His new movie from Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta is not a "fat suit comedy" like Diary of a Mad Black Woman and Madea's Family Reunion. Instead, this is a drama that intertwines two families — one black and one white — personally and in business, and it boasts Academy Award winner Kathy Bates (Misery, About Schmidt) and Oscar nominee Alfre Woodard (Passion Fish, Desperate Housewives).

The trailer and TV commercials for The Family That Preys portray a more-serious-than-usual Perry project (right down to the use of Jill Scott's edgy "Hate On Me"), but that does not necessarily spell disaster. Perry most likely knows what he is doing. His core audience is Christian, middle-class, African-American women, and this movie appears to be spot-on for that crowd (industry tracking looks solid with Females 25 Plus). It will not, however, grab the Under 25 business of his comedies, so I am predicting something in the $18 million range.

That would make this Perry's second-softest opening behind Madea's Family Reunion ($30 million), Diary of A Mad Black Woman ($21.9 million), Why Did I Get Married? ($21.3 million) and this year's Meet the Browns ($20 million), and ahead of only 2007's Daddy's Little Girls ($11.2 million). Still, given that he is attempting to reach for new fans, this would be a good opening.

It is not inconceivable that Righteous Kill could win the weekend, but I suspect it will finish at No. 2. It is hard to talk about this movie without mentioning producer Avi Lerner. According to IMDb, he has produced 214 movies in his career, many through his company, Millennium Films. In the last two years, 11 Millennium projects have reached U.S. theatres, and they are some of the worst-reviewed box-office misses in recent history:

MILLENNIUM FILMS THEATRICAL RELEASES SINCE SEPTEMBER 2006
(Includes Domestic Gross and Rating on Rotten Tomatoes)
The Wicker Man (September 2006) — $23.6 million, 15 percent Fresh
The Black Dahlia (September 2006) — $22.5 million, 34 percent Fresh
Home of the Brave (December 2006) — $52,000, 23 percent Fresh
Lonely Hearts (April 2007) — $188,000, 51 percent Fresh
King of California (September 2007) — $268,000, 62 percent Fresh
Blonde Ambition (December 2007) — $6,422, 14 percent Fresh
Rambo (January 2008) — $42.75 million, 36 percent Fresh
Mad Money (January 2008) — $20.6 million, 21 percent Fresh
Blonde and Blonder (January 2008) — $42,183, N/A (Not enough reviews)
88 Minutes (April 2008) — $16.9 million, 6 percent Fresh
War, Inc. (May 2008) — $580,000, 31 percent Fresh

It is still hard to believe that Al Pacino made the dreadful 88 Minutes (Sony) for Lerner, but now, he's following up with the as-yet-unseen Righteous Kill. Given Millennium's track record, Overture has perhaps wisely kept the picture under wraps with critics, and industry expectations are very low. How bad can a movie starring Al Pacino and Robert De Niro be? One studio exec said to me, "They aren't even good on the poster."

It is depressing to see two of the greatest stars in movie history accepting roles in below average movies for big paychecks without any regard for legacy. It's been a long time since we heard Pacino say, "Fredo, you're my older brother, and I love you. But don't ever take sides with anyone against the Family again. Ever." Since De Niro was staring into that mirror and simmering, "You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me?"  Since Pacino was leading a chant of, "Attica! Attica! Remember Attica?" And since DeNiro shadowboxed while muttering, "I'm da boss, I'm da boss." But my hunch is that a fair number of unsuspecting moviegoers will read the stars on the marquee and buy tickets this weekend, and Righteous Kill could hit $16 million.

The Coen Brothers return this weekend with their follow-up to Best Picture winner No Country For Old Men. The quirky, comic spy thriller Burn After Reading (Focus) stars Oscar winners George Clooney, Frances McDormand and Tilda Swinton, along with Academy Award nominees Brad Pitt and John Malkovich, and the reviews are very good (71 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but Ethan and Joel have never been sure things at the box office. The success of No Country, however, has put this movie in position to be the biggest wide opening for a Coen Brothers film ever, surpassing The Ladykillers ($12.6 million) and Intolerable Cruelty ($12.5 million). I am pegging Burn After Reading for a possible $13.6 million three-day.

The other new wide release this weekend is the female-geared The Women (Picturehouse), a remake of George Cukor's 1939 classic. Despite the presence of many of the most interesting American actresses working today — Meg Ryan, Annette Bening, Eva Mendes, Debra Messing, Jada Pinkett-Smith, Bette Midler and Candice Bergen — Murphy Brown creator Diane English's feature debut will not be a Sex and the City-style box office surprise. The tracking looks good with Females 25 Plus, but $7.3 million appears to be the weekend target.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF SEPT. 12-14
1. Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys Together (Lionsgate) — $18 million
2. Righteous Kill (Overture) — $16.1 million
3. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $13.6 million
4. The Women (Picturehouse) — $7.3 million
5. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.3 million
6. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $4.2 million
7. Bangkok Dangerous (Lionsgate) — $4.1 million
8. The House Bunny (Sony) — $3.5 million
9. Traitor (Overture) — $2.1 million
10. Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $1.7 million