it just shows how tough a task it is to try and take down Titanic's 600mil take. Starting next weekend, TDK's grosses will start falling behind Titanic's. Titanic didn't open big like modern blockbusters, but it was just a freak of nature by posting around 25-30mil weekend grosses during it's 2nd month of release and so on
Posted by: jarred | August 03, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Darin, Thanks for the information on all time adjusted grosses. I really was impressed by just how big Titanic was after looking at it. I remember talking to people who never went to the movies who had seen it 5 or 6 times. And that was during a time when the video would be coming out to own in six months. When I saw Jaws for the first time, no video, it was on television with some of the choisest bits cut out. And now Dark Knight has to deal with guys like me, see it once in the theater and then wait to watch it again on my big screen.
Posted by: craig | August 03, 2008 at 11:27 AM
How much has TDK made internationally? Is it doing as well as the Spider-Man films did overseas?
Posted by: Chris` | August 03, 2008 at 11:39 AM