WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'BHC' Dogs the Competition w/$17.55M; 'Quarantine' ($14.2M) Squeaks Past 'Body of Lies' ($13.12M) for Second Place; 'Eagle Eye' Still Soaring at No. 4 w/$11M; Guy Ritchie's 'RockNRolla' and Mike Leigh's 'HGL' in PTA Dead Heat!
by Steve Mason
Steve Mason is now on Facebook.
SUNDAY 12:00 p.m. (Pacific):
STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $17.51 million, $5,422 PTA, $532.54 million cume
2. NEW Quarantine (Sony) — $14.2 million, $5,770 PTA, $14.2 million cume
3. NEW Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $13.12 million, $4,841 PTA, $13.612 million cume
4. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $11.01 million, $3,048 PTA, $70.55 million cume
5. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $6.5 million, $2,685 PTA, $20.81 million cume
6. NEW The Express (Universal) — $4.73 million, $1,685 PTA, $4.73 million cume
7. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $4.61 million, $1,790 PTA, $32.36 million cume
8. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $3.34 million, $2,589 PTA, $10.88 million cume
9. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $3.32 million, $2,752 PTA, $5.62 million cume
10. NEW City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $3.2 million, $1,583 PTA, $3.2 million cume
11. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $3.18 million, $3,645 PTA, $16.92 million cume
12. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $2.65 million, $1,195 PTA, $36.19 million cume
13. Religulous (Lionsgate) — $2.2 million, $3,873 PTA, $6.7 million cume
14. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $2.17 million, $1,549 PTA, $55.25 million cume
15. An American Carol (Vivendi) — $1.5 million, $928 PTA, $6.08 million cume
16. Flash of Genius (Universal) — $862,000, $785 PTA, $3.73 million cume
* Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) — $464,000, $17,185 PTA, $882,000 cume
* NEW Billy Graham: The Early Years (Rocky Mountain) -$200,000, $709 PTA, $200,000 cume
* NEW RockNRolla (Warner Bros.) — $141,000, $20,143 PTA, $141,000 cume
* NEW Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) — $80,000, $20,000 PTA, $80,000 cume
* NEW Ashes of Time Redux (Sony Classics) — $22,000, $4,400 PTA, $22,000 cume
SATURDAY 12:00 p.m. (Pacific): Quarantine (Sony), Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) and Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) were all a bit stronger than I reported last night, and both Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) and The Express (Universal) were both somewhat weaker than my sources indicated.
The low-budget Sony/Screen Gems scarefest Quarantine hit $5.35 million, and it is possible that it will finish No. 2 for the weekend, ahead of Body of Lies. Meanwhile, the Ridley Scott-directed Lies only scored $4.35 million, and now seems on course for just $13.6 million. Here are my revised three-day estimates.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $18 million, $5,594 PTA, $53 million cume
2. NEW Quarantine (Sony) — $14 million, $5,707 PTA, $14 million cume
3. NEW Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $13.6 million, $5,019 PTA, $13.6 million cume
4. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $10.94 million, $3,028 PTA, $70.44 million cume
5. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $5.82 million, $2,405 PTA, $20.1 million cume
6. NEW The Express (Universal) — $4.85 million, $1,730 PTA, $4.85 million cume
7. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $4.49 million, $1,746 PTA, $32.25 million cume
8. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $3.65 million, $3,026 PTA, $5.95 million cume
9. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $3.51 million, $2,725 PTA, $11.06 million cume
10. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $3.25 million, $3,714 PTA, $16.98 million cume
11. NEW City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $3.4 million, $1,682 PTA, $3.4 million cume
12. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $2.72 million, $1,226 PTA, $36.26 million cume
13. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $2.17 million, $1,549 PTA, $55.25 million cume
14. Religulous (Lionsgate) — $2.01 million, $3,548 PTA, $6.51 million cume
15. An American Carol (Vivendi) — $1.47 million, $912 PTA, $6.05 million cume
16. Flash of Genius (Universal) — $835,000, $760 PTA, $3.71 million cume
FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): When I read the novel Body of Lies, by Washington Post political columnist David Ignatius, my first though was not, "That's a movie." Instead, my reaction was, "Can U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East really be that wrongheaded and misguided?" That may be why the new film adaptation has had trouble getting traction with audiences in prerelease tracking surveys, and why its opening weekend is softer than you might expect.
