Anyway, the PTA problem. Competition for PTA points is much more heated in the winter months than in the summer season, and it just gets more and more difficult to determine which films might bring home a boatload of PTA. One reason for this is that, quite simply, there is a greater number of smaller films being released. While there may be a handful of movies opening limited on any given weekend in the summer and fall, most of the time, only the highest-profile one is available in the Fantasy Moguls game. Such was the case two weekends ago, when Towelhead topped the PTA standings, but Enlighten Up, Greetings from the Shore, Loins of Punjab Presents, Moving Midway and Walking on Dead Fish  also made their debut. (Had you ever heard of any of those before this? Me neither.)

In winter seasons, the tendency is that more of the limited-release films are of higher profile (or have had their releases planned for a while and aren't just a last-minute addition), and thus more likely to be available to Fantasy Moguls  players. For example, we had both Atonement (32 locations) and Juno (7 locations) "open small" on the same December weekend last year, as well as There Will Be Blood, The Bucket List, Persepolis, and The Orphanage on the same weekend later that month. This increase in competition is just one factor that makes it harder to predict PTA winners.

While the winter months certainly have their blockbusters, they aren't quite as dominant as the summer tentpoles. Instead of opening above $100 million like Hancock did, maybe something like Quantum of Solace opens in the $40 million-$50 million range instead, and simply has great traction in the market. What this means is that big blockbusters tend to fall out of the PTA standings much quicker than they do in the summer. Think about it: If you release a movie on 3,000 screens in July and it makes $90 million, that's $30,000 per screen. But rarely does a winter movie make $90 million opening weekend. In fact, that's only happened twice before: with Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone back in 2001, and again with Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire in 2005. Instead, a great winter opening, even on a similarly wide 3,000-4,000 screens, is around $50 million-$60 million. Logically, then, the PTA would be much lower. Still good for some PTA points, of course, but the smaller overall grosses mean there is a greater opportunity for more of the arthouse fare to sneak into the PTA standings. Oh sure, sometimes a blockbuster will sneak in there on multiple weekends (I Am Legend earned 7 PTA points last year), but in the majority of cases, the big movies are less dominant as far as PTA is concerned.

Also contributing to that trend is the onslaught of awards-chasing films that are released in the winter months. As proof, consider that all five of last year's Best Picture nominees came out in October, November, or December. Oscar bait often has a lot of advance buzz and favorable reviews, which obviously help drive up awareness but also entice more people into seeing the movie earlier than they otherwise would (i.e., when it expands on an Academy run after nominations are announced). As an example of an awards-chasing movie looming large, eventual Oscar-winner No Country for Old Men stayed among the PTA leaders for the entire month of November after its release on Nov. 9. Of course, a stamp of approval from critics isn't all that drove No Country. Which brings me to ...

KEY FACTORS FOR DETERMINING POTENTIAL PTA WINNERS

There are five factors that I watch for when figuring out which movies might be PTA powerhouses. A film doesn't necessarily have to meet all the criteria to be a good pick, but having a few of these selling points going for it certainly doesn't hurt:

