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September 09, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: 'Eagle' is Golden Goose but Other Sept. 19 Wides Could Lay a Different Kind of Egg

by Shrykespeare

Greetings one and all, and welcome once again to Bard's Eye View. Instead of my usual repartee, I would like to take this opportunity to hand it to the Powers That Be at Fantasy Moguls, who really went above and beyond in preparing the just-started September-to-November leagues. Imagine my surprise when I clicked on the "Add/Drop Movies" link only to find that I had a whopping 74 films to choose from in the Ultimate Leagues (and an even heftier 76 in Box Office). Despite the lackadaisical way September has started off at the ticket counters, this could very well go down as the most difficult, most strategic league in Fantasy Moguls's short history.

Whereas Indie Jones and I have had precious little to talk about in the last month, a whole new bevy of films has been opened up to us, many of which are completely unfamiliar to even me. I relish the challenge ... and what better way to bring the first year of Super Leagues to a close? (More on that later.) (Note: according to ComingSoon.net, there have been two more date changes in the last week. The Robert De Niro limited-release film What Just Happened has been pushed to Oct. 17, and the very-limited-release Breakfast With Scot has been pulled from its slot and not given a new one.)

I've got four new films to talk about today, all coming out on the final Friday in September. I just have to start with Eagle Eye, which looks to be not only one of the coolest movies of the month, but one of the best picks as well. It stars Shia LaBeouf, who is arguably the hottest under-25 actor in Hollywood right now, having scored $300 million in back-to-back summer films, Transformers and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. It is not often that a film can find success in the frozen wasteland of April, but Shia pulled it off with Disturbia, a thriller that raked in over $80 million in spring of last year. Now he reteams with that film's director, D.J. Caruso, for another go at finding success in a less-than-stellar month.

In Eagle Eye, Shia plays a young slacker named Jerry, who is shocked when he comes home one night to find his apartment full of weapons, dangerous weapons-grade chemicals and foreign passports with his face on them. He is arrested almost immediately thereafter and interrogated by Agent Morgan (Billy Bob Thornton), who doesn't believe Jerry's rather ludicrous story that he's being set up. Of course, all through this time period Jerry receives instructions on his cell from a mysterious woman who directs him to jump through the hoops that she sets, or else suffer the consequences. Jerry later hooks up with Rachel (Michelle Monaghan), a woman in apparently the same predicament as he. Rosario Dawson and William Sadler also co-star.

There's nothing like a good fast-paced adrenaline-rush film to brighten an otherwise dull month, and Eagle Eye is well positioned to do just that in this very drab-looking September. It looks tense, explosive and exciting, just like Disturbia did (only with more action and less claustrophobic drama), and the Caruso/LaBeouf tag-team is a potent combination that simply cannot be ignored.

Fantasy Moguls predicts only five Top 5 points, two PTA, a User Rating of 6.2 and a paltry $35 million in total receipts, which is why they have attached the rather miniscule price tag of $9 to it in the September leagues ($12 in Box Office), to which I say ... pshaw. This film will easily win its opening weekend; it may even challenge Sweet Home Alabama for the largest September opening ever ($35.6 million on this exact weekend in 2002). But even if it falls just short of that mark, this is a film that you simply cannot do without. I predict nine or 10 Top 5, four PTA, a rating closer to 7.0 and at LEAST $70 million in total take. In a league of uncertain times and high-priced unknowns, this is the biggest must-have on the entire docket.

It's been two years since Spike Lee wowed audiences with the well-written heist drama Inside Man, which teamed up three A-list actors (Denzel Washington, Jodie Foster, Clive Owen) for a very entertaining story. And while I find it refreshing that a sequel is already in the works (slated for a 2010 release), in the meantime Lee is bringing us Miracle at St. Anna, an intriguing-looking drama that seems to put the focus more on the story than the cast, given that there are no real huge names in the lead roles.

In 1983, a postal worker named Hector Negron (Laz Alonso) shoots and kills a customer, without apparent provocation. When the police, however, find a very valuable artifact — the head of a priceless statue — in his apartment, it triggers an investigation into a series of events that occurred in World War II Italy, when Negron and three of his fellow platoon-members (all African-Americans) became trapped in a small Tuscan village.

As I said, Miracle doesn't have the star power that Inside Man did, but that doesn't mean there are no recognizable names: Derek Luke, Kerry Washington, John Leguizamo, John Turturro and Joseph Gordon-Levitt. I am almost delighted to say that the trailer and the one-sheet give almost nothing away about the nature of the "miracle" alluded to in the title, though it does seem to center around a young Italian boy.

Lee is known for doing quality work. Even Inside Man, widely considered to be the most commercial film of his illustrious career, merited a 7.6 User Rating. It will undoubtedly be his name, and his name alone, that carries this film. It's coming out rather too early for serious Oscar consideration, and I seriously doubt that Miracle will do business approaching anywhere near Inside Man's $88 million. Fantasy Moguls predicts $55 million, and frankly, that sounds just about right to me. For $12 in Ultimate, this could be a pretty shrewd pick ... if it gets a decent release platform, it will bring you decent stats in all four categories. It's significantly riskier than Eagle Eye, to be sure, but it may be well worth it. (I'd forego spending $19 on it in Box Office, however.)

