But before then, before I get to talking about December and January, first I think it's worth it to take a thorough look at November's offerings. While the new season has only just debuted, there's still a lot on the table next month — if you've saved some cash for, say, the final month of a September-November slate, then maybe you can find just the right pick to vault you into the league lead. Each weekend provides opportunities galore: maybe a box office boon, or a PTA goldmine  — maybe even both! I'm here to navigate you through this potential minefield with November's studs, duds, and wild cards:

WEEKEND OF NOV. 7-9

Stud: Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa — You're pretty much guaranteed $150 million, maybe even $200 million, but that certainty comes with a price. Still, my definition of "stud" is a guaranteed success, regardless of price tag, and Madagascar definitely fits the bill. Remember that, for a while, Quantum of Solace was scheduled to open head-to-head against the animated zoo animals. Once Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince arvada-kedavra-ed it's Nov. release date, Sony moved Solace back to an emptier weekend where direct competition wouldn't be as heavy. A sensible move, to be sure, but the important observation here is that any movie able to force James Bond out of its way obviously has (or is assumed to have) a pretty good head of steam going for it. Early tracking suggests an opening weekend upwards of $50 million, which is big, but actually isn't anything record-breaking. It wouldn't be the highest November weekend for an installment of a franchise (that's Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire at $102 million), or for an animated film (The Incredibles, $70 million), or even for an animated sequel (Toy Story 2, $57 million). But $50-55 million would still be a pretty huge effort for your slate —  Escape 2 Africa is easily going to be the lion king of November's first weekend.
Dud: Repo! The Genetic Opera — There's a reason this is a super-cheap pick in both league types. A bloody flick like this needs to make its coin BEFORE the calendar turns to November, because once Halloween has come and gone, interest fades a bit. I'll admit, the concept of making human organ repossession into a musical is somewhat novel, but I still lack interest in Repo for two reasons: 1) the director is Darren Lynn Bousman, helmer of Saw II, Saw III, and Saw IV (Good thing he ended the series at four films to keep his artistic vision intact. Oh, wait ...) and 2a) Really? Paris Hilton? 2b) And she's going to sing? Repo is reportedly getting dumped on just a few screens on opening weekend  —  and as soon as it comes out, it'll be buried deeper than (this is pure plot speculation on my part, but I have an inkling I'm somewhere close) the people in the movie who die when they can't afford their organs any longer. Don't even consider putting it on your slate.
Wild Card: The Boy in the Striped Pajamas — Definitely not a bad PTA pick. There aren't any other arthouse newcomers that would really challenge it, and with The Road moving off of the following weekend, these Pajamas could pick up PTA points for you in multiple weeks. It's unclear how wide the movie will expand, but it could also be a decent speculative Box Office pick, if you've got a small amount to spare and nothing else to spend it on. Another positive sign is that one of the production company credits goes to BBC films, who last had a hand in The Duchess, a powerhouse PTA earner from September. They're one of those companies that, if you see they're involved with a film, that makes it worth a second look. The book on which Striped Pajamas is based won multiple literary awards in Europe. Perhaps the filmmakers are hoping their adaptation will accomplish a similar feat at next year's Oscars. While I'm not sure about those chances, I do think The Boy in the Striped Pajamas could be a potent piece of your slate.

