WEEKEND ESTIMATES: LaBeouf Flies Like an 'Eagle' to $29.2M Opening; Gere's 'Nights' Strong with $13.6M; 'Fireproof' Surprises at No. 4 with $6.5M; No Miracle for Spike's 'St. Anna' w/$3.5M; 'Duchess' and 'Appaloosa' 1-2 in PTA Race!
by Steve Mason
Steve Mason is now on Facebook.
SUNDAY 9:30 a.m. (Pacific): Shia LaBeouf is lucky and good. He's become a budding superstar with the help of $300 million blockbusters Transformers and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull but his career has been on the make for a while. He grew up in the business gaining traction in the Disney Channel series Even Stevens and ramped up his career with roles in the family film Holes ($16.3 million opening, $67.4 million cume) and the critically-acclaimed indies A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints and Bobby. Then he demonstrated his real appeal in last year's commercial breakthrough Disturbia, directed by D.J. Caruso. Now his reteaming with Caruso, Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) has scored even bigger.
The new high-tech thriller got a huge Saturday boost of almost 26 percent, and DreamWorks now estimates a $29.2 million three-day.That is stronger than the $28 million I predicted on Thursday, and it marks the biggest opening for any Hollywood movie since Tropic Thunder bowed to $25.8 million on Aug. 15. It now seems very possible that Friday night's Presidential debate depressed this movie's opening day performance. Under 25s showed high anticipation for Eagle Eye in prerelease industry tracking, and they were always going to see it this weekend, but many of them may have elected to watch Obama vs. McCain on Friday and then poured into theaters on Saturday.
Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.), based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, hit the high-end of industry expectations for a No. 2 finish with $13.57 million, according to studio estimates. That is just a tick lower than the last teaming of Richard Gere and Diane Lane in Adrian Lyne's Unfaithful, which opened to $14 million. Last weekend's champ, Sony's racially charged bad-guy-with-a-badge thriller Lakeview Terrace, fell to No. 3 with an estimated $7 million, down about 53 percent from opening weekend. That pushes Terrace to a new cume of $25.7 million.
It's not every weekend that a church, for all intents and purposes, gets a movie into the Top 5, but Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn), starring Kirk Cameron, is a surprise No. 4 with about $6.5 million. This is a huge number for 839 locations, translating to $7,764 per theatre. Cameron rose to fame as Mike Seaver on ABC's Growing Pains in the late 1980s, and he became a vocal evangelical Christian in 1990. The movie is the latest from Sherwood Pictures, a nonprofit ministry of Sherwood Baptist Church in Albany, Ga. The company previously released the 2006 Christian-themed movie Facing the Giants ($1.34 million opening, $10.17 million cume), so they are building a track record and have obviously tapped into the Christian market in a big way.
It's another week in the top for for the Coen Brothers as Burn After Reading (Focus) added $6.16 million for a new cume of $45.5 million. The goofy spy thriller with an all-star cast will pass O Brother, Where Art Thou? on Monday to become the all-time second-biggest grossing movie from Joel and Ethan, trailing only No Country for Old Men ($74.2 million).
Spike Lee's Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) was a major disappointment grabbing just $3.5 million at 1,150 or so locations. The film's reviews have been mixed-to-negative, and Spike definitely hurt his movie's chances by picking a fight with industry icon Clint Eastwood and complaining that he hasn't won an Oscar because of "West coast bias."
Actor-turned-director Clark Gregg's debut Choke (Fox Searchlight) managed an opening weekend PTA of $3,069 for a $1.33 million take, while The Lucky Ones (Lionsgate), a movie about soldiers returning from the Iraq War, met with mediocre reviews and general indifference to the tune of $208,000 or $489 per location.
The weekend's best Per Theater Average was posted by Paramount Vantage's The Duchess, which scored $10,455 at 55 locations followed closely by the Warner Bros western Apaloosa with $10,357 on a decidedly fewer 14 screens.
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $29.2 million, $8,319 PTA, $29.2 million cume
2. NEW Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $13.57 million, $5,018 PTA, $13.57 million cume
3. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $7 million, $2,837 PTA, $25.67 million cume
4. NEW Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $6.51 million, $7,764 PTA, $6.51 million cume
5. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $6.16 million, $2,329 PTA, $45.54 million cume
6. Igor (MGM) — $5.5, $2,349 PTA, $14.33 million cume
7. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $3.803 million, $1,263 PTA, $34.8 million cume
8. My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $3.8 million, $1,442 PTA, $14.52 million cume
9. NEW Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) — $3.5 million, $2,954 PTA, $3.5 million cume
10. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $3.16 million, $1,970 PTA, $32.79 million cume
* NEW Choke (Fox Searchlight) — $1.33 million, $3,069 PTA, $1.33 million cume
* NEW The Lucky Ones (Lionsgate) — $208,000, $489 PTA, $208,000
FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): It's fair to say that 22-year old Shia LaBeouf is batting 1.000. The Generation Next star, who built his fan base with the Disney Channel series Even Stevens, has now scored big with his first four live-action lead roles. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount), the new high-tech thriller starring LaBeouf and directed by D.J. Caruso, has grabbed an estimated $10.5 million on opening day and that will likely translate to an excellent $28.35 million opening weekend. The blazing start for Eagle Eye marks the best opening for any movie since Aug. 15, when Tropic Thunder debuted to $25.8 million.
