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October 24, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: Can Your Studio Find 'Solace' in James Bond or Should You 'Escape 2 Africa?'

by Shrykespeare

Hello once again, and welcome back to Bard's Eye View, and believe you me, no one is happier to be returning to this little Podunk column than I am. I'm not going to get all maudlin about my recent brush with death, even though it's both a sobering and amusing thought to think of myself as a lumbering, shuffling, newly-risen Shaun of the Dead-style zombie, trying to sate my need for fresh brains while Mr. Pegg and Mr. Frost hurl their CD collection at my head. Still, thanks to all the Fantaverse for your well-wishes, I'll never forget it. (Weak grin.)

Even though I am on the mend, I'm thankful that I have only two movies to talk about today, but before I do (and I know I've gone on and on about this, but ...), it's weird what the Fantasy Moguls game has metamorphosed into just recently, hasn't it? I remember, only a month or two ago, when it seemed that Indie Jones was taking weeks off at a time because there were no limited-release films for him to talk about. Now, it seems, he's going to have to cast his cinematic net wider than ever before. While for me, on the other hand, the number of wide-release films on the slate remain relatively small.

In two weeks from now, I and the other Fantasy Moguls columnists will be giving our bi-yearly seasonal "Special Edition" columns to ring in the holiday (November-January) season. For now, however, I will be talking about two films that, barring something unprecedented or catastrophic, should be the two biggest moneymakers of the last two months of 2008: Namely, the latest animated romp from DreamWorks, and the much-anticipated return of timeless superspy James Bond. The chicken soup is starting to kick in now, so here we go!

In June 2005, DreamWorks put out their latest in a long line of animated films centered on animals. It had a terrific cast, a fair amount of big-city sardonic humor, and very catchy dance song that will probably always be connected to it in people's memories now. It was called Madagascar, and it centered on a bevy of creatures, of various species, residing at the Central Park Zoo in New York. Through a series of misadventures, four friends (and several stowaways) find themselves having to fend for themselves on the people-less shores of the island of Madagascar.

It managed over $60 million on its opening weekend (finishing just $10 million behind Star Wars juggernaut Revenge of the Sith), and left theaters five months later with $193 million and anticipation of a sequel. And now, three years later, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Nov. 7) rolls into theaters, and with it, the age-old question that always comes attached to sequels: Can it outdo its predecessor?

Now, let me say up-front that I loved Madagascar. I thought it was funny as hell, with a voice cast letter-perfect for their characters, and it has stood up to multiple repeat viewings (something that can't be said about many DreamWorks films, including the Shrek series). And speaking of the cast, let me run it down for you, as they are each and every one of them returning for Escape 2 Africa: Alex the Lion (Ben Stiller), perfectly content to play to the crowd and be spoon-fed his daily steaks, who must learn to contend with the actual jungle; his best friend Marty the Zebra (Chris Rock), who always dreamt of running free in unenclosed spaces; neurotic hypochondriac Melman the Giraffe (David Schwimmer); and the tough-but-lovable Gloria the Hippo (Jada Pinkett-Smith). And, of course, let's not forget the fast-thinking, faster-acting cadre of penguins who facilitate their own escape.

Also returning are supporting cast members Cedric the Entertainer, Andy Richter and, of course, Borat star Sacha Baron Cohen as the narcissistic Julien, king of the lemurs. (The late, great Bernie Mac is also given a voice credit: He plays — very slight spoiler, since Mac's character is the first to appear in the movie — Alex's old man, lion king Zuba.) Escape 2 Africa reunites the directing duo of Eric Darnell and Tom McGrath (also the voice of penguin honcho Skipper), who also helmed the original. From the looks of the trailer, the animation quality has only improved. In this story, the New York animals leave the shores of Madagascar in a beat-up plane in the hopes of returning home, but end up falling somewhat short of their objective, touching down on the savannah of mainland Africa, where the gang come face-to-face with others of their own species for the first time ever.

