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October 03, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'BHC' with $29M Opening; 'Infinite Playlist' Tuned Out; 'Appaloosa' Has More Giddyup Than Expected at No. 5; Zucker's 'Carol' Ghosts to $3.8M; 'Religulous' Nabs $3.5M; 'Rachel Getting Married' is Runaway PTA Champ!

by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is now on Facebook.

SUNDAY 9:30 a.m. (Pacific):

FINAL STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $29 million, $9,020 PTA, $29 million cume
2. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $17.7 million, $5,034 PTA, $54.6 million cume
3. NEW Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $12 million, $4,957 PTA, $12 million cume
4. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $7.35 million, $2,722 PTA, $25 million cume
5. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $5 million, $4,799 PTA, $5.57M
6. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $4.5 million, $1,748 PTA, $32.1 million cume
7. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $4.08 million, $1,703 PTA, $51.64 million cume
8. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $4.06 million, $4,776 PTA, $12.5 million cume
9. NEW An American Carol (Vivendi) — $3.8 million, $2,325 PTA, $3.8 million cume
10. NEW Religulous (Lionsgate) — $3.5 million, $6,972 PTA, $3.5 million cume
11. NEW Flash of Genius (Universal) — $2.32 million, $2,120 PTA, $2.32 million cume
12. NEW Blindness (Miramax) — $2 million, $1,185 PTA, $2 million cume
* NEW How to Lose Friends & Alienate People (MGM) — $14 million, $801 PTA, $1.4 million cume
* NEW Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) — $303,000, $33,667 PTA, $303,000 cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): Nobody does dog movies quite like Disney. The canine gold rush for Walt Disney Studios began in 1955 with the release of the animated Lady and the Tramp, which generated a $93.6 million cume in three separate theatrical releases. The studio then continued with the king of all dog movies, 1961's animated classic 101 Dalmatians ($144.8 million cume in five releases), rolled through the 1990s with the live-action 101 Dalmatians and 102 Dalmatians (those films, both starring Glenn Close, combined to gross more than $200 million domestic), and has shown no signs of slowing down this decade with hits like Snow Dogs ($81.1 million) and Eight Below ($81.6 million). It's fair to say that, after this weekend, Disney has added another big dog to its resume.

The canines in Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Drew Barrymore's Chloe and George Lopez's Papi) may be small, but they took a very big bite out of the box office. The new live-action talking-dog movie grabbed a stunning $8.5 million on its opening day, and, with a predictably huge surge of family business Saturday and Sunday, BHC will likely reach an estimated $29 million for the three-day. If the number holds, this would be the all-time second-biggest Disney dog movie opening in history, trailing only 1996's live action 101 Dalmatians ($33.5 million). Early math is pointing toward a possible $105 million-$110 million total domestic take.

Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount), the holdover high-tech thriller starring Shia LaBeouf, scared up another $5.5 million on its second Friday, and it seems headed for an estimated $17 million weekend, down only 42 percent or so from its blockbuster opening weekend. Based on that hold, the D.J. Caruso-directed blockbuster will pass $50 million domestic sometime on Sunday and seems to be on track for $100 million-$105 million domestic.

Shia LaBeouf may be Hollywood's biggest Under 25 male star, but 20-year-old Michael Cera is in the conversation thanks to Superbad ($121.5 million cume) and Juno ($143.5 million cume). His new flick Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony), however, has opened below industry expectations. The exceedingly well-reviewed teen comedy (71 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) checked in at No. 3 for the day with $4 million, and that will likely translate to a lower-than-expected $10.8 million opening weekend. Director Peter Sollett's first film was a quirky teen romance set in Manhattan called Raising Victor Vargas, which earned five Independent Spirit Awards, so he had the perfect sensibility to make a movie like this work. Despite the soft opening, the Infinite Playlist will still be very profitable, given its production budget of only $10 million.

The Richard Gere-Diane Lane tearjerker Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) is solidly entrenched at No. 4 for the day, and for the weekend. The Nicholas Sparks adaptation is luring Females 25 Plus to America's multiplexes with about $2.45 million on Friday and an anticipated second weekend of $7.5 million, down just 44 percent. That will give Rodanthe a new cume of $25.2 million or so by Monday morning.

