October is one of those weird months: We've left the summer well behind, and we're not quite to the powerhouses of winter yet. But neither is it September, where the numbers are down across the board and the fare to be found is, on average ... below average. If I had to compare October to another month of the year, I suppose it would have to be March; interest is picking up again, the climate is more temperate, and you just might have a surprise blockbuster in there somewhere. So what might be this October's blockbuster? Read on.

Peter Berg couldn't do it. Paul Haggis couldn't do it. Neither could Gavin Hood, Kimberly Peirce, or even Robert Redford. Not one director has been able to take a story related to the Middle East, the War on Terror or the soldiers who fight it and turn it into a bona fide box office success. Despite the fact that some of Hollywood's biggest actors have thrown themselves into the genre, the American moviegoing public have steadfastly refused to flock in large numbers to see a film related to this emotional and politically-charged subject.

So now, after so many failures, can the great Ridley Scott do what the others haven't? Can the three-time Academy Award nominee for Best Director, who has found enormous success with landmark films such as Alien, Blade Runner, Black Hawk Down, Gladiator and last year's outstanding American Gangster break through the $100 million barrier? I'm of the opinion that, if any director can do it, Scott is the one ... which makes Body of Lies a film to keep your eye on.

Based on the best-selling book David Ignatius, Body of Lies teams Scott with A-list actor Russell Crowe for the fourth time (after Gladiator, Gangster and A Good Year; Team Up No. 5, the revisionist Robin Hood period piece Nottingham, is in pre-pro). Sharing top billing with Crowe is Leonardo DiCaprio, who has truly blossomed into an outstanding actor after a five-year creative doldrums when it seemed unlikely he would ever escape his Titanic stereotype. (Side note: The last time these two actors appeared in a film together was 13 years ago in The Quick and the Dead, the clichéd-but-entertaining oater starring Sharon Stone and Gene Hackman. It's especially interesting in retrospect, since neither actor was a known commodity at the time.)

In Body of Lies, DiCaprio plays a CIA operative named Roger Ferris, who is working undercover in Jordan trying to flush out a high-ranking Al-Qaeda terrorist. He gets his orders from one Ed Hoffman (Crowe), orders that are tough for Ferris to comprehend when it seems that Hoffman has many different agendas. The trailer isn't exactly forthcoming about the plot, as it is merely a platform to showcase the names of the stars, names that surely everyone recognizes.

More good news: The script for this film was written by William Monahan, who penned the screenplay for the Oscar-winning crime drama The Departed in 2006. Of course, he also wrote Kingdom of Heaven in 2005, which is among Scott's biggest flops of all time, so temper your enthusiasm. Despite the subject matter, it's hard, if not impossible, to imagine that Body of Lies will not win its opening weekend handily. Will the opening have enough oomph for the film to eventually crack $100 million? That remains to be seen.

Fantasy Moguls thinks it will only pull in $70 million, along with five PTA, seven Top 5 and a rating of 7.1. I believe it has the potential, barring a rash of scathing reviews, to do better even than that, but $100 million is a stretch. I will say that for $16 in Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, you'd be a fool to pass this one up. This isn't Righteous Kill we're talking about here. (At least, it better not be.) $25 in Box Office Moguls is a tough sell ... pay close attention to the theater counts and early reviews to make sure you're getting the most for your money.

Sigh. Another month, another uplifting based-on-true-events sports movie. Okay, that came across as a little harsh, but really, how many of these stories can we see before they all start to blur together? In the last few years, how many have their been? Without even bother to check the nearest database, I remember watching Coach Carter, Invincible, We Are Marshall, Gridiron Gang and Glory Road.

Now, I'm not saying that there is no audience for the pigskin-and-pride sentiments of The Express — though you may have noticed that three of the films I just mentioned have football themes — but I have to wonder just how much uplift one filmgoer can take before the feelings these movies are supposed to engender become clichés unto themselves. For anyone who hasn't yet reached that point, this one is the true story of Ernie Davis, the college football superstar who became the first African-American to win the Heisman Trophy, during the racially-charged era of the early 1960s, before having his career cut short by leukemia.

Davis's background, as you can imagine, is typical of your Hollywood/true life underdog story: He had a poverty-stricken upbringing, overcame seemingly insurmountable obstacles, and eventually become one of the greatest running backs in collegiate history while playing for Coach Ben Schwartzwalder (played here by Dennis Quaid) and the Syracuse Orangemen. Naturally, there were those who said that it shouldn't/couldn't happen, much much as was said of Jackie Robinson, or the Texas Western basketball team.

Director Gary Fleder (Runaway Jury, Kiss the Girls) is a decent director, and Quaid is a marketable enough actor, I suppose. Davis himself is portrayed by actor Rob Brown (who, ironically, also starred in Glory Road). Unfortunately, I just can't envisage how this film will make itself stand out from the rest. Poverty, effort, perseverance, tragedy, triumph. Nothing we haven't seen many times before. For $10 in the Ultimate leagues, I have to think there are better options, given the lukewarm reception The Express is likely to get. You're better off gambling on titles like Max Payne or Saw V, whose prospects may be slightly rosier. And as for $14 in Box Office? Forget it.

