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October 23, 2008

TIP OF THE WEEK: Win Box Office Moguls with 'Madagascar' or James Bond

by Mister Informative

Greetings, Moguls! While September and October were largely exempt from them, November brings the return of big boppers, Moguls Monsters, huge hits. Whichever alliteration you choose to describe them (and yes, you must use alliteration, it's mandatory), there are some expensive options out there in the current season. In Box Office Moguls leagues, the two money magnets are Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa ($59) and Quantum of Solace ($51). Despite my insistence to the contrary, this July The Dark Knight turned out to be well worth spending that amount of money on. Although neither of these two will make as much as TDK did — heck, they might not even make as much as TDK COMBINED — could either of these two sure-to-be-successful sequels help you to secure a Box Office Moguls victory despite siphoning off half your funds?

My answer for Escape 2 Africa is a resounding no. The first Madagascar movie made $193 million back in 2005, and that was with the help of a summer release date. That's not to say that coming out in the winter this time means it'll absolutely fail, it's just that most of the primary audience for the movie is in school during the week, so the day-to-day totals will undoubtedly be lower. I do think that Escape 2 Africa can open at or above the $47 million the first installment enjoyed, especially with little competition on its first weekend, but like its predecessor, it'll top out around $200 million. Maybe even closer to $175 million.

If there weren't any solid, less expensive options, I'd say go for it. If we were talking in the $30 price range, I'd also be inclined to give it a shot. But there ARE some solid cheaper options, and with them it's even possible to get two for nearly the same cost as Madagascar alone (The 'tween-fandom express of High School Musical 3: Senior Year and Twilight costs $60, for example.) If you take Escape 2 Africa you may have to rely on a bunch of cutoff bargains at the end of the season, and I definitely wouldn't recommend that. $59 is way too much.

Victory with Quantum of Solace, however, is at least a little more plausible. Casino Royale made $167 million in the very same November/December time frame just two years ago. I expect that the warm reception it received will help drive Quantum of Solace to even better performance, certainly becoming the highest-grossing Bond movie of all time and perhaps even going over $200 million. There is really nothing standing in Bond's way for almost an entire month, until The Day the Earth Stood Still. No other films open wide against it, and the bigger Thanksgiving movies (Bolt, Twilight) aim at completely different demographics. Transporter 3 is just a blip on the radar; I doubt it will have any negative effect on 007. Still, $51 is a hefty chunk of change to spend, and I don't exactly think it's the most efficient use of the money. With the right supporting choices, however, Quantum of Solace at least has a chance at giving you solace atop your league's leaderboard come season's end.

In case you're really hankering to have one of these box office behemoths on your slate, I've compiled a theoretical Box Office Moguls roster using each film as cornerstone. Copy it verbatim if you wish, or use it as a model; it's up to you:

TEAM A (is for Alex the Lion)
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Nov. 7; $59)
Soul Men (Nov. 7; $4)
Punisher: War Zone (Dec. 5; $5)
The Tale of Despereaux (Dec. 19, $7)
Bedtime Stories (Dec. 25; $12)
The Spirit (Dec. 25; $5)
Marley & Me (Dec. 25; $6)
Valkyrie (Dec. 26; $2)
TOTAL = $100

TEAM B (is for Bond, James Bond)
Quantum of Solace (Nov. 14; $51)
Soul Men (Nov. 7; $4)
Punisher: War Zone (Dec. 5; $5)
Yes Man (with Solace; Dec. 19, $15)
Bedtime Stories (Dec. 25; $12)
The Spirit (Dec. 25; $5)
Marley & Me (Dec. 25; $6)
Valkyrie (Dec. 26; $2)
TOTAL = $100

Two almost identical rosters, except that with the $8 difference between Escape 2 Africa and Quantum of Solace, you can upgrade The Tale of Despereaux to Yes Man. Clearly, both slates are hugely reliant on the month of December and, to be more specific, highly invested in the final 10 days of the season. But I think that the volume of choices in those final two weeks should provide a good boost, as well as the fact that you've got some very family-friendly movies, which usually have at least decent revenue as Christmas draws near. Let me explain my picks a little bit:

One of the reasons the MPAA provides for giving Soul Men an R rating is "pervasive language." This means, of course, that we very well might get to hear Samuel L. Jackson utter his signature phrase. Hooray! I'm thinking that this will come in slightly behind the performance of director Malcolm Lee's last movie, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins, with between $30 million and $40 million — not bad for a mere $4. Soul Men also has the benefit of being a memorial of sorts; it stars the late Bernie Mac and Isaac Hayes. (Arguably the similar presence of Heath Ledger helped The Dark Knight. While this isn't at quite the same level, it should still lend some assistance. For that matter, whenever The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus comes out it will benefit from a similar brand of sentiment. And, though it's gone largely unremarked, Mac also has a key role in Escape 2 Africa, as the voice of zoo lion Alex's long-lost father.) One thing to beware of is that MGM is distributing Men, and this year their resume hasn't exactly been impressive. Igor, The Longshots and College were all afterthoughts, but I think Soul Men at the very least has a better outlook than those, and is worth spending a few bucks on.