WEEKEND OF NOV. 14-16

Stud: Quantum of Solace — I watched some bits of From Russia with Love when I found it on TV the other day, and it reinforced that Sean Connery was a great Bond, to be sure, but it also reminded me that I really like Daniel Craig's grittier portrayal of the character. (The credit doesn't go exclusively to him, of course —  surely the writers and director had something to do with that character adjustment — but he deserves a lot of the praise for it.) And I think a large segment of the public agrees with me there. That's a big reason why this sequel, the first "original" Bond movie not based on one of Ian Fleming's books, could end up as the highest-grossing 007 caper yet. It will easily match, if not exceed, the $167 million Casino Royale rang up, and it should get you a dozen or so Top 5 points as well, not to mention an IMDb rating likely between 7 and 8. I'd say that at $37 in October-December Ultimate leagues, it's just about the best slate anchor available.
Dud: The Dukes — It's been on the shelf for over a year — it debuted at Newport Beach in April 2007, and also was shown at a festival in Rome last year, along with Across the Universe, Rendition, Youth Without Youth and Into the Wild, among others. If it's taken this long to get a release, something's got to be wrong with it. On top of that, the distributor that picked it up, CAVU Releasing, has handled a whopping six films since 2001. Less than one per year? I'd definitely call that inexperienced. And none of those six films (which include Trailer Park Boys: The Movie and The Real Dirt on Farmer John) really made any noise whatsoever. The Dukes has an IMDb score of 8.1, so at least that's pretty good, but it's not worth putting on your slate if that's the only benefit you'll get. Quantum of Solace and some higher-profile limited releases will earn the PTA points that weekend, so you definitely shouldn't expect any contribution there; these Dukes are highly "hazzard-ous" (heh, heh) to your slate's chances of success.
Wild Card: Slumdog Millionaire (Opens on Wednesday) — I'll be honest, seeing that the MPAA slapped this one with an R rating was a little surprising. The concept seemed wholly in PG-13 territory to me, but I guess that's why I'm not a member of the MPAA. Another movie with Bollywood ties, Roadside Romeo, failed to make any sort of dent at the box office this past weekend, but Slumdog Millionaire has a much higher profile, so there's no worry of a complete flameout. Consider, too, that the British Independent Film Award nominations were recently released, and Slumdog Millionaire received five nominations, including Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best British Independent Film. (In Bruges, The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, and The Duchess were the other nomination magnets.) It may not be a breakout box office success, but it could bring home a bunch of PTA. It's up to you to decide whether or not that would be worth the price tag.

WEEKEND OF NOV. 21-23

Stud: Bolt — Walt Disney's animation department has mostly been holding the door for Pixar in the last several years. Since 2002, only Lilo & Stitch ($145 million) and Chicken Little ($135 million) have even cracked $100 million, though Meet the Robinsons ($97 million) came within a sneeze of that milepost last year. It's been a long time since The Lion King, hasn't it? Coincidentally, however, both Chicken and Robinsons were also released in 3D, the novelty of which surely helped their grosses. That will be the case with Bolt as well, but considering that theaters with 3D capability have proliferated quite a bit since Robinsons, the extra dimension is sure have an even greater effect for Bolt. Disney is also a hit with families around the holidays — look no further than last year's Enchanted ($127 million) for proof of that. (With that in mind, don't sleep on Bedtime Stories. Given that the House of Mouse is behind it, and Adam Sandler is out in front of it, that one could be this year's Night at the Museum. I know, not a Disney flick; I'm just seeing parallels in timing, casting, story and intended audience.) The teenage vampire romance of Twilight may be receiving the most hype of any Nov. 21 release, but Bolt is hands down a surer choice.
Dud: Nerakhoon — While you might squeeze some PTA out of it, I just feel like Nerakhoon will get lost among everything else — including the likelihood of strong holdover performance from The Boy in the Striped Pajamas and Slumdog Millionaire. And honestly, the story of a Laotian family's emigration to the United States after the Vietnam War might carry more weight if it were viewed through the lens of a fictional drama rather than a documentary. Looking at it as a documentary almost makes me feel like it's something I'd be able to watch on the National Geographic channel soon enough, whereas if it were a drama, it'd seem much more compelling. To add to the uncertainty, I don't even know who's releasing this thing — IMDb doesn't have a US distributor listed, and Box Office Mojo doesn't even acknowledge the film's existence. That certainly doesn't say much for its Fantasy Moguls viability.
Wild Card: Twilight — Purportedly the studio is already gearing up for a sequel, which seems to indicate that they know this will succeed. It also has a relatively small budget (reported at $37 million, which it admittedly might make back in the first weekend alone), so turning a profit won't be a problem. But remember, New Line was all set to get started on the sequels to The Golden Compass before that one came out, and ... well, you don't hear much about production on The Subtle Knife these days, do you? Also, the company in charge of Twilight, Summit Entertainment, is still looking for their first real success as a domestic distributor. (Never Back Down is perhaps their brightest hour so far.) I said a few months back that I didn't expect Twilight to live up to its hype — and I still feel that way. It'll do well, but I don't see it becoming a huge blockbuster, as some people expect. Outside of this specific film, too, it's a good general rule of thumb — don't let hype trick you into overestimating something. Hannah Montana and High School Musical 3: Senior Year have proven that teen girls are a force to be reckoned with at the box office, and they still will be with Twilight, don't get me wrong. But teenage vampire romance won't be anywhere close to deserving the title of "the next Harry Potter."

