FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'HSM3' to Belt Out $35M-$38M; 'Saw V' Should Scare Up $30M-plus; No Box-Office Glory for Norton's Proud Police Drama!
by Steve Mason
The parents of American 'tweens will not be the least surprised about the certain blockbuster status of High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney). The original High School Musical debuted on the Disney Channel in 2006 with 7.7 million viewers, and its soundtrack became the No. 1-selling U.S. album of 2006. Then came its even bigger Disney Channel sequel, High School Musical 2, which grabbed an opening night TV audience of 17.3 million and spawned the No. 1 album in both the U.S. and the world for 2007.
High School Musical is, frankly, a license to print money for Disney. The word is synergy. The Disney Channel and Radio Disney have carefully crafted the HSM brand, building awareness, creating excitement and, of course, driving sales. The franchise is an absolutely unique, breathtakingly earnest, entirely wholesome, ready-made-for-the-big-screen property. Industry tracking indicates that High School Musical 3 is a sure-fire smash, and I am calling for something in the $35 million-$38 million range for opening weekend. My guess is that by the time this one wraps up its theatrical runs, it could reach $150 million domestic.
Meanwhile, the equally original, breathtakingly nihilistic and entirely depraved Saw V (Lionsgate) will open on par with the last two installments of the franchise. My sources tell me that tracking for Saw V is nearly identical to the tracking for last year's Saw IV and 2006's Saw III. This newest go-round for Jigsaw is likely to open in the $29 million-$32 million range, which should translate to about $60 million domestic overall.
The original Saw, released for Halloween of 2004, was, for me, among the most blazingly original horror films ever made. That was an absolutely ingenious movie, with a uniquely twisted premise, and the gore and sadism was balanced by a certain evil freshness. Written by Leigh Whannell and directed by James Wan, Saw was rewarded with an $18.2 million opening weekend and a total domestic gross of $55.1 million. Here's the gruesome Saw hit list:
Saw (2004) — $18.2 million opening, $55.1 million cume
Saw II (2005) — $31.72 million opening, $87 million cume
Saw III (2006) — $33.6 million opening, $80.2 million cume
Saw IV (2007) — $31.7 million opening, $63.3 million cume
These movies became too much for me to stomach sometime in the first reel of Saw III — I love some good twisted horror, but there are limits — but Jigsaw will likely make history in the next few weeks with or without my moviegoing dollar, becoming the all-time third-highest-grossing movie franchise killer surpassing the esteemed Freddy Krueger:
ALL-TIME TOP 5 FRANCHISE KILLERS
1. Hannibal Lecter (5 movies) — $425.3 million
2. Jason Vorhees (11 movies) — $315.6 million
3. Freddy Krueger (8 movies) — $307.4 million
4. Jigsaw (4 movies) — $285.8 million
5. Michael Myers (9 movies) — $275.1 million
With two new big movies landing this week, video game adaptation Max Payne (20th Century Fox), starring Mark Wahlberg, will fall hard, dipping a possible 55 percent to $8.2 million or so. Meanwhile, the country is "buzzing" with positive word-of-mouth for the estrogen-fueled The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight). I am forecasting an excellent hold for this novel-to-big screen adaptation starring Oscar nominees Queen Latifah and Sophie Okonedo, Academy Award winner Jennifer Hudson, Grammy winner Alicia Keyes and America's pint-sized sweetheart, Dakota Fanning. Bees may be down just 35 percent or so, for an excellent $6.9 million and a fourth-place finish. That would probably be just enough to hold off Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney), which will lose a chunk of its core audience to HSM3.
It will be an all-around great weekend for Disney, which will benefit from the increasing number of theatres offering Digital 3D presentation. Many towns will get the opportunity to experience Henry Selick's now-classic Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas in 3D for the first time, and it is worth every penny of the slight 3D surcharge theatres are adding. My hunch is that Nightmare could reach $5.75 million, which would be up about 8 percent from last year's $5.3 million re-issue opening.
