WEEKEND OF OCT. 3-5
Stud: Rachel Getting Married — It's the only film available for Fantasy Moguls that is opening on fewer than 500 screens this week. And it's WAY below 500 — Box Office Mojo estimates eight locations. That's a prime number for spectacular PTA, and I daresay this is one of the first fall films that might end up earning some awards nominations later this winter, specifically for lead actress Anne Hathaway. Honestly, $12 in new October Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues isn't too terribly expensive for a PTA pick, and it might be good to get one of those out of the way before the real cutthroat PTA competitions start happening (such as, for example, Defiance vs. Doubt on Dec. 12th). Also, act now so that you can avoid taking something super expensive (Slumdog Millionaire for $23, anyone?) later on. If you're looking for a good way to start out the new season, Rachel's wedding is definitely not a bad option.
Dud: An American Carol — On paper, it doesn't seem bad. David Zucker is directing, so you'd think it can't be THAT bad of a spoof, and the plot is a twist on A Christmas Carol (if you couldn't tell from the title). As is seemingly obligatory with any Zucker project, Leslie Nielsen is involved, and Dennis Hopper and Kelsey Grammer (who, after Swing Vote, are apparently only making movies together now) are also among the cast. Despite those factors, however, An American Carol just looks so lowbrow that it doesn't stand a chance this weekend. It's also being handled by a rookie distributor in Vivendi Entertainment — this is only the third film they've ever touched. A solid 1,600 locations are estimated, but with so many other wide releases coming out this weekend (nearly all of which have better marketing and higher awareness), there's no room for this one. Even as election season is really kicking into gear, I just think this political spoof is dead in the water. The humor is dumbed down from typical Zucker like Airplane! or The Naked Gun, and even the satire comes off almost as propaganda. Avoid this one like Bill O'Reilly avoids political bias. (Wink)
Wild Card: Beverly Hills Chihuahua — Even back in June I said this was one to look out for. Disney movies aimed at a family audience almost always do well, and I knew that, even as much as I shook my head watching the trailer, it'd take some people by surprise when it exceeded expectations. And, lo and behold, some estimates and tracking have it opening with nearly $30 million this weekend. Whoa. It's relegated to wild card status here, however, because I'm sure that the IMDb score will not be very good for your Ultimate slate. The Game Plan managed a respectable 6.2, but that's an anomaly — the 3.2 of College Road Trip is more along the lines of what you should expect. You can hold out hope, though, that maybe it'll hang in there above 5.0, in which case you will have secured a small victory simply because it's not singlehandedly dragging your slate down. Other than the danger of low IMDb, though, I think this is a pretty solid pick, especially in Box Office Moguls leagues.

WEEKEND OF OCT. 10-12
Stud: Quarantine — I realize it may not get such a wide release, maybe a mere 1,500 screens. But it'll cost you a paltry $2 in Ultimate leagues, and even the $6 price tag in Box Office isn't all that steep. Sure, the October/Halloween horror market is virtually monopolized by the Saw franchise, but there's still room for something else to put up respectable numbers in the weeks before Saw V comes out. Last year 30 Days of Night accomplished that feat (it made nearly $40 million), and this year, I say that money goes to Quarantine. It's from Screen Gems, which I've pegged as the studio where Sony sends all their crappy movies that are never screened for critics before opening. They usually get critically lambasted, but that doesn't stop them from making a quick buck. Think Lakeview Terrace, Prom Night, or When a Stranger Calls. (Coincidentally, a lot of horror remakes also end up with Screen Gems, it seems, and Quarantine is no exception — it's based on a Spanish movie titled [REC].) Depending on the screen count, it could go higher than the $23 million Fantasy Moguls projects, but even if it does only make that much, that's a pretty good value for both league types, especially if you spend just $2.
Dud: Happy-Go-Lucky — It's gotten great reviews, and probably has the edge for a PTA win on its opening weekend, but there is no freakin' way it is worth $18 to put on your Ultimate slate. It's never a good idea to put that much coin into a movie that really only helps in one (maybe two, if the IMDb score is particularly stellar) categories. Why not save $6 and take Rachel Getting Married instead? While critics generally enjoy Happy-Go-Lucky, audiences haven't been quite so universally enthralled — some say it has sitcom spinoff potential at most, or find themselves turned off by main character Poppy's incessant giggling. And obviously audiences are the most important factor once the movie is released; if they're polarized, word of mouth could slide in a negative direction, and then it doesn't matter what the critics say. Even though it may grab 5 opening weekend PTA points, I still think you'll find yourself much happier and go-luckier if you keep Happy-Go-Lucky off your slate.
Wild Card: The Express — This one comes to you straight from the inspirational sports movie factory and assembly line. Here's the formula: pick story of courage/luck/overcoming odds/exceptional teamwork or effort, add somewhat bankable actor, package and release. Speaking only of football films, it's worked in recent years for Invincible (Mark Wahlberg), Gridiron Gang (The Rock) and We Are Marshall (Matthew McConaughey). This time around it's Dennis Quaid, who already has an inspirational sports movie factory flick under his belt: Disney ballpark blockbuster The Rookie. (Oddly enough, there are many movie factories. The Jason Statham Factory, for example, cranks out flicks where J-Dizzle must drive fast, glower, fight a lot and do stunts as part of every role. Only the minor details get changed each time out.) I do think The Express, about former Syracuse football standout Ernie Davis, will perform better than the other movie aimed at families that weekend, City of Ember. Releasing it in the middle of football season probably helps too. But might an apparent cookie-cutter "factory" movie be less appreciated now because it's been done so many times before? Or will the competition slow down this Express? It could go either way.

