Yet some October selections top the $30 mark. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor was a great August value for $17, but on the flip side, an October movie with only two eligible weeks in the season costs nearly twice as much! (For what it's worth, the pricing in August-October Box Office Moguls leagues is much more reasonable.) Since the good deals on August flicks have mostly passed, this week I'm examining October's offerings to determine whether there's anything worth shelling out for. I've got five picks that you should stay away from at all costs, but five others that might be worthwhile despite their somewhat extravagant price tags. True, many prices fall under the "outrageous October" category, but there are still a few picks with a good (or at least, decent) value despite inflated cost.

YIKES! (Avoid these flicks like The Accidental Husband has avoided theaters)

A controversial subject plus a controversial director in Oliver Stone could make for a very interesting film. While it's priced like a slate anchor, however, I definitely don't think that W (Oct. 17; $36) is a movie with slate-anchoring potential. For one, whether it's getting a limited release or a wide release is yet to be determined. If it's limited, then you'd essentially be paying $36 for a CHANCE at some PTA, and that's a big no-no. Granted, there are no limited releases scheduled for that weekend, but still, I'd never spend over $15 on a PTA pick. A wide release would mean competition with Max Payne, which isn't anything to be TOO scared of, but political films haven't performed very well over the past few years. Purportedly W is a mere biography, but there's bound to be at least some mention of the political escapades of George W. Bush. Assuredly many people will see the movie because they like Bush, and many will stay away because they despise him. A topic this polarized is great for debate, but it's bad for your slate, at least at that price. As an alternate choice, Tropic Thunder is much better — and much cheaper.

Another controversial subject and another high price tag means Religulous (Oct. 3; $24) is one to avoid. Personally, I think it'll be funny and perhaps poignant in some spots, even if it's downright rude in others ... but that doesn't mean I'm putting it on any of my slates. It may be a PTA champion in its opening weekend, but that's not worth $24, especially considering that, even with an expansion, box-office prospects are minimal. Fantasy Moguls projects a mere $10 million — so if you pick it, you'd better hope that it's a PTA monster. I think it COULD make more than that if it expands, but the surprise $128 million grabbed by Borat (also directed by Larry Charles) two years ago is far, far out of the question. The IMDb rating will probably be good, but not great, because a lot of people — I'm guessing those with deep religious beliefs — may be offended. It'll certainly be a thought-provoking movie, but could also be an infuriating one, and in either case, it's definitely not worth taking the risk.

Here's another unwritten rule that seems to work nine times out of 10: Movies about the War on Terror are not successful. Look at In the Valley of Elah ($6.8 million), Lions for Lambs ($14 million), Rendition ($9 million) Redacted ($65,087 in limited release despite being written and directed by Brian De Palma), Home of the Brave ($40,830 in limited release despting starring Samuel L. Jackson and Jessica Biel) and, most recently, Stop-Loss ($10 million). The Lucky Ones (Oct. 24; $17) will almost certainly follow that trend. It's not so much about war itself as the soliders' psyche upon returning home, but so were Stop-Loss, Home of the Brave and In the Valley of Elah, so that clearly isn't a huge factor. Kudos to Rachel McAdams for taking on a different (at least, different for her) role — we haven't really seen her in theaters since her 2005 trifecta of The Family Stone, Red Eye, and Wedding Crashers. Aside from that, though, I just have a feeling that nobody will be interested. A wide release would pit it against two sure-to-be stalwarts, High School Musical 3: Senior Year and Saw V, while a limited release would put it up against Changeling for PTA. That's a no-win scenario, either way you slice it, but even if it came out on another October weekend, The Lucky Ones still wouldn't be a winner.

Speaking of Changeling (Oct. 24; $29), that's my next pick to avoid. The same price as Tropic Thunder, for just two weeks of eligibility? No thank you! It'll grab some PTA the first weekend and expands wide on Oct. 31, but one week of box office gross is not even close to worth spending $29 on. It may perform well into November after the expansion, but with the end of October as the cutoff, $29 is highway robbery. Angelina Jolie reiterated with Wanted that she can headline a movie successfully. The price tag here, however, is just WAY. TOO. HIGH. (Have I said that enough?) The trio of Jolie, John Malkovich, and director Clint Eastwood is formidable — but it seems that the mere presence of those names has jacked up the price. (And honestly, I'd rather have John Malkovich in Burn After Reading.) Changeling carries a superb 7.9 IMDb rating as of yesterday, with over 400 votes, but you certainly shouldn't pick it up just for that. In fact, you shouldn't pick it up at all — wait a few weeks and reevaluate it when September leagues debut with a new set of prices.

Perhaps the worst October choice, largely because of the uncertainty around its release, is He's Just Not That Into You (Oct. 24; $16). Though neither Fantasy Moguls nor BoxOfficeMojo has yet to pick up on the change, IMDb now lists a release date of February 6, 2009. (That's a curious choice, because it would open against Matthew McConaughey's rom-com Ghosts of Girlfriends Past that weekend — wouldn't you want to AVOID competition?) I couldn't find the film's official website — apparently it doesn't have one — to confirm the change, and the New Line Cinema website still lists Oct. 24. If it gets moved, you definitely don't want to be stuck with this $16 baggage on your slate, especially if you hang on to it until there's nothing else to pick. Even if it stays in October, $16 for two weeks isn't exactly the best deal, despite the star power (Jennifer Aniston, Ben Affleck, Scarlett Johansson, Justin Long, Drew Barrymore) involved. Dump it now! Heck, even Star Wars: The Clone Wars at $18 will probably net you more. This is another one to re-evaluate in a future season, however — it has a lot of potential with the Valentine's Day crowd, and director Ken Kwapis's last effort, License to Wed, was a mid-sized hit ($43 million) even against the heavy hitters of Summer 2007.