Early buzz (from film festivals or just early critics' screenings) — Whether from Sundance, or Cannes, or Venice, or the Toronto International Film Festival, anything that debuts with some success at a highly competitive film festival is usually worth a look for Fantasy Moguls players. Hence, films like Slumdog Millionaire (Toronto) and The Wrestler (Venice, Toronto) may deserve some love in future seasons.
Big-name, or at least noteworthy, directors who may have gotten Oscar nods in the past — The Coen Brothers, for example, or, even though it didn't really work out, Francis Ford Coppola with last year's Youth Without Youth. One that fits this category, and that I'm personally looking forward to seeing, but that isn't out 'til December (and thus isn't available for Fantasy Moguls  players yet) is Ron Howard's (The Da Vinci Code, A Beautiful Mind, Apollo 13) Frost/Nixon. Or, if you prefer, think of the billing power of a Scorsese or a Ridley Scott or a P.T. Anderson.
An impressive cast — Think of an actor/actress who almost singlehandedly makes you want to see the movie even if you wouldn't otherwise. (For me, that's Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt.) Or even just an actor who usually, or at least often, makes critically acclaimed movies — i.e. George Clooney in last year's Michael Clayton, or Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood. It could even be a formidable ensemble cast along the lines of Burn After Reading that makes you sit up and take notice.
Identical or similar source material to something else successful — Think of how every Nicholas Sparks adaptation gets compared with The Notebook, or the recent fanfare over Chuck Pahlaniuk's novel Choke becoming a feature film after the cult success of Fight Club. Perhaps even Clint Eastwood's companion piece experiment two years ago, with Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima, applies.
Believe it or not, certain studios tend to release more PTA winners — Anything from Focus Features or IFC is probably worth a second look, and if you're careful, Miramax and Fox Searchlight usually don't steer you wrong either. (Those of you stricken by Blindness might beg to differ, I know, but Miramax is usually on the right track.) Paramount Vantage, Warner Independent, and Sony Classics are a little less reliable, but still deliver good PTA picks once in a while. In those cases, pay attention more to the movie itself than to the distributor. Always watch the release plan, though — because you don't want an abnormal strategy like the 400-screen estimate for Choke to ruin your PTA chances.

With all of this in mind, here are my six Potentially Powerful PTA Picks (or PPPPs) for the remainder of the September-November season. Price isn't part of my analysis; some of these are way too expensive for me to recommend putting on your slate. Just remember as you're reading the list that I'm exclusively examining PTA potential, without any thought to viability as an actual slate choice.

Rachel Getting Married (Oct. 3)
Key Factors: Cast, Director, Festival Buzz
With Brokeback Mountain and Becoming Jane already under her belt, Anne Hathaway is certainly familiar with more serious filmmaking, but I'd still think her best suited to lighter fare such as The Devil Wears Prada, Get Smart, or The Princess Diaries rather than as a leading actress in a drama/dark comedy about a dysfunctional family. Early word from Toronto and Venice, however, is that she gives a fantastic performance as Kym, the estranged sister of Rachel (you know, the one getting married), who's been in and out of rehab for the past ten years. Her return for Rachel's wedding throws the family dynamics into disarray, bringing some long-buried tension back to the surface in ways that are both, to quote the IMDb plot summary "hilarious and heartbreaking." Director Jonathan Demme isn't the focal point of what signals Rachel's PTA potential for me — it's mostly the festival reaction — but he did previously win an Oscar for The Silence of the Lambs. I think this can outshine What Just Happened? on Oct. 3 to take home the PTA crown, and maybe even stick around among the PTA leaders for a few weeks.

The Secret Life of Bees (October 17)
Key Factors: Cast, Studio
The ensemble cast in this book adaptation includes Queen Latifah, Dakota Fanning, Jennifer Hudson, Alicia Keys (alas, no theme song with Jack White for this movie), Paul Bettany, and Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda). That's a pretty stacked lineup. Another thing that caught my eye while scanning the credits is that both Will and Jada Pinkett-Smith are listed as producers. That may not mean much of anything — after all, Will Smith was a producer on Lakeview Terrace too, and I'm not sure how much that helped — but maybe it's a positive sign. Another important factor is that Fox Searchlight is handling distribution. Though they seem to have bungled the release of Choke, they generally know how to milk a movie for PTA, especially in the fall/winter awards season (see Juno, for example, or even Under the Same Moon, which had baffling success considering its release on over 100 screens opening weekend).

