WEEKEND OF SEPT. 5-7

Stud: Bangkok Dangerous — Although it feels a lot like last year's WAR ($9 million opening), with as small a price tag as it's got, it's not a bad deal. A $9 million opening weekend is far from spectacular, but that should still be good enough for first or second place at the box office. (Even so, it looks like we may be in store for a weekend where no film makes more than $10 million; that hasn't happened since April 2007.) It'll fade fast — just like, some might argue, Nicolas Cage's career is doing (ouch) — but the small flash in the pan it will provide could be worth it. PTA won't be spectacular, but it may grab a point or two, and the IMDb User Rating will surely be at least satisfactory, probably in the 5 or 6 range. Of course, you may want to skip this weekend's offerings entirely, and I wouldn't blame you, but Bangkok will at least give you some decent stats.
Dud: Since Bangkok Dangerous is the only new release, I'll just take this space to rip on Disaster Movie a little bit. It has managed a completely deserved 0 percent fresh rating on RottenTomatoes. That's right, no critic gave it a positive rating. Can't say we didn't see this coming ...
Wild Card: Tropic Thunder — If Bangkok Dangerous underperforms, then Thunder could be looking at a fourth straight weekend win; that'd be a huge boost to those who have it on their slates. I'm not sure it has the legs to do it, but, then again, does Nic Cage have enough mullet to stand in its way? (Judging by that Bangkok Dangerous trailer, he's sure giving it a try, at least.) Keep an eye on the Friday numbers to see whether Thunder can keep on rumbling.

WEEKEND OF SEPT. 12-14

Stud: Towelhead — It's the only small film being released on this particular weekend, so a PTA win is likely. I doubt that any of the wide releases will make enough to top a strong showing from Towelhead, opening exclusively in major markets. It could even earn you PTA points in consecutive weeks, although two straight weekends atop the PTA leaderboard is probably too much to ask. The IMDb score is already at 7.9, and I don't think it'll dip much lower than that, even with the controversial subject matter. And though the effect probably won't be all that noticeable, I do think Aaron Eckhart is more "on the map" right now than he might otherwise be, thanks to The Dark Knight, so all of a sudden there's another recognizable face for audiences to perhaps latch on to. (Maria Bello's role in The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, however, won't have quite the same effect.) Coming out in September means Towelhead may be another film that gets quickly forgotten after it leaves theaters, but you can still use it to your slate's benefit.
Dud: The Women — Yeesh, no thank you. Granted, I'm not really part of the target audience, but I have a feeling even those who are will stay away, or wait two weeks for Nights in Rodanthe instead. Candice Bergen is far past her Murphy Brown days, Carrie Fisher just can't rock that metal bikini like she used to, Meg Ryan hasn't really made anything of note since Kate and Leopold back in 2001, and Debra Messing should maybe just stick to cable TV. The Women is a remake of a 1939 film and, check it out, the IMDb summary makes it sound like the 1939 version of Sex and the City, complete with nifty language:

The story centers on a group of gossipy, high-society women who spend their days at the beauty salon and haunting fashion shows. The sweet, happily-wedded Mary Haines finds her marriage in trouble when shop girl Crystal Allen gets her hooks into Mary's man. Naturally, this situation becomes the hot talk amongst Mary's catty friends, especially the scandalmonger Sylvia Fowler, who has little room to talk — she finds herself on a train to Reno and headed for divorce right after Mary.

That's right, when Crystal "gets her hooks" into someone else's man, the catty friends and the scandalmonger find gossip topics ripe for the picking. "Scandalmonger" is an awesome word (hence my repetition of it), but that's about as far as awesome goes with this movie. It won't break past any of the other new releases, and will fall flat — as a comparable, the poor performance of something like In the Land of Women comes to mind.
Wild Card: Righteous Kill — Maybe this is the movie that finally legitimizes Overture Films as a distributor. Mad Money sure didn't help, but The Visitor was a PTA gem, Traitor was a good step in the right direction, and Al Pacino and Robert De Niro are a pretty potent 1-2 punch. Still, you'd think that if Overture were confident about it, they might put the movie out in, well, any time other than the dumping ground of September. One thing to beware of is the fact that director Jon Avnet struck out with his last effort, 88 Minutes. That also featured Pacino, but even he couldn't save it, so here's hoping Avnet learned from his mistakes and will bring us a better product this time around. I don't think Righteous Kill wins the weekend, but it could come in a close second, and as cheap as it is in August-October leagues, that's good enough for me. For some reason, it reminds me a little bit of We Own the Night, which made $27 million last year — I think that's a solid estimate for Righteous Kill as well.