The other wide release is Pride and Glory from Warner Bros. and filmmaker Gavin O'Connor. He made a notable debut with his self-financed gem Tumbleweeds, which won a special prize at the 2006 Sundance Film Festival and earned its star Janet McTeer an Oscar nomination for Best Actress. His next project was the well-reviewed 2004 hockey hit Miracle ($19.3 million opening, $64.4 million cume). Early reviews for Pride and Glory are not good (30 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and it has a very "been there, done that" feel thanks to last October's James Gray policier We Own the Night. The generically-titled P&G is barely registering a blip in prerelease tracking research, and I will be surprised if it climbs over $5 million in its three-day start.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 24
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $36.6 million
2. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $30.9 million
3. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $8.2 million
4. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $6.9 million
5. Beverly Hills Chihuaua (Disney) — $6.7 million
6. W. (Lionsgate) — $6.3 million
7. Tim Burton’s Nightmare Before Christmas 3-D (Disney) — $5.75 million
8. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $4.7 million
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) — $4.6 million
10. Pride & Glory (Warner Bros.) — $4.4 million
11. Quarantine (Sony) — $3.2 million
12. Nick & Norah’s Infinite Playlist (Sony) — $1.9 million
I want to say HSM3 will have much higher numbers, in the 50 million range. I know a lot of people in their teens/20s who are excited about this movie, not just youngsters and their parents. Plus, kids trying to sneak into Saw V may purchase tickets for HSM3 in order to sneak into the R-rated flick.
Posted by: matt | October 23, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Try DOUBLING your prediction for HSM3 Mase. I personally dislike the franchise and have never seen one of the movies in my life, but this is a much bigger fanbase than HANNAH MONTANA and that did just about the same amount as your prediction in 1/5th of the theaters and only on one screen each! If all 17.7M people show up (including more considering double viewings and the parents having to chaperone their kids) I predict an easy $65M. My gut is telling me close to $80M and I think it can easily exceed that too.
Posted by: Ryan | October 23, 2008 at 12:40 PM
I would love to see a bigger number for HSM3, and I've heard from some industry types that think it will go higher. I taped a show at Reelz Channel today and both AP movie critic Christy Lemire and David Poland from Movie City News both think it will go higher. If it hits $40M it would be a fantastic opening considering that the budget was $30M.
I'll have early numbers Friday.
Mase
Posted by: Steve Mason | October 23, 2008 at 01:54 PM
I saw "Body of Lies" Tuesday and was surprised how good this movie was. Performances are excellent. Highly recommend it this weekend. Certainly deserves a bigger boxoffice. This is a good weekend to catch up on the goodies and "Body of Lies" is a goody and my best film this year thus far. "Appaloosa" second.
Posted by: jdls08 | October 23, 2008 at 03:30 PM
I think 35 will be just right for HSM3 i dont want it to get any higher 35 is already too high, make fun of me all you want I want that series to be a flop. They Bug Me alot
Posted by: salva | October 23, 2008 at 04:32 PM
As much as i want HSM3 to be a box-office flop it wont, on boxofficemojo reports say it will open with 63.1 million hope to God it wont I hate them
Posted by: salva | October 23, 2008 at 04:38 PM
ryan... i agree with you... the numbers will be much higher but how can you dislike the franchise when you haven't seen any of the movies? i think you mean you dislike the idea of the franchise.
Posted by: g | October 24, 2008 at 01:13 AM
I'll be seeing the premiere of Zack and Miri tomorrow night.(It was filmed here in Pittsburgh, and Smith is attending) If anyone is interested in a review or my thoughts, let me know, and I'll post 'em here.
Posted by: Keyser Soze | October 24, 2008 at 08:03 AM
I'm with Keyser in being excited to see "Zack and Miri" in a few days (I'm not going to his premiere thingy). Halloween can't come soon enough.
Oh and HSM3- Above $40 million (easily biggest musical opening ever), could go 50 million, but not much higher than that. You can't really predict the strength of tween girls though, but at least we can try.
Posted by: Vince | October 24, 2008 at 04:54 PM
just saw Saw 5 it was good but i still think Saw 3 was the best out of all the movies
Posted by: salva | October 24, 2008 at 07:10 PM
Remember, Hannah 3D opened to $31 on 680 screens. Granted it was billed as a 1-wk only engagement, but HSM3 is opening on 6x as many screens. It could top $50 EASILY. HSM is broader and older than Hannah.
Posted by: darwin | October 24, 2008 at 07:40 PM