Synecdoche, New York (October 24)
Key Factors: Cast, Director, Festival Performance
Remember that comment earlier about Phillip Seymour Hoffman? The same thing applies here, although maybe to a little lesser extent. After an Oscar win for Capote and a nomination for Charlie Wilson's War, it's clear that he's one of today's top actors. Maybe not money-wise, but certainly quality-wise; he's come a long way from, say, Twister and Along Came Polly (although he's hilarious in that). Director Charlie Kaufman is no stranger to awards podiums, having won a screenplay Oscar for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and being nominated on two other occasions, for Adaptation and Being John Malkovich. Synecdoche, New York itself was even in competition for the Golden Palm at Cannes earlier this year. I'm not sure if it'll win the PTA crown on Oct. 24, but even if it doesn't, I do think it can stay among the top PTA performers for multiple weeks.

Changeling (October 24)
Key Factors: Director, Festival Performance, Cast
Box Office Mojo currently lists a limited release for Changeling, but if that, ahem, changes, its PTA prospects will go down. As it stands now, though, with exclusive limited engagements for at least the first weekend, this film stands to rake in the PTA — and depending on how wide the expansion is, it could have some traction in that category. Like Synecdoche, New York, Changeling competed at Cannes to generally warm reception. The biggest selling point (and indicator of PTA potential) for the movie, however, is that Clint Eastwood is directing. He's won the Best Achievement in Directing Oscar twice (for Million Dollar Baby and Unforgiven), and nominated on two other occasions (Mystic River and Letters from Iwo Jima). Oh, and Angelina Jolie and John Malkovich, the two stars of the film, are hardly slouches themselves. All that combines into a pretty potent PTA recipe.

The Road (November 14)
Key Factors: Source Material, Cast
Viggo Mortenson is also fresh off an Oscar nom (for Eastern Promises). Like Phillip Seymour Hoffman, he doesn't make many films (just one or two a year), but the ones he does make are generally pretty good. (His other 2008 project is Appaloosa, which I haven't seen, but I'll say this: Had I written this column a week earlier, it would have been one of my PPPPs.) The source material is important because it's a novel from Cormac McCarthy, the man who wrote No Country for Old Men. While the screenwriters adapting the novel aren't the same, perhaps the material is just as awards-worthy. Mortenson plays a man navigating a post-apocalyptic wasteland America, traveling with nothing but a pistol and some scavenged food, traveling to the coast without knowing what he'll find. Charlize Theron, Robert Duvall, and Guy Pearce are other noteworthy cast members. (I can't help but notice that, in nearly all her small-scale film roles — Monster, North Country and The Road, too — Ms. Theron kind of "uglies up." Hancock was a nice change of pace for her as far as flaunting her looks goes; can't wait for The Brazilian Job!)

Milk (November 26)
Key Factors: Director, Cast, Studio
The trailer makes sure to proclaim that this is a Gus Van Sant film, and that's a good sign for its PTA prospects. After all, he won an Oscar back in 1997 for Good Will Hunting, and brought us PTA goldmines each of the past two years with a segment of Paris je t'aime and Paranoid Park. This will be Sean Penn's first appearance on screen since All the King's Men in 2006, although he did direct last year's Into the Wild. Penn has four Oscar noms and one win (for Mystic River), and the somewhat controversial subject (he plays Harvey Milk, the first openly gay man to run for public office) should also help draw the crowds. Josh Brolin (who is just raking in the high-profile prestige roles: No Country for Old Men, American Gangster, Milk and W.), Emile Hirsch, and James "You're a servant? Like a butler?" Franco co-star. It's also helpful to notice that it looks like Focus Features is making this their awards-run hopeful this year. (Last year it was Atonement.) Expect a limited release at Thanksgiving, and a PTA title that weekend, followed by slow expansion as positive reviews and word-of-mouth build. If Focus plays it right — and they probably will; they're one of the best at the slow platform release — Milk could spill a dozen or more PTA points into your lap.

That's all for this week; next time I'll examine the studs, duds, and wild cards of October. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative would probably be played by Bob Parr in The Fantasy Moguls Movie. There's a certain resemblance there. Send your own casting suggestions to misterinformative@gmail.com.