Still, it's noteworthy that HSM3 represents my own personal all-time worst three-day projection. I released a $55 million first-weekend estimate Friday, and the result was $42 million. That's a full 25 percent too high. Predictions and projections remain a "black art." No matter how long I do it, I can still be completely blindsided. Everything else I wrote Friday night was basically right. (Although, Saw V did get just over $30.5 million, as opposed to my $29 million projection — or maybe not. We'll know for sure sometime on Monday afternoon.)

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $42 million, $11,593 PTA, $42 million cume
2. NEW Saw V (Lionsgate) — $30.5 million, $9,967 PTA, $30.5 million cume
3. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $7.6 million, $2,248 PTA, $29.66 million cume
4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $6.91 million, $2,168 PTA, $78.14 million cume
5. NEW Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $6.32 million, $2,447 PTA, $6.32 million cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $5.93 million, $3,641 PTA, $19.2 million cume
7. W. (Lionsgate) — $5.33 million, $2,600 PTA, $18.74 million cume
8. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.13 million, $2,008 PTA, $87.98 million cume
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $4.06 million, $1,891 PTA, $30.89 million cume
10. Quarantine (Sony) — $2.55 million, $1,145 PTA, $28.77 million cume
* Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) — $929,000, $8,682 PTA, $2.83M
* NEW Changeling (Universal) — $502,000, $33,467 PTA, $502,000 cume
* NEW Passengers (Sony Classics) — $185,000, $1,480 PTA, $185,000 cume
* Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) — $175,000, $9,211 PTA, $435,00 cume
* NEW Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics) — $173,000, $19,222 PTA, $173,000 cume
* NEW I've Loved You So Long (Sony Classics) — $75,200, $7,520 PTA, $316,000 cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): "Go Wildcats!" That's the cheer at Disney as the High School Musical franchise has completed an effortless transition to the big screen, like a perfectly choreographed Kenny Ortega dance move, with a spectacular $16.5 million Friday. High School Musical 3 (Disney) is headed for a $55 million three-day haul. Some had this picture sailing a bit higher. Whatever the final number is, however, make no mistake: this is huge. The HSM franchise is essentially a license for Disney to print money.

There is no way that Disney could have known what it had when the original High School Musical debuted on The Disney Channel on Jan. 20, 2006. For the uninitiated, it's basically The Breakfast Club meets Busby Berkely. The setting is imaginary East High in Albuquerque, N.M. (the movies are filmed at real-life East High School in Salt Lake City, Utah), where all the kids are good looking, cliques dissolve into song-and-dance numbers, and the breathtakingly earnest and impossibly good-hearted tone may be exceeded only by the wattage of Troy Bolton's smile.

Troy Bolton is, of course, played by Zac Efron, without question the biggest teen heartthrob on the planet at this moment. Grown-ups probably know him from his role as Link Larkin in Adam Shankman's hit film adaptation of Hairspray last summer (although plenty of parents know exactly who Troy Bolton is). Efron received a reported $3.2 million for HSM3 and co-star Vanessa Hudgens (the beautiful transfer student Gabriella Marquez) scored a nifty $1.75 million. Ashley Tisdale (the slightly villainous Sharpay Evans) also made a seven-figure payday for this certain $150 million blockbuster, but the total budget was a lean $30 million.

Operating revenue. That's what the High School Musical franchise is all about. The original HSM debuted on the Disney Channel in 2006 with 7.7 million viewers, and its soundtrack became the No. 1-selling U.S. album of 2006. Then came its even bigger Disney TV sequel, High School Musical 2, which grabbed an opening-night TV audience of 17.3 million and spawned the No. 1 album in both the U.S. and the world for 2007. Then there is merchandising six-ways-to-Sunday with best selling novelizations, not to mention apparel, backpacks, bedspreads and on and on.

And don't forget the millions upon millions of DVD units of HSM and HSM2 that have been snatched up since 2006. In the first fiscal quarter of 2007, thanks to the DVD release of the original High School Musical, Disney reported a double-digit percentage increase in operating revenue. Laura Martin, an analyst from Soleil/Media Metrics, told CNN that the first HSM generated $1 billion in operating revenue for Disney. Figure that HSM2, which required no major budget increase, was even more successful, and Disney has likely already seen over $2 billion straight to its bottom line.