WEEKEND OF OCT. 17-19
Stud: Max Payne — Mark Wahlberg was quoted in an interview a few weeks ago as saying that Max Payne the character could kick Batman the character's ass. That's not the same type of studliness that I'm talking about here, but at the least the comparison to The Dark Knight is still somewhat valid. See, even after director John Moore expressed frustration about the ability to secure a more audience-friendly PG-13 rating (including some colorful language to describe what he called "Batman blowback"), the movie came down with that PG-13 after all. That opens up the possibility for higher numbers than a similar, R-rated video game adaptation from last winter, Hitman ($13 million opening, $39 million total). Undoubtedly the PG-13 helped The Dark Knight as well, even though it was perhaps right on the edge between PG-13 and R. Nobody can really tell whether W. will do well or not, and with the only other wide release on Oct. 17 being Sex Drive, Max Payne has a very good opportunity for a weekend win. I think it can make more than the projected $40 million overall; again, with action movies, a friendlier PG-13 can sometimes work wonders.
Dud: Sex Drive — As I mentioned before, the competition on opening weekend is somewhat scarce, but I'm still not optimistic about this film's chances. It'll make a little bit more than College, but the scenario feels about the same. Ads are flooding the airwaves, and it's even gotten some good reviews, but it's hard to make a successful R-rated comedy without a big name star or producer/director like Judd Apatow or Kevin Smith. Add in the fact that this is from the still-fledgling Summit Entertainment, and you have a recipe for disappointment. They did have a hit earlier this year with Never Back Down, and Twilight will probably be their biggest effort yet, but let's just say I think Sex Drive will need some Viagra to really hit it off with American audiences. Seth Green, hilarious as he looks as a sarcastic Amish man, and James Marsden (as the cool older brother) can only do so much. That said, Fantasy Moguls doesn't expect much out of it either, so it's priced pretty cheaply — $2 in Ultimate leagues and $4 in Box Office. At least there's that consolation — but even so, there are better cheap picks.
Wild Card: Filth and Wisdom — Last week I talked about how certain studios seem to have a lot of PTA success. One of those was IFC, and Filth and Wisdom is distributed by that very company. Though it only has a 5.8 IMDb score as of this writing, it'll run you just $5 in Ultimate leagues, which definitely isn't too much to spend for a few PTA points. It'll have to fend off What Just Happened? and The Secret Life of Bees, as well as perhaps W. and an expansion from Happy-Go-Lucky, but two of those four may go wide. That leaves a gaping window open for some valuable PTA points from a cheap source. Filth and Wisdom marks Madonna's directorial debut, but before you go equating this with husband Guy Ritchie's awful Swept Away, consider that at least the spouse isn't starring this time — he's got his own RockNRolla to worry about. The fact that IFC helped power the virtually unknown Mister Lonely to a few PTA points even against a summer blockbuster (Iron Man) and two higher-profile indie flicks (Son of Rambow and Redbelt) is a very good reason to give Filth and Wisdom a chance.