Up next we have Nights in Rodanthe, starring ageless romantic-drama veterans Richard Gere and Diane Lane, who are teaming up for the third time (after The Cotton Club and Unfaithful). Brought to us by Warner Bros. and director George C. Wolfe (Lackawanna Blues), Rodanthe features Gere as Dr. Paul Flanner, a doctor who has decided that, after decades of making his career his No. 1 priority, the time has come to mend fences with his estranged son (James Franco). He travels to a beachside inn in North Carolina, where he meets Adrienne (Lane), a woman currently estranged from her own husband (Christopher Meloni of Law & Order: SVU).

There is no doubt in my mind that Gere (now 59) and Lane (now 43) are still very popular to more mature moviegoers, and the on-screen chemistry that they possess has been well-tested. Add to that a supporting cast that includes Franco, Meloni, Scott Glenn and Viola Davis, not to mention the fact that the screenplay was based on the bestselling novel by Nicholas Sparks (who also wrote Message in a Bottle, A Walk to Remember and The Notebook), and I foretell a whole heap of Kleenex being used in theaters.

Rodanthe will probably battle Miracle at St. Anna for the No. 2 spot behind Eagle Eye on opening weekend. Again, be sure to watch the theater count. It's priced at a very similar $11, but this is a genre that tends to have long legs. If the film is well-reviewed and not too sappy, it could be a good stat-producer for your roster. $16 is a tougher sell in Box Office, because it would take considerably more than the $46 million that Fantasy Moguls has projected for it make it worth it, especially when you can pick up Disney's Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Righteous Kill for only $3 more.

At this time, I am not sure whether The Lucky Ones will open as a limited release or a wide one. I have yet to see any trailer for it shown in theaters, nor any posters or commercials for it. Fantasy Moguls seems to think that it will open small, given that they have it pegged for 4 PTA points and only $7 million in total earnings. It costs, what do you know, $11 in the September Ultimate leagues and only $2 in Box Office, which is interesting, given that both ComingSoon and IMDb have it slated for a larger release. My guess is that it will open somewhere in the 1,500-theater range, and you know what that means ... no PTA, very few dollars earned.

Which is a pity, because the story looks pretty good: three soldiers, played by Tim Robbins, Rachel McAdams and Michael Pena, return home from Iraq, and end up bonding with each other as they embark on a cross-country road trip that serves to heal their physical and spiritual wounds, while each of them tries to rebuild their familial ties. What makes me even more interested is the fact that it was directed by Neil Burger, whose last project, The Illusionist, was one of my favorite films of 2006.

Don't get me wrong: I like Robbins (who will quickly return to theaters in City of Ember), and I like McAdams. This story seems to be a bit too close, however, to that of Stop-Loss, the MTV Pictures film that tanked a few months ago. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Films dealing with the  war on terror in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere in the Middle East, no matter how well-written, well-acted or well-intentioned, do NOT do well in theaters. One need look no further than the barely-acknowledged Traitor for proof of that. I would definitely pass on this one in Ultimate. It may be a good 8th pick in Box Office, but only just.

Props Department: Congratulations to MrHam for his dual wins in Round Six of the Ultimate Full-Year Super Leagues and the June Regulars League His Name is Dr. Jones. Well done, sir! Congratulations also go to dsummer, annyonngob888 and Tonberry3001 for their Super League victories as well. And I must mention my buddy A_Roode, as well, who stomped all competition in the just completed Box Office league Wolf at the Door. Way to go, everyone!

Well, that will wrap it up for me for yet another week. Please return next week, when I will be unwrapping the month of October for you, with four more films scheduled for release on Oct. 3: Walt Disney Pictures brings us their latest fun-for-the-whole-family film, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, which I pray to God is better than it looks; Michael Cera and Kat Dennings play the titular roles in Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist, as two youngsters who connect romantically under interesting circumstances; Simon Pegg returns to the big screen in How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, as a journalist who takes a job with a high-profile New York magazine, only to discover that it's not QUITE as he imagined it would be; and Flash of Genius, a true story about Robert Kearns (played by Greg Kinnear), a man who took on the automotive industry when he discovered that they had stolen one of his patents.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare and Mister Informative are the charter members of the Shia "Mini-Bourne" LaBeouf Techno-Thriller Fan Club. Applications for membership can be sent to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Posted at 06:39 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

The Lucky Ones is opening limited. Expect about 50-100 theatres on opening weekend as Lionsgate is going the "select markets" route on this one and will be using the Roadside Attractions label on it. The same thing occurred last year on the long-on-the-shelf Kevin Kline film Trade and it bombed. Expect the same with this one.

Posted by: Buscemi | September 09, 2008 at 10:33 AM

I wonder where Christopher Meloni is planning to take his career... From solving sex cases to a made for Nickelodeon movie to a Gere/Lane romance, he's all over the map.

Posted by: W | September 09, 2008 at 02:19 PM

Don't forget Meloni playing a Klansman in Harold and Kumar! Haha.

Posted by: dranscht | September 09, 2008 at 04:14 PM

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