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October 07, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW: Is It Better to Graduate from 'High School' or to Survive Being Chained to a Nuclear Reactor While Sitting Naked Atop a Nest of Red Ants (Because Life Is Too Precious to Waste, or Something Like That)?

by Shrykespeare

Hello once again, and welcome back to Bard's Eye View. In this fall season, when the colors turn to orange, yellow and brown, this is the place to come to figure out which wide-release films will make the most green, as well as which ones will leave you feeling decidedly blue. Such is autumn ... and with the newly-launched October leagues underway complete with their all-encompassing rosters, this makes picking the best of the best extremely tough.

I mean, seriously, kudos to Fantasy Moguls for expanding not only their roster size but the scope of the game. This past spring and summer, it was fairly easy (well, easier, anyway) to pick a good slate: There were only 40-50 titles to choose from; there were many obvious hits, many obvious misses and, though there were some surprises (both positive and negative), many players ended up picking most of the same things. With over 70 films to pick from now, however, that's all changed. God help us! But soldier on we must, and I'm here to talk about the films of October 24, so, without further ado ...

Many decades ago, it was almost commonplace to have successful Broadway plays turned into full-length feature films. The Rodgers and Hammerstein plays South Pacific, Oklahoma!, and The King and I got a second life on the big screen in the 1950s, and Lerner and Loewe's popular My Fair Lady, Brigadoon and Camelot made the same transition the 1960s. The current decade seems to have embraced this timeless art form once again, making a Best Picture winner out of Chicago in 2002 and smash hits out of Hairspray and Mamma Mia! in each of the last two summers.

But it's quite possible that no musical, or series of musicals, has ever skewed toward the younger generation more than High School Musical has. When director Kenny Ortega unveiled his made-for-TV project back in 2006, it became an instant juggernaut. Its premiere broke a Disney Channel record (at the time) with a whopping 7.7 million viewers, and when the DVD was released, it sold 1.2 million copies in its first SIX DAYS. Holy moly. This was followed by a mega-successful concert tour, and a second made-for-TV installment that came out in 2007.

Now, however, it seems the small screen is simply not equipped to hold this merchandising blitz in any longer, as High School Musical 3: Senior Year steamrolls its way into theaters. All of the main characters and actors are back, including rising star Zac Efron, along with Vanessa Anne Hudgens, Ashley Tisdale and the rest of the Wildcats gang. I won't bother with the details of the plot ... needless to say, if you plan on seeing this film, you're probably already much more well-versed than I am, and, if not, well, just step out of its way.

To put this in perspective: When the similarly youth-oriented Disney juggernaut Hannah Montana leaped to the big screen with its Best of Both Worlds concert movie this past February, it managed a $31.1 million opening weekend, destroying its competition in spite of the fact that it debuted in only 683 theaters. It never really expanded much more beyond that, and it left three months later with $65 million earned. And HSM3 is going to be bowing on MUCH more screens than that, from what I've heard.

Make no mistake: This WILL be the highest-grossing film of the fall season. It might even rival some of the upcoming winter giants like Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Quantum of Solace. I've made a nasty habit of underestimating both teen-hype movies and musicals in the past, and I mean to reverse that trend, as of now. I predict it will open with around $55 million in its first three days, and easily hold on for No. 1 one week later. It will finish with around 14 Top 5 points, eight PTA, and around $175 million when all is said and done. Its User Rating won't help you much ... I'd say around 5.0 (which is consistent with the first two chapters in this saga, which is due to go back to the small screen next year with Part Four).

As a pick for your slates, much like Tropic Thunder, this one is all over the map. It's only $19 in the September Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues (you'll have to pony up $30 in October), which makes this title a steal on the point of usury. And it's an even better deal in Box Office, where it'll cost you a mere $35 (compared to Quantum of Solace's $51 and Escape 2 Africa's $59) There will be other moneymakers in December, but if you want to squeeze the most bucks out of your top pick, it'll be one of these three that you must pick. And, given the prices, High School Musical 3 seems the obvious choice.

In case you hadn't noticed, Halloween is this month, and if you've been paying attention for the last few years, you know what that means: It's time for another Saw picture. Much like the 1980s, where it seemed like every fall we were treated to another slice-'n'-dice horror-fest featuring Jason Voorhees or Freddie Krueger, this series of films has built a considerable following, drawing in its viewers with innovative characters and twists.