I saw a teaser for City of Ember about six months ago, and I was instantly intrigued. One reason for this was the storyline: A vast underground city has existed for decades, completely untouched by life here in the surface, whose denizens depend on a huge generator for their power needs. Unfortunately, the generator is failing, which spells cataclysm unless a contingency plan is reached. The Mayor of Ember (played by eclectic actor Bill Murray) refuses to acknowledge the catastrophe, so it falls to two children named Doon (Harry Treadaway) and Lina (Atonement star Saoirse Ronan) to try to find an escape route without being discovered. Tim Robbins and Martin Landau also costar.

Based on the bestselling book by Jeanne Duprau, Ember may look on its surface to be nothing more than a children's action/fantasy film, with a few light scares and some tense drama. And that may very well be the case. I know a couple of people who have read the book, however, and they tell me that the even though the plot is a little thin at time, it contains some very interesting ideas. I really like the cast, too: Bill Murray has a tendency not to take roles in non-comedies unless there is something to them; Ronan, at only 14 years old, has already established herself as an up-and-coming actress; and, well, I'll watch Tim Robbins in just about anything. (Shawshank junkie, you see.)

I will definitely be seeing this film on its opening weekend. The question is, just how many people across America will be joining me? Going head-to-head with Ridley Scott, it won't come in any higher than No. 2 on its opening weekend. It may hang around for one more week in the Top 5, but that's it. It may pull in a few PTA as well, and I venture that a User Rating of 7.0 or higher is not too big a stretch. I think that when $55 million is a reasonable estimate for City of Ember in the long run, which makes it a very solid pick for only $10 in the Ultimate leagues. $16 in Box Office is a little more tenuous, but still doable if its theater count is up close to 3,000 (or more).

Given that Halloween occurs yearly at the end of October, you kind of have to expect a few horror movies to appear in theaters, and lo, there are three notable titles coming out on or before the scariest holiday of the year. The first to spring out of the pre-holiday closet is Quarantine, brought to us by the now-infamous Screen Gems production company. The one that, ever since distributing The Cave, has put forth almost nothing that anyone would consider quality: Underworld: Evolution, The Covenant, Vacancy and Hostel 2. (Lakeview Terrace has been praised by some critics and scored a strong opening, so there's that.)

Quarantine, judging from its trailer, seems to be stealing a page from the playbook for Cloverfield, given that much of the movie appears to have been shot using a hand-held camera. Now, whether this vantage point will serve to help or hinder the story is as yet unknown. The movie, also like Cloverfield, has no real "stars" in its cast, which is made up of Jennifer Carpenter (Dexter), Dania Ramirez (Heroes), Steve Harris (The Practice), and Jay Hernandez (Hostel, Lakeview Terrace, TV's Six Degrees). Hmm ... a lot of small-screen names there.

The plot: A news crew decides to do a story wherein they follow a group of fireman around for a day. They are dispatched to an unknown emergency at a Los Angeles apartment complex, and they enter, along with a few uniformed police officers. They are shocked to discover that one of the tenants seems to have been struck by some sort of mutative disease, but are even more surprised when they find that the government has barricaded them all inside the complex and won't let anyone out. And as they try to find an escape route or somehow make contact with the outside world, the danger grows from within.

That does sound rather spooky, actually. Many readers may not know that this film is a remake of a Spanish horror flick from last year called [Rec], said to be far superior to this one but never released in the U.S. Probably so Quarantine could be rushed to theaters instead. I suppose that a few horror enthusiasts will happily give this film a look, but I don't hold out much hope for its chances. It's priced at a rock-bottom $2 in Ultimate leagues; Fantasy Moguls predicts $23 million, one Top 5 point and a meager 4.9 User Rating. It may indeed surprise and do better, but I doubt it.

The unfortunate thing is, there are woefully few $2 and $3 films on the September-November table, despite the increased number of picks, so if you have no other moves to make, good luck. If you still have room to maneuver, however, I'd consider switching this and a more expensive pick for two mid-range ones. And $8 in Box Office? Uh-uh.

Well, that will do it for me for yet another week. Please return next week, when I will be talking about films scheduled for release on Oct. 17: Acclaimed director and notable conspiracy theorist Oliver Stone brings us his first feature since World Trade Center with W., an in-depth look at the life and early career of our soon-to-be-replaced President, George W. Bush, starring Josh Brolin in the title role. Mark Wahlberg aims to erase the stain left by M. Night Shyamalan with Max Payne, the latest film to be adapted from a best-selling video game. And finally, there's teen comedy Sex Drive, in which a high school senior decides to take his two best friends and his brother's "borrowed" car on a road trip to meet a chick that he hooked up with online.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare once got sealed up inside a tenement house with something creepy that appeared to have a mysterious and horrifying agenda, but it turned out to just be Indie Jones. Recall your own near misses to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.