MIGHT BE WORTH IT (Whoa, there, cowboy — I said MIGHT)

RocknRolla (listed as Oct. 31; $13) greatly benefits from a date change. The Warner Bros. website still lists Halloween, but news was recently reported about a move to Oct. 3, and according to the film site Dark Horizons, RocknRolla is now scheduled to, ahem, rock n' roll on October 8th. (Update: The official RocknRolla MySpace page says the film will open limited in the U.S. on Oct. 3 and go wide Oct. 31.) That would give it a good four weeks of eligibility and all of a sudden makes its Box Office price tag of $3 a fantastic value. Even $13 in Ultimate isn't too unreasonable. It could fizzle out like Shoot 'Em Up, but I don't think that'll be the case; it'll end up somewhere in between that and the gangbusters opening of Wanted. Director Guy Ritchie's films — namely Revolver and Swept Away ("That's the last time I ever direct a movie for the wife") — haven't always found success, but I'm optimistic RocknRolla can be another hit along the lines of Snatch ($30 million). The date change would also give it a one week head start, as action flicks go, on Max Payne. Not the surest pick, but might be worth a gamble. If the MySpace timetable is accurate, then, depending on the size of its initial release, it could turn out to be a PTA powerhouse.

The handheld camera style of filming makes Quarantine (Oct. 10; $5) comparable to Cloverfield, although a much better Fantasy Moguls pick. While Cloverfield was a cash cow, costing upwards of $40 in January leagues, this is on the other end of the spectrum in the bargain bin. The same mysterious, all-we-have-is-the-amateur-footage plot device is in order, only instead of a monster, this time it's a deadly disease reported by a news crew in, you guessed it, a quarantined building. I don't think the movie will be that great, but it's positioned well, just like 30 Days of Night ($39 million) was last year. It'll make a quick chunk of money, and hey, maybe the Saw fanbase will go if they need something to tide them over for two more weeks. Without the great viral marketing and the internet hype Cloverfield had, Quarantine won't make as much money, and with the competition it's up against, Top 5 points may be hard to come by. But, I do think Fantasy Moguls's $23 million projection is a smidge low — $30 million seems about right to me.

Though The Dark Knight had much more going for it than curiosity over Heath Ledger in one of his final roles, that was surely one aspect that helped turnout. To a lesser extent, I think the same thing may happen with Soul Men (Oct. 10; $9), featuring the late Bernie Mac and the late Isaac Hayes. Director Malcolm Lee's previous efforts include Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins and Undercover Brother, so you know this movie caters mostly to African-Americans, and, of course, the IMDb score will likely be undeservedly low. I do think, however, especially now, that the movie will make more than Fantasy Moguls's projection of $21 million. MGM/Dimension Films are handling the release, so there's always a danger that it could be pushed back, especially in light of recent events. And, as with Quarantine, Top 5 points may be hard to come by. But Lee affirms that the date remains the same, and he says he's re-editing the film slightly in order to honor Mac and Hayes. It could be a nice tribute, and, if you can counter the inevitably low IMDb score, a bit of a sleeper for your slate as well.

$20 may still be stretching it a little bit, but I do think Saw V (Oct. 24; $20) will continue the success the previous four installments have had around Halloween. Saw IV made $63 million last year, $50 million of that in the first two weeks. Even if it only makes $50-60 million total, Saw V should still be good for a solid $40 million in the first fortnight. These movies are extremely frontloaded; each of the past two films in the series has dropped over 55 percent in the second weekend. So, even though its earnings will get cut off by the end of the season, you'll get a large chunk of its stats in those first two weeks anyway. I'm not a fan of the series and, personally, I thought even two was too many, but I understand from a business standpoint why the sequels keep being greenlit. The movies are cheap to make and earn a pretty impressive profit even while still in theaters. The Saw V price tag isn't dirt cheap, but you can basically map out the production you'll get by looking at the previous four Saw films. It's a pretty sure thing, and that's why it's not precisely a bargain.

Disney doesn't miss. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Oct. 24; $37) will only confirm that. The cable TV phenomenon was so successful that Disney decided to release the third (and final, at least with this cast) installment to theaters so they can make even more money off it. And, boy, will they. HSM3 has a shot at the best October opening weekend ever, breaking the $48 million turned in by Scary Movie 3 in 2003. It'll beat Saw V, and may even take two weekends in a row — since, with RocknRolla potentially in motion, the only new release on Halloween is Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Now, $37 is a hefty chunk of change, but you may get $100 million and 10 Top 5 points out of two weeks, and that's not easily found anywhere else. Tropic Thunder COULD make that, but it might not and, either way, it'll take longer than two weeks. Through the rest of August and all of September, even most of October, there's really nothing else with $100 million potential. HSM3 is certainly expensive, but not so costly that it'll cripple you from taking quality picks with the rest of your funds.

That's all for this week! Next time I'll be scanning the entire August-October season for values in the $11-$24 price range — a tough task with Pineapple Express and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor already off the table. Until then, good luck!

"Mister Informative" is not a known alias of the Walt Disney Company film marekting department. I mean, we can see how you might think that, with all of the hard-core pimpin' that he does of their movies. He's a real dude, though, with real superpowers. Write to him at misterinformative@gmail.com.