At least, that was back at the beginning, when the original Saw received critical acclaim for its creators, James Wan and Leigh Whannell (who have long since moved on to other projects). The story, about a serial killer named Jigsaw, who "tested" those he deemed unworthy of life with a chance to, as he so eloquently puts it, "Live or die, make the choice," has developed a substantial fan-base, as evidenced by the fact that the first three films in the series pulled in over $220 million domestically.

Much like with the Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises way back when, however, one wonders just how much new ground can be covered when those Roman numerals after the title climb ever higher. Case in point, Saw IV managed only $63 million last year (down from $80 million for Saw III), and now that Saw V is coming, how much more enthusiasm do horror fans have left for this series?

Sorry if I'm spoiling anything for anybody, but pretty much everyone who started this series is now dead, including Jigsaw and his "disciple" Amanda. A new character emerged in Saw IV to take on Jigsaw's legacy, however, a forensics expert named Hoffman (Costas Mandylor) ... which means the fun can begin anew. This installment also co-stars Tobin Bell and Shawnee Smith (presumably in flashbacks), as well as Julie Benz (Rambo), Meagan Good (The Love Guru) and Scott Patterson (Gilmore Girls).

Obviously, this one's pursuing a completely different crowd than will be filling theaters for High School Musical 3, and it may even benefit if there is any spillover. Fantasy Moguls predicts four Top 5, four PTA, a rating of 6.0 and $57 million, which sounds about right to me, although I would probably estimate closer to six or seven Top 5 points myself. Saw V's second Friday will be Halloween night, and I don't look for that much competition from another horror flick, The Haunting of Molly Hartley. Once the calendar hits November, however, sale of tickets will drop like a rock, so be warned. I think it's a fair pick for $15 in Ultimate leagues, but $16 in Box Office may be pushing it. You could take a gamble on Australia for the same amount of dough, if you're daring enough.

It was almost exactly one year ago that We Own the Night, a family cop drama came out to mostly-lukewarm reviews and a fair amount of cinematic indifference. That film, which stars Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg as brothers who wind up on opposite sides of the law (Wahlberg and the boys's daddy, played by Robert Duvall, are cops), made only $27 million but garnered a 7.1 User Rating. And despite the fact that Pride and Glory, 2008's well-cast cop drama, is coming out slightly closer to the winter season, I don't expect the reception to be any warmer.

The main difference between Pride and Glory and We Own the Night is that both of the brothers (actually, brothers-in-law) are cops this time. They are played by Edward Norton (coming off a successful dip into Marvel-dom in The Incredible Hulk) and Colin Farrell (whose last outing was earlier this year with indie darling In Bruges), and the patriarch of their family is played by Jon Voight.

The story: Ray Tierney (Norton) is put in charge of an investigation into an incident involving multiple shootings, shootings that may have been carried out by cops. Further digging uncovers a conspiracy of corruption, and right at the center of it is Ray's brother-in-law Jimmy Egan (Farrell). If you've seen the trailer, it's fairly easy to imagine that at some point, Ray is going to have to choose between duty and family.

This film has been postponed at least once from a prior date (possibly more, I can't recall) and, honestly, it looks like the kind of drama that I would expect to find in a Law & Order episode. Despite the notoriety that Norton has achieved, I can't see Pride and Glory doing much more than We Own the Night  did in this very crowded fall lineup. (Another recent parallel: This spring's equally-well-cast Street Kings.) Fantasy Moguls predicts no Top 5, no PTA and a middling rating of 6.5, which, if that's the case, makes me wonder why anyone would want it, even for $6. And $8 in Box Office really doesn't seem worth it.

Props Department: Congratulations, AGAIN, go to ashkul88 for his victory in the just completed July Regulars league The Black Adder. This is his second victory in fourth months and his fourth all-time, which leads all others. Well done, dude! (Yours truly fell just short, coming in second.) Congrats also go to bobbin3000 for his razor-thin victory over leestu in the Box Office league Weapons of Choice. And finally, kudos must also go to undeadmonkey, silversurfer19, annyonggob888 and RedRaider, who all took first place in the various Super League tournaments that just ended. The final round of all tournaments has just started, and it's going to be a dogfight from here on out in order to determine a champion!