WEEKEND OF OCT. 24-26
Stud: High School Musical 3: Senior Year — This shouldn't really come as a surprise to anyone. Not because I've talked about it before, but because everyone has seen how good Disney is at creating a sort of fanaticism towards their projects. (Hannah Montana and the Jonas Brothers also come to mind.) The first two High School Musical movies debuted on cable, but were watched by so many that Disney figured, hey, why not make a bunch more money with a third installment by releasing it to theaters? And make a bunch of money it shall. Scary Movie 3 holds the October opening weekend record with $48 million; that might be in reach for HSM3. Even if it doesn't break the record, I'll say the same thing I did with Eagle Eye: It'll be among the Top 5 October weekends of all time (fifth place would require $33.7 million, and that's definitely doable). Reaching the $100 million plateau is virtually guaranteed, and it may even spend two weeks in a row atop the box office. If anything can topple Saw V, this is it.
Dud: Pride and Glory — Much as I appreciate Colin Farrell and Ed Norton, this one is a victim of a postponed release. In most cases, pushing a release date back is a bad sign for the movie's chances, and this is precisely one of those instances. It was supposed to come out in March, but with all of New Line's troubles (and being folded into Warner Bros.) happening back then, it was delayed — and against two high-powered opponents in HSM3 and Saw V, it won't fare much better here than it would have this spring. Watching the trailer, I couldn't help but feel it looked like a drawn out, way longer, more boring version of Righteous Kill, featuring lesser actors. (That almost entirely makes it a victim of timing, because it assuredly was complete before Righteous Kill was, but still.) And Righteous Kill wasn't the greatest movie to begin with. Perhaps New Line is hoping for performance like another cop drama, We Own the Night ($10 million opening, $27 million total), but I think even that's too much to expect.
Wild Card: Saw V — I hate the marketing slogan: "if it's Halloween, it must be Saw." That implies that no matter what, something will get cranked out every year, no matter if it's poor quality. And hey, that might be exactly what's happening here. Still, the Saw franchise has had a, hmm, death grip on the Halloween box office for at least the past three years, and, though this year I think HSM3 will beat it, the fifth installment should perform pretty well in its own right. Fantasy Moguls projects $57 million, which seems about right given that Saw IV made $63 million and each sequel since Saw II has come down with slightly less money than its immediate predecessor. As with HSM3, the fact that the next weekend is pretty bare should help Saw V stay solid, especially considering that Halloween actually falls then (and on a Friday night, no less — expect pretty good business for late night Saw showings). But it might really take a digger — heck, maybe even the fans are finally getting tired of the fact that the series will apparently never end.

WEEKEND OF OCT 31-NOV. 2
Stud: Zack and Miri Make a Porno — I'll admit, I was unconvinced by the teaser trailer. But the red-band trailer that was recently released really changed my opinion. It won't be a breakout hit, but Seth Rogen is enough of a comedy fixture by now that he'll bring in an extra couple million. In addition, Kevin Smith has never really made commercially huge movies — $30 million is his high watermark, for both Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back and Dogma. So temper your expectations slightly — it's no Pineapple Express or Tropic Thunder, but depending on whether or not Saw V encounters the huge second-weekend drop most horror flicks suffer from, Zack and Miri could sneak up as high as second or third place on its opening weekend. It's a little expensive for $8 in Ultimate leagues, but for just $3 in Box Office, snap it up right away. It'll assuredly make more than the $11 million Fantasy Moguls projects — I'll say it even goes over $20 million, approaching the $24 million that Clerks II brought in.
Dud: The Haunting of Molly Hartley — C'mon now. You can't just throw any ol' frightfest out on Halloween and expect it to do well. Saw V has the market nailed down, and it's foolish to try to compete as directly as Molly Hartley is doing. Plus, it's from Freestyle Releasing, who've previously brought you such magical cinematic experiences as Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour (sounds like a nutjob radio show), Dragon Wars and In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale. Yeesh. This movie is going to be so terrible, it's laughable. Take this "memorable quote" from the IMDb page:

[From trailer]
Molly Hartley: [On the phone] Dad? Could you come pick me up?
Father: Are you safe?
Molly Hartley: Yeah. I'm safe.
Father: I'm on my way.
[Hangs up and Molly is attacked instantly]

Wow, couldn't have seen that one coming. It stars nobody you've ever heard of, the director is making his theatrical debut as a director (previous experience stems mostly from being a producer on Everwood), and this is even one of the writers' first screenplay. You can label this a flop from a mile away.
Wild Card: The Other End of the Line — As the only new limited release (at least in the Fantasy Moguls game) on Oct. 31, it has a pretty good chance at some PTA points. There is a possibility of some holdovers (including wide releases HSM3 and Saw V) winning PTA points too, but The Other End of the Line just might sneak in there. It's about an Indian call-center employee who pretends to be American for her customers. She falls in love with one man over the phone, and decides to go to San Francisco to be with him. At $2 in Ultimate leagues, it's definitely not a bad pickup, especially if it can net you some PTA — because that gives you more room for pricier stuff on the rest of your slate. Two things to be wary of, however, both of which are reasons it may not have any success at all: It might be too obscure to really make a dent, and it's handled by the infamous MGM.

That's all for this week; next time I'll take a look through the current season to highlight some movies I think might be recognized when it comes time to give out some of these little statuettes:

(You can almost hear those acceptance speeches already, can't you?)

Until then, good luck!

Mister Informative is already haunting Molly Hartley, and she hasn't even gotten to theaters yet. Call your own October shots tomisterinformative@gmail.com.