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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

September 19, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Lakeview' Sees Green w/$15.6M; Dane Cook's 'Best Friend's Girl' and 'Igor' at Nos. 3 and 4; 'Ghost Town' Haunts Empty Theaters at No. 8; Knightley's 'Duchess' Rules Crowded PTA Field!

by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is now on Facebook.

FRIDAY 9:30 a.m. (Pacific): Samuel L. Jackson has opened at the top of the box office for a second time in 2008. His racially-charged, crooked-cop flick Lakeview Terrace (Sony) is the new No. 1 movie in America, as I first reported Friday night, with a $15.6 million opening. The movie clearly "clicked" with audiences, surging almost 26 percent on Saturday from Friday's $5.1 million opening day, and Sony is anticipating $3.92 million today. The three-day for Terrace is about 15 percent higher than the $13.5 million that I projected Friday night. Jackson opened much bigger at No. 1 back in February with Jumper ($27.3 million), and Lakeview Terrace represents only the all-time 13th-best opening for him, about on par with 2000's Rules of Engagement ($15 million).

It is easily the biggest opening for playwright-turned-director Neil LaBute, surpassing his dreadful remake of The Wicker Man ($9.6 million). The playwright-turned-director became friends with budding superstar Aaron Eckhart (The Dark Knight) while attending Brigham Young University, and the square-jawed actor starred in LaBute's first 2 features: Sundance Film Festival sensation In the Company of Men ($2.8 million cume) and Your Friends and Neighbors ($4.7 million). As LaBute has drifted from edgy, cynical arthouse fare to lesser commercial projects, the results have been mixed critically. Still, the 43 percent Fresh score for Lakeview Terrace on Rotten Tomatoes represents a quantum leap over the 15 percent Fresh registered by The Wicker Man.

Actor Patrick Wilson's star continues to rise quickly. He opened to excellent reviews on Broadway in All My Sons, also starring John Lithgow, Dianne Wiest and Katie Holmes on Thursday night in New York City. Add to his resume the weekend’s No. 1 movie, next month's Passengers (Sony), Tom Cruise's Valkyrie (MGM/UA) due on Christmas Day and Zack Snyder's hyper-buzzed Watchmen (Warner Bros.) set for March, and Wilson's trajectory seems pointed to superstardom.

Terrace is yet another great little hit for Sony. The movie was made for just $20 million, and it follows the modestly budgeted hits Pineapple Express and The House Bunny. Both movies were made inexpensively and will finish their runs as wildly profitable projects, and now it appears that Lakeview Terrace will follow suit.

The Coen Brothers's Burn After Reading (Focus) will finish the weekend at No. 2 in exactly the range I called for Friday night. The studio-estimated $11.29 million for the goofy spy comedy was down just 41 percent from opening weekend, and Burn is already the all-time fourth-best grossing movie from Joel and Ethan Coen, trailing only last year's Oscar winner No Country for Old Men ($74.2 million cume), O Brother, Where Art Thou? ($45.5 million) and The Ladykillers ($39.8 million.

The new Dane Cook R-rated comedy My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) will slow down the stand-up-comic-turned-actor's film careera little. With an opening of $8.3 million and a third-place finish, the movie is only the comic's fifth-best opening as a lead, behind Good Luck Chuck ($13.6 million), Dan in Real Life ($11.8 million), Employee of the Month ($11.4 million) and Mr. Brooks ($10 million). This movie is comparable to his first film vehicle, Waiting ($6 million opening), and it is hard to see how BFG will push much past $20 million domestic.

Igor (MGM), the new low-budget animated family film received a much larger-than-expected 64 percent bounce, and that has translated to an estimated $8 million and a No. 4 finish. Meanwhile, Righteous Kill (Overture) appears to have nosed out Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) for the weekend $7.7 million-$7.5 million.

The other new wide release, Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) starring HBO Extras star Ricky Gervais, has stumbled out of the gate with just $5.17 million. Written and directed by Steven Spielberg pal David Koepp, Town was on a limited number of screens concentrated on the east and west coasts, but its $3,436 Per Theater Average was still very soft.

Speaking of PTA, Saul Dibb's The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) was the biggest success among specialty releases. The Keira Knightley/Ralph Fiennes period costume drama posted a $29,000 PTA at 7 locations. Apaloosa (Warner Bros.), directed by Ed Harris and starring Viggo Mortensen and Renee Zellweger, scored the No. 2 PTA, nabbing $18,429 at 14 playdates.

3-DAY STUDIO ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $15.6 million, $6,331 PTA, $15.6 million cume
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $11.29 million, $4,251 PTA, $36.4 million cume
3. NEW My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $8.3 million, $3,187 PTA, $8.3 million cume
4. NEW Igor (MGM) — $8 million, $3,425 PTA, $8 million cume
5. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $7.7 million, $2,443 PTA, $28.8 million cume
6. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $7.5 million, $3,623 PTA, $28.35 million cumez
7. The Women (Picturehouse) — $5.3 million, $1,772 PTA, $19.2 million cume
8. NEW Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.17 million, $3,436 PTA, $5.17 million cume
9. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $2.95 million, $1,549 PTA, $521.92 million cume
10. The House Bunny (Sony) — $2.8 million, $1,047 PTA, $45.72 million cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): Samuel L. Jackson's "scare tactics" in Lakeview Terrace (Sony) have put this Neil LaBute-directed thriller at the top of the box-office heap for the three-day weekend. The racially-charged, crooked-cop yarn sold an estimated $4.7 million in tickets on Friday, and it should finish the weekend with $13.5 million or so.

