FINAL TRACKING: 'Tropic Thunder' Targets $45M 5-Day; 'Clone Wars' Likely No. 2 with $20M-$23M; 'The Dark Knight' Falls to Third Place; 'Mirrors' Looking at $10M-$13M!
by Steve Mason
A well-placed studio source told me this week that there's probably only one "big-time" movie remaining on the release schedule for August, and, no surprise, it is Ben Stiller's Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount). With a highly anticipated performance from Iron Man star Robert Downey Jr. and a buzzed-about, scene-stealing turn by Tom Cruise, Thunder has been everybody's sure-fire late summer hit for months, and industry tracking points to an excellent five-day opening, starting Wednesday, and an almost certain weekend win.
The Beijing Olympics are a huge ratings win for NBC, and films in release this weekend will need to contend with Michael Phelps's pursuit of eight gold medals at the Water Cube in China. The Baltimore-raised aquatic superstar will swim in his final event Sunday night. The Summer Olympic Games generally, and Phelps specifically — at least until/unless he loses — have the potential to dampen the weekend numbers at America's movie theaters, but Tropic Thunder, like last week's Pineapple Express (Sony) and The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.), is getting a jump on the field with a midweek opening.
I am anticipating $11 million-$13 million on Wednesday for the DreamWorks/Paramount property, and the film will likely bank $43 million-$46 million by Monday morning, slightly better than the five-day performance for Pineapple Express last week. The traditional three-day will fall in the $24 million-$27 million range, which will probably be enough to win the weekend.
The George Lucas-produced animated Star Wars film The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) is a likely No. 2 for the weekend, but it may struggle. A competing studio exec tells me that, according to industry tracking, the percentage of moviegoers who say that they have no interest in the film outnumbers those who say they have Definite Interest, which is not a good sign. Still, hardcore Star Wars fans could power the film to $8 million-$11 million Friday and a front-loaded three-day of $20 million-$23 million.
Mega-hit The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) will likely be knocked from the No. 1 spot this weekend, dipping to $15 million-$18 million. Last Friday, I projected $515 million-$520 million domestic for the Christopher Nolan-directed comic book adaptation, and Warner Bros. distribution president Dan Fellman offered the same numbers in a Monday Hollywood Reporter story.
Fellman also told THR that "Titanic was once in a lifetime, and I don't think we'll ever have another gross like that in the history of the industry." Those are the same sentiments I have been expressing for weeks. There has been a fundamental change in the way movies are distributed, and, with 4,000 location and 10,000 screen openings, it is completely improbable for any future Hollywood movie to demonstrate the week-after-week resilience that pushed Titanic to $600 million domestic.
The other wide release this weekend is Mirrors (20th Century Fox), from The Hills Have Eyes director Alexandre Aja. May's The Strangers (Rogue) demonstrated that there is still room in the market for an R-rated horror film, but this one does not have nearly the same market traction according to industry tracking. 24 star Kiefer Sutherland's first feature since 2006's The Sentinel seems headed for $10 million-$13 million.
There is a hodgepodge of limited releases also debuting Friday, each on fewer than 1,000 screens. I am anticipating $3 million-$5 million for Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Co.), $2 million-$4 million for Summit's 3D animated family movie Fly Me To the Moon and $1 million-$2 million for Henry Poole Is Here (Overture), starring Luke Wilson.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUG. 15-17
1. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $25 million (five-day total of $45 million)
2. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — $21.5 million
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $16.6 million
4. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $12.5 million
5. Mirrors (20th Century Fox) — $11.8 million
6. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $8.3 million
7. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.) — $6.5 million
8. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $5.4 million
9. Step Brothers (Sony) — $5.2 million
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Co.) — $4.6 million
* Fly Me To the Moon (Summit) — $3.3 million
* Henry Poole Is Here (Overture) — $1.25 million
Always great updates Mr. Mason. Thank you for that! My prediction for The Clone Wars is a nasty 11M opening - very reminiscent of another movie that nobody was interested to see except for the true fans: X-Files - I Want To Believe. Jabba The Hut's son? Animation that looks like a video game? Yes, you heard it here first, STAR WARS THE CLONE WARS is gonna bomb!
Posted by: Louis | August 12, 2008 at 06:51 PM
I also think that the clone wars has bomb potential. there is absolutely nothing interesting and if it wasn't for the words star wars no one would be interested.
Posted by: Bob | August 12, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Titanic is once in a lifetime, yet the dark knight is predicted to get within 80 million of Titanic's gross? Anyone else see the insane logic in saying that there is no way that it will surpass titanic, yet it still is quite close?
Posted by: jake | August 13, 2008 at 11:08 AM
Steve, I've been noticing over the last few weeks that your mentions of Titanic always come with statements to the effect that no movie will ever surpass Titanic's $600 million domestic. Of course a movie will surpass that eventually if for no other reason than ticket prices keep going up and up. What I think you must mean is that it is unlikely that any other movie will match Titanic in terms of ticket sales and weeks at number one. That I'd agree with. But $600 million? I'd put even money on that happening in the next 5 years.
Posted by: Alan | August 13, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Given that Titanic is only #6 all time when adjusted for inflation and not adjusting for inflation favors later movies, I think chances are good that some movie will pass Titanic for just absolute total gross. If comparing after adjustments for inflation Titanic isn't the target anyway. Here is what boxofficemojo.com lists for all time after adjustments for inflation:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm
While the number of screens things open on makes things more front loaded, I don't think that it hurts the big movie's total grosses. If it did the studios would probably limit the number of screens that could show their big movie. And a big 3D movie could have longevity from the natural limitation of less screens to show on, plus higher ticket prices for 3D could push their gross. If James Cameron's Avatar ends up as good and popular as some of his previous movies, it could be an interesting one to watch.
Consider what a movie like ET did back in 1982. In the 5 years of 1980 to 1982 there were 14 total movies that made over $100 million (in the US). In the 5 years of 2003 to 2007 there were 119 total movies that made over $100 million. Yet, ET brought in almost $360 million in 1982 dollars (over $800 million adjusted for inflation to 2008). Would a new movie that makes a splash like ET did then (and is as much of a family movie) sell significantly less tickets overall from opening on more screens?
Posted by: Darin | August 13, 2008 at 12:33 PM
Why is everyone falling over "Tropic Thunder" and "Pineapple Express"? "TT" doesn't even look like it will be this huge blockbuster anyway. But the weekened prediction looks realistic. I saw a $54 Million Dollar prediction on another site and just shook my head. The Clone Wars prediction looks way too high. I don't know anyone who wants to see that movie, and the trailer is always met with silence when I see it at the movie theater. That sucker is going to BOMB...
Posted by: B- | August 13, 2008 at 12:36 PM
VCB (vicky christina barcelona) i see you predict 4-5 which would be good for a 700 release... but i live in LA and am having trouble finding where this sucker is even playing. it's not listed on movietickets.com's new release page, and the other ticket sites have scattered theaters. and none in hollywood. did weinstein/mgm run out of theaters? i think they picked a bad busy weekend. there would have been more theaters avail in fall. it has a young hot cast and is getting great reviews. i understand middle america has trouble getting woody allen films but they always play well here. and 2 of his last 3 have done well for small releases. 10 mill for scoop and 23 mill for match point.
Posted by: dom | August 13, 2008 at 02:36 PM