The Ed Harris-directed Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) is proving that America still loves a good Western. With a cast that includes Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) and Oscar winners Renee Zellweger and Jeremy Irons, this second directorial effort for Harris has expanded to 1,045 playdates with terrific results. The old-fashioned shoot-em-up seized $1.7 million on Friday, and it is headed for a strong $5.2 million weekend, good for fifth place.

David Zucker's conservative comedy rant An American Carol (Vivendi) has surpassed industry expectations with $1.4 million on its opening day. The movie, which makes sport of liberal documentarian Michael Moore will likely sell $4.2 million in tickets over the weekend for a $2,563 PTA. Although it was not screened for critics, L.A. Weekly scribe Scott Foundas did manage to see it, and he says, "The movie's level of political discourse makes Couric/Palin look like Frost/Nixon." Regardless, it was not made for left-coast critics, and there is clearly room at multiplexes for movies made by and for conservatives.

Ironically, holdover Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn), a Christian-themed film made by the Sherwood Baptist Church in Albany, Ga., will likely outperform An American Carol for the three-day despite being in its second week and showing at almost 800 fewer locations. The red state-friendly Fireproof will likely reach $4.4 million for the frame for a new cume of $11.8 million. This is a massive success for filmmaker and Sherwood Baptist Church Associate Pastor Alex Kendrick considering that the movie was made for only $500,000 and all of the profit will be funneled back into the church ministries.

From the Godly to the godless we go, as the Bill Maher doc Religulous (Lionsgate), a nihilistic filmmaking exercise if there ever was one, will probably crack the Top 10 for the weekend. Maher attacks religion generally, and Christianity specifically, in this comic doc, and it has generated a surprisingly strong $1.1 million, which should translate to an impressive $3.3 million weekend despite being on only 502 screens. That would translate to an solid $6,500 PTA.

In a rather hodgepodge weekend of releases, the remaining three titles are all disappointments to varying degrees. Universal's feel-good Flash of Genius, the real-life story of Robert Kearns, who invented the intermittent windshield wiper (Kearns's invention stolen by Ford and Chrysler), scored about $729 per screen on Friday for an $800,000 gross. With a not insignificant number of positive reviews (59 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and a cast including Oscar nominee Greg Kinnear (As Good As It Gets, Little Miss Sunshine), Golden Globe nominee Lauren Graham (The Gilmore Girls) and Oscar nominee Alan Alda (The West Wing, M*A*S*H), Flash will still only reach $2.6 million for the three-day, and it will miss the Top 10 altogether.

Blindness (Miramax), the dismally-reviewed new movie from Oscar nominee Fernando Meirelles (City of God, The Constant Gardener) stumbled to an embarrassing $700,000 Friday and, for the weekend, $2.1 million (a dismal $1,243 PTA is in the cards). Meanwhile, MGM's How to Lose Friends & Alienate People, starring the always-funny Simon Pegg, is a non-starter with just $400,000 on opening day, and a projected $1.2 million for the three-day. That is a weekend PTA of just $686.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $8.5 million, $2,644 PTA, $8.5 million cume
2. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $5.5 million, $1,564 PTA, $42.4 million cume
3. NEW Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $4 million, $1,739 PTA, $4 million cume
4. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $2.45 million, $907 PTA, $20.1 million cume
5. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $1.7 million, $1,627 PTA, $2.25M
6. NEW An American Carol (Vivendi) — $1.4 million, $854 PTA, $1.4 million cume
7. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $1.3 million, $1,526 PTA, $9.7 million cume
8. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $1.2 million, $466 PTA, $28.8 million cume
9. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $1.15 million, $480 PTA, $48.7 million cume
10. NEW Religulous (Lionsgate) — $1.1 million, $2,191 PTA, $3.3 million cume
11. NEW Flash of Genius (Universal) — $800,000, $729 PTA, $800,000 cume
12. NEW Blindness (Miramax) — $700,000, $414 PTA, $700,000 cume
* NEW How to Lose Friends & Alienate People (MGM) — $400,000, $229 PTA, $400,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Beverly Hills Chihauhau (Disney) — $29 million, $9,020 PTA, $29 million cume
2. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $17 million, $4,835 PTA, $53.9 million cume
3. NEW Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $10.8 million, $4,639 PTA, $10.8 million cume
4. Nights in Rodanthe (Warner Bros.) — $7.5 million, $2,776 PTA, $25.2 million cume
5. Appaloosa (Warner Bros.) — $5.2 million, $4,976 PTA, $5.75M
6. Fireproof (IDP Films/Samuel Goldwyn) — $4.4 million, $5,164 PTA, $12.8 million cume
7. NEW An American Carol (Vivendi) — $4.2 million, $2,563 PTA, $4.2 million cume
8. Lakeview Terrace (Sony) — $4.1 million, $1,593 PTA, $31.7 cume
9. Burn After Reading (Focus) — $3.85 million, $1,606 PTA, $51.4 million cume
10. NEW Religulous (Lionsgate) — $3.3 million, $6,574 PTA, $3.3 million cume
11. Igor (MGM) — $3 million, $1,306 PTA, $18.3 million cume
12. NEW Flash of Genius (Universal) — $2.6 million, $2,368 PTA, $2.6 million cume
* NEW Blindness (Miramax) — $2.1 million, $1,243 PTA, $2.1 million cume
* NEW How to Lose Friends & Alienate People (MGM) — $1.2 million, $686 PTA, $1.2 million cume

