Also rebounding dramatically was Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein). I predicted a $6.9 million three-day and a fourth-place finish after its soft Friday, but the Kevin Smith comedy will wrap up the weekend at No. 2, with about $10.7 million. Still, the movie will most likely not get to $30 million domestic, and competing studios tell me that Weinstein believed that this Kevin Smith-directed comedy had the chops to finish in the $80 million range.

The rest of the Top 5 will be Saw V (Lionsgate), with a possible $10.11 million, Clint Eastwood's Changeling (Universal) with a likely $9.4 million and Freestyle's The Haunting of Molly Hartley with about $6 million. Here's what I wrote Friday night about Changeling:

"I am a huge Eastwood fan, but Changeling is a big disappointment. Jolie's performance is overwrought, and I can 'see all the strings.' The usually good Jeffrey Donovan has an odd 1930s speech pattern, while Amy Ryan (an Oscar nominee for Gone Baby Gone) plays it with a present-day feel and John Malkovich is at his affected best (too much at times). It is a hard-to-watch two-and-a-half hours, and I find it dubious to suggest that this one will have much of an awards season run. The average Eastwood fan will walk out of Changeling saying, 'Bring on Gran Torino.' "

Needless to say, I am not a big fan of the movie.

One other advance signal you may have missed: Quantum of Solace (Sony) opened Friday in the United Kingdom and it shattered the all-time opening day box office record in the territory. As I wrote over the weekend:

"I think it is safe to predict a $50 million opening weekend for the Sony release with first week sales (Friday-thru-Thursday) an estimated $66 million. The second weekend for the new Bond will likely be in the $29 million-$33 million range, which would mean a drop of only 35 percent-40 percent, and Quantum may be at $135 million domestic by the Monday after Thanksgiving."

FINAL 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $15 million, $4,137 PTA, $61.7 million cume
2. NEW Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $10.68 million, $3,905 PTA, $10.68 million cume
3. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $10.11 million, $3,278 PTA, $45.83 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $9.41 million, $5,086 PTA, $10.08 million cume
5. NEW The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $6 million, $2,262 PTA, $6 million cume
6. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $4.75 million, $1,581 PTA, $84.06 million cume
7. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $4 million, $2,483 PTA, $25.28 million cume
8. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $3.7 million, $1,443 PTA, $35.55 million cume
9. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $3.4 million, $1,694 PTA, $92.53M
10. Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $3.26 million, $1,261 PTA, $11.61 million cume
* RockNRolla (Warner Bros.) — $1.55 million, $1,877 PTA, $2.17 million cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): The Wildcats will likely win a second consecutive weekend at the box office, but the songs that the kids from East High are singing aren't nearly as catchy as we thought they would be. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) only added about $1.9 million on Friday (fourth for the day), and that may mean a disappointing $9.5 million for the three-day.

The lesson here is that 13-year old girls prefer trick-or-treating to Troy (Zac Efron's Troy Bolton character). That is to be expected, but even with 'tweens pouring into multiplexes Saturday and Sunday, HSM3 still MAY not crack double-digits, diving a disastrous 77 percent from opening weekend. That would make it the 15th-worst second-weekend drop in history, on par with the 'tween-fueled 2003 bomb From Justin to Kelly, starring first-season American Idol contestants Kelly Clarkson and Justin Guarini.

In the above paragraph, I wrote the word "may" in ALL CAPS. That's because High School Musical 3 has been a tough movie to predict and project. In the interest of complete transparency, last Friday night I released a darn-near correct opening day number of $16.5 million (it wound up being $16.9 million), but my weekend projection was $55 million. Instead, the film was fantastically front-loaded and only reached $42 million. So, I feel that it is my responsibility to place some sort of asterisk near everything I write about Kenny Ortega's cable-to-big-screen musical. If HSM3 falls at the rate I've suggested this weekend, then I feel safe in saying that this film will finish in the $75 million-$80 million domestic range.

That is a huge come-down from the possible $150 million domestic I speculated about last Friday night, but the first movie for the gang at East High was budgeted at a lean $30 million, so this is still a huge windfall for Disney. Given that the first two High School Musical movies have already generated an estimated $2 billion in operating revenue for Disney in the last couple of years, this is all icing.

If my number holds, and HSM3 has a 10-day cume of about $56.2 million on Monday morning, it will mean that the movie generated 30 percent of its total sales on opening day! That may be the new benchmark for a front-loaded movie.

