FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Death Race' May Zoom to Narrow Win Over 'Tropic Thunder'; 'House Bunny' with Likely $8M-$10M; 'The Rocker' Not Ready to Roll with Just $9M-$11M for 5 Days!
by Steve Mason
Steve Mason is now on Facebook.
There are four new wide releases this week, but only of them is likely to top $10 million for the traditional 3-day weekend. The Jason Statham vehicle Death Race (Universal) seems to be getting some traction in industry tracking, although a huge breakout opening is unlikely. Instead, the Paul W.S. Anderson-directed action pic will likely open with $13 million-$16 million. I suspect this movie, also starring Oscar nominee Joan Allen (The Contender) and Golden Gobe winner Ian McShane (Deadwood), will be enough to out-pace holdover Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount), which will probably dip 40 percent-45 percent from its opening weekend.
A fairly comprehensive reworking of 1975's Death Race 2000, which starred a pre-Rocky Sylvester Stallone, the new Death Race features Statham, who is increasingly becoming a solid bankable action star. If the new movie reaches my $16 million predicted opening, it would be his all-time fourth-best opening behind The Italian Job ($19.4 million), The One ($19.1 million) and Transporter 2 ($16.5 million).
The Ben Stiller-directed satire Tropic Thunder, which was clearly hurt by Michael Phelps and the first week of the Olympic Games on NBC, has a real chance to repeat as the weekend box office champ with something in the $13 million-$16 million range, but I am calling for $15 million, a tick behind Death Race. I still believe that Thunder is going to perform very well in coming weeks thanks to excellent reviews and positive word-of-mouth.
The Warner Bros megahit The Dark Knight should continue to hold extraordinarily well with a probable No. 3 finish. I am calling for a possible $9.75 million for the Friday-thru-Sunday period, which would likely push the total domestic cume for the Caped Crusader to something over $488 million.
The other wide releases are all likely to finish the three-day with disappointing results. The House Bunny (Sony), featuring the always-funny Anna Faris from the Scary Movie series, appears to be the strongest of the "also ran" titles in the marketplace. Lots of appeal with Females Under 25 could result in $6 million-$9 million, and my call is for $8.2 million and a fourth-place finish.
20th Century Fox's The Rocker, starring Rainn Wilson (Dwight Schrute on The Office), is trying to get a jump on the competition with a Wednesday opening, but this film is just not moving the needle. My sources tell me that industry tracking shows no buzz, low awareness, a poor Definite Interest score and a dismal First Choice. The result will be a possible three-day of $5 million-$8 million (my prediction is $6.2 million) and a potential five-day take of only $8 million-$11 million (my number is $9.3 million). If those numbers hold, The Rocker will be fifth for the weekend.
Meanwhile MGM/Weinstein's The Longshots, featuring Ice Cube (Are We There Yet?) will open very quietly with $4 million-$7 million and finish anywhere from No. 6 to No. 10. My call is for just over $5 million.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST 22
1. Death Race (Universal) — $16 million
2. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $15 million
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $9.75 million
4. The House Bunny (Sony) — $8.5 million
5. The Rocker (20th Century Fox) — $6.2 million
6. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — $6 million
7. The Longshots (MGM/Weinstein) — $5.25 million
8. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $5.1 million
9. Mirrors (20th Century Fox) — $5 million
10. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) — $3.7 million
I agree with your predictions, but I think HOUSE BUNNY will open at around $14M.
Posted by: Ryan | August 20, 2008 at 08:30 AM
This august is gonna be one of the worst augusts in film history
Posted by: salva | August 20, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I'd like to see how the box office performed during the Athens games in 2004. I would guess also very poorly. I'm thinking TT will perform better then expected as the Olympics wind down this weekend. I've personally held off on seeing anything during the games.
Posted by: Matt | August 20, 2008 at 01:13 PM
Now I know how right the title for a certain Sandler movie was. How could I *not* pick that one up when the June leagues began?
Anyway, here's hoping all of this week's newbies save my renamed studio and put me in my league's top 20.