I'm not expecting much out of Punisher: War Zone either, but at least it's the only wide release on Dec. 5. That alone isn't an indicator of success, but the week after Thanksgiving is always pretty dead, so being the lone new film means there's less to contend with. (The chance remains that the scheduled expansion for Milk that weekend is a wide one, but I sincerely doubt Milk would go wide in only its second weekend of release. Focus Features will, pardon the pun, surely "milk" arthouse crowds for all the cash it can grab before taking its primo Oscar bait to a larger audience.) I was always indifferent towards this part of the Marvel universe, but hey, there have to be SOME fans out there somewhere. The first Punisher film (which was actually the second one, although few people recall the Dolph Lundgren version from 1989) made $33 million back in 2004, so without Thomas Jane (or D.L.) returning as the title character this time, I bet War Zone tops out around $25 million. That's not the greatest return on a $5 investment, but you don't have many other options in that price range. Keep an eye on Cadillac Records, though; if it gets a wide release, it might be a worthy Punisher substitute for just $3.

By the time The Tale of Despereaux rolls around, there will have been nothing in the animation/family department since Bolt. (Delgo does not count because it won't do much of anything. In regards to Delgo, here's a quote I stole from the IMDb message boards: "1998 called, it wants its animation back.") With nearly a month between itself and Bolt, Despereaux seems destined for a decent first weekend, even if Universal isn't exactly the first name that comes to mind when you're thinking about animation. It's the first Christmas family movie out of the gate — and being first always helps — and it's based on a book, which could help draw some more people in. It'll fall off after the first weekend because of the glut of similarly targeted movies that are coming out soon after that, but a solid $35 million seems doable. If you're not sure that's worth $7, go ahead and take Role Models (Nov. 7) for $6 — in my opinion, though, that one's equally iffy.

For Jim Carrey, Yes Man seems like it could almost be a sequel to Liar Liar. Man can't lie, man can't say no ... you see where I'm going with this. It's also a sort of return to comedic (and typically more bankable) form after The Number 23 (Horton Hears a Who also sort of went down that route, but few, if any, people saw the movie for Carrey's sake). Like certain other Carrey vehicles (Liar Liar again, or Bruce Almighty), this one looks to be a comedy with a message. I'm guessing something about how being open to trying new things is a positive quality to have, but knowing when to say when is important too. I've got to admit, I thought it was careening toward a PG, but this week the MPAA gave Yes Man a PG-13. That might bring the numbers down a little bit, but the formula looks so family friendly that some people might not think twice. Yes Man probably won't win the weekend, but coming in second behind Seven Pounds is certainly within its grasp. It could net you above $60 million by the time the season ends.

The comparison to Jumanji is easily made, but Bedtime Stories reminds me a lot more of Night at the Museum. A comedy star (replace Ben Stiller with Adam Sandler) takes on a family role, stuff comes to life (replace museum displays with stories), and adventures follow. Like Museum, Bedtime Stories also comes out around Christmas, and should score big. Museum opened with $42 million and actually went UP in its second week; I think Bedtime Stories can manage a similar, perhaps even higher $45-50 million opening. It's the clear frontrunner for Christmas weekend even amongst a crowded field of five or six wide releases, and something as surefire as this is a pretty good deal for $12. You should have Stories on your Nov.-Dec. Box Office slates whether or not you roll with Alex the Lion or James Bond, and keep it on your radar for the next couple of seasons, too. Night at the Museum held over very strongly into the next year, going on to make over $250 million. Bedtime Stories could do something similar. Regardless, these Stories are a great way to make your October slates end happily ever after.

The Spirit looks to capitalize on the Sin City/300 crowd; it is possibly the biggest sleeper pick of the winter. It was originally scheduled for January 2009, but was moved up to a Christmas release, which seems to say that Lionsgate has some confidence in it. Maybe all of us Moguls should as well. The Spirit will by no means be a huge blockbuster, but a $15 million to $20 million opening might be in the cards. (And in the long run, I think the $55 million total projection is a bit low.) Few people foresaw the success of either Sin City or 300. Both ot them kind of flew under the radar, and I'm thinking that's exactly what The Spirit will do too. Although the PG-13 rating means graphic novel mainstays like blood spatter (even if it is black-and-white and stylized) have to be kept to a minimum, it also means revenue will be easier to come by, so The Spirit should give you a good final-weekend jolt. Especially combined with all of the other late-December picks on this hypothetical roster.