WEEKEND OF SEPT. 19-21

Stud: The Duchess — As I mentioned last week, this period role is right in Keira Knightley's wheelhouse, and she'll knock it out of the park, to continue the baseball analogy. A weekend PTA win is a distinct possibility, because I don't think Battle in Seattle will be much of a threat, nor will Hounddog do much on upwards of 400 screens. The IMDb score will also be excellent, and maybe if it expands it can pull in some moderate box office revenue as well. It reminds me a little bit of Marie Antoinette, because it's set around the same time (purportedly, Knightley's character, Georgiana, Duchess of Devonshire, actually knew Marie Antoinette) and features similarly gaudy costumes. I don't think the $15 million Marie Antoinette made over its full run is within range for The Duchess. Still, you'll be able to count on it for a sterling IMDb score, and of course, remember: Keira + historical role usually = PTA.
Dud: Ghost Town — It'll get lost in the shuffle. No way can Ricky Gervais outperform Samuel L. Jackson, Dane Cook, Kate Hudson and an animated John Cusack, all in the same weekend. Plus, when I'm indifferent towards the parts of the trailer I'm supposed to laugh at, that's probably not a good sign. Director David Koepp wrote the screenplay for, believe it or not, Spider-Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, but Ghost Town is assuredly not going to rival either of those. I think it'll debut outside the Top 5, and fall off quickly. The IMDb score may not be bad, but don't waste your money on it just for that benefit. Ricky Gervais and Greg Kinnear are respectable enough actors, but somehow this movie just makes them seem terribly uninteresting. It'll be a misfire on all counts; Ghost Town will describe not only the film but the condition of the theaters where it's showing — empty and desolate.
Wild Card: My Best Friend's Girl — I've made the comparison to Good Luck Chuck before, and that's still applicable. Jason Biggs isn't much to get excited about, but he won't be front and center anyway; that belongs to Kate Hudson and Dane Cook. I'm not sure that this can outgun Lakeview Terrace for the top spot at the box office, but something between $12 million and $15 million is within reach opening weekend, and a $30 million-$40 million total take seems about right. The R rating is a potential danger, but that didn't hamper Chuck too much, so it shouldn't have a negative effect in this case either. I'm guessing the movie will be full of awful (as in crude) jokes and innuendo — for proof, see the red band trailer — but Chuck (and practically any movie made by Judd Apatow, especially Superbad) proved there's an audience for that. And hey, at least Dane Cook the actor is less spastic than Dane Cook the standup comedian, right?

WEEKEND OF SEPT. 26-28

Stud: Eagle Eye — And that's not really a big surprise. Two consecutive weekend victories might even be in order. I have no doubt that this will equal, if not surpass, the $80 million brought in by Disturbia last year, and it might even be the first fall film to crack $100 million. It was moved from an early August release to September, but I think this is the exception to the rule that pushing a movie's release date back is cause for concern. There are really only two names I need to mention, and both are pretty much synonymous with solid performance: star Shia LaBeouf and producer Steven Spielberg. It can't hurt to mention director D.J. Caruso either, since he was behind the camera for Disturbia as well. I still think the September opening weekend record of $35 million (held by Sweet Home Alabama) isn't too far out of reach, but if it doesn't break the record, it'll at least be one of the Top 5 September openings of all time. Unless it's super expensive in the September-November leagues (which hadn't opened yet at the time I wrote this column), go all in, for sure.
Dud: Blindness — I know, I know, just last week I said this was one of the mid-range values. Since then, I've changed my mind a bit. If it comes out on the Sept. 19, as Box Office Mojo reports, then I don't think it'll beat The Duchess as far as PTA is concerned. Same goes for Sept.26, against Choke. So, why not take either of those other two films, for a comparable price? To boot, Sept. 26 might be a wide opening, but I'd wager that the theater count would be around 1,000, maybe a little lower — too few for substantial box office revenue, yet too many to make a dent in PTA. Its IMDb score is currently at 6.4, which isn't terrible, but I'd think you'd want something in the 7s or 8s for a prestige PTA pick (Choke is at 7.1, for example). Haven't seen Mark Ruffalo on screen in nearly a year (since Zodiac and Reservation Road), but did we really miss him that much? Revised advice: avoid going Blind.
Wild Card: Nights in Rodanthe — It won't unseat Eagle Eye atop the box office charts, but second place is within reach. Back in 2004, The Notebook opened with $13 million; I think Nights in Rodanthe can do the same. Diane Lane and Richard Gere were a potent combo in Unfaithful, and they're hoping to rekindle that chemistry here. The sweeping music will play, Gere will say the sweetest and most romantic things and there will be lots of passionate kisses, plus, judging by the trailer, a lesson about never giving up on love. Tears will be shed, both on screen and in the audience — it's just so perfectly romantic, right? Is that the appeal? Nicholas Sparks (who wrote the novels on which both The Notebook and Rodanthe are based) already has another book, Dear John, optioned for a 2009 release with Channing Tatum attached to star — and I'm sure it will be a chick flick to keep an eye out for. As stereotypical or clichéd as these movies may be, they still sell, so it may be worthwhile to give Rodanthe a look.

Next week I'll officially send off summer 2008 with a look ahead at the sinkholes, sleepers and sure things of summer 2009. Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative is more sure about Eagle Eye than anything since that movie with The Rock as an NFL quarterback who has to take care of a little girl. Is he right, or is he right? (Remember, he was right about The Game Plan.) Send your own analysis to misterinformative@gmail.com.