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Advice & Analysis: Reviews

September 05, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Bangkok Dangerous' Leads Historically Slow Frame with Just $7.8M; 'Tropic Thunder' Second by a Nose w/$7.5M; 'Bunny' Bumps Batman for No. 3!

by Steve Mason

SUNDAY 9:30 a.m. (Pacific): It was a rough weekend to be an exhibitor as business, on one of the traditionally worst weekends of the year, was even worse than usual. According to official studio estimates the Top 12 movies managed to generate only $51.61 million (which is still better than the $44.4 million I projected Friday night), making this the worst weekend for Hollywood in the last half-decade.

The last weekend to perform this badly was Sept. 5-7 of 2003, when David Spade was at the top of the box office heap in the poorly-received Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star. In fact, the current three-day period is the seventh-worst of this decade, and, although the National Treasure franchise makes Nicolas Cage far more relevant at America's multiplexes than David Spade, there is reason for concern.

Bankok Dangerous (Lionsgate), the Cage vehicle directed by Danny and Oxide Pang, managed just $2.7 million on its opening day, received an 11 percent bump on Saturday for an additional $3 million, and it will add an estimated $2.1 million on Sunday, for a meager $7.8 million opening. That is Academy Award winner Cage's fourth-worst wide opening in the last 10 years, ahead of only The Weather Man ($4.2 million), Bringing Out the Dead ($6.1 million), Captain Corelli's Mandolin ($7.2 million) and Next ($7.1 million).

Not only has Cage been making more bad movies than good ones (his last six movies have received an average of 24 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), but his films are getting release dates traditionally set aside for clunkers. Two of the worst release dates every year are the weekend after Labor Day and the last weekend of April. Cage's film prior to December blockbuster release National Treasure: Book of Secrets, was Next, which opened the last weekend of April 2007 (a few days before the release of Spider-Man 3).

Everything performed a bit better than I projected on Friday night. As one studio exec told me this morning, "People had to see something." Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) scored another $7.5 million, barely missing a fourth consecutive weekend win. The Ben Stiller-directed R-rated comedy is now just shy of $97 million domestic.

The Anna Faris comedy The House Bunny (Sony) edged The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) for No. 3 with $5.9 million and a solid new cume of $37 million. Meanwhile, TDK has reached $512 million after a $5.71 million three-day. Rounding out the Top 5 is Traitor (Overture), starring Don Cheadle, which picked up another $4.66 million for a new cume of $17.6 million.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Bangkok Dangerous (Lionsgate) — $7.8 million, $2,943 PTA, $7.8M million cume
2. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $7.5 million, $2,176 PTA, $96.81 million cume
3. The House Bunny (Sony) — $5.9 million, $2,156 PTA, $36.99 million cume
4. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $5.71 million, $2,039 PTA, $511.73 million cume
5. Traitor (Overture) — $4.66 million, $2,210 PTA, $16.79 million cume
6. Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $4 million, $1,167 PTA, $17.19 million cume
7. Death Race (Universal) — $3.59 million, $1,032 PTA, $28.86 million cume
8. Disaster Movie (Lionsgate) — $3.3 million, $1,106 PTA, $10.49 million cume
9. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $2.71 million, $1,424 PTA, $136.25 million cume
10. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $2.4 million, $1,331 PTA, $84.15 million cume
11. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Co.) — $2.2 million, $3,066 PTA, $16.11 million cume
12. Mirrors (20th Century Fox) — $1.82 million, $638 PTA, $27.76 million cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): The first weekend after Labor Day is traditionally one of the slowest, if not the slowest, movie weekends of the year. This year, however, business is even worse than expected. With school starting, high school, college and NFL football getting cranked up, and only one new wide release, Hollywood seems headed for its worst weekend since September 2001, and its third-worst since 2000.

The Top 12 movies, led by new release Bangkok Dangerous (Lionsgate) with a meager $6.85 million, will gross an estimated $44.43 million or so this weekend. You have to go back to Sept. 21-23, 2001 to find a three-day frame that poky ($43.53 million led by the Keanu Reeves baseball pic Hardball). The only other weekend in this decade to perform that badly was Sept. 15-17, 2000 ($37.85 million led by another Keanu Reeves movie, The Watcher).

There may not have been another weekend this year that Cage's new Bangkok Dangerous could have won. The Pang Brothers have adapted their Hong Kong action hit of the same name for U.S. audiences, and it got out of the gates with just $2.3 million on its opening day, on the way to less than $7 million for three days. The opening will go down as the third-worst in the last decade for Nicolas Cage, with only Bringing Out the Dead ($6.19 million) and The Weather Man ($4.24 million) faring more poorly.

Is there an Academy Award winner who makes more bad movies than Nicolas Cage? How can an actor, who was so amazing in Leaving Las Vegas, so brilliant in Adaptation, unleash turkeys like Windtalkers, Captain Corelli's Mandolin, Lord of War, Next and The Wicker Man? Although Bangkok Dangerous did not officially screen for critics, early reviews are scathing (only 6 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). In fact, according to Rotten Tomatoes, Cage's last six films have received positive reviews, on average, from only 28 percent of critics.