Despite the star power of Oscar winner Russell Crowe and three-time Academy Award nominee Leonardo DiCaprio, Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) has managed just a lukewarm $4.85 million on Friday (No. 2 for the day), and that will translate to just $15 million or so for the weekend, behind Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney). The reviews are just so-so for Body of Lies (54 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and this one will need to rely on word-of-mouth to hit a decent domestic number. At the moment, however, competing studios are saying that the ceiling seems to be in the $45 million-$50 million range.
With a stellar pedigree, including a script by Oscar winner William Monahan (The Departed), two big movie stars (let's call it two-and-a-half, since Russell Crowe gained a reported 50 pounds to play this role) and Ridley Scott at the helm, coming off of his commercial and critical success with American Gangster, how could Body of Lies go wrong? The problem is not pedigree. It is subject matter.
Sir Ridley's new spy thriller is the latest attempt by Hollywood to say something important — to say anything at all, really — about the war on terror. Body of Lies is actually strongly outperforming efforts like last year's A Mighty Heart ($3.9 million opening), Rendition ($4 million opening) and Lions For Lambs ($6.7 million). Setting aside James Bond and Maxwell Smart, the two most successful post-9/11 espionage thrillers have been 2007's excellent Peter Berg-directed The Kingdom ($17.1 million opening, $47.5 million cume) and this year's Vantage Point ($22.8 million opening, $72.2 million cume). The difference here is that The Kingdom had a strong, conventional narrative and the Rashomon-style puzzle-work narrative of Vantage Point was actually fun. Moviegoers have shown less interest in what I am sure are more realistic espionage scenarios, like the one played out in Lies.
Let's face it. With the Dow down 18 percent this week, the biggest one-week drop in Wall Street history, ticket buyers are not necessarily looking for a complex, arcane, espionage thriller. With the country arguing over presidential politics and life seeming very, very serious, a lot of people would rather see a funny movie about a dog in a purse.
Speaking of which, it's safe to say, that somewhere at Disney, plans are underway for Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2. Chloe the chihuahua is a movie star, and her legs are longer than they look. Beverly Hills Chihuahua has added another $4.5 million on its second Friday (No. 3 for the day), and the target is $17.55 million for the three-day, which will give it a second consecutive weekend win, down just 40 percent from opening, and a new 10-day cume of $52.5 million.
Sony's Quarantine, an R-rated horror flick about a rare strain of rabies in a confined apartment building, with lots of shaky camera work and plenty of screaming courtesy of Exorcism of Emily Rose star Jennifer Carpenter, has apparently eked out an impressive Friday win with an estimated $4.9 million on opening day. It will most likely play out the weekend as a standard horror film, and should finish at No. 3 with about $12.6 million for a good, solid, low budget hit.
Holdovers Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) and Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) will round out the Top 5 for the weekend. The Shia LaBeouf high-tech thriller snagged another $2.85 million on Friday and will reach an estimated $9.5 million by Monday morning for a new domestic cume of $69 million. Meanwhile, Nick & Norah managed $2.2 million on its second Friday, and that should spell $6.49 million for the three-day and a 10-day cume of $20.8 million.
The new football movie The Express (Universal) is proving to be a little too "been there, done that" for moviegoers. The heartfelt story of Ernie Davis, the first African-American to win the Heisman Trophy features Harlem-born, Brooklyn-raised former Amherst College football player-turned-actor Rob Brown as Davis, and sports movie veteran Dennis Quaid as former Syracuse coach Ben Schwartzwalder. Nice cast, but the pic still fumbled on opening day, with a disappointing $1.8 million. No big yardage for this one at the box office, as The Express will struggle to a $5.5 million opening weekend and a sixth-place finish.
The other new wide opener is the hardly-screened-for-critics City of Ember (20th Century Fox). This odd family fantasy movie from Walden Media and Playtone (Tom Hanks's company) features a lot of talent including Oscar nominees Bill Murray (Lost in Translation), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Secrets & Lies), and Oscar winners Tim Robbins (Mystic River) and Martin Landau (Ed Wood), but it is a non-starter after a meager $1 million take on Friday. The barely-burning Ember will muster no more than $3.4 million in the frame.