For Jackson, Terrace doesn't even crack his top 15 openings, settling for a number on par with 2006's Snakes on a Plane ($13.8 million), but it is easily LaBute's all-time biggest opening, surpassing his dreadful remake of The Wicker Man ($9.6 million). The playwright-turned-director became friends with budding superstar Aaron Eckhart (The Dark Knight) while attending Brigham Young University, and the square-jawed actor starred in LaBute's first two features: Sundance Film Festival sensation In the Company of Men ($2.8 million cume) and Your Friends and Neighbors ($4.7 million). Unfortunately, he has drifted from edgy, cynical arthouse fare to lesser commercial projects as evidenced by the 43 percent Fresh score for Lakeview Terrace on Rotten Tomatoes (still better than the 15 percent Fresh registered by The Wicker Man).

The weekend's No.1 movie also stars Patrick Wilson, a Golden Globe nominee for HBO's Angels in America and the star of Todd Field's excellent Little Children. Terrace is by far his most commercial film, and, with Passengers (Sony) and Valkyrie (MGM/UA) due by the end of the year and Zack Snyder's hyper-buzzed Watchmen (Warner Bros.) set for March, it is probably just a next step to superstardom.

The Coen Brothers's Burn After Reading (Focus) is solidly at No. 2 for Friday with an estimated $3.42 million. That should translate to an excellent $11.3 million, down just 41 percent from opening weekend. By Monday, the goofball spy comedy will have banked $36.4 million making it the all-time fourth-best grossing movie from Joel and Ethan Coen, trailing only last year's Oscar winner No Country for Old Men ($74.2 million cume), O Brother, Where Art Thou? ($45.5 million) and The Ladykillers ($39.8 million).

Having the most MySpace friends apparently doesn’t make you a sure-thing at the box office. Dane Cook, the stand-up comic-turned-actor who built his career, in part, on the social networking site MySpace, has flopped in the new Lionsgate comedy My Best Friend's Girl. The movie, also starring Kate Hudson, scrounged up just $2.85 million in opening day ticket sales on its way to a likely three-day of just $7.7 million.

Industry tracking seemed to suggest $10 million-plus for this R-rated comedy, but instead the movie is a step backwards for Cook's big-screen career. My Best Friend's Girl is only the comic's fifth-best opening as a lead, behind Good Luck Chuck ($13.6 million), Dan in Real Life ($11.8 million), Employee of the Month ($11.4 million) and Mr. Brooks ($10 million). This movie is comparable to his first film vehicle, Waiting ($6 million opening), and it is hard to see how this one will push past $20 million domestic.

Holdovers Righteous Kill (Overture) and Tyler Perry's Family That Preys (Lionsgate) are neck-and-neck for the day, with Al Pacino and Robert DeNiro holding the edge $2.34 million-$2.2 million. Perry’s film will play stronger with families on Saturday and Sunday, however, so Family That Preys will likely finish No. 4 with $7.59 million, compared to $7.2 million for Kill.

Two other new wide releases have opened very softly. MGM's animated Igor managed $1.9 million on Friday, and it will likely finish sixth with a disappointing $6.8 million. Meanwhile, Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) from Steven Spielberg pal David Koepp and starring Ricky Gervais (HBO's Extras), generated just $1.65 million in Friday sales, and it is headed for an opening weekend of only $5.5 million.

On the specialty front, there is very good news for Saul Dibb's The Duchess (Paramount Vantage), which debuted at seven locations. With Oscar nominees Keira Knightley (Atonement) and Ralph Fiennes (The English Patient) on the marquee, this period costume drama delivered an impressive $62,000 on Friday for a $9,000 Per Theatre Average. The film should wrap the weekend with a $30,000 PTA as it sets up for its platform release.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $4.7 million, $1,907 PTA, $4.7 million cume
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $3.42 million, $1,287 PTA, $28.52 million cume
3. NEW My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $2.85 million, $1,094 PTA, $2.85 million cume
4. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $2.34 million, $742 PTA, $23.44 million cume
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $2.2 million, $1,063 PTA, $23 million cume
6. NEW Igor (MGM) — $1.9 million, $812 PTA, $1.9 million cume
7. The Women (Picturehouse) — $1.87 million, $625 PTA, $15.77 million cume
8. NEW Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.65 million, $1,096 PTA, $1.65 million cume
9. The House Bunny (Sony) — $1 million, $379 PTA, $49.93 million cume
10. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $850,000, $446 PTA, $519.82 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $13.5 million, $5,479 PTA, $13.5 million cume
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $11.3 million, $4,253 PTA, $36.4 million cume
3. NEW My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $7.7 million, $2,957 PTA, $7.7 million cume
4. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $7.59 million, $3,667 PTA, $28.44 million cume
5. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $7.2 million, $2,284 PTA, $28.3 million cume
6. NEW Igor (MGM) — $6.8 million, $2,907 PTA, $6.8 million cume
7. The Women (Picturehouse) — $5.61 million, $1,876 PTA, $19.52 million cume
8. NEW Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.5 million, $3,654 PTA, $5.5 million cume
9. The House Bunny (Sony) — $3.29 million, $1,232 PTA, $46.22 million cume
10. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $3.14 million, $1,651 PTA, $522.11 million cume

