FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: $30M possible for 'Chihuahua;' 'Nick & Norah' Likely No. 3 with $15M; 'Blindness,' 'Flash of Genius,' 'American Carol' and 'How to Lose Friends' All Headed for Sub-$5M Starts!
by Steve Mason
There are five new wide releases this weekend, along with a notable expansion, but this three-day is certain to "go to the dogs." Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney), starring Piper Perabo and Jamie Lee Curtis and featuring the voice talent of everyone from Drew Barrymore to George Lopez to Placido Domingo, is tracking through the roof, and it is a surefire box office winner.
Chihuahua is the first of four likely blockbusters from Disney set for release in the fourth quarter. The House That Mickey Built will also be scoring big with High School Musical 3: Senior Year on Oct. 24; followed by the animated 3D doggie comedy Bolt, arriving on the Friday before Thanksgiving; and the Adam Sandler family adventure film Bedtime Stories, coming on Christmas Day. It would not be surprising for this to become a quartet of $100 million grossing pictures.
My sources tell me that BHC is scoring big in industry tracking with Females, both Under 25s and Moms, and that the movie will ride a family audience wave through Saturday and Sunday matinees. The film will also hit big with Latinos, thanks to the Mexican setting and the voices of not just Lopez and Domingo, but also Andy Garcia, Cheech Marin, Paul Rodriguez, Edward James Olmos and popular Spanish-language radio deejay Eddie "Piolin" Sotelo. It all adds up to a possible $30.5 million opening weekend.
Last week's winner Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) is showing signs of staying power and may dip as little as 40 percent-45 percent from opening weekend, to something in the $17 million range. That will keep the high-tech Shia LaBeouf thriller on track for a final domestic haul of $95 million-$100 million.
Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony), from director Peter Sollett (Raising Victor Vargas), has gained real traction among the Under 25 set according to the latest tracking. It seems that 20-year-old Michael Cera is the key to the movie's appeal. The Canadian-born actor, who first made a splash in the cult TV hit Arrested Development, is a nerdy heartthrob for a generation of girls who loved him in Superbad ($121.5 million) and Juno ($143.5 million). Nick & Norah will likely open at No. 3 with the possibility of a very solid $15.3 million.
The new movie from past Oscar nominee Fernando Meirelles (City of God, The Constant Gardener) is the tough-to-market Blindness (Miramax). Reviews are verging on awful for this adaptation of Jose Saramago's novel with a score of just 41 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night, and now the picture will be fighting a national protest as well. This futuristic thriller, starring four-time Oscar nominee Julianne Moore, tells the story of a terrifying plague of blindness. And Dr. Marc Mauer, President of the National Federation of the Blind, says that his group, "Condemns and deplores this movie, which will do substantial harm to the blind of America and the world." With 1,700 playdates, a sign that Miramax is trying to grab what it can before bad word-of-mouth sets in, it could still manage $2,600 or so per location for a possible $4.5 million.
Universal's Flash of Genius, the real-life story of Robert Kearns — who invented the intermittent windshield wiper, had the invention stolen by Ford and then devoted years of his life to suing the auto giant — will open on a more limited 1,000 or so screens. Reviews are very good (80 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night), and, with a cast including Oscar nominee Greg Kinnear (As Good As It Gets, Little Miss Sunshine), Golden Globe nominee Lauren Graham (Gilmore Girls) and Oscar nominee Alan Alda (M*A*S*H), Flash could score a $4,100 PTA for a $4.1 million opening and a No. 6 finish.
Two other new releases look very soft in tracking research. David Zucker's conservative comedy rant An American Carol (Vivendi) seems headed for $3 million and may miss the Top 10 altogether. Things could be even tougher for MGM's How to Lose Friends and Alienate People, which, despite the presence of rising British star Simon Pegg (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz), will probably manage no better than $2.5 million.
Finally, the Ed Harris-directed western Apaloosa (Warner Bros.) will expand to 800 or so screens, and $1.8 million could be the ceiling despite strong reviews and a cast that includes Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) and Academy Award winners Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain) and Jeremy Irons (Reversal of Fortune).
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCT. 3-5
1. NEW Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $30.5 million
2. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $17.5 million
3. NEW Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $15.3 million
4. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $7.4 million
5. NEW Blindness (Miramax) — $4.5 million
6. NEW Flash of Genius (Universal) — $4.1 million
7. Igor (MGM) — $3.55 million
8. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $3.5 million
9. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $3.3 million
10. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $3.25 million
* NEW An American Carol (Vivendi) — $3 million
* NEW How to Lose Friends and Alienate People (MGM) — $2.5 million
* Apaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $1.8 million
I've been hearing nothing but bad word of mouth for "Eagle Eye", but I think that it won't drop much more than 50% this weekend (if that). I could see "Nick and Norah" pulling a solid $16 million this weekend. But don't get me started on that darn "Chihuahua" movie...
Posted by: Vince | October 01, 2008 at 01:47 AM
oh please fail you stupid chihuahua movie. this looks extremely terrible and i hope people don't go to this. however, i think the kids will drag their parents to see this and i see this making somewhere in the 25 million range.
are you kidding vince? i don't know where you are hearing your eagle eye bad word of mouth from. i have heard good word of mouth from people saying that it is a great escape from the harsh economic times we are living in despite the stupid premise.
Posted by: Matt | October 01, 2008 at 11:52 AM
if BHC makes more then 15mil this weekend i will cut off my testicals u are cracked out if u think its gonna make 30.5 its racist and demening to latinos if i was spanish id be boycotting disney
Posted by: jeremy | October 01, 2008 at 01:28 PM
That would be scary if An American Carol outgrossed Appaloosa. I mean, does the former have an audience outside of the audience that never goes to the theatre (expect to see Fireproof)?
Posted by: Buscemi | October 01, 2008 at 02:19 PM
I told my father in law about American Carol and he said, "I'll see that movie this weekend!"
He's usually a guy that, with my brother-in-law, drives to the theater and looks at the posters to figure out what they'll see. This is the first movie I remember him wanting to see in advance.
Also... GO CHIHUAHUA!!! I believe in you!
PS: I have Chihuahua on EVERY BO SLATE POSSIBLE!
Posted by: W | October 02, 2008 at 08:49 AM
Do you really think it is appropriate to say what offends another racial/religous/etc. group? If it were racist in any way, I think someone from the outspoken Latino community would have said something already.
If the movie were "Beverly Hill Daschund," I would expect a German accent.
Posted by: W | October 02, 2008 at 08:52 AM
I don't know how much boxoffice "American Carol" will have this weekend but our theater of 250 people was sold out and we were all laughing on the floor. It was hilariously great, great, great.
Posted by: jdls08 | October 03, 2008 at 10:37 PM
I don't know how much boxoffice "American Carol" will have this weekend but our theater of 250 people was sold out and we were all laughing on the floor. It was hilariously great, great, great.
Posted by: jdls08 | October 03, 2008 at 10:39 PM