FINAL TRACKING: 'Tropic Thunder' Likely to Hold Off 'Babylon A.D.' for Labor Day Weekend Win!; 'Disaster Movie' May Finish No. 3; 'College,' 'Hamlet 2' and 'Traitor' Likely to Miss Top 5!
by Steve Mason
The end of August is a dumping ground for marginal movies that are, in many cases, barely worthy of release. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer once made friends on "the island of misfit toys," but not even Rudolph would pay to see any of the "misfit movies" that are opening Labor Day weekend.
I am putting my money on a third consecutive weekend win for Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) with another excellent hold. With Ben Stiller, Robert Downey Jr., Jack Black and Tom Cruise all continuing to generate laughs, the Stiller-directed satire may have just enough juice to win another weekend with a three-day of $11 million-$13 million (my prediction is $12.5 million) and a four-day of $14.5 million-$16.5 million (I am calling for $15.75 million). That would push its U.S. cume to $86 million-$88 million. At this pace, Thunder appears headed for $115 million-$120 million domestic.
French director Matthieu Kassovitz's Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) will probably finish at No. 2, the strongest opener of a weak crop of new titles. The last movie from Kassovitz, Gothika starring Halle Berry, was a disappointment with a $19.2 million opening. This Vin Diesel sci-fi vehicle will open even softer. Barely screened for critics, Babylon will likely finish with a three-day of $11 million-$13 million, probably a tick below Tropic Thunder, and I am targeting $14.5 million for the four-day Labor Day weekend.
Vin Diesel, whose career seemed promising after his variety of early roles in Saving Private Ryan, The Iron Giant and Pitch Black, will likely post only the sixth-best opening of his career, behind xXx ($44.5 million), The Fast and the Furious ($40 million), The Pacifier ($30.5 million), The Chronicles of Riddick ($24.3 million) and Pitch Black ($11.6 million) (Saving Private Ryan would figure on that list, except that Diesel's role in the movie lasts only a few minutes.)
The latest Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer spoof movie seems headed for a performance well below their previous parodies. Tracking for Disaster Movie is pointing toward $9 million-$11 million for three days and $11 million-$13 million for the Friday-thru-Monday period. If my three-day number of $10.5 million holds, it will finish behind previous Friedberg/Seltzer openings Scary Movie 3 ($48.1 million), Scary Movie ($42.3 million), Scary Movie 4 ($40.2 million), Scary Movie 2 ($20.5 million), Epic Movie ($18.6 million) and Meet the Spartans ($18.5 million).
The Anna Faris comedy The House Bunny (Sony) has a strong chance of hopping to a No. 4 finish with $8 million-$10 million (my call is $9.3 million) for the traditional weekend and $10 million-$12 million (I see $11 million) for the long holiday weekend. The PG-13-rated comedy's new cume will be at about $30 million by Tuesday morning.
MGM has rounded up an odd group of young actors to star in College. Included in the cast are Drake Bell, who has 54 episodes of the Nickelodeon series Drake & Josh on his resume, along with Andrew Cardwell (a few episodes of Hannah Montana on the Disney Channel), Kevin Covais (the singer known as Chicken Little from American Idol), Alona Tal (10 episodes of Veronica Mars on the CW) and Ryan Pinkston (a season of the Andy Richter series Quintuplets). With virtually no Awareness, little Definite Interest and a very soft First Choice, College will struggle to $3 million-$4 million for the three-day and $4 million-$5 million for the four-day.
The satiric comedy Hamlet 2 (Focus) expands to 1,500 screens on Friday, but the Sundance Film Festival favorite has limited upside. I am expecting about $3.7 million for the three-day and $4.5 million by Tuesday morning. That three-day would represent only Director Andrew Fleming's sixth-best opening, trailing Threesome and Bad Dreams, both at $4 million, but ahead of his political satire Dick ($2.2 million).
Meanwhile, Don Cheadle's Traitor (Overture), getting a jump on the weekend with a Wednesday opening, is receiving decent reviews and could reach $3.6 million for Friday-thru-Sunday, $4.4 million for the four-day and about $5.6 million for six days. This will continue the streak of soft "war on terror"-themed movies that has included films like Lions for Lambs ($6.7 million), Rendition ($4 million) and In the Valley of Elah ($1.5 million).
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 3-DAY WEEKEND OF AUG. 29-31
1. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $12.5 million
2. NEW Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $12.4 million
3. NEW Disaster Movie (Lionsgate) — $10.5 million
4. The House Bunny (Sony) — $9.3 million
5. Death Race (Universal) — $8.75 million
6. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $7 million
7. NEW College (20th Century Fox) — $4.2 million
8. Hamlet 2 (Focus) — $3.7 million
9. NEW Traitor (Overture) — $3.6 million
10. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $2.9 million
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 4-DAY WEEKEND OF AUG. 29-SEPT. 1
1. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $15.75 million
2. NEW Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $14.5 million
3. NEW Disaster Movie (Lionsgate) — $12.6 million
4. The House Bunny (Sony) — $11 million
5. Death Race (Universal) — $10.8 million
6. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $8.3 million
7. NEW College (20th Century Fox) — $5 million
8. Hamlet 2 (Focus) — $4.5 million
9. NEW Traitor (Overture) — $4.4 million [$5.7 million for 6 days]
10. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $3.5 million
Although this sounds plausible Mr. Mason, I still think that "Disaster Movie" will do better than you expect. Granted, "Superhero Movie" this year showed that people might be getting tired of the crappy parody movie, but the promotion for this movie is way better. Never underestimate the power of people with bad movie taste.
I think Babylon A.D. is going to bomb. Badly. Remember a year ago when everyone said that the Nic Cage movie "Next" was going to be #1 by default, but was beaten by Disturbia in its 3rd weekend? Yeah, this is gonna play out just like that.
Posted by: Vince | August 27, 2008 at 10:35 PM
no offense man but you sound stupid when you get facts wrong... this writing team didn't write scary movie 2, 3 and 4... they just did 1. if you see them listed as writers it's for "based on characters created by" credit.
Posted by: dom | August 28, 2008 at 09:52 AM
The sad thing is -- is that Superhero movie (by airplane creators) was one of the funniest of it's kind -- parody wise but not as many people saw it because they were burned by these guys who also put out spoofs -- Epic Movie -- one of the worst i've ever seen and date movie and now this.
Posted by: jake | August 28, 2008 at 12:27 PM
Nonsense Vince; I expect Babylon AD to win the weekend by a fairly decent margin. I highly doubt it will bomb; it will probably open above Death Race.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 28, 2008 at 08:05 PM
hey,,jake don't forget 'meet the spartan'...I also think TT will beat Babylon A.D. but I don't think Disaster Movie will be number three....It won't even make it to top 10 or will barely make it to top 10 (at least i hope), This one is fourth one...c'mon..do people still want to see this?? Well, I'm only waiting for 'Burn after reading' and 'Choke'.or.I may change my mind later
Posted by: Steve | August 29, 2008 at 08:26 PM