ULTIMATE MOVIE MOGULS

Back in my January column on the Sundance Film Festival, I mentioned that Towelhead (Sept. 12; $13) might be one to watch for — and voila, here it is. It benefits from a release on a sparse weekend for small films; while four movies are scheduled to go wide, Towelhead is the lone limited release and will only debut in New York and Los Angeles. (IMDb lists a date of Sept. 26, which would dampen its PTA chances a tad, but the Warner Bros. website still shows Sept. 12.) Though there has been some controversy over the title — the Council on American Islamic Relations requested a change from the potentially-derogatory Towelhead back to the original Nothing is Private — I don't think that will have a negative effect on the film's performance. Writer and director Alan Ball is an Oscar-winner, having penned the screenplay for American Beauty, so there's no shortage of know-how behind the camera — nor in front of it, with Aaron Eckhart, Toni Collette and Mario Bello among the cast. Simply the fact that it deals with Arab-American relations might be a reason for audiences to think twice about going (too much like the news) and for you to think twice about spending $13 on it, but with Burn After Reading slated to open on more than 1,000 screens (and unavailable in the current season to boot), Towelhead could net you at least 5 PTA points. That's at least worth considering.

Keira Knightley specializes in period dramas, and The Duchess (Sept. 19; $11) is another to add to her list that includes Atonement and Pride and Prejudice. (Lately it seems period dramas are ALL she's been doing, and King Lear is next on her agenda, but hey, I'm not one to complain, having acted in Billy Budd, Macbeth and Jude the Obscure recently myself.) The stiffest competition for The  Duchess on the PTA front is Hounddog, but that is scheduled to open on 400 screens, too high for spectacular PTA numbers, and there are no other limited releases on the docket for the Sept. 19. For that reason, and because both Atonement and Pride and Prejudice raked in the PTA, I'd say a decent haul is in store here too. The projected $8 million in box office receipts may not even be too far out of the question, assuming a favorable run in limited release and an expansion to follow. By the way, who else thinks it would be super cool if Ralph Fiennes (who plays the Duke of Devonshire) legally changed his name to Voldemort?

Clark Gregg, who you've probably seen as an actor in one of his many supporting roles — most recently as Agent Phil Coulson from S.H.I.E.L.D, in Iron Man — is making his directorial debut with Choke (Sept. 26; $11). Choke should come home with a PTA win on opening weekend — especially given Fox Searchlight's penchant for strong PTA performers (the release, last September, of The Darjeeling Limited comes to mind). The source material is a novel by Chuck Palahniuk, who also wrote Fight Club, about a sex-addicted con man who pays his mother's hospital bills by playing on the sympathies of those who rescue him from choking to death (even though he's faking each time). Sounds darkly comedic, something like maybe American Psycho — and as far as awards go, it did win a special jury prize for best ensemble cast at Sundance. It's not quite as sure a choice as The Duchess, but for value and potential, it comes in a close second.

Blindness (Sept. 26; $13) is the only thing that might top Choke for PTA on the weekend of Sept. 26. The director is Fernando Mereilles, who also made City of God and The Constant Gardener. The potential is there for high PTA, especially given the "world in chaos" setting, which reminds me a bit of Children of Men. The only potential problem is that Box Office Mojo lists it as a wide release. (Personally, I'd rather see a sarcastic con man than an examination of community chaos where Julianne Moore is the only person who isn't blind. But that's just me.) Given that Miramax is distributing, Blindness might receive a purgatory/neither-here-nor-there release of between 1,000 and 1,500 screens, but it might also manage a small debut with a following expansion. Keep an eye (but not a blind one, mmkay?) on the screen count — if it opens limited, then Blindness could help you see a podium finish at the end of your league.

I can't help it. Every time I see the trailer for Nights in Rodanthe (Sept. 26; $13), I laugh when James Franco appears on screen. Not because of what he says, or even the premise of the movie as a whole, but rather because I imagine him sporting a dirty mullet and wearing a t-shirt with a shark eating a kitten, like in Pineapple Express. Then, I superimpose that image into the trailer, and, well, you can see the ridiculousness of the situation. Aside from that, however, I really do think Nights in Rodanthe is a solid mid-level pick. A second-place finish at the turnstiles (behind Eagle Eye) seems within reach, and the same audience that supported The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 will come out for this one as well. The fact that the movie is based on a book by Nicholas Sparks (The Notebook) helps matters, too. And, finally, Nights in Rodanthe reteams the successful duo of Richard Gere and Diane Lane from Unfaithful. Hopefully there are no snow globe assaults this time around.

With Saw V (Oct. 24; $20), you can look at the performance of the franchise's previous four installments and pretty much know what you're getting. A big opening weekend (although maybe not big enough to top High School Musical 3) followed by a pretty steep second-weekend drop means that, even though you're spending $20, you'll get the majority of the film's production in those first two weekends anyway. I do think that releasing the movie a week BEFORE Halloween might help cushion the drop in the second weekend, but after Halloween, interest for a horror flick like this dies off considerably. Still, the smash-and-grab biz of those first two weeks could be worth it for $20. Just be forewarned that since the second installment, grosses have gone steadily down: Saw II made $87 million, but Saw III came in a tick lower at $80 million, and Saw IV managed only $63 million. Saw V could have a lower ceiling still, but $40 million before the end of October is still a distinct possibility.