LaBeouf's last two movies, Transformers and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, have grossed a combined $635 million domestic and $1.5 billion worldwide, but last year's thriller Disturbia started the young actor's hot streak. In his first starring role, a nifty little Hitchcockian yarn also directed by Caruso, he demonstrated nerdy, quirky everyman appeal, and Disturbia opened with a surprisingly strong $22.2 million three-day on its way to $80 million at U.S. theaters. If the $28 million number holds for Eagle Eye (a riff on Hitchcock's North by Northwest), then $85 million-$90 million domestic is possible, which would solidify LaBeouf's credentials as Hollywood's most bankable young star.
A wild card in projecting this weekend's box office is the effect of Friday night's Presidential debate. It is likely that the Senator Obama vs. Senator McCain matchup has dampened Friday moviegoing, especially among the 25 Plus crowd. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) was almost certainly slowed by the debate, but it still registered $4.7 million on Friday, and it will likely reach $14 million for the weekend.
Oscar nominees Richard Gere and Diane Lane are starring together for the third time in Rodanthe. Their first pairing was 24 years ago in Francis Ford Coppola's troubled The Cotton Club ($2.9 million opening, $25.9 million cume). Eighteen years later, they teamed up with much better results in Adrian Lyne's Unfaithful, which opened to $14 million, so their new tearjerker, based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, is on par with that success and a solid No. 2 for the frame.
Sony's holdover Lakeview Terrace, from director Neil LaBute and starring Samuel L. Jackson, added another $2.15 million on its second Friday, and it should finish the three-day at No. 3 with $6.81 million or so, down about 55 percent. By Monday, Terrace should have an estimated 10-day cume of $25.7 million.
Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn), starring Kirk Cameron, appears to be a surprise No. 4 for the day with about $1.9 million. This is a great number for 839 locations, translating to $2,265 per theatre. Cameron rose to fame as Mike Seaver on ABC's Growing Pains in the late 1980s, and he became a vocal evangelical Christian in 1990. The movie is the latest from Sherwood Pictures, a nonprofit ministry of Sherwood Baptist Church in Albany, Ga. The company previously released the 2006 Christian-themed movie Facing the Giants ($1.34 million opening, $10.17 million cume). Fireproof will likely blaze to No. 5 for the three-day with an estimated $4.94 million.
Meanwhile the Coen Brothers's latest film, Burn After Reading (Focus), continues holding strong with approximately $1.81 million on Friday (fifth for the day), and it seems headed for a fourth-place finish for the weekend with an estimated $5.94 million. That will push Burn's domestic take to an impressive $45 million.
Spike Lee's Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) is a huge disappointment. The new James McBride-penned tribute to the WWII-era "Buffalo Soldier" division of the U.S. Army managed only $1 million from 1,185 playdates on its first day in release. It was also likely hurt by the Presidential debate, but that is still a disappointing number, and I am currently projecting just $3.2 million for the weekend and a $2,700 Per Theater Average.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $10.5 million, $2,991 PTA, $10.5 million cume
2. NEW Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $4.7 million, $1,738 PTA, $4.7 million cume
3. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $2.2 million, $892 PTA, $20.9 million cume
4. NEW Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $1.9 million, $2,265 PTA, $1.9 million cume
5. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $1.81 million, $687 PTA, $41.19 million cume
6. My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $1.31 million, $497 PTA, $12 million cume
7. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $1.21 million, $403 PTA, $32.21 million cume
8. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $1.05 million, $655 PTA, $30.68 million cume
9. NEW Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) — $1 million, $844 PTA, $1 million cume
10. Igor (MGM) — $985,000, $421 PTA, $9.82 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $28.35 million, $8,077 PTA, $28.35 million cume
2. NEW Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $14 million, $5,178 PTA, $14 million cume
3. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $6.97 million, $2,827 PTA, $25.67 million cume
4. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $5.94 million, $2,246 PTA, $45.32 million cume
5. NEW Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $4.94 million, $5,888 PTA, $4.94 million cume
6. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $4 million, $1,331 PTA, $35 million cume
7. My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $3.73 million, $1,416 PTA, $14.46 million cume
8. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $3.67 million, $2,291 PTA, $33.3 million cume
9. Igor (MGM) — $3.74, $1,599 PTA, $12.58 million cume
10. NEW Miracle at St. Anna (Disney) — $3.2 million, $2,700 PTA, $3.2 million cume
interesting friday estimates. anybody know how choke did?
