FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): Max Payne (20th Century Fox) has successfully made the often-treacherous jump from video game to the big screen, grabbing an estimated $6.75 million on its opening day. That will mean a likely $18.5 million opening weekend, which is decent news for Mark Wahlberg and Fox.

I received advance word from a couple of reputable critics that Max Payne is not very good (one called it Max Payne-ful), and, as it turns out, 20th Century Fox was smart to embargo reviews until today. The 16 percent Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes does not bode well for word-of-mouth, but the movie will manage the sixth-best opening for a video game movie franchise and the all-time No. 9 opening for any video game adaptation.

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR VIDEO GAME ADAPTATIONS
1. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider — $47.73 million opening, $131.1 million cume
2. Pokemon: The First Movie — $31 million opening, $85.7 million cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction — $23.7 million opening, $50.6 million cume
4. Mortal Kombat — $23.2 million opening, $70.4 million cume
5. Resident Evil: Apocalypse — $23 million opening, $51.2 million cume
6. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life — $21.7 million opening, $65.6 million cume
7. Silent Hill — $20.1 million opening, $46.9 million cume
8. Pokemon: The Movie 2000 — $19.5 million opening, $43.7 million cume
9. Max Payne — $18.5 million opening, $18.5 million cume (Estimated)
10. Resident Evil — $17.7 million opening, $40.1 million cume

Competing studios project that, with this three-day start, Max Payne could reach a total domestic take of something in the $43 million-$46 million range, but given its healthy budget and Wahlberg's asking price, this does not have the feel of a franchise.

Overall, the artist formerly known as Marky Mark has yet to solidify his reputation as a box-office draw. The Departed, which seemed to be his breakout role, earning him his first Academy Award nomination, led to three straight movies that have disappointed to varying degrees: Shooter ($14.5 million opening, $47 million cume), We Own the Night ($10.8 million opening, $28.5 million cume) and The Happening ($30.5 million opening, $64.5M cume). Max Payne represents Wahlberg's all-time seventh-best opening:

ALL-TIME BEST OPENINGS FOR MARK WAHLBERG
1. Planet of the Apes — $68.5 million opening, $180 million cume
2. The Perfect Storm — $41.3 million opening, $182.6 million cume
3. The Happening — $30.5 million opening, $64.5 million cume
4. The Departed — $26.8 million opening, $132.3 million cume
5. Four Brothers — $21.1 million opening, $74.5 million cume
6. The Italian Job — $19.4 million opening, $106.1 million cume
7. Max Payne — $18.5 million opening, $18.5 million cume (Estimated)
8. Invincible — $17 million opening, $57.8 million cume
9. Three Kings — $15.8 million opening, $60.6 million cume
10. Shooter — $14.5 million opening, $47 million cume

This one seems to be a step in the right direction, although, in my opinion, he would be smart to choose some lighter material. After his quirky role in The Departed, he has followed with a string of very grim movies. Just because he is a serious actor, it does not mean he must stick with purely serious movies. For my money, his best performance is still Dirk Diggler in Boogie Nights, which allowed him to have some fun.

Much to the chagrin of guardians of the George W. Bush legacy, Oliver Stone has scored a nice little hit with his W. (Lionsgate), opening with about 2,000 playdates. With Barbra Streisand's son-in-law, Josh Brolin, in the titular role, the pseudo-biopic has grabbed an estimated $4.3 million on opening day, and that should translate to a solid $12.9 million for the three-day.

Liberals say that Stone's portrait of "43" is too sympathetic. Conservatives consider it rude liberal propaganda. I think it is a fascinating film experiment. A movie about a wildly unpopular sitting President with some of the very best actors playing out the lowlights and blunders of the past eight years while a fierce, partisan battle for the presidency is being waged swing-state-by-swing-state?

Leave it to Oliver Stone who, love him or hate him, has a knack for tapping into the cultural Zeitgeist. Watching his 1987 classic Wall Street in the context of 2008's financial meltdown is almost surreal. Everything that Gordon Gekko celebrated has essentially led to the demise of some of the most important institutions in America. That's the magic of Stone.