It is very safe to project that High School Musical 3 will get to the $150 million range in domestic box office, that the soundtrack will debut at No. 1 and get to at least quadruple platinum, and, ultimately, millions of DVDs will be sold. With Zac Efron reportedly talking about at least an $8 million salary for a potential HSM4, it will be interesting to see how Disney moves the franchise forward. All new kids at East High? How about College Musical with Troy and Gabriella and the gang? This is, without question, a "golden goose" for Disney, so this will not be the end of HSM.

Finishing a strong No. 2 for the day and the weekend is the latest installment of Saw from Lionsgate. This twistedly-original franchise has been a driving force behind the so-called "torture porn" genre. Although often imitated, this is the "gold standard" for this sort of bloody gore, and Saw V has delivered an excellent $12.3 million on its opening day, and it will likely finish at $29 million or so. This is only slightly down from the last three Saw outings:

Saw (2004) — $18.2 million opening, $55.1 million cume
Saw II (2005) — $31.72 million opening, $87 million cume
Saw III (2006) — $33.6 million opening, $80.2 million cume
Saw IV (2007) — $31.7 million opening, $63.3 million cume

The creepy sadist known as Jigsaw, the character at the center of the Saw franchise, will soon make movie history, overtaking Freddy Krueger to become the all-time No. 3 killer to be featured in a movie franchise. (Technically, Jigsaw is dead, and others have picked up where he left off. I don't want to get hate mail from "torture porn" purists.)

ALL-TIME TOP 5 MOVIE FRANCHISE KILLERS (Cumulative Domestic Box Office)
1. Hannibal Lecter (5 movies) — $425.3 million
2. Jason Vorhees (11 movies) — $315.6 million
3. Freddy Krueger (8 movies) — $307.4 million
4. Jigsaw (5 movies) — $298.1 million (Estimated)
5. Michael Myers (9 movies) — $275.1 million

The video-game adaptation Max Payne (20th Century Fox) appears to be down 57 percent from its opening weekend but will still manage a third-place finish. The Mark Wahlberg vehicle added $2.6 million on its second Friday and will finish the three-day with an estimated $7.6 million, for a 10-day cume of just under $30 million. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) will likely be No. 4, grabbing $1.9 million on Friday (fifth for the day) then riding weekend matinees to about $7.3 million. By Monday morning, Chloe the chihuahua will have banked just over $78.5 million domestic.

The other new wide release, Pride and Glory, from Warner Bros. and filmmaker Gavin O'Connor, has fared a bit better-than-expected with $2.2 million on opening day and a possible $6.3 million weekend, which would be enough to crack the Top 5. O'Connor made a notable debut with his self-financed gem Tumbleweeds, a big winner at the 1999 Sundance Film Festival, and the picture earned its star Janet McTeer an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. His next project was the well-reviewed 2004 hockey hit Miracle ($19.3 million opening, $64.4 million cume). Early reviews for Pride and Glory were not good, and it has a very "been there-done that" feel thanks to last October's James Gray cop yarn We Own the Night. The generically-titled PNG, however, has performed slightly better than prerelease tracking indicated.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $16.5 million, $4,554 PTA, $16.5 million cume
2. NEW Saw V (Lionsgate) — $12.3 million, $4,020 PTA, $12.3 million cume
3. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $2.6 million, $769 PTA, $24.66 million cume
4. NEW Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $2.2 million, $851 PTA, $2.2 million cume
5. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $1.9 million, $596 PTA, $73.18 million cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $1.83 million, $1,123 PTA, $15.1 million cume
7. W. (Lionsgate) — $1.79 million, $873 PTA, $15.2 million cume
8. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.7 million, $665 PTA, $84.55 million cume
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $1.38 million, $643 PTA, $28.2 million cume
10. Quarantine (Sony) — $1.05 million, $471 PTA, $27.27 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $55 million, $15,181 PTA, $55 million cume
2. NEW Saw V (Lionsgate) — $29 million, $9,477 PTA, $29 million cume
3. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $7.6 million, $2,248 PTA, $29.66 million cume
4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $7.3 million, $2,288 PTA, $78.52 million cume
5. NEW Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $6.3 million, $2,437 PTA, $6.3 million cume
6. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.7 million, $2,228 PTA, $88.55 million cume
7. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $5.6 million, $3,436 PTA, $18.87 million cume
8. W. (Lionsgate) — $5.54 million, $2,707 PTA, $18.96 million cume
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $4.35 million, $2,026 PTA, $31.17 million cume
10. Quarantine (Sony) — $3.25 million, $1,461 PTA, $29.47 million cume