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Please return next week, when I will be talking about the movies coming on the last Friday of October, which, in an interesting quirk of the calendar, happens to be Halloween night. Seth Rogen and Elizabeth Banks play the title roles in Zack and Miri Make a Porno, as two platonic friends who decide to make money by directing (and starring in) an adult film. (Zack and Miri is directed by none other than Kevin "Silent Bob" Smith.) And it wouldn't be Halloween without another horror flick, in this case The Haunting of Molly Hartley, starring Haley Bennett as a girl trying to escape her horrifying past ... with terrifying results.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare wrote this column despite his noggin being encased in a block of ice. He could free himself from the ice by sticking his head inside a blast furnace, except that the heat from the blast furnace would peel the skin (ewww) from his neck and shoulders! And the ice is made from hydrochloric acid!! Oh no!!! (This will teach him to not appreciate life!!!!) Is he doomed? Tell him how to escape at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.

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Comments

Saw V is average-priced, but has a 25% chance of tanking from boredom of the franchise, so its a semi-safe pick and I did choose Australia over it (in BO, I chose neither in ULT).

I agree on Pride & Glory... Why would you want it unless something big (large marketing campaign?) happens in the next couple of weeks.

HSM is a must have in BO, I just worry about the IMDB considering what happened to my Chihuahua flick's rating this weekend (at the hands of people that didn't see it, I assume). The same people could easily turn it into a 3.? rating as well.

Posted by: W | October 07, 2008 at 09:30 AM

$175 million is a little high in my opinion. Plus I imagine that it will drop more than 60% in the second weekend.

Posted by: Buscemi | October 07, 2008 at 11:16 AM

The cat is out of the bag now. HSM 3 is a must own. On the topic of Saw, even if it does do it's usual numbers, it's effect will be muted by the Disney Behemoth. Same goes for all the PTA picks that weekend. HSM 3 is a game changer. I actually have it at 14 Top 5 points after 3 weeks.

Posted by: JackO | October 07, 2008 at 03:47 PM

$175 million seems just right. It could even hit $200 million.

That's weird that the thrid one will be in theaters and then THE NEXT YEAR the fourth one will come out on T.V.

Posted by: J.I. | October 07, 2008 at 03:51 PM

i wouldn't be surprised to see much more than 55 million. according to boxofficeprophets, high school musical 2 had 33 million viewers. if hsm2 was released in theaters, it would have made much more than the dark knight's opening weekend. now thats amazing

Posted by: matt | October 07, 2008 at 07:14 PM

Somebody get the Shrykester an ice pick! And someone with a very, very steady hand ...

Posted by: Banjo the Woodchuck | October 07, 2008 at 08:25 PM

HSM 2 WILL HAVE NEVER MADE 158 IF IT HAD PLAYED IN THEATERS. HSM 3 WILL OPEN BIG BUT NO1 WILL SEE IT ON ITS SECOND WEEK, NO PARENTS WILL TAKE THEIR KIDS WILL ATLEAST NOT ALL OF THEM. I SEE A 50+ AND A 20 MILLION SECOND WEEK IT WILL NEVER REACH 175 IT WILL BARLEY CRACK 100 MILLON

Posted by: salva | October 08, 2008 at 07:10 PM

i'd have to disagree with you salva. are you really that ignorant? batman is to comic book fans as high school musical is to teenage girls and little kids. this series is bigger than you think and i'm pretty sure it would have made big bucks if hsm2 was released in theaters. hsm3 will go beyond 100 million and it could crack 200 million but i don't see it making it past 300 million.

Posted by: matt | October 09, 2008 at 07:57 AM

Salva, did you just say that a movie would open to $50+ million, but would barely crack $100 million? That's never happened before.

Posted by: J.I. | October 09, 2008 at 02:02 PM

Lets just put it this way movie will open big and finish of small with 105 to 110 million

Posted by: salva | October 09, 2008 at 05:56 PM

salva you still are underestimating this movie! i will say i told you so when this goes beyond 105-110 million mark

Posted by: matt | October 11, 2008 at 05:50 AM

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