The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) expanded to just over 1,200 playdates, but has failed to score big. The Keira Knightley-Ralph Fiennes period costume drama delivered a $911 Per Theatre Average on Friday for $1.1 million. Directed by Saul Bibb, the well-reviewed movie will generate only $3.35 million or so on its first wide weekend.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quarantine (Sony) — $4.9 million, $1,991 PTA, $4.9 million cume
2. NEW Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $4.85 million, $1,790 PTA, $4.85 million cume
3. Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $4.5 million, $1,398 PTA, $39.53 million cume
4. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $2.85 million, $789 PTA, $62.34 million cume
5. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $2.2 million, $909 PTA, $16.5 million cume
6. NEW The Express (Universal) — $1.8 million, $641 PTA, $1.8 million cume
7. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $1.25 million, $486 PTA, $29 million cume
8. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $1.1 million, $911 PTA, $3.39 million cume
9. NEW City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $1 million, $495 PTA, $1 million cume
10. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $950,000, $736PTA, $8.49 million cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $17.55 million, $5,454 PTA, $52.58 million cume
2. NEW Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $15.03 million, $5,548 PTA, $15.03 million cume
3. NEW Quarantine (Sony) — $12.6 million, $5,120 PTA, $12.6 million cume
4. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $9.5 million, $2,629 PTA, $69 million cume
5. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $6.49 million, $2,681 PTA, $20.8 million cume
6. NEW The Express (Universal) — $5.5 million, $1,959 PTA, $5.5 million cume
7. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $3.87 million, $1,506 PTA, $31.63 million cume
8. NEW City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $3.4 million, $1,682 PTA, $3.4 million cume
9. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $3.35 million, $2,775 PTA, $5.64 million cume
10. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $3.25 million, $2,526 PTA, $10.8 million cume
There's another post-9/11 spy thriller: Syriana, which cumed $50m.
Posted by: AC | October 11, 2008 at 05:23 AM
Mase, just to let you know that it's spelled Chihuahua. Not Chihauhau.
I can't believe Quarantine came in #1 for the day. That is pretty impressive.
Posted by: Scott | October 11, 2008 at 05:26 AM
I suppose it makes sense for Quarantine to be #1 on Friday; it's a scenario a lot of us didn't see coming. Maybe if American Gangster hadn't been such a blockbuster, we wouldn't have expected Body of Lies to be impressive.
It's sad to say that none of these films (Beverly Hills, Body, Quarantine, Eagle, Nick & Norah) are quality flicks at all.
Posted by: Squirrel | October 11, 2008 at 06:54 AM
Hey, Squirrel, don't go that far. Nick and Norah pulled a 72 on the Tomatometer, and Quarantine is getting surprisingly good early reviews (The Globe slammed it, but that's a combination of the "had-to-pay-for-my-ticket" and "oh I have motion sickness so I hated it" factors).
Posted by: JT | October 11, 2008 at 09:55 AM
I would say that maybe those movies aren't quality for you, but for other demographics--Children, horror fans, etc--they are the bees knees. I look forward to seeing Quarantine and Eagle Eye when they come to DVD, though I'm sure Eagle Eye will dissapoint.
Posted by: W | October 11, 2008 at 10:46 AM
Saw "Appaloosa" this afternoon and it was a fine western with excellent performances. IMHO, the best film thus far in this year dismal output of Hollywood films. Surely deserves buffo boxoffice but it is not getting it thus far.
Posted by: jdls08 | October 11, 2008 at 10:20 PM
i don't know how big a budget body of lies has but i hereby christen thee a disappointment
Posted by: Matt | October 12, 2008 at 06:22 AM
Wow, did not realize that in just 10 days, BHC is already the second highest grossing film of all time. Mase has it at a $532.54 cume through today. Shouldn't be too long until it eclipses Titanic.
On another note, saw Apaloosa yesterday, and what a snooze fest. Excellent performances by Harris, Mortenson and Irons,(They couldn't find anyone better than Zellweger to sleepwalk through her role?) but the pacing and the directing were just awful. Shouldn't even be mentioned in the same paragraph as Unforgiven let alone the same sentence. Hell, it wasn't even as good as 3:10 to Yuma.
Whoever said Nick and Nora wasn't a quality flick misspoke in my opinion. While the wife and I may have been the oldest ones in the theater, we both still thoroughly enjoyed it. It was the "Some Kind of Wonderful" for today's generation, and the acting and the soundtrack were both top notch.
Posted by: Keyser Soze | October 12, 2008 at 05:31 PM