Fantasy Moguls predicts $210 million in total output for this title, which is leading off the month of November at full gallop. As I said, such an output would eclipse its predecessor, so is that projection realistic? After all, this is winter, not summer, where, it's true, blockbusters are less prevalent ... but interest still isn't as high. (At least it doesn't have Lucas's bloated trilogy-capper to contend with this time ...) Fantasy Moguls also predicts 13 Top 5 points, six PTA and a User Rating of 6.7, and I honestly don't have any reason to dicker with those numbers. It will obviously win its opening weekend, hopefully with a tally somewhere in the $60 million neighborhood that welcomed the original (and hopefully well ahead of the pace that the lame-as-hell DreamWorks outing Bee Movie set in this spot last year), then dip to No. 2 the following weekend, with perhaps one or two more weeks in the Top 5 after that.

There will be others coming soon after to steal the thunder of Escape 2 Africa (most notably the Disney animated feature Bolt, which arrives two weeks later), but if this past summer taught us anything, it's that two animated giants can coexist, given that both Kung Fu Panda and WALL*E were able to crank out more than $200 million in revenues despite both being put out in the same calendar month. $41 is a steep price to pay for this title in the October Ultimate leagues. It's true that both Bolt and Quantum of Solace will soak up less of your cabbage, but you always have to remember that every week brings another potential hit, which means potentially fewer good things for you the later your No. 1 hitter gets to the plate. $59 in Box Office, on the other hand? Too high. Go with High School Musical 3: Senior Year or Bolt, you'll get better mileage.

It's been 46 years since Ian Fleming's ultra-suave superspy James Bond made his big-screen debut. Made immortal by the talented and brogue-sporting Sean Connery, the character has been a staple of cinema ever since, with his debonair style, his nifty gadgets, his singular charm, and, of course, "the women." Though quite a few actors have taken the reins in the last half-century, Bond has always drawn a crowd, and probably always will.

I remember a time in the early part of this decade, however, that it seemed like this beloved character had become a relic, doomed to be shelved like a pro athlete playing well past his prime. Near the end of the Pierce Brosnan era, I remember a sense of melancholy coming over me, as I noticed that, rather than make entertaining stories, the studios seemed to be just playing out a contract, following the coveted Bond Movie Playbook step-by-step in the hopes of scoring some fast cash. The character just wasn't interesting anymore. But all that changed in 2006.

There had been much speculation about who was going to take Brosnan's place (Hugh Jackman and Ewan McGregor's names even came up, if you can believe it), so it was somewhat of a shock to most of show business when the role went to an actor named Daniel Craig, who had done very little outside the United Kingdom prior to that (Munich was the only thing I had seen him in). I was pleasantly surprised, given that they seemed to be reinventing the character as a rugged, ruthless tough guy, rather than just giving it off to another dandy in a tuxedo.

And instead of creating another Bond-ish script from scratch (they ran out of Fleming stories long ago), they decided to go back to the beginning, telling the story of his origins in Casino Royale, which came out in November 2006 to a lot of shocked gasps. It turns out Craig could not only hold his own as James Bond, but actually thrive in the part. With more emphasis on action (and, let's face it, more violence) than on gimmicks, Casino Royale was able to crank out $167 million, including $94 million over its first two weekends. (It's ironic to note that it fell just short of No. 1 on both those weekends, thanks to another animation behemoth, the surprise Warner Bros. hit Happy Feet.) Now, before you all pooh-pooh $167 million, consider this: no Bond movie, EVER, had made that much at the ticket counters.

I'm not comparing James Bond to Batman, but there is an apt analogy in place. When the newly-refurbished Batman Begins hit theaters a few summers ago with Christian Bale at the lead, few knew what to expect. I don't have to tell you about how well the sequel to THAT film did. I have to wonder, however ... now that Craig has established himself as a worthy successor to Bond's throne, will Quantum of Solace (Nov. 14) surpass what even Casino Royale did? Could it even become the first $200 million earner in Bond history?