WEEKEND OF NOV. 26-28

Stud: Milk — To borrow from the National Dairy Council, Milk can do your slate good. (I promise, that's really what the ads said; I haven't reverted to speaking caveman here.) As I've said before, I don't think the presidential election will force politics on people so much that they'll avoid political movies like Milk and Frost/Nixon; both films have enough of a historical context to avoid being labeled as purely political. They also lack the connection to current news (like in The Lucky Ones or Stop-Loss, for example) that prevents escapism for audiences. Milk is the only limited Thanksgiving release with any sort of buzz, so I'm just going to go ahead and chalk up an automatic 5 PTA points right now. It should stay strong in that category throughout December as it expands, even beginning to earn some solid box office revenue as it reaches more and more locations. Remember, Focus Features excels at the slow platform release. Milk is a pretty expensive choice, yes, but it also has the makings of another Brokeback Mountain or Atonement — both of which enjoyed success with critics AND big box office.
Dud: Australia — I know that just a few weeks ago, the title of my column talked about buying Nicole Kidman's green dress with $20, but I've really changed my mind on this one. (Although, strangely enough, it's not because of Nicole Kidman, even though many of her recent films have failed to live up to expectations.) For one, Australia should have stuck to its original date, Nov. 14, where competition would be lighter (no Bolt or Twilight to deal with). Secondly, I know Baz Luhrmann is a master at creating luscious visuals, but a film can't subsist on visuals alone (although Speed Racer sure tried). And thirdly, given how poorly 20th Century Fox has fared this year, I'm reluctant to bet on much of anything coming from them. Horton Hears a Who is 2CFX's high water mark in 2008, with $154 million; no other Fox film has gone above $80 million, and they had some true stinkers — Meet Dave and Space Chimps come to mind — in there, too. Max Payne has turned out to be an okay value for the price, and Marley & Me probably will be too, but Australia ... I think it'll be another disappointment.
Wild Card: Four Christmases — I really don't see why many people are pegging this as such a sure-thing failure, other than that it was originally a New Line property, and their absorption into Warner Bros. has been well documented. Not all New Line's projects were commercially craptacular. Heck, look at Sex and the City and Journey to the Center of the Earth. Four Christmases is the only big Christmas-themed movie this year, it's got an audience-friendly PG-13 rating, its stars are at least decent box office draws and, speaking of craptacularity, even Christmas with the Kranks was good for $73 million in 2005. Vince Vaughn drove Fred Claus to $72 million last year — that'd certainly be a respectable number from Four Christmases. Sure, it looks a little like Meet the Parents, but that and Meet the Fockers were both runaway successes, so maybe people will see the slight similarities and want to go see it that much more. Of course, the chance also exists that Four Christmases will be "just another dumb Christmas movie," and fail to make any noise at the box office other than that gurgling sound of your precious Moguls dollars circling the drain. But my money's on it being at least a medium-sized hit.

That's all! Join me next week for a special edition Holiday Bargain Basement Spectacular. I'll be counting down the 10 best choices priced at $5 or less in the November-January season, for both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. (Whew, that's 20 flicks to cover; I'd better get started!) Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative is new and improved, with 50 percent more informativeness! (Information?) OK, not really, but didn't that make you want to pay even more attention to his columns? Ask him for special advice at misterinformative@gmail.com.