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Posted at 11:18 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Good post, Im probably going to see Burn After Reading for the third time this week

Posted by: farzan | September 19, 2008 at 11:39 PM

Didn't "O Brother Where Art Thou" make around $45m? That would make it the Coen brothers' 2nd highest-grossing movie for now.

Also, Patrick Wilson dropped out of Valkyrie.

Thank God people are staying away from that Dane Cook movie, it looks terrible.

Posted by: AC | September 20, 2008 at 12:37 AM

Do you think part of the reason My Best Friend's Girl is bombing is because of the R-rating? I had no idea it was Rated R until I went into work and saw the rating on the marquee. I could've sworn it was PG-13, even though Cook is known for vulgar material.

I still held out hope for Igor, but it appears it was all for naught.

Posted by: Squirrel | September 20, 2008 at 05:27 AM

i think that people are staying away from my best friend's girl because of the piece of crap that was good luck chuck.

Posted by: Matt | September 20, 2008 at 05:57 AM

On The Dutchess's comment about Keira:

She sadly did not receive an Oscar nomination for her role in Atonement, she was nominated for the Golden Globes and BAFTA though. She was however nominated for an Oscar for Pride and Prejudice in 2005.

Posted by: joseap84 | September 20, 2008 at 08:25 AM

I doubt the R rating hurt Dane Cook that much. Good Luck Chuck was rated R and opened with almost twice as much.

Posted by: Leo | September 20, 2008 at 08:40 AM

What about Appaloosa?

Posted by: joker93 | September 20, 2008 at 10:55 AM

No, what hurt Best Friend's Girl was the marketing campaign. There wasn't one. They forgot to include america's sweetheart in the previews. There is no reason this movie couldn't have minimally done Chuck #s if the studios had saturated the market as they did for Chuck a year ago.
Igor could finish in 4th place with a little luck?

Posted by: aadams | September 20, 2008 at 12:42 PM

As always, I appreciate all of the feedback. Yes, on O BROTHER WHERE ART THOU. I made the fix. BURN will be the 4th-best grossing Joel and Ethan Coen movie by Monday morning.

Absolutely correct about Keira being snubbed for ATONEMENT, but I wrote it that way on purpose. My rule is "once an Oscar nominee always an Oscar nominee" and then I often list the most recent, instead of the nominated performance. (I loved her in ATONEMENT).

Best, Mase

Posted by: Steve Mason | September 20, 2008 at 01:12 PM

Then how come you mentioned The English Patient for Ralph Fiennes, he's been in alot since then.

I don't think Dan in Real Life and Mr. Brooks as Dane Cook openings, since he had supporting roles in both.

Posted by: Rob | September 20, 2008 at 02:06 PM

I'm glad to see "The Duchess" doing well, but what's up with "Appaloosa"?
That was supposed to be a PTA/IMDB anchor for me. Any news Mase?

Posted by: Vince | September 20, 2008 at 05:04 PM

I'm kinda shocked about my best friends girl -- but I really think it had more to do with Good Luck Chuck being the worst movie of last year probably the decade that may have turned off a lot of people.

I saw my best friends girl -- pretty good, funny, worth seeing. compared to good luck chuck this deserves an oscar for best picture.

Posted by: jake | September 20, 2008 at 08:53 PM

i'd have to agree that its more about people hating good luck chuck than marketing. i saw plenty of commercials for my best friend's girl, but i will wait until it comes on dvd.

as for the others, igor and ghost town are performing the way i thought they would perform. lakeview terrace on the other hand, i thought it could have done a little more along the lines of 17 million, but oh well.

i am not surprised about the second weekends of last weeks films either.

overall, pretty predictable weekend except for the disappointment of my best friend's girl

Posted by: Bob | September 21, 2008 at 08:06 AM

Igor pulls off 4th place and Chuck #2 only 8 Million, Wow. For the first time ever my perdictions were right. What are people hearing about Eagle Eye.

Posted by: aadams | September 21, 2008 at 10:54 AM

There is a link on leesmovieinfo that says Eagle Eye is tracking better than Clovefield. I didn't open it but its on there.

Posted by: Mike | September 23, 2008 at 07:22 AM

67% awareness vs. 50% for CLoverfield
45% definite interest vs. 39% for Cloverfield
18% 1st Choice among males under 25 vs. 10$ for Cloverfield

A lot of this has to do with Eagle Eye being of more interest to women and not having as much competition for them as 27 Dresses did over MLK Jr. weekend.

There may be some better comparisons out there (MI3?) so I'll look for them.

Posted by: Mike | September 23, 2008 at 07:25 AM

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