Well, I'm not going to make that call just yet, because there's more to talk about. Another thing about Quantum (one of the most indecipherable titles in film history, IMHO) that you should know is that it seems to be the first actual Bond SEQUEL ever. Yes, the events will pick up pretty much where Royale ended, as Bond tries to track down the people behind the betrayal and death of the woman he loved, while endeavoring to stop a ruthless environmentalist (Mathieu Amalric) from taking over a country's water supply. Jeffrey Wright reprises his role as Felix Leiter, Dame Judy Dench returns as the tough-as-nails M, and Ukrainian beauty Olga Kurylenko (Hitman, Max Payne) steps in as the "beauty" in this latest chapter in the Bond saga (Brit Gemma Arterton is the requisite Bond babe B, a time-honored convention of the series essentially ignored in Casino Royale).

Fantasy Moguls predicts that Quantum of Solace, the 22nd Bond film ever, will become the highest-grossing of the bunch, earning $180 million, which I definitely think is possible. The timing seems just about perfect for another really hard-nosed spy thriller, and even though it seems to be Bond's lot in life (at least recently) to tangle with animated critter capers, I am truly looking forward to this one. I still would not spend $51 in the October Box Office leagues, however, for pretty much the same reason as Escape 2 Africa ... it's just too much. $37 in Ultimate, however, is a pretty good deal. It, too, will probably win its opening weekend, dipping no lower than No. 3 over the Thanksgiving holiday (when Bolt and Twilight come calling), and hanging around in the Top 10 until well into December. Eleven Top 5 seems right, as does five PTA (especially given the caliber of movies coming up), but I think that 7.0 User Rating estimate may be a bit low ... Casino Royale got 8.0 with well over 100,000 votes, after all.

Well, that will do it for me for yet another week. Please return next week, when I will forge ahead into November, and come face-to-pointy-toothed-face with the romantic obsession of women and girls everywhere. Thanks once again to all of you for your kind e-mails and Message Board postings regarding my health, as I hope to be doing this for a great long while to come.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare, bless his heart, is still alive and well despite a recent asthma-induced hospitalization. Makes you want to send a warm and fuzzy note to shrykespeare42@gmail.com, doesn't it?

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Posted at 07:41 AM in Advice and Analysis, Bard's Eye View, Shrykespeare | Permalink

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Comments

numbersix_99

Is Quantum the first sequel? Didn't Diamonds are Forever continue on from On Her Majesty's Secret Service with Bond getting revenge on his wife's murderer?

Good analysis, btw, I completely agree with your thoughts on Madagascar 2. I can't see it making 210mil, but 175+ is possible.

Posted by: numbersix_99 | October 24, 2008 at 08:03 AM

J.I.

All three of the computer-animated sequels have made more than their predecessors.

Ice Age 2, Shrek 2, and Toy Story 2

Posted by: J.I. | October 24, 2008 at 01:25 PM

JT

I think Madagascar II will disappoint... greatly. I see it doing Bee Movie numbers, not much higher than that. A combination of factors:
A) Less desirable date
B) Competition from HSM3 two weeks before and Bolt two weeks after
C) With the economy being the way it is, families will be going to less movies in fear of them costing too much (I actually rung up some 30, 40, and even 50 dollar transactions over the summer working; that'll scare people off). I truly think that parents will tell their kids to pick the movies they want to see, and the kiddies will go the Disney route.

I mean, honestly, I'm a CGI nut, and I'd much rather see Bolt than M:E2A.

Posted by: JT | October 24, 2008 at 06:48 PM

JT

I should elaborate on that last comment; those numbers were from the concession stand alone. So with the usual family of 4, tickets are 30-40 and food is another 30-40... then there are the games the kids will desperately want to play... I've seen larger families drop close to 100 bucks per movie.

Posted by: JT | October 24, 2008 at 06:49 PM

Synestro

Ummm, six is right. Diamonds began at the graveside of Bond's wife who was killed off in OHMSS. Glad I wasn't the only one to catch this as it would be hard to prove. A lot of people don't even realize that Bond got married, granted it was George Lazenby's Bond which may attribute to the lack of general knowledge.

Posted by: Synestro | October 25, 2008 at 11:26 AM

Synestro

Edit: Live & Let Die not Diamonds are Forever.

Posted by: Synestro | October 26, 2008 at 03:46 AM

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