The weekend's No. 2 movie will be Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount), with an estimated $1.92 million on its fourth Friday and a likely three-day of $6.43 million. That will push the Ben Stiller action movie satire to a domestic cume of almost $96 million by Monday morning. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) scored another $1.43 million Friday, and it should reach an estimated $5.25 million for the frame, good for third and a staggering new cume of $511.7 million. And Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox), starring Vin Diesel, mustered $1.23 million to start the weekend, which will translate to $4.1 million for the three-day, down 57 percent from its opening weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Bangkok Dangerous (Lionsgate) — $2.3 million, $868 PTA, $2.3M million cume
2. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.92 million, $557 PTA, $91.23 million cume
3. The House Bunny (Sony) — $1.51 million, $552 PTA, $32.6 million cume
4. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $1.43 million, $555 PTA, $507.91 million cume
5. Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $1.23 million, $359 PTA, $14.42 million cume
6. Traitor (Overture) — $1.15 million, $557 PTA, $14.14 million cume
7. Disaster Movie (Lionsgate) — $910,000, $344 PTA, $8.48 million cume
8. Death Race (Universal) — $815,000, $315 PTA, $27 million cume
9. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $790,000, $417 PTA, $134.37 million cume
10. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $575,000, $319 PTA, $82.33 million cume
11. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Co.) — $550,000, $766 PTA, $14.46 million cume
12. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — $350,000, $179 PTA, $31.41 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Bangkok Dangerous (Lionsgate) — $6.85 million, $2,586 PTA, $6.85M million cume
2. Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $6.43 million, $1,868 PTA, $95.74 million cume
3. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $5.25 million, $2,039 PTA, $511.73 million cume
4. The House Bunny (Sony) — $4.58 million, $1,674 PTA, $35.67 million cume
5. Babylon A.D. (20th Century Fox) — $4.1 million, $1,197 PTA, $17.29 million cume
6. Traitor (Overture) — $3.8 million, $1,842 PTA, $16.79 million cume
7. Disaster Movie (Lionsgate) — $2.92 million, $1,106 PTA, $10.49 million cume
8. Death Race (Universal) — $2.67 million, $1,032 PTA, $28.86 million cume
8. Mamma Mia! (Universal) — $2.67 million, $1,409 PTA, $136.25 million cume
10. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (The Weinstein Co.) — $1.99 million, $2,784 PTA, $15.91 million cume
11. Pineapple Express (Sony) — $1.8 million, $1,004 PTA, $83.56 million cume
12. Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Warner Bros.) — $1.24 million, $638 PTA, $32.3 million cume

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Posted at 11:33 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

poop coming out of my butt!

Posted by: poopcomingoutofmybutt | September 06, 2008 at 01:41 AM

i can't think of a more boring weekend than the weekend after labor day. coming in second place, the weekend after thanksgiving

Posted by: Bob | September 06, 2008 at 04:20 AM

I thought Lord of War was pretty good and got good reviews also.

Posted by: Mike | September 06, 2008 at 04:38 AM

There are no good movies coming this month until Eagle Eye

Posted by: salva | September 06, 2008 at 07:57 AM

Actually Mase I can name an Academy Award winner who makes worse movies than Nicolas Cage. His name is Cuba Gooding Jr

Posted by: Bob | September 06, 2008 at 09:27 AM

What are you talking about? Chill Factor, Radio, and Norbit are all at least 1/2 star movies.

Posted by: aadams | September 06, 2008 at 09:52 AM

are you kidding me aadams? Bob is right about cuba gooding jr being worse than nicolas cage. you failed to mention such classics like daddy day camp, snow dogs, and of course boat trip.

Posted by: matt | September 06, 2008 at 10:02 AM

WTF. Tropic Thunder will be at 19 Top5 points and VCB will be at 11 PTA points. And I didn't pick either in any slate.

Oh well, 5 t5 and 4 PTA is pretty good for $2.

Posted by: BanksIsDaFuture | September 06, 2008 at 02:45 PM

You can tell a bad nicolas cage movie by his hair -- the long haired NEXT which was awful and this one -- which is not bad, but nothing to rave about either -- an action movie with no style especially after this year's excellent Wanted.

Posted by: Jake | September 06, 2008 at 08:43 PM

Bangkok Dangerous is not Hong Kong movie. Instead it was Thai movie and all the time they speak thai not chinese!!

The Pang brothers themself made lots of thai movies as they are half thai-chinese..

FYI

Posted by: taedui | September 06, 2008 at 09:45 PM

Nothing against spike lee, but I think the worst preview of a movie I won't be seeing is Miracle at St. Anna. I literally cringe everytime I see it come on and can't wait for it to be over. Anyone have the same reaction? I literally have nothing against spike lee, but maybe whoever cut the preview made it so uninteresting.

Posted by: james | September 07, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Looks like Frozen River will win the PTA crown this week, according to BOM.

Posted by: Synestro | September 07, 2008 at 11:28 AM

I happen to stop by this week and saw "Traitor" with Don Cheadle and Guy Pierce and was pleasantly surprise at how good it was. Fine performance, intelligent script and some interesting twists make for a good suspenseful thriller. Not a lot of action but worth a look and deserves an audience so if you get a chance get out and see it.

Posted by: jdls08 | September 10, 2008 at 11:03 PM

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