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Posted at 11:17 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

W

Go Latino Hounds! I thought American Carol may be a solid BO pick and it looks like I MAY BE right!

Posted by: W | October 03, 2008 at 11:43 PM

tom

i don't think everyone predicting 3 million and hitting 4 million is anything to go crazy about for an american carol. just because it's conservative right wing doesn't mean you should treat it like palin. she does mediocre in a debate... and since it wasn't dreadful it's deemed a success. same thing you just did for an american carol.

Posted by: tom | October 03, 2008 at 11:56 PM

Vince

Wow, a lot of surprises this weekend (although "Chihuahua" doing big B.O. wasn't out of the blue by any means).

"Nick & Norah" underperforming? Front-loaded "Eagle Eye" holding better than "Rodanthe" in its second weekend? "Fireproof" still making money? "How to Lose Friends" straight up bombing?

It's an exciting time to play Fantasy Moguls folks.

Posted by: Vince | October 04, 2008 at 12:09 AM

abhishek

if nick&norah opened to 4 million, why would it end at 10...would it be that front-loaded after opening on a friday when schools are open...

Posted by: abhishek | October 04, 2008 at 08:55 AM

matt

actually abhishek i think it might actually make 11 or 12 million this weekend based off fridays numbers. also teen films are usually frontloaded. don't believe me? take a look at both step ups, john tucker must die, the house bunny. those are a few examples since i just woke up and my brain isn't working yet.

darnit that stupid chihuahua film is making big money. CRAP!!!!

out of all the other films opening, i am surprised to see an american carol making the most.

Posted by: matt | October 04, 2008 at 10:27 AM

W

Wasn't referencing American Carol to the $3 M prediction, rather other people's predictions of total floppage. It'll at least be a 5X multiplier.

Posted by: W | October 04, 2008 at 12:13 PM

jdls08

Hey, Tom, Sarah Palin mediocre at the debate huh...LOL... One misstep compared to Biden 16 errors including needing a lesson on the Constitution after 35 years in Congress. "An American Carol" does show the stupidity and ridiculous of the Left wing agenda. I am glad it is doing well at the Boxoffice.

Posted by: jdls08 | October 04, 2008 at 12:26 PM

jdls08

Hey, Tom, Sarah Palin mediocre at the debate huh...LOL... One misstep compared to Biden 16 errors including needing a lesson on the Constitution after 35 years in Congress. "An American Carol" does show the stupidity and ridiculous of the Left wing agenda. I am glad it is doing well at the Boxoffice.

Posted by: jdls08 | October 04, 2008 at 12:27 PM

W

I'm glad it is doing well too. It's nice to see a change from the leftist movies that are usually played. Though I can't confirm or deny I will see it, I can say that at least it advertises as fiction instead of what other filmmakers do.

Posted by: W | October 04, 2008 at 01:37 PM

Tonberry3001

It's easy to not make errors when you don't really answer the questions.

Posted by: Tonberry3001 | October 04, 2008 at 05:20 PM

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