Posted by: bob | September 27, 2008 at 05:47 AM
Do you have any numbers yet for CHOKE and DUCHESS?
Last night, CHOKE sold-out three times. DUCHESS did alright, but not nearly as much as expected. EGLE EYE did very well and NIGHTS IN RODANTHE sold-out the whole night.
Posted by: Ryan | September 27, 2008 at 08:58 AM
transformers and indiana jones are not "Shia LaBeouf movies"...the first one belongs to indiana jones and the second, well, transformers. any damn side kick in there could have had the same effect.
crediting shia is as wrong as saying the most bankable super star in hollywood is orlando bloom:
lotr1, lotr2, lotr3, pirates1, pirates2, pirates3
hmmmm.....who else has had 6 movies between 300 and 425 million in 7 years. the bankable star delivered one 300 million movie each year starting from 2001. what fan following he had.
Posted by: abhishek | September 27, 2008 at 09:18 AM
Your right the cast of Lord of the Ring were the first to gross 300 million back to back. And Orlando Blooms movies were the first to make 300 in 1 year pirates 1 and lotr 3
Posted by: salva | September 27, 2008 at 09:57 AM
Abhishek, Shia LeBeouf was THE main star of Transformers, not the sidekick. And a lot of hype for that movie was created by Shia being in the movie. I don't think it would have even made $275 million without him.
As for Indiana Jones, he brought a lot of young people in to see it. And how do you explain Disturbia?
Posted by: J.I. | September 27, 2008 at 09:59 AM
hi J.I,
i would have to disagree.
shia was THE man when you look at all the humans in transformers.
but the main focus in the movie were the CGI machines themselves.
THE man is a person who when removed from the movie has the maximum negative impact on the movie.
transformers grossed 320 million. imagine it without shia or as a second case imagine it without the awesome machines and effects which dominate almost the whole movie.
'The' man is someone like jhonny depp in pirates. where jack sparrow is bigger than the sets and effects.
as regards to indiana, don't want to argue. there are other actors who would have brought in young audience. it was a indiana jones movie. they had that in the title.
disturbia was a solid hit at 70 million, but nothing great in the end.
Posted by: abhishek | September 27, 2008 at 11:05 AM
bash shia all you want, but the guy has talent.
he was great in disturbia and i liked eagle eye. i will agree that he wasn't the star of indiana jones, but he was the lead in transformers (which i also agree that the main focal point was the robots).
bottom line though, do not compare shia labeouf to orlando bloom because shia labeouf has talent unlike orlando bloom. and while we are at it, disturbia was great in the end because 40 million more than people expected
abhishek that bottom line was just for you
Posted by: matt | September 27, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Shia helped Transformers and Indy somewhat, but those two movies helped him more than he helped them. I don't think he'll be a great actor perse, but I believe he'll be a blockbuster star for years to come.
Posted by: W | September 27, 2008 at 02:00 PM
I don't think it is fair to say those movies were his first starring roles. What about Holes, The Battle of Shaker Heights, and The Greatest Game Ever Played?
Saying he is on a hot streak with his last four films is more accurate. That is in addition what others have pointed out that he was not the star of Indiana Jones. I like the guy, but lets not gloss over the facts.
Posted by: KJW | September 27, 2008 at 03:36 PM
Great debate all.
For my money, EAGLE EYE and DISTURBIA are the most impressive movies on Shia's resume. The point about INDY 4 is fair, but he did "young up" the franchise a lot.
You can also make the case that Shia didn't open TRANSFORMERS....big CGI robots did.
But, DISTURBIA and EAGLE EYE is all Shia.
Best,
Steve Mason
Posted by: Steve Mason | September 27, 2008 at 03:48 PM
hey matt,
thanks for the bottom line. that too just for me.
just wish that you realize that the 40 million more it made was because the movie was good.
it was not that the movie sucked and people went...'oh let's watch if for shia'...and it was not as if it 'opened' 40 million more than expected.
it had great legs for it's genere. and shia did a good job. but legs = credit to movie makers.
I think Mase ended the debate well and I didn't need to respond...but this one was just for you Matt.
Posted by: abhishek | September 27, 2008 at 08:58 PM
Its true Steve and I like Shia a lot.
He is so charismatic and talented but his personal life is a disaster with his long history of drinking and his second DUI arrest in less than a year.
I hope he doesnt turn out to be another great star with an autodestructive personality.
Posted by: palmi | September 28, 2008 at 04:38 AM
Sorry to nitpick Mase, but Eagle Eye opened bigger than Tropic Thunder, so Eagle Eye is the biggest opening for any Hollywood movie since Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor ($40.4m).
Posted by: AC | September 28, 2008 at 03:49 PM
Anybody know how many white actors were in the Spike Lee Joint "miracle". If there isn't at least one I am not seeing it. Its might just be payback time, spikO.
Posted by: jdls08 | September 28, 2008 at 09:42 PM