The Friday winner was holdover Saw V (Lionsgate), which scared up a Halloween total of $3.3 million in ticket sales. My calculations point toward a $9.1 million weekend. Keep in mind that the annual door-to-door candy grab will have taken a big bite out of all younger-skewing movies and that will lead to larger-than-normal "internal multiples" (for the non-junkies, the "internal multiple" is the number that you multiply the Friday gross by to arrive at the total weekend number). A 70 percent second-weekend dip for Jigsaw and his standard movie mayhem will be the biggest drop for the franchise, surpassing the 67 percent fall of last October's Saw IV. Still, Saw V is a highly-profitable venture for Lionsgate with a 10-day cume of $44.8 million and a likely $60 million domestic.

The Clint Eastwood-directed Changeling (Universal) expanded to 1,850 locations on Friday, and despite mediocre reviews (52 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), it is meeting with some success. I have seen the movie and consider it to be well below Eastwood's recent spectacular batting average, but Angelina Jolie was enough of a draw to sell $2.25 million in Friday tickets (third for the day), and with a healthy 25 Plus audience over the weekend, this one could reach $9 million, enough for a third-place finish.

I am a huge Eastwood fan, but Changeling is a big disappointment. Jolie's performance is overwrought, and I can "see all the strings." The usually good Jeffrey Donovan has an odd 1930s speech pattern while Amy Ryan (an Oscar nominee for Gone Baby Gone) plays it with a present-day feel and John Malkovich is at his affected best (too much at times). It is a hard-to-watch two-and-a-half hours, and I find it dubious to suggest that this one will have much of an awards-season run. The average Eastwood fan will walk out of Changeling saying, "Bring on Gran Torino."

The biggest shocker of the weekend may be the full-scale rejection of Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein), starring Seth Rogen and directed by Kevin Smith (Clerks). Tracking suggested that low teens was possible for this crude R-rated comedy, but the movie will only finish No. 2 on Friday with $2.3 million and, even with a friendly "internal multiplier," I have a hard time forecasting anything higher than $6.9 million, which would mean a disappointing No. 4 finish. That would make it the worst opening of Rogen's meteoric comedy career, trailing blockbusters like Superbad ( $33 million opening, $121.4 million cume), Knocked Up ($30.7 million opening, $148.7 million cume), You, Me and Dupree ($21.5 million opening, $75.6 million cume), The 40-Year-Old Virgin ($21.4 million opening, $109.4 million cume) and August's Pineapple Express ($23.2 million opening, $87.3 million cume).

On the bright side for Weinstein Company, I really like the trailer for The Reader, starring Ralph Fiennes and Kate Winslet. It has, at the very least, an Oscar "sheen." This could be just the good news that Bob and Harvey need at year's end.

Freestyle Releasing has pulled off a nifty upside surprise with its wide release of The Haunting of Molly Hartley. With Gossip Girl star Chace Crawford as the likely drawing card, the cheapie horror flick scared up $1.5 million on Friday and will probably crack the Top 5 with about $4.3 million.

The hard-to-market Warner Bros. action-comedy RockNRolla, from Guy Ritchie, Madonna's soon-to-be-ex-husband, has failed to expand well despite above-average reviews (58% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). This cockney crime caper generated only about $500,000 on Friday at 826 locations (a Per Theatre Average of just $605), and it will stumble to just $1.55 million for the weekend (an $1,877 PTA).

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $3.3 million, $1,070 PTA, $39 million cume
2. NEW Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $2.3 million, $841 PTA, $2.3 million cume
3. Changeling (Universal) — $2.25 million, $1,216 PTA, $32.92 million cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $1.9 million, $524 PTA, $48.61 million cume
5. NEW The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $1.5 million, $566 PTA, $1.5 million cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $1.1 million, $683 PTA, $22.38 million cume
7. Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $1 million, $387 PTA, $9.35 million cume
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $950,000, $316 PTA, $80.26 million cume
9. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $900,000, $351 PTA, $32.75 million cume
10. W. (Lionsgate) 890,000, $494 PTA, $20.83 million cume
* RockNRolla (Warner Bros.) — $500,000, $605 PTA, $1.12 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $9.5 million, $2,620 PTA, $56.21 million cume
2. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $9.1 million, $2,951 PTA, $44.82 million cume
3. Changeling (Universal) — $9 million, $4,865 PTA, $9.67 million cume
4. NEW Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $6.9 million, $2,523 PTA, $6.9 million cume
5. NEW The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $4.3 million, $1,621 PTA, $4.3 million cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $3.9 million, $2,424PTA, $25.2 million cume
7. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $3.8 million, $1,265 PTA, $83.1 million cume
8. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $3.15 million, $1,229 PTA, $35 million cume
9. Pride and Glory (Warner Bros.) — $3 million, $1,161 PTA, $11.35 million cume
10. W. (Lionsgate) — $2.93 million, $1,629 PTA, $22.88 million cume
* RockNRolla (Warner Bros.) — $1.55 million, $1,877 PTA, $2.17 million cume