BOX OFFICE MOGULS

I like Sam Jackson as much as the next guy, but if I had to pick just one more of his 2008 movies to see, Lakeview Terrace (Sept. 19; $12) wouldn't be it. I'd choose The Spirit. Even so, Screen Gems is the unofficial home of not-so-great-movies-that-do-more-business-than-you'd-expect, and Lakeview Terrace could very well be another one of those, much like Prom Night was back in April. It's not quite a straight-up scarefest, but more like a thriller. Still, I think the under-18 set will drive this one almost as if it were a teen horror movie. It might win the weekend, but also might not — at this point, it seems like a toss-up to me. Fantasy Moguls projects $35 million for the total run, but I think it could scrape over $40 million. It's not going to be a breakaway hit, but then again, nothing in September ever really is. I'm guessing the plot will be solvable pretty quickly, and even the twist, if there is one, won't be all that surprising. But heck, at least it'll be better than director Neil LaBute's last film, The Wicker Man, right? I mean, that's not exactly a tall order ...

Come September, Dane Cook will add My Best Friend's Girl (Sept. 19; $11) to his fall comedy resume, which also includes Good Luck Chuck, Employee of the Month and Dan in Real Life. (Bonus points for involving Alec Baldwin this time around; he's a much funnier guy than Dan Fogler or Dax Shepard.) Chuck and Employee each made around $30 million, so I expect similar performance ($35 million-$40 million) from My Best Friend's Girl, retread though it may be. Plus, romantic comedies like this are Kate Hudson's forte, although this is a rare foray into R-rated territory, at least for her. (But I definitely approve. See, you know that thing Indie Jones has with Gong Li? It's like that with me and Kate.) My Best Friend's Girl will duke it out with Lakeview Terrace for the weekend win; each, I think, will pull down around $15 million. The legs probably won't be that strong for Cook, Hudson and company, but it'll make just about the same as Lakeview Terrace — and requires a slightly smaller investment up front.

There are two reasons Eagle Eye (Sept. 26; $12) will be a breakout hit. One is the fact that Steven Spielberg is producing, and he rarely puts his name on any subpar product. The other is the presence of Shia LaBeouf, who is, to quote Will Ferrell as Mugatu, "so hot right now." The film was pushed from its original August date to September, but that shouldn't have any negative effect on its grosses. The highest-ever September opening weekend belongs to Sweet Home Alabama, at $35 million; Eagle Eye could challenge that. Fantasy Moguls predicts $35 million total; that's too low. Double it — heck, maybe even triple it. Disturbia made $80 million starting in April, a similarly dead time frame, and LaBeouf's stardom has only grown since then. Another potential hook for audiences is the rumor that the first Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen teaser will be attached. If nothing else, that rumor speaks to DreamWorks's belief that Eagle Eye will be bigger than anything else September has to offer.

Even Disney's bad movies make good money. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Oct. 3; $11) will follow in the footsteps of The Game Plan, The Pacifier and The Shaggy Dog; while the trailer might make us shake our heads, family audiences will still show up. Let's just hope they don't call it Beverly Hills Chinchilla, like I heard someone mispronounce it the other day. Or Beverly Hills Chimichanga, which, I kid you not, I've also heard. (Maybe they can make a whole franchise and cross-market with Taco Bell. Beverly Hills Chalupa, anyone?) Up until November, the fall season is a pretty barren time for family-friendly movies; that's why Disney has this positioned well in early fall. Igor will be but a blip on the radar, and, of course, after Chihuahua comes out, there's nothing else for kids and families for another three weeks. (And even then, it's still Disney who'll be bringin' 'em in, with High School Musical 3.) Fantasy Moguls predicts $33 million; I say it can top $50 million and may even scrape together $60 million.

Last year Ridley Scott had both a critical and commercial success in American Gangster; this year he's back for another go-round with Body of Lies (Oct. 10; $22). Scott's movies aren't always guaranteed moneymakers (I'm looking at you, A Good Year and Kingdom of Heaven), but this one looks to have the goods. Russell Crowe is a plus, and Leonardo DiCaprio is back on screen for the first time since his Blood Diamond/The Departed double feature two years ago. Speaking of The Departed, Warner Bros. has positioned Body of Lies in a very similar early October time slot; maybe they're hoping to replicate the commercial success. The Departed made $132 million and American Gangster brought in $130 million; I'd say Body of Lies has another $100 million or $120 million in it. Fantasy Moguls projects a mere $70 million, but even that would be miles ahead of anything else (apart from Eagle Eye) in the $11-$24 range.

Max Payne (Oct. 17; $11) reminds me a lot of 20th Century Fox's video game adaptation from last fall, Hitman. If anything, I think it has a bit more potential — the game is pretty popular, and I daresay that Mark Wahlberg is more recognizable and perhaps more marketable than Timothy Olyphant. Max Payne also benefits from sparse competition, going up against only Oliver Stone's W, which might be a limited release, and Flash of Genius, which looks interesting but not spectacular. I'm usually not a fan of video game adaptations, and actually, I've never played the Max Payne game, but this one's different — the exception to the rule, if you will. It's only the second video game adaptation I've ever thought looked passable — the coolest shot in the trailer is the snow flying off the gun barrel from the recoil of the shot. Hitman made $39 million, and I think Max Payne can cross the $40 million mark, maybe even topping $50 million, and the majority of that will be made in the first three weeks.

That's all for this Tip of the Week; next time I'll break down each September weekend and give you the studs (or at least the movies that will suck the least), duds and wild cards of the month. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative is bummed out by the prevailing suspicion about Kate Hudson, which is that she will probably never make another movie as good as Almost Famous. She peaked early. Do you agree or disagree? File a "friend of the court" brief at misterinformative@gmail.com.