Two observations about the teaser trailer for Marley & Me — not the utterly generic new one, but the strange, wonderfully bizarre gewgaw that came out back in July: It elicited perhaps the most responses of "Awww!" that I've ever heard at once (cute puppies do it every time), and the theme from Chariots of Fire behind it was an excellent choice. I would do everything, all day long, in slow motion if I could be accompanied by the theme from Chariots of Fire. With regards to the movie itself, I think this will be slightly more successful than last year's comparable The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, which made $20 million by the end of the year after a Christmas Day release. Marley & Me won't be top dog (heh, heh) on Christmas, but it appeals to a wider audience than a misunderstood Loch Ness monster, that's for sure. I'm guessing $25-30 million for this by the end of the calendar year. Judging by the footage we've seen, Marley's owners couldn't count on him for much discipline and good behavior, but you absolutely CAN count on his movie to give your slate a little late-season kick.

It's tough to wade through the sea of $2 Box Office options to find a good one, but Valkyrie is easily the best of them. You only get one weekend of stats, but it's a wide release weekend, and it's only costing you $2, so there are two positive aspects already. Like The Spirit, this was moved up from a 2009 release, so maybe Valkyrie won't be quite the epic flop Lions for Lambs was for distributor United Artists last year. (Of course, it was pushed back into February from June, August and October 2008 first, but still, if the reaction to a test screening was that positive, something's got to be at least satisfactory.) Arguably Tom Cruise has shed a bit of his crazy-person image after his cameo in Tropic Thunder; that could help him find footing at the box office as a leading man again. Valkyrie won't singlehandedly win a league for you, but a good $10 million contribution in the final week of the season is perfectly within reason. Not bad for $2.

Join me next week as I visit both Africa and Australia with my associate Camille to get revenge on some romantic vampires who kidnapped my friend Penny. (In other words, it's my typical breakdown of the upcoming month's studs, duds, and wild cards.) Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative wrote this column in slow motion, but he couldn't find his copy of the soundtrack to Chariots of Fire, so he had to use "Top Gun Anthem" by Harold Faltemeyer and Steve Stevens instead. Tell him your own favorite slo-mo music at misterinformative@gmail.com.

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Comments

Ronster

$10 million for Valkyrie in the few days after the Dec 26 opening? I can't even come close to seeing that given the other movies opening up at the same time and the week before.

After four tries, it's like they chose the exact worst placement for this flick.

In those 5 days, $3-5 million.

Posted by: Ronster | October 23, 2008 at 01:38 PM

W

Desperaux WILL GET at least $50 M and I think $70 is doable (10x multiplier). This is based on my 2 experiances seeing the trailer in front of Wall-E and the reaction of the crowd there. I think you should upgrade something else...

I think Soul Men will at the very least be a 10x at $40M and I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $60M, though $45-50 is my guess.

Posted by: W | October 23, 2008 at 02:11 PM

Mr. Informative

See, the Despereaux trailer was in front of Wall-E when I watched it too, and... nothing. Crickets. I'm thinking of it sort of like Flushed Away, which made $42 million. And in either case, it may hit $70 million as you forecast, but surely not in those first two weeks, which are the only eligible ones in the current season.

Posted by: Mr. Informative | October 23, 2008 at 03:19 PM

nspan

a few of these picks are going on my bankrupts slate

Posted by: nspan | October 23, 2008 at 03:41 PM

Buscemi

I think that Valkyrie is opening limited first, then be a wide release in January. The thing opens the day AFTER Christmas. Why the hell would a movie open wide the day after Christmas?

Yes Delgo looks like an abomination but since it is the first film for children opening in December, it could do alright numbers. I mean, Space Chimps managed $25 million despite bad reviews and word-of-mouth.

And I actually think that Yes Man will outgross Seven Pounds. Yes Man features Jim Carrey in his familiar madcap comedy territory that never has failed for him (not counting Man On The Moon since that was more of a comedy/drama). Meanwhile, Seven Pounds may be the most adult-oriented film of Will Smith's career. Even The Pursuit Of Happyness, the last Will Smith drama, had something for everyone. This strikes me as being a purely adult-oriented drama. It should do decently in December but it won't do big numbers ala Hancock and I Am Legend.

Posted by: Buscemi | October 23, 2008 at 11:21 PM

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