FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Pineapple Express' Likely to Grab $35M Weds.-Sun., but Probably Not 'High' Enough to Beat the Bat; 'Pants 2' Could Top $20M for 5-Day Frame; 'Dragon Emperor' Headed Over a Cliff!
by Steve Mason
Whereas The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) was an underdog to win last weekend versus The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal), I am installing the sequel to Batman Begins as the betting favorite to win both the traditional three-day weekend and the Wednesday-through-Friday five-day frame — although it could be close.
Two new movies are opening Wednesday (Aug. 6) in the hopes of getting
a jump on the Friday night Opening Ceremonies of the Summer Olympic Games in Beijing.
NBC's prime time coverage over the next three weeks will smartly feature
many of the high profile swimming events, including those featuring
Michael Phelps, and lots of gymnastics coverage, with Shawn Johnson's pursuit of the
Women's All-Around medal, but the Olympics have begun to increasingly skew 25
Plus. Given that, both Sony and Warner Bros. have picked a good spot for
their respective releases.
Pineapple Express, Sony's R-rated stoner comedy, is aimed at Males Under 25, and The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2, a 'tween- and teen-targeted chick flick from Warner Bros., is reaching for Females Under 25. I do not believe, however, that the pageantry of the Opening Ceremonies, including a celebration of the history of Chinese culture, will do much to dampen the box office performance of these two new releases.
The Judd Apatow-produced Pineapple Express looks very solid in industry tracking, especially with the big money young male demo, and this marijuana-fueled comedy has an outside chance to upset The Dark Knight, or at least get pulled over for breaking the weed limit. Both movies are likely to finish in the same range with a traditional three-day of $24 million-$29 million and a Wednesday-through-Friday five-day of $35 million-$40 million. Ultimately, I suspect that the Caped Crusader will defeat the Seth Rogen/James Franco tokefest/jokefest, but Express will be a strong No. 2.
The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 is the probable third-place finisher for the weekend. The 2005 original opened on a Wednesday and managed a three-day haul of $9.83 million and a Wednesday-through-Sunday take of $13.57 million. The modestly-budgeted, goodhearted "girl power" movie went on to $39 million domestic. This sequel will enjoy a big step up at the box office.
With America Ferrera now a star thanks to Ugly Betty, Blake Lively having heated up with Gossip Girl, and Alexis Bledel and Amber Tamblyn (who were already TV hotties when the first Pants showed up) returning, Pants 2 seems destined to break $20 million for the five-day with a fnal number in the $19 million-$22 million range. The three-day weekend should be $13 million-$16 million.
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) will suffer a severe drop with a $13 million-$16 million Friday-thru-Sunday take and something near $20 million for the five-day frame. Tomb of the Dragon Emperor fell apart on Monday, with just $4.24 million, and that suggests at least a 65 percent slide from the film's $44.7 million three-day opening.
FINAL THREE-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR AUG. 8-10
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $28 million
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $25 million
3. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.) — $15.5 million
4. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $14.75 million
5. Step Brothers (Sony) — $8.5 million
6. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $7.5 million
7. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $4.5 million
8. Swing Vote (Disney) — $3.7 million
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $2.9 million
10. Hancock (Sony) — $2.7 million
FINAL FIVE-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR AUG. 6-10
1. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $37.6 million
2. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $35 million
3. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (Warner Bros.) — $21.5 million
4. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $21 million
5. Step Brothers (Sony) — $11.6 million
6. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $11.2 million
7. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $6.65 million
8. Swing Vote (Disney) — $5.2 million
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $4.3 million
10. Hancock (Sony) — $3.8 million
Good call Mason - Mummy is going to tank this weekend.
Posted by: Lester Hayes | August 05, 2008 at 11:22 PM
is the mummy really that bad? Has anyone seen it?
It's too bad because Swing vote is really good.
Posted by: jake | August 06, 2008 at 08:47 AM
Opening ceremonies will likely crush Mummy 3's take. Any Jet Li / Chinese culture buffs that might have cared about the Dragon Emperor of China will be watching the olympics. I don't know anyone who plans on watching the opening and all of my friends are in the 24-29 age range, so I think that the summer games are even more irrelevent this year.
I will watch the 2010s in Vancouver, but by then I'll be nearly 30 and this type of thing will be more targeted to my age range. :-)
Posted by: Brett | August 06, 2008 at 09:50 AM
for once i guess you might be right Mason !
Batman is still legging its way throught the box office.
Posted by: seb88 | August 06, 2008 at 12:28 PM
...at least get pulled over for breaking the weed limit.
Come on, Steve!
Posted by: tyson | August 06, 2008 at 01:45 PM
Went to Sisterhood today with a female friend and we both enjoyed it, she(26)raved about it. The crowd applauded at the end and the theater was packed(wed 4pm showing) mostly mid twenties to early thirties females but a few mothers and daughters thrown in.
I agree, looks like a step up from last movie, and the reviews, from the target audience, should be good to great.
Posted by: craig | August 06, 2008 at 07:46 PM
Batman and Pineapple were pretty close today at my theater, but I think Pineapple won out after the matinee shows were over. Sisterhood did very well too, even during the late show, playing at well over 60% capacity all day and nearly selling out at two showings. If the bad weather on the east coast continues throughout the weekend, expect all of the above numbers to rise a few pegs.
Posted by: Squirrel | August 06, 2008 at 09:13 PM
I think people overestimate the long term ability of the 18-25 male crowd, as it's also one of the poorest demographics. I think Pineapple Express will do 60-80 million total at the box office, but will have a great return on DVD where teens have a greater chance of purchasing/renting it.
Posted by: Univarn | August 07, 2008 at 05:55 AM
Deadlinehollywood is reporting a $10 million wednesday for PE. looks like TDK reign at the top has come to an end
Posted by: A.B | August 07, 2008 at 08:34 AM
How much of that 10 mill was midnights? That will determine how big of a drop it will have on Thursday and Saturday. I would guess around 2-3 mill. So the drop could start at 9. With TDK's Friday and Saturday increases, it's going to be good show, but it's far from over.
Posted by: JackO | August 07, 2008 at 10:50 AM
Variety is reporting a 12.5 million opening for pineapple express and 5.8 for sisterhood and dark knight at 5.
Posted by: jake | August 07, 2008 at 11:03 AM
PE @ 12.5 mil for wednesday...
If it drops 50% today and gets 30 million over the 3-day, that's a 5-day of 50 million.
That's a lot of money, and with good word-of-mouth (I've already heard one positive review from someone whose tastes I trust, and will proably see it Saturday), it should have somewhat decent legs. That depends on Tropic Thunder, I geuss.
Posted by: Bentley | August 07, 2008 at 02:44 PM
I loved Mummy 3 (except for missing Rachel Weisz) but the theater was pretty empty so I can't argue with the prediction.
Posted by: David | August 07, 2008 at 03:43 PM
Gee..sus...Forget seeing the same fricking movies over and over again this weekend and take a chance on some recent decent new entries. I saw "Swing Vote" and "XFiles" and both are good films that deserve an audience. Certainly worth a look instead of seeing some fricking action movie for the tenth fricking time, IMHO.
Posted by: jdls08 | August 07, 2008 at 10:27 PM
The Dark Knight is more than "some fricking action movie".
Posted by: Steve | August 07, 2008 at 11:10 PM
No, to me it was just some action movie. It was brilliently acted, but the story was rambling (they setup the sequel... and then did the sequel!) the action sequences were alright (some great, some just there for the sake of another action sequence), but in the end they could have told a much better story without the extra half hour - 45 minutes.
Posted by: Brett | August 08, 2008 at 07:45 AM