Posted by: Dylan | August 20, 2008 at 04:36 PM
I think this will be a great movie, House Bunny that is! Im a big Katharine fan, and Im going to see the movie just for her. I mean seeing McPhee for hour and a half!! I met her before and shes hotter in person.
Posted by: onegoal | August 20, 2008 at 08:12 PM
At least someone out there is listening to what i'm saying or probably agreeing -- they are moving james bond to November 14th now instead of november 7.
I wish the house bunny was showing even more traction. It looks hilarious and seems poised to finally make anna faris a bonafide star.
I heard on Reelz channel -- the new cable channel for movies -- when they did their poll of people who thought of the rocker -- only 7 PEOPLE showed up for the entire theater on opening night -- does not bode well. and they didn't think it was that funny. although richard roeper said it was one of the funniest films of the year.
Posted by: jake | August 21, 2008 at 01:28 PM
I think the House Bunny will do better than that. I've seen the trailers for it a lot more than Death Race and it was heavily advertised during The Hills on Monday and also had an entire episode of The Girls Next Door about it at the same time
Posted by: Mike | August 21, 2008 at 02:07 PM
The numbers for The Rocker yesterday were dreadful. It was 10th on it's opening day! Yikes!I think your prediction is high for that one. I also believe that House Bunny will do a bit better than expected at around 11 million.
Posted by: Bill | August 21, 2008 at 05:01 PM
Up here in the frozen north, aka canada, people are still wholly in love with Dark Knight. Saw it in a packed IMAX theatre last night and the audience ooohed and aaahed all the way through and applauded at the end. I know we're just a blip on the map population wise, but I wouldn't be surprised if everybody runs off to see it one more time before school and hockey starts up in September.
Posted by: craig | August 21, 2008 at 06:03 PM
wow the rocker had a terrible wednesday. it didn't even make a million. this doesn't bode well
Posted by: Bob | August 21, 2008 at 07:54 PM
Intertops.com has a line up for The House Bunny.
Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: The House Bunny
Closing Date: Aug 22, 2008 14:00 GMT -4
Total Opening 3-Day Weekend Box Office: Friday August 22nd to Sunday, August 24th
U.S. & Canada box office sales only.
Option Win Odds
USD 10 Million to USD 14.5 Million +125
USD 14.5 Million to USD 18 Million +125
USD 18 Million or more +200
USD 10 Million or less +450
If Steve's tracking is right then 10 million or less for +450 is a HUGE pay day!!!!!
Posted by: Dan | August 22, 2008 at 08:20 AM
Looks like Intertops.com has box office lines up every Friday morning.
Posted by: Dan | August 22, 2008 at 08:22 AM
Matinees aren't looking great for Death Race. Probably more like $10MM, w/ House Bunny just behind it at $9ish.
Posted by: BO-genie | August 22, 2008 at 01:09 PM
Matinees most likely aren't looking good as many kids started school yesterday.
Posted by: Keyser Soze | August 22, 2008 at 01:31 PM
Mamma Mia will remain in the top ten this weekend... count on it.
Posted by: anomalys | August 22, 2008 at 04:19 PM
"I'd like to see how the box office performed during the Athens games in 2004."
You can find some of that on boxofficemojo.com. The Athens games were from August 13th to August 29th 2004 according to Wikipedia. The boxoffmojo.com page for the middle weekend is:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2004-08-20&p=.htm
and you can click on the calendar or change the date in the URL to see the box office for other days that month. And if you click on a name of a movie there you can select the Weekend tab and see how much the weekends around there were down for the movies that were out. From looking at the weekends for Spiderman 2 and The Bourne Supremacy I don't see any obvious drop from the Olympics.
--Darin
Posted by: Darin | August 22, 2008 at 04:27 PM
This same weekend last year we saw Jason S. come out with a nother movie, starring Jet Li next to him and it got beat out by Mr. Bean, what if we saw an upset win by The House Bunny.
Posted by: John | August 22, 2008 at 07:47 PM