This "film experiment" is not, however, without precedent. A decade ago, Mike Nichols directed Primary Colors starring John Travolta as a successful southern-fried governor and president candidate named Jack Stanton (a clear Bill Clinton stand-in), with Emma Thompson as his stiff, reluctantly supportive wife, Susan (Hillary). Based on a button-pushing roman a clef plunked out by Anonymous (later revealed to have been former Newsweek political correspondent Joe Klein) and adapted by Elaine May, Nichols's movie wrapped a lot of truth in its fictional guise. Now along comes a so-called biographical film filled with, depending on who you talk to, a lot of fiction. Primary Colors opened with a nearly identical $12 million and went on to gross $39 million domestic. I suspect that W. will do slightly better, reaching the $41 million-$44 million range; a Golden Globe and/or Oscar push for Brolin could drive it to $50 million.

Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) added another $3.2 million on Friday (No. 4 for the day), and with its usual massive weekend matinee performances, it will surge to an impressive third-place finish in its third weekend. It will be neck-and-neck with W., but I think it will lose by a whisker with an estimated $12.8 million (although the battle for No. 2 could reasonably go either way).

The film adaptation of the 1960s-era Sue Monk Kidd bestselling novel The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) is the biggest surprise of the weekend. This "chick flick" is working in a big way, coaxing $4 million in opening day sales, and it will buzz to about $12.4 million. With only 1,600 or so screens, this generally well-reviewed film will reach a nearly $7,800 Per Theatre Average.

The news is disastrous for Summit's Judd Apatow-style R-rated comedy Sex Drive. Without any real star power, unless you count James Marsden (X-Men, Hairspray) and Seth Green (Without a Paddle), Sex Drive had a limp Friday of $1.1 million and it will sputter to a mere $3 million by Monday morning. At least Green won't be tempted to abandon his brilliant, top-rated Cartoon Network series Robot Chicken to focus more exclusively on his silver-screen career.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $6.75 million, $1,999 PTA, $6.75 million cume
2. NEW W. (Lionsgate) — $4.3 million, $2,118 PTA, $4.3 million cume
3. NEW The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $4 million, $2,514 PTA, $4 million cume
4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $3.2 million, $988 PTA, $61.06 million cume
5. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $2.37 million, $873 PTA, $19.97 million cume
6. Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.2 million, $661 PTA, $76.19 million cume
7. Quarantine (Sony) — $2 million, $812 PTA, $20.38 million cume
8. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $1.18 million, $464 PTA, $24 million cume
9. NEW Sex Drive (Summit) — $1.1 million, $454 PTA, $1.1 million cume
10. The Express (Universal) — $875,000, $311 PTA, $6.9 million cume
11. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $850,000, $402 PTA, $35.06 million cume
12. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $750,000, $829 PTA, $18.8 million cume
13. Apaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $690,000, $545 PTA, $12.9 million cume
14. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $685,000, $568 PTA, $7.7 million cume
15. Religulous (Lionsgate) — $455,000, $843 PTA, $8.07 million cume
16. City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $445,000, $220 PTA, $4.64 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $18.5 million, $5,480 PTA, $18.5 million cume
2. NEW W. (Lionsgate) — $12.9 million, $6,355 PTA, $12.9 million cume
3. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $12.8 million, $3,952 PTA, $70.66 million cume
4. NEW The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $12.4 million, $7,794 PTA, $12.4 million cume
5. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $7.46 million, $2.751 PTA, $25.06 million cume
6. Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $7.41 million, $2,229 PTA, $81.4 million cume
7. Quarantine (Sony) — $5.7 million, $2,314 PTA, $24.08 million cume
8. Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $3.55 million, $1,584 PTA, $26.35 million cume
9. NEW Sex Drive (Summit) — $3 million, $1,239 PTA, $3 million cume
10. The Express (Universal) — $2.84 million, $1,012 PTA, $8.86 million cume
11. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $2.76 million, $1,306 PTA, $36.97 million cume
12. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $2.43 million, $2,693 PTA, $20.48 million cume
13. The Duchess (Paramount Vantage) — $2.32 million, $1,930 PTA, $9.33 million cume
14. Apaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $2.31 million, $1,827 PTA, $14.6 million cume
15. Religulous (Lionsgate) — $1.63 million, $3,033 PTA, $9.26 million cume
16. City of Ember (20th Century Fox) — $1.51 million, $748 PTA, $5.7 million cume