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September 17, 2008

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Samuel L. Jackson to Scare Up a Weekend Win with 'Lakeview Terrace;' Cook's 'My Best Friend's Girl' Seems Headed for $12M!

by Steve Mason

The upcoming three-day will be much easier to call than last weekend's photo finish between Burn After Reading (Focus), Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) and Righteous Kill (Overture). The near-certain winner, according to industry tracking and conversations with multiple sources, will be Neil LaBute's Lakeview Terrace (Sony).

Early reviews for Terrace are decidedly negative with just a 42 percent Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the presence of Samuel L. Jackson on the marquee will give this genre pic the boost it needs to win. I am projecting $15 million or so for the frame, which would put it on par with Jackson's all-time 12th-best opening, 2000’s Rules of Engagement ($15 million). It will, however, easily mark the biggest opening of LaBute's film career.

LaBute has a knack for the edgy examination of unsettling and disturbing human relationships, as in his play In the Company of Men, which later became a film starring his Brigham Young University college friend Aaron Eckhart. The movie, shot for a reported $25,000, was a hit at the Sundance Film Festival, got picked up by Sony and grossed $2.8 million domestic. In 1998, he followed up with Your Friends and Neighbors ($4.7 million cume), starring Eckhart, Ben Stiller, Amy Brenneman and Catherine Keener. His most commercial film, the diabolically funny Renee Zellweger vehicle Nurse Betty ($7.1 million opening, $25.1 million cume), came along in 2000. LaBute's racially charged bad-guy-with-a-badge thriller will be a critical and box office rebound from his last movie, the disastrous remake of the Wicker Man ($11.7 million opening, $24.4 million cume) in 2006.

I suspect that the Coen Brothers's Burn After Reading will have an excellent hold, probably down just 35 percent-40 percent, and that may mean a second place finish, just ahead of the new Dane Cook comedy My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate). Industry tracking seems to suggest $10 million-$12 million for Cook's teaming with Kate Hudson and Jason Biggs, and I say it will be at the high end of that range. If the R-rated romantic comedy hits my prediction of an $11.9 million opening, then it will mark Cook's all-time second-best opening, trailing only last year's Good Luck Chuck ($13.6 million).

Holdovers Righteous Kill and Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys will likely round out the weekend Top 5. I am anticipating a steeper drop for Family That Preys, possibly 60 percent to about $6.8 million, compared to something closer to a 50 percent tumble for the Al Pacino-Robert DeNiro paycheck movie, to something in the $8.1 million range.

The other two new wide releases both seem headed for soft openings. Reviews are actually very good for the DreamWorks/Paramount release Ghost Town (80 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), but the high concept comedy (co-written and directed by Steven Spielberg's buddy David Koepp) is on a limited number of screens and may be too hip for many rooms. Star Ricky Gervais is very funny, but he is also very HBO, and that does not help sell tickets in the middle of the country. I am calling for a modest $6.25 million for this one, but the critical reaction makes an upside surprise possible.

Meanwhile, MGM's animated Igor seems to be a low grade Monsters, Inc. riff with little to no promotional muscle behind it. Despite an assemblage of voice talent, including John Cusack, John Cleese, Steve Bucemi, Eddie Izzard and Jay Leno, I am expecting only $5.5 million over the three-day.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 19
1. NEW Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $15 million
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $12 million
3. NEW My Best Friend's Girl (Lionsgate) — $11.9 million
4. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $8.1 million
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) — $6.8 million
6. NEW Ghost Town (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $6.25 million
7. NEW Igor (MGM) — $5.5 million
8. The Women (Picturehuse) — $5 million
9. The House Bunny (Sony) — $3.1 million
10. The Dark Night (Warner Bros.) — $2.9 million

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Posted at 09:01 PM in Advice and Analysis, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

Vince

Poor "Igor"; it looks pretty decent with a strong cast and a cool premise. I wouldn't be too surprised if it did better B.O. because of the absolute dearth of family movies out there, but I think your prediction is spot-on

Posted by: Vince | September 18, 2008 at 11:20 AM

jake

I'm surprised that the tracking is not higher for my best friends girl which boasts Kate Hudson, Dane Cook and Jason Biggs. Out of all that is opening that is the one I wanna see.

Posted by: jake | September 18, 2008 at 06:03 PM

craig

I keep asking myself why | want to see Ghost Town so badly, and then you remind me, David Koepp. Anybody who wrote this years Indiana Jones, Spider man, War of the worlds, Panic Room and Jurassic Park has earned my ten bucks as far as I'm concerned. I just wonder why that wasn't on the posters? I also own his Secret Window and Stir of Echos, so I appreciate his direction as well.

Posted by: craig | September 18, 2008 at 09:27 PM

aadams

Craig, not sure why someone who wrote this years Indiana Jones and directed Secret Window really deserves anything but a kick in the junk... Though Stir was an awesome pick and would have been huge had it not opened 21 days after the Sixth Sense juggernaut.
As for this weekend, My Best Friends Girl will be lucky to make 10. No one goes to see a movie because of Jason Biggs anymore. Dane Cook and his crater face did this movie already and its time we let Dane go back to stand up.
And poor Kate Hudson, she's the main draw here and you never saw her in the comercials.
Total- 8 or 9 M tops

Posted by: aadams | September 19, 2008 at 07:43 AM

Ted

Intertops.com has odds for Lakeview Terrace..

http://www.intertops.com/sportsbook/cgi-win-2/itbet.exe?scrncd=BO;spofno=567492;hide=true;

Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: LAKEVIEW TERRACE
Total Opening 3-Day Weekend Box Office: Friday September 19th to Sunday, September 21st

USD 12 Million to USD 16 Million +125
USD 8 Million to USD 12 Million +125
USD 16 Million or more +220
USD 8 Million or less +400

Posted by: Ted | September 19, 2008 at 09:35 AM

salva

I only have one question will Trnasformers break The Dark Knights records that it set this year

Posted by: salva | September 19, 2008 at 07:43 PM

W

Nope, doesn't even have a chance to crack $450 M. I think it does close to Iron Man like the other one did. This isn't really a question for here, though. Go to the message boards.

Posted by: W | September